GASabresIUFAN

Ist rd picks according to Scott Cullen's research while he was at TSN has picks 6-10 averaging at 74% having NHL careers. Picks 11-30 are about 60%, except picks 21-25 which hit at a surprising 72%. Picks 31-75 range from 26-32% depending on where selected. The overall math says we should get 5 regular players out of the current draftees in our system. From 2009-2013, they following % of players according to Hockeydb.com have appeared in the NHL from each draft, 55.2, 50.5, 59.2, 51.2, & 48.3. I've stopped at 2014 because players from that draft are still debuting in the NHL like Victor Olofsson and probably Jonas Johansson later this year and that year stands currently at 41%. With the math saying if we were just average drafters we should get 5 regulars from the 18 prospects listed above and based on historical numbers about 50% of those prospect should make an appearance in the NHL. I said 4 regulars in Cozens, UPL, Pekar and Samuelsson and 4 guys l think have a good shot in Routsalainen, Johnson, Laaksonen and Portillo. Those predictions are just slight below historical average drafting stats. I also didn't say that all 8 will make the NHL at the same time. Portillo for example is a young raw but talented goalie. It has taken Johansson 4 plus seasons to establish himself as a legit goaltending prospect with a chance at getting a callup in year 5. It took Ullmark 6 seasons post draft to make the NHL.

Except what coach on a team desperate for scoring doesn’t attempt to try different line combos on his top 2 lines to see if he can get two scoring lines instead of one? Why isn’t Skinner, with VO out, given a chance on Jack’s wing? Why hasn’t Reinhart been moved to try to get Skinner going if RK doesn’t want Skinner with Jack? Why hasn’t MoJo been moved to wing? ‘Then again why hasn’t Jbot found at least one competent center to play behind Jack?

I didn’t say top 6 forwards, or NHL standouts, I said play in the NHL eventually. That means they may becomes stars or long-term players but that also means there will be some AAAA players or guys that get just a cup of coffee. Consider I listed 18 players, is asking 8 of them to eventually make the NHL to outlandish? That said I have no doubt that Cozens, Pekar, UPL and Samuelsson will become NHL regulars. The next 4, Routsalainen, Johnson, Laaksonen and Portillo have given significant indications that they are developing toward an NHL career such as playing well in International Tournaments or playing well in elite leagues around the world at a young age. We’ll get a better idea about Laaksonen, Davidsson, Samuelsson, Pekar and Routsalainen when they join the Amerks next season. Portillo and Johnson will continue in college.

Just checked where Wheeler of the Athletic is in his countdown of the team’s pipelines. He is up to 17 and interestingly no Sabres yet. From Pronman’s article we know that Cozens and UPL are very highly thought of, but I’m curious how they feel about the other guys in our system guys like Laaksonen, Samuelsson, Johnson, Pekar, Davidsson, Routsalainen and Weissbach. Wheeler said that teams with greater depth in their system tended to rank higher. I’m curious how far up the ladder we are in his opinion. I see only 15/16 legit prospects in our pipeline, I’m now under the impression he sees more, which would be great news. Right now we have 21 players that would qualify for his list in general terms. However I doubt he ranks Mittelstadt, Thompson and Asplund do to their NHL experience although Asplund, who is back in the AHL could be ranked. Jokiharju would have also qualified before the season started but is now an NHL fixture. Borgen and Johansson have also aged out of his list although I think both are still legit prospects. That leaves 18 players, not including Asplund, and only 14 of which I think could eventually play in the NHL. Here is my guess of how he ranks them Cozens UPL Samuelsson Routsalainen Johnson Laaksonen Pekar Portillo Bryson Weissbach Davidsson Fitzgerald Huglen Rousek Cronholm Kukkonen Cederqvist Worge-Kreu I think our top 8 all play in the NHL eventually. Portillo is a goalie and likely has a long development curve but that has worked for Ullmark and Johansson and with UPL in the system we have time to wait for him. Pekar IMHO becomes a 3rd line agitator with 2-3 years. The 3 D should become NHLers with Laaksonen the least likely, but they might end up in other organizations as trade bait to accomplish other goals. Right now I doubt the last 6 ever play in the NHL, but Huglen and Rousek have a chance.

I was wondering the same thing as first, but he is referring to Sabres D man Ryan Johnson who is learning the ropes in his first collegiate season. Normally when I see UofM I think Michigan and 23 there isn't a prospect.

I'm not sure how Vanessa and the 3 kids move forward from this. I feel so awful that the newborn will never know her father, a man who by all accounts had turned his life around and was a great dad. Just awful and so unnecessary.

Awful.

Shock ABC got it wrong.

I can’t find that anywhere else.

I’m watching IU vs Maryland on CBS and they haven’t said a work about Kobe. I’m really surprised.

Yep. 4 kids

Isn’t it up to GM’s to make better deals? Bogo was a terrible deal from the day it was signed, but the dumb GM who gave out the contract was bailed out by a worse GM who traded quality assets for the oft injured player. Is it really a shock that the guy has played less then 50% of his games here. Remember TM gave up 1st rd picks and top prospects (aka retail prices) to acquire 2 injured players (Lehner and Kane) and Bogo who had a significant injury history (aka damaged goods).

While I disagree with @PerreaultForever ‘s opinion on Reinhart or that Konecny is a better player, Konecny is having a breakout year and has very good metrics. That said he plays zero PK minutes and this is his first season where he is even close to Reinhart’s production. Honestly he is a step down from Reinhart, but his growth as a player makes it closer then I originally thought.

You said Montour is a lousy D. If that is true how is he going to get us a top 6 center? By the way, I disagree that Montour is a lousy D. I do agree that he is available in the right deal.

LOL, It's not unbridled optimism, it's just the other side of the coin from people like yourselves that are so deep seeded in the failures of the past. It's also an opinion based on prospect development stats and how similar players have developed in the past. We have 4 good D. We have 4 top 6 forwards. @freester you say Mitts and Thompson will never be NHL players. This is simply an ignorant statement. It isn't based on anything other then seeing two guys rushed to the NHL and then get sent down. These guys were 1st rd picks for a reason and are 21 and 22 years old respectively. This thread is about projecting out 3 years when these guys are 24 and 25. I'm sorry but I look at guys like Pommers, JP Dumont, and Danny Briere who didn't have straight line development curves and understand that many talented players mature at different rates. Remember that VO is a 24 year old rookie. I suggest finding Scott Cullen's research on draft picks and their eventual position in the NHL before blindly saying they'll never be NHLers. The math is on my side, especially with Mitts. It's also wrong to say that Asplund, who is holding his own as an NHL rookie, will never be anything other then a 4th line player. This opinion is based on what exactly, 28 NHL games? Can you say small sample size. While I might agree that his offensive upside may be limited to 40 points in the NHL, I've watched this kid take half a season to adjust to the speed and rink size in NA last season with almost no production and them blossom in the second half of last year, carry that good play into this season and earn an extended callup to the NHL. Remember TM traded up to get this kid because he had a 1st rd grade on his talent. One thing we know already is that he is a solid defensive forward which is something our organization needs. Is it really so optimistic to say that a 22 year old kid who is doing OK in his first NHL season will grow over the next 3 years into a bigger role on the team? Give me a break. I think even the great pessimists here can agree that Cozens is the real deal and will be a 2nd line forward within 3 years. So what about Pekar? Yes he is a 4th rd pick and we have seen guys like Bailey and Baptiste with better numbers in the CHL never develop into anything. All that is true. We also have seen players with worse numbers in the CHL become effective NHLers. Guys like Gaustad, Kaleta, Marcus Foligno, and Chris Thorburn. What do these guys all have in common? Is that they played physical hockey. Pekar plays that game as well, but he is significantly faster and honestly more talented then the guys mentioned. While he has along way to go, I don't think it is really to hard to imagine 2-3 years from now when he is 22-23 that he becomes an NHL regular and carves out a bottom six forward slot with the Sabres. Bottomline: With 4 top 6 forwards already here, is it really to far fetched to ask 5 forwards already in our system including 2 top 10 picks (ages 19 & 21), another 1st rd pick (age 22), a high 2nd rd pick currently in the NHL (age 22) and a 4th rd pick (age 19) to take 5 of the remaining 8 forward slots within the next 3 years? I don't think so. OK, so what about our other forward prospects? Guys like Oglevie (24), Davidsson (21), Routsalainen (22), Weissbach (21), Rousek, Huglen etc.... I agree these guys are a bunch of who knows, but I think Weissbach (3g 15a for 18 pts in 22 NCAA games) and Routsalainen (12g -17a for 29pts in 28 SM-liiga games) could surprise us and eventually become NHL players. Routsalainen really intrigues me because he is already in his 5th season in the top Finnish league and has improved each season. He seems to be on a nearly identical development path as VO, who came to NA after 5 SweHL seasons. Ultimately if any of the other forwards listed become NHLers that is a bonus. However even if these guys all wash out, we are only now asking Jbot to find 3 forwards to add depth to the roster. That isn't a tall task. Guys like Lazar, Girgensons and Larsson are all young enough and cheap enough and effective enough to round out a roster. Need more scoring? Scoring wingers can be found as long as we have the top 3 centers figured out. My educated guess is Jack and Dylan will be a excellent 1-2 punch within 3 years. As I've said a million times, Jbot needs to find someone to bridge the gap until Cozens is fully ready. I've asked Jbot in the last few years to go get a JT Miller or Adam Henrique (for example) as they are guys who can play the 2C for a few years and then easily transition to the 3C in the final years of their contracts. I'm hoping Ana will trade Henrique this deadline.