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Over/under 77.5 points


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On 9/14/2022 at 9:10 AM, LGR4GM said:

I see no way the Sabres are worse than Montreal, Seattle, Arizona, Philly, Chicago, Islanders, and the RedWings (I don't believe in the redwings). Toss in Anaheim, San Jose, and Winnipeg as other teams I think we will be better than. 

Two words. Goal. Tending.

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14 hours ago, Contempt said:

Two words. Goal. Tending.

We don't know how Cromrie will respond, and UPL did well in his breif stint when called up. 

Right now we are a wildcard at G.. but I believe we are better than last year as long as we stay healthy at G.

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Sabres had a 238 GF last season.  I can see them getting that up a bit to 246-250.

It's going to be all on the D/GK (I do mean the teams complete D work) to get the 290 GA number lower to improve on points for the season.

So, if they can get that GA number down, 85 points is not unreasonable.  Of course, as a fan, I want to see them at least in the hunt of a playoff spot in the beginning of April.  You never know, maybe the Bruins and/or the Penguins "age out" this season.  Hope springs eternal.

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Roger Murdock: Flight 2-0-9er, you are cleared for take-off.
Captain Oveur: Roger!
Roger Murdock: Huh?
Tower: L.A. departure frequency, 123 point 9’er.
Captain Oveur: Roger!
Roger Murdock: Huh?
Victor Basta: Request vector, over.
Captain Oveur: What?
Tower: Flight 2-0-9er cleared for vector 324.
Roger Murdock: We have clearance, Clarence.
Captain Oveur: Roger, Roger. What’s our vector, Victor?
Tower: Tower’s radio clearance, over!
Captain Oveur: That’s Clarence Oveur. Over.
Tower: Over.
Captain Oveur: Roger.
Roger Murdock: Huh?
Tower voice: Roger, over!
Roger Murdock: What?
Captain Oveur: Huh?
Victor Basta: Who?

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On 9/16/2022 at 3:16 PM, Cheektorado said:

Sabres had a 238 GF last season.  I can see them getting that up a bit to 246-250.

It's going to be all on the D/GK (I do mean the teams complete D work) to get the 290 GA number lower to improve on points for the season.

So, if they can get that GA number down, 85 points is not unreasonable.  Of course, as a fan, I want to see them at least in the hunt of a playoff spot in the beginning of April.  You never know, maybe the Bruins and/or the Penguins "age out" this season.  Hope springs eternal.

I think it's going to be significantly higher than that.

With the new additions after the Eichel trade from March 1st on, they were averaging well over 3 goals a game, at 3.14 goals per game. Prior to that they were dreadful, averaging 2.61 goals per game, more than a half goal per game difference.

That really didn't include Power as he only played 8 games and looked great for them as well.

I think they are going to be somewhere in the 280-290 range.

This team can score goals now and as they build chemistry and add more to the skill level with Quinn and likely JPP, I think they will become more of an offensive threat.

This is the year the Sabres take a big step towards playoff contention IMO. I think they barely miss it but will be in the running up until maybe the last few weeks of the season.

Edited by matter2003
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25 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Vegas sure knows what they're doing. I think right at this mark or below is where I'm at. There will be a lot of young players in the lineup and a brand new goalie. I'll say below by 1 point but next year is the year we finally make playoffs.

I don't understand how you watch them play at 103 point pace once Tuch, Krebs and the injured guys came back over the last two months of the year, we should have upgraded goaltending, now have Powers all year instead of the last 8 games, and are adding Quinn and possibly JPP to the lineup and see them barely better than last year...

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MGM updated the Sabres from -115 either way, to -125 for the over and -105 for the under. 

Same for Carolina at 102.5 points

Chicago went the other way at 67.5 points (-105 for over, -125 for under)

Kraken at 81.5 points are now -125 over, 100 for under.

All the rest of the teams are still -115 either way.  

Interesting to see. And so Seattle is predicted to have 4 more points than Buffalo and a 21 point improvement over last year? Seems off.

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On 9/18/2022 at 11:11 AM, matter2003 said:

I don't understand how you watch them play at 103 point pace once Tuch, Krebs and the injured guys came back over the last two months of the year, we should have upgraded goaltending, now have Powers all year instead of the last 8 games, and are adding Quinn and possibly JPP to the lineup and see them barely better than last year...

For me they’re a season away, maybe a bit longer if Thompson is a 1 hit wonder. Unfortunately our magical run was when the season was lost and there was nothing to lose but having Power, Peterka, Quinn and Tuch should definitely help. Comrie is probably a huge X factor in all this but there is such a small sample size. Of course if I’m wrong I’d be ecstatic.

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9 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

For me they’re a season away, maybe a bit longer if Thompson is a 1 hit wonder. Unfortunately our magical run was when the season was lost and there was nothing to lose but having Power, Peterka, Quinn and Tuch should definitely help. Comrie is probably a huge X factor in all this but there is such a small sample size. Of course if I’m wrong I’d be ecstatic.

I think we are a season away from the playoffs also...but I think we are in the upper 80s point wise this year...not in, but a major push forward.

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What do WE want to set the over/under at, for success? It doesn’t seem the appetite is strong for making the playoffs to be the baseline. 90 points? 85 points? 

Exceeding 81 has got to be the lowest baseline conceivable for arguable success, me thinks. Can’t see an argument for Adams taking 3 seasons to end up failing to field a team that matches/exceeds Murray’s Eichel-rookie-year, 81 point finish from 2015/2016. 

Exceeding it would also only be nhl .500, which is below average.

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21 minutes ago, Thorny said:

What do WE want to set the over/under at, for success? It doesn’t seem the appetite is strong for making the playoffs to be the baseline. 90 points? 85 points? 

Exceeding 81 has got to be the lowest baseline conceivable for arguable success, me thinks. Can’t see an argument for Adams taking 3 seasons to end up failing to field a team that matches/exceeds Murray’s Eichel-rookie-year, 81 point finish from 2015/2016. 

Exceeding it would also only be nhl .500, which is below average.

Personally would set it at 91.5.  They get to 92 points, they can be kicking themselves all off season how those two 3 game losing streaks cost them the playoffs.  And all it takes beyond that is winning 1 game they'd otherwise have lost in regulation every other month to sneak into the dance.

If they can legitimately play at a 92 point pace, find 1 extra win in October, December, February, & April and they're in the playoffs or the very 1st team to miss the playoffs with a 0.600+ record in at least 50 years.

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16 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Personally would set it at 91.5.  They get to 92 points, they can be kicking themselves all off season how those two 3 game losing streaks cost them the playoffs.  And all it takes beyond that is winning 1 game they'd otherwise have lost in regulation every other month to sneak into the dance.

If they can legitimately play at a 92 point pace, find 1 extra win in October, December, February, & April and they're in the playoffs or the very 1st team to miss the playoffs with a 0.600+ record in at least 50 years.

Oh ya, with those 4 extra wins they’d be sitting at 100, I don’t think a team has ever missed with that many, no?

- - - 

13 teams had 100 points last year?! 41% of the league. Every playoff seed in the East?

Does 100 mean less than it used to? Or just an anomaly? 

Edited by Thorny
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On 9/18/2022 at 10:43 AM, GoPuckYourself said:

Vegas sure knows what they're doing. I think right at this mark or below is where I'm at. There will be a lot of young players in the lineup and a brand new goalie. I'll say below by 1 point but next year is the year we finally make playoffs.

Like I said earlier, Vegas knows what bettors think, not what teams will do. If enough people think like you and bet the under, the line stays at 77.5.  

On 9/18/2022 at 10:10 PM, Getpucksdeep said:

MGM updated the Sabres from -115 either way, to -125 for the over and -105 for the under. 

Same for Carolina at 102.5 points

Chicago went the other way at 67.5 points (-105 for over, -125 for under)

Kraken at 81.5 points are now -125 over, 100 for under.

All the rest of the teams are still -115 either way.  

Interesting to see. And so Seattle is predicted to have 4 more points than Buffalo and a 21 point improvement over last year? Seems off.

So they are reducing the payout for the over because too much money is going there.

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Honestly, how do you think the Sabres stack up?

Core

Boston: Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak, McAvoy, Lindholm, (5) Montgomery

Buffalo: Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Dahlin, (4) Granato

Detroit: Larkin, Vrana, Bertuzzi, Seider, (4) Lalonde

Florida: Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Ekblad, (4) Maurice

Montreal: Suzuki, Caufield, Anderson (3) St.Louis

Ottawa: Tkachuk, Stutzle, Norris, Debrincat, Giroux, Chabot (6) Smith

Tampa: Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Cirelli, Hedman, Vasilevsky (6) Cooper

Toronto: Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Reilly (5) Keefe

 

Supporting cast

Boston: Hall, Krecji, Zacha, Debrusk, Smith, Coyle, Carlo, Grelczyk, Ullmark Swayman (10)

Buffalo: Olofsson, Okposo, Mittelstadt, Cozens, Krebs, Asplund, Power, Jokiharju, Samuelsson, Lyubushkin, Comrie, Anderson (12)

Detroit: Raymond, Copp, Perron, Kubalik, Fabbri, Suter, Chiarot, Hronek, Maatta, Husso, Njedeljkovic (11)

Florida: Bennett, Verhaege, Duclair, Lundell, Hornqvist, Forsling, Montour, Gudas, Bobrovsky, Knight (10)

Montreal: Dvorak, Dach, Gallagher, Hoffman, Dadynov, Drouin, Matheson, Edmunson, Savard, Allen (10)

Ottawa: Batherson, Formenton, Joseph, Zub, Forsberg, Talbot (6)

Tampa: Killorn, Paul, Colton, Hagel, Namestnikov, Sergachev, Cernak (6)

Toronto: Bunting, Kerfoot, Jarnkrok, Engvall, Brodie, Muzzin, Murray, Samsonov (8)

 

Depth/role players

Boston: Foligno, Frederic, Nosek, Clifton, Fobert, Reilly, Zboril (7)

Buffalo: Girgensons, Hinostroza, Quinn, Peterka, Sheahan, Bjork, Bryson, Pilut, Fitzpatrick, Lukkonnen (10)

Detroit: Zadina, Erne, Rasmussen, Sundqvist, Veleno, Smith, Berggren, Eidvinsson, Lindstrom, Hagg, Pysyk, Oesterle (12)

Florida: Cousins, Lomberg, Tierney, Luostarinen, Balcers, Staal, Del Zotto, Carlson (8)

Montreal: Pitlick, Byron, Slavkovsky, Evans, Armia, Guhle, Barron, Harris, Wideman, Montembeault (10)

Ottawa: Gambrell, Watson, Pinto, Grieg, Kelly, Katelic, Sanderson, Hamonic, Holden, Zaitsev, Bernard-Docker (11)

Tampa: Maroon, Bellemare, Barre-Boulet, Perry, Bogosian, Cole, Foote, Myers, Fleury, Elliott (10)

Toronto: Kampf, Clifford, Robertson, Gaudette, Aubel-Kabel, Simmonds, Giordano, Liljegren, Holl, Sandin, Benn (11)

Edited by dudacek
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On 9/16/2022 at 3:16 PM, Cheektorado said:

Sabres had a 238 GF last season.  I can see them getting that up a bit to 246-250.

It's going to be all on the D/GK (I do mean the teams complete D work) to get the 290 GA number lower to improve on points for the season.

So, if they can get that GA number down, 85 points is not unreasonable.  Of course, as a fan, I want to see them at least in the hunt of a playoff spot in the beginning of April.  You never know, maybe the Bruins and/or the Penguins "age out" this season.  Hope springs eternal.

I have us in the 260s not 290s.

This is what I posted in the "half empty" thread

Quote

 

Here is a quick team goal projection

top scorers - TNT 28, Skinner 27, VO 24, Tuch 23, Cozens 21

Potential for more - Mitts 18, Quinn 17

Solid contributions - KO 15, Krebs 14, JJP 13, Asplund 13

Depth - Z 9, Vinnie 9

Others - 8 (last season Caggulia, Murray, R2, and Jankowski gave us 74 games and 8 goals). With depth of Bjork, Malone, Murray, Biro and others, I don’t think 8 goals is an unreasonable guess.

Defense 26 - Dahlin 11, Power 8 and 7 from everyone else. (We had 26 goals by D last year)

That’s 265 goals up from 232 last season.  This may seem like a huge increase, but it really isn’t. Last year Eakin, Hayden and Bjork played 182 games scoring only 11 goals.  We also basically only received half seasons from Tuch, Mitts and Krebs (138 games with 25g).  Add full seasons from Tuch, Mitts and Krebs plus the additions of JJP and Quinn and we easily have the potential to add 30-35 goals. 

Now if we can cut 25 goals against, we’ll reach a 0 goal differential and become a playoff contender.

 

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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I think the Lightning continue to have the best core; to my mind the presence of Vasilevsky makes it not close.

The Leafs is very good, just ahead of the Panthers because theirs is one player deeper, and Boston is right there with both, assuming good health and age resistance for Marchand and Bergeron.

Don't sleep on Ottawa either: there's some projection involved obviously, but that 6 is good already, and some would argue Batherson makes it 7.

Objectively, the Sabres and the Wings are a step behind and similar: fine, but nothing special, lacking in elite players, and hoping their young stud D-man can change that.

Montreal might be excited about Suzuki and Caufield, but they are way behind.

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I think the Bruins have the best supporting cast: a lot of good NHL players properly cast in their appropriate slots, as well as 2 of the division's better goalies.

I'd take Florida next. It's not a deep middle class and the defence is weak, but the top 4 are well above the competition.

But Buffalo might be third. Detroit and Montreal have their share of depth at this level, but so do the Sabres, and most of the Sabres have upside possibilities the other two don't have.

Tampa has lost much of it's middle class, although their grit there should keep them competitive here. Toronto's continues to be meh. Ottawa hasn't developed one yet and the youth of its core is going to make that even more obvious.

Edited by dudacek
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The Sabres have good numbers, but the reason I'm ranking them #1 is no one else has prospects the calibre of Quinn and Peterka here, who have the ability to push ahead of guys in their middle-class.

Toronto has a lot of vets and a handful of kids who can fill the bottom of the roster just fine.

Detroit and Montreal have a lot of options here. Ottawa too, although some of these Senators will be playing higher in the lineup.

Boston's depth isn't deep. And it will show with Marchand and McAvoy out.

Tampa seems to have run out of cards in this portion of their lineup, while Florida's depth is just plain bad.

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17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the Lightning continue to have the best core; to my mind the presence of Vasilevsky makes it not close.

The Leafs is very good, just ahead of the Panthers because theirs is one player deeper, and Boston is right there with both, assuming good health and age resistance for Marchand and Bergeron.

Don't sleep on Ottawa either: there's some projection involved obviously, but that 6 is good already, and some would argue Batherson makes it 7.

Objectively, the Sabres and the Wings are a step behind and similar: fine, but nothing special, lacking in elite players, and hoping their young stud D-man can change that.

Montreal might be excited about Suzuki and Caufield, but they are way behind.

I'm definitely in the Batherson makes it 7 camp. He was over a point per game last season until the Dell cheapshot caused him to miss 2 months. Even after coming back and ramping back up he was almost 1pt/gm.

Standings-wise: the top 4 will lose more games to the middle 3 this season and the whole division is going to squeeze together this year (except Montreal).

TB - Another year older. All the kids locked up on long extensions. Still the team to beat and still Vasilevskiy. Still a minimum 108 point team.

TOR - They get gruff about not being good defensively but they have gotten so much better the last couple years in that regard. Murray has been garbage for more than 3 years and Samsonov... could be good, but neither will play to Campbell's level. That won't keep the Leafs from breaking 108 points.

FLA - Got career years from everyone last year. While they gain a Tkachuk, they're minus Huberdeau/Weegar and Duclair's Achilles injury --- that's losing a ton of offense. They'll make the playoffs and get 100 points, but they're not reaching 122. They'll also focus more on the playoffs than the regular season.

BOS - Injuries (Marchand, McAvoy), age (Bergeron, Krejci), and less attention to defense with the new coach will cause some issues. They've got goaltending and they could be dynamite in the 2nd half, but it could be too late. 90 points minimum.

OTT - Adding DeBrincat and (even an old) Giroux gives them the best top 6 among BUF/OTT/DET, and they have a legitimate pair of mid-starter level goalies that BUF/DET don't. They're also adding Sanderson. Ottawa's depth is... fine. Their goaltending wins though. 90 points minimum.

BUF - 86 points minimum.

DET - Lots of additions but those were filling holes. Around the league, UFA signings are sexy and getting Husso and his Vezina votes (instead of Comrie who was backing up Hellebuyck) are why they're trendy. DET fans will also say they're better than Buffalo because they swept us last year. But those games were all played against an injured Olofsson, Tokarski/Dell in net, and pre-March. They add Edvinsson to Seider on the D-line. They'll be better, but not good enough to get past us. Minimum 80 points.

MTL - no Price, hello Bedard sweepstakes.

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Overall I think the Sabres are outclassed at the top of their lineup, but they have the ability to turn over 4 lines as good or better than most of their competition.

That's a nice quality to have when the Sabres also have one of the division's fastest rosters and a coach who preaches that style.

Buffalo's goaltending is a huge question mark, but no more than Toronto's, Montreal's, Ottawa's or Detroit's.

It's defence corps is clearly better than Florida's, Montreal's, Ottawa's or Detroit's.

Their PK needs work, but I expect their PP to be good.

They aren't very physical, but they are well-coached and they do seem to compete and have resiliency.

Yes, Ottawa and Detroit should be better and Buffalo could conceivably finish 7th. But Buffalo should be better too, and the top 4 teams are all likely to be worse.

Points in general should be easier to come by.

I find it hard to see this team finishing with a worse record than last year.

I'm finding it really hard to put number on things, but I think anything less than coming within 10 points or so of a playoff would be a personal disappointment

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