dudacek

When did Ruff say this? Actions matter; he played Byram 23 minutes a night, almost 19 of that at ES and much of that against the other team's best. The bold is a matter of degree and opinion, supported without much context, and mostly by your insistence on leaning into the xG stats. In terms of real goals, he is a positive player, despite playing tough minutes on a crappy team. Here is some context: Byram 52.0% GF% Seider 49.7% Faber 48.4% Reilly 48.4% Sergachev 47.7% Dobson 46.3% Luke Hughes 46.5% Pesce 45.7% Karlsson 44.9 Letang 44.7% Sanderson 44.1% Rasmus Andersson 37.9% Liabilities every single one of them? Redundant on Buffalo? Going down the stretch, they separated Dahlin and Byram. Probably in part to see what Byram did without Dahlin. With Connor Clifton as his main partner over the final 15 games, Byram had a 53.1% gF%, still playing 19 ES minutes a night. Does none of this mean anything?

The line combo tool on Moneypuck is fun to play with but sure drove home to me how much time I've wasted arguing about depth charts and debating line combos. The Sabres played close to 5,000 minutes of hockey this year. Their most common line combo (Tuch Thompson Peterka) played 188 minutes together. I don't think I've ever once seen a Krebs/Benson line combo pitched, yet Peyton is one of Zach's most frequent linemates. Once the puck drops, those charts might as well be tossed out the window. They certainly don't reflect what actually happens over the course of a season. Just another reminder of what a chaotic game hockey is.

Here’s something I haven’t seen posted: Benson/Thompson/Kulich was the 3rd most-common line combo used by the Sabres this year: 159.1 minutes. They scored 10 goals and allowed 8. Their xG% was 57.7 (4th on the team). And their Corsi was 50.9% (9th) Benson’s next most common were: Krebs and Quinn 11th, 91 minutes 2 for, 2 against, xG% 67.7 (1st), Corsi 62.8% (1st) Cozens and Quinn 14th, 68.4 minutes, 2 for, 1 against, xG% 45.3 (12th), Corsi 53.4% (6th) Kulich and Krebs 16th, 57.7 minutes, 3 for, 2 against, xG% 61.2 (2nd), Corsi 58.1% (2nd) One thing this doesn’t show you is the matchups. I’d bet good money he was playing against tougher opponents with Thompson than when he was with Krebs. My biggest takeaway is that whatever line he’s on seems to win, regardless of what metric you use. (I only used the 20 lines that played at least 50 minutes together, all numbers courtesy of Moneypuck)

You know what I love about expected goals? The way it sometimes gives you wonderfully un-expected stats? Stats like “the best line iced by the Sabres this year was the dominating Benson/Krebs/Malenstyn combo” - a jaw-dropping 85.7%! I can’t understand why stupid Lindy only kept them together for 17 minutes. My point is that I think it’s a little dangerous to lean too hard into just these numbers. Benson is incredibly good at creating and preventing expected goals. He’s less good with the actual ones. And he’s 19 and very much a work in progress.

Here’s the other thing about Byram: he’s 23 years old and hasnt even played 250 games yet. He’s got elite feet, quick hands and he competes. I will be stunned if he does not get much better in his own zone as he grows from 22 to 26. Virtually all defencemen of his pedigree do. He’s going to play in the top 4 of whatever NHL team he’s on for the next 10 or 12 years and people are handwaving that away because his xG% is below 50% away from Rasmus Dahlin on the fricking Buffalo Sabres? While ignoring the fact that his actual gF% is well over 50%? Playing 23 minutes a night? At 23? On the fricking Buffalo Sabres? Do people even look at the numbers of guys like Jake Sanderson and Moritz Seider, considered untouchable studs by their teams? There’s not many NHL defencemen of his age and experience doing the kind of hard minutes Byram did this year, but these are two of them. I don’t think Byram is some untouchable star in waiting, but I do think he is a talent, who played better two-way hockey this year, and was more important to the Sabres, than some people are willing to recognize. He’s not a spare part or a liability. And he still has more to give. You only trade him for what he’s actually worth.

Absolutely. I’ve always thought it weird that everyone who wants to trade Byram says “you’ll have to pay him as a 1st pairing defenceman and he’s not!” He’s coming off a career-high 38 points and has never before hit 30. He’s got middling metrics. He’s 2 years away from unrestricted free agency. Why would you have to pay him like a first-pairing defenceman?

From all the reading I’ve done, I blame that more on Pegula than Botterill. But one thing that doesn’t ever get talked about is how Eichel’s dissatisfaction with the franchise was allowed to fester during Jason’s reign of “building” by plodding along and adding all the Wayne Simmonds and Jimmy Vesey’s he could find. Or how he set the table for the great free agent exodus of 2021 by failing to tie up any of the worthwhile pieces he had like Reinhart, Montour, McCabe and Ullmark. I mean Adams shares the blame on that fully, and COVID and Pegula played a role for both, but I’ve always wondered, did Botterill even care about having a core?

It is hard to believe that as bad as Kevyn Adams tenure as GM has been, that Seattle has managed to hire someone with an even worse record. Adams record as Sabres GM translates to 78 points per 82 games Jason Botterill’s record over three seasons translates to 72 points per 82 games. His best season falls kinda in between the two slogs we just finished and it took him 3 years to match the 78-point team that got the abysmal Tim Murray fired. His team-building vision consisted almost entirely of trading draft picks for bottom-six wingers and right-handed defencemen while avoiding long-term contracts unless Terry forced one on him. This was a guy who once traded Marco Scandella for a 4th round pick only to see Scandella flipped for a 2nd, not even 2 months later. Is this what happens when it has to be “someone with GM experience”? Poor Seattle.

I was kinda interested in keeping together the most effective defence pair in the NHL, but I know somehow your eyes will keep skipping over that part 😉 Constantly repeating "can't play a lick of defence" still hasn't changed that fact.

The contract I would be dumping to make room for him is Samuelsson’s, and it’s Samuelsson’s role he’s be taking.

Maybe. That is based on his pedigree, availability, Leone IDing him as his go-to shutdown defender this year, and an assumption a full year in the minors including a playoff run this spring has advanced his game. Im expecting him to be able to contribute a similar “safe” game to what we’ve seen from Bernard-Docker and am comfortable with Bernard-Docker as my D6 if Johnson falters. Leaning in to what @PerreaultForever has been preaching, giving Johnson a shot at this age and point of his career is what a normal team would,do. I would have a meltdown a young @LGR4GM would be proud of if they traded Power in a deal where the key piece coming back was Ryan Pulock. He strikes me as the type of guy who usually gets traded at the deadline for a late first and my interest in him does not go beyond that price point. What do you mean by “because of the cost”, did you mean cap space? And why do you think his value is so high when his stat line and contract this year look a lot like Mattias Samuelsson’s?

My ideal somewhat possible D next year would be: Byram Dahlin Power (someone like Brett Pesce) Ryan Johnson (someone like an older Will Borgen) Spare: Bernard-Docker Prospect call-up: Novikov

I see the name Ryan Pulock being tossed around as potentially available RHD. The analytics say he had a bad season last year with the Islanders and he has 5 years left on a $6M cap hit. The concept of him is "30-year-old 220-pound 2nd-pairing vet who skates well, kills penalties, can move the puck and is responsible in his own zone". Can't say I'd be confident in providing a current scouting report, but he certainly fits the profile of what we need and would be available for cap space and futures. Potential target? Wonder if they'd take Mule?

I think the fact that both Byram and Peterka are eligible puts the Sabres in position where they could be forced into a course of action, rather than able to dictate it. They have no interest in more picks if they don’t match, and will be unable to trade the player if they do. Which would effectively eat up a large portion of their cap space and handcuff them in terms of what they can do in the off-season. Unless they are truly intent on running it back and keeping both regardless of the cost, it really seems that it’s in their best interest to sign or trade at least one of them before July 1 in order to retain some control and freedom to exercise other moves after July 1.