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Over/under 77.5 points


SDS
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12 minutes ago, SDS said:

According to vegasinsider.com. Last season we had 75 points. I guess I am optimistic and I would take the over on this one.

The over is easy money. Vegas odds aren't so much predictions as reflections of what bettors think. Two seasons ago I won so many bets on the Bills because Vegas, aka the bettors, still saw Allen as a draft bust.

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This should be an easy over in theory. We'd have ended up around 82+ points last season if Dell and Subban never went between the pipes. Of course, we'd have easily made the playoffs if Michael Houser played all 82 games, but that's a different story.

If Comrie pans out to just average/slightly below average NHL goaltending across 40 games, Anderson plays 25 at below-average goaltending, and UPL takes the rest, Buffalo hits the over without any added impact from Quinn or Peterka (or addition by subtraction: Cody Eakins). Not to mention Buffalo has Krebs and Tuch for the full season now and a hopefully a healthy Casey Mittelstadt. On defense, we're getting full seasons from Samuelsson and Power and we've added Ilya Lyubushkin. 

The team has far more depth this year as well. Consider this, by game 4 in October of last year, we had a fourth line (because we had an injured Cody Eakin and Mitts) of the following:

Hayden - Ruotsalainen - Caggiula

This is with Bjork playing on the third line with Girgs and Okposo. 

None of Eakin, Bjork, Hayden, Ruotsalainen, or Caggiula would (or will in Bjork's case) make the roster this year out of camp. In the event we lost two players, none of those would even be in line to immediately slot into the NHL. Murray and Sheahan are both better proven 4th line replacements than any of those from last year and that's not even talking about unproven players like Rousek, Weissbach, or Pekar. Not to mention our new AHL players of Rosen, Kisakov, Cederqvist and Kulich.

Our defensive pairings were (Joki was injured) as follows:

Dahlin - Butcher 

Bryson - Miller

Hagg - Pysyk

Just looking at that, Butcher is not a first pairing defenseman--although, neither is Joki who he replaced--and both Hagg and Pysyk are now on sub-$1m contracts to play 7th D roles. Miller will be a bubble second pairing defenseman in Dallas and was underrated last season, but he missed a large chunk due to injury and then being a healthy scratch. We've graduated Samuelsson (who has proven he can play in the top line with Dahlin), added Ilya Lyubushkin (who is more physical and a better shot blocker than Colin Miller), and will be getting a full season of Owen Power.

That leaves us with Dahlin, Joki, and Bryson from the start of last season, but with the addition of Samuelsson, Fitzgerald, Lybushkin, and Power. We also brought in Clague, Davies, and Priskie on show-me contracts for the 8th man role in the event of injury and we still have a pretty big unknown in Pilut's role now that he's returned and isn't playing under the Hockey Terrorist.

It's hard to believe this team is going to finish worse than only 2.5 points better than last season. I realize there is a certain amount of hopium in this, but the Sabres were 32-39-11 last season and that team did not have the talent or depth the team has this year. Not to mention the team cohesion/unity/whatever we saw at the end of the season.

If the Sabres hit the under, I will burn an effigy of Don Granato and Kevyn Adams.

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I heard this on WGR and for the first time was motivated to actually put money down.

I looked at 3 different sites and saw a 13 to 15% house take on bets (-113 to -115). Are they all that high? I assumed it would be 5% ballpark. 

Seeing that makes me not want to bet just out of principle. How does anyone think they can beat the house with that kind of markup?!

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I think this one is easy.  How about over or under 90 points if we expect to see improvement this season?  I'll predict under at 88 but would love to be wrong.  The teams at the top might not be ready to give up a playoff spot this season but they will definitely lose some of their points to the Sabres and other improving teams.

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3 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I heard this on WGR and for the first time was motivated to actually put money down.

I looked at 3 different sites and saw a 13 to 15% house take on bets (-113 to -115). Are they all that high? I assumed it would be 5% ballpark. 

Seeing that makes me not want to bet just out of principle. How does anyone think they can beat the house with that kind of markup?!

Sabres are +2500 for a 100 pt season on DraftKings.

Tage Thompson is -115 for 31.5 goals.

MGM has Sabres +475 to reach 90 pts

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2 hours ago, Curt said:

Sabres are +2500 for a 100 pt season on DraftKings.

Tage Thompson is -115 for 31.5 goals.

MGM has Sabres +475 to reach 90 pts

100 points would need all the stars aligning.

90 is doable if Comrie is a legit starter & the team stays healthy.

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