If you were GMKA, what is the most you would pay Reinhart to extend?

[nfreeman]

With all the recent talk about Reino, I think one key point that gets overlooked is that if he wants to stay and if the Sabres want to keep him, they'll still need to agree on a contract extension.  That probably needs to happen this summer as he'll be 1 year away from UFA.  If next season starts with no extension in place, it's at least 80% likely that he's gone.

I think most here like Reino enough to keep him.  The cost is a critical question, though, especially with the cap likely to stay flat for at least the next couple of years, and with the Sabres already married to 2 expensive wingers in KO and Skinner. 

Just about everyone here would gladly keep him for 4 years x $5MM, but he's not going to agree to that.  I also think his time here has been sufficiently unenjoyable that he's not going to give the Sabres a hometown discount.  They are going to need to give him a fat long-term deal.

How fat and how long-term should KA go?

Some relevant (IMHO) facts:

- Reino turns 26 in November.

- Over the past 4 seasons, including this one, Reino is 62nd among all NHL forward in total points, and 82nd in points per game (excluding 6 guys who played only a few games).

- The forward with the 62nd-highest average annual salary, Alex DeBrincat, makes $6.4MM per year.  The 82nd-highest-paid forward is Alex Barkov at $5.9MM.

- Other forwards in the top 55-to-65 salary range are:  Laine, Gaudreau, Pastrnak, Stastny, Kreider, Brayden Schenn, Brendan Gallagher, Stepan, Monahan, MacKinnon (!), Radulov, Marchand (!) and Scheifele (!).

- Other forwards in the top 75-to-85 salary range are:  Lucic, KO, Timo Meier, RNH, Ehlers, Brock Nelson, Forsberg, William Karlsson, Huberdeau, Dustin Brown, Cam Atkinson and Brock Boeser.

So, in both groups, there are guys you can fairly say are better than Reino and guys you can fairly say are worse than Reino.

Assuming the Sabres don't trade Eichel, they have Eichel and Skinner on big, long-term contracts.  Dahlin may or may not get one for his 2nd contract -- I think the jury is out on that.  I think teams generally only have room for 4 of those contracts at the most, so the Sabres will need to decide whether they want Reino to have one of those slots.

It's a tough call.  I'd give him $6MM x 6 years, but I don't think he'd agree, and I'd have to think long and hard before going to $7MM x 7 years.

 

[Zamboni]

4 to 6 years at 6.0 to 6.75 per

[triumph_communes]

Reinhart is going to want >7MM for the losing franchise tax 

[pi2000]

I've been a proponent of keeping him as a top 6 winger.

Now I'm looking to trade him over the summer.

Why? He doesn't fit KA's blueprint.

[Radar]

I think it will take 7m for for 6-7 yrs to sign him I think. Would I do that? Tough call. I really like him hope we can get him for more like 6.5m but I'm doubtful.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Radar

[Crusader1969]

He's the kind of guy you want to reward. $7mill seems good for the team and the player 

Re-sign your own and stay away for overpriced UFA's

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 years for 6.75

[dudacek]

40 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I've been a proponent of keeping him as a top 6 winger.

Now I'm looking to trade him over the summer.

Why? He doesn't fit KA's blueprint.

But who will you troll @LGR4GM with? 😜

 

Of the choices available, the highest I'd go is 7X7. I think 6X6 is closer to market value.

He's 25, consistent and durable. Term doesn't scare me at all.

He's also been significantly underpaid over his career.

I have no idea how the flat cap affects this contract.

Recent comparables:

• Bjorkstrand 5X$5.4
• Mantha 4X5.7
• Gallagher 6X6.5 (was pending UFA)
• Guentzel 5X6
• Schmaltz 7X5.8
• Domi 2X5.3

[nfreeman]

@dudacek -- I agree on his durability, but it's worth remembering that he'll turn 26 in November of the first year of the extension.  A 7-year extension means the last 3 years of the contract would be played at ages 30, 31 and 32.

So, if one thinks he's already a slow skater...

 

EDITED to fix sloppy math.

[LabattBlue]

It isn't an option, but I'd go 5 x 6.0 or 5 x 6.5 tops 

[Taro T]

As long as he doesn't get a full MNC, would preferably give him 7 years at ~$6.75 per, but would even go to 8 years if he'd take closer to $6.25 per (realizing that he won't earn whatever contract he gets come years 7 & 8 but will likely exceed that value the 1st 4 or so years of the deal).

Would not expect him to get more than Hall's $8/, and wouldn't go there.  But, if term &/or conditions are favorable would go up to $8MM/per.

And all of this is taking place in a vacuum, the final deals for the other RFA's & McCabe & Ullmark could definitely affect what seems to be a deal they can be willing to accept.

[Curt]

33 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

@dudacek -- I agree on his durability, but it's worth remembering that he'll turn 27 in November of the first year of the extension.  A 7-year extension means the last 3 years of the contract would be played at ages 32, 33 and 34.

So, if one thinks he's already a slow skater...

A 7 year contract would be for his age 26-32 seasons, unless my math skills have degraded further than I think.

[msw2112]

5 x 6 per seems about right.  If he wants a 6th year, you have to give it to him.  That seems like a lot when he's 33 years old, but, on the other hand, that many years down the road $6M may be a bargain for a top 6 forward.

[nfreeman]

10 minutes ago, Curt said:

A 7 year contract would be for his age 26-32 seasons, unless my math skills have degraded further than I think.

Ooooooohhh.  You're right.  I was thinking that he's under contract for one more year, but that is incorrect -- he's an RFA for one more year, but the extension would start when he turns 26, and his last season would start when he turns 32.  I'll edit my post upthread.

[IKnowPhysics]

Same as Nylander's AAV with identical 0.74P/GP over the last three seasons, plus a bump for cap growth and not making what Nylander made this season, then plus or minus some margin: $7M +/- $0.3M at 7-8 years, NMC after three years.

[Taro T]

45 minutes ago, Curt said:

A 7 year contract would be for his age 26-32 seasons, unless my math skills have degraded further than I think.

Thanks for that.  That makes a 7 year (& even an 8 year deal) more palatable.

1 tough thing about a 5 year deal is both Eichel & Reinhart would have free agency available in the same off-season.  The possibility of a repeat of 7/1/7 makes that term almost as worrisome as a 1 year deal.

[Marvin]

I am less afraid of the 7th year or even an 8th than most are here.  Sam's game is headier than most; thus, I think he has a longer shelf life as a productive player until potentially his mid 30's.  Yes, he may hit a wall sooner, but I don't think so.

[Thorny]

Voted 7 x 7

I could see him getting a 5 year deal but obviously not at 5 per. 

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

I am less afraid of the 7th year or even an 8th than most are here.  Sam's game is headier than most; thus, I think he has a longer shelf life as a productive player until potentially his mid 30's.  Yes, he may hit a wall sooner, but I don't think so.

This.

I'm not one who thinks that Sam is slow, but his game has little to do with the speed of his feet and he takes great care of himself.

Barring a debilitating injury he will be fine at 32.

[thewookie1]

6x7mil would be my target to be honest.

I'm not afraid of his later years because speed has nothing to do with his skills. He doesn't rely on having quick skating in order to be the player he is. And as @dudacekmentions, barring any catastrophic knee or like-injury; he shouldn't lose much speed, if any, by age 32. 

[Claude Balls]

Don't want nothing more than five years. Who knows where his game goes.

[Zamboni]

33 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This.

I'm not one who thinks that Sam is slow, but his game has little to do with the speed of his feet and he takes great care of himself.

Barring a debilitating injury he will be fine at 32.

Yea I agree.
It’s funny how out of one side of a persons mouth they rag on Reinhart fornot being a “physical” player. But yet, out of the other side of their mouth, they admire or give accolades to players who have played over 1,200 games in the league. And more times than not, they aren’t overly physical players. And that’s exactly the reason they lasted over 1,200 games 😂. Reinharts style is perfect if you want to last over 1,200 games. Not to mention him taking care of himself and always training like most of the players have who reach that milestone.

[tom webster]

Most people feel the cap will remain flat for two or three years. He isn’t touching $7M

[Norcal]

I'd like to lock him up for 5×6 but if I had to I'd do 6×6. 

[Andrew Amerk]

However many years he wants x 6.5