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Over/under 77.5 points


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4 hours ago, Thorny said:

Does 100 mean less than it used to? Or just an anomaly? 

Point inflation exists. The east was essentially class warfare last season between the contenders and the rebuilders. Hence why the point disparity was so significant.

Unfortunately, this point consolidation is a natural evolution of the draft and draft lottery. If you are going to miss the playoffs or be a fringe team at best, you’re better off just terribly underperforming. Why play for a wild card spot when you can get a higher draft pick instead? None of the wildcard teams made it out of the first round last season, but as a result of playing in the playoffs, they removed themselves from the draft lottery. Since you can only jump 10 spots now, it’s best to finish inside 11th place.

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13 hours ago, Thorny said:

Oh ya, with those 4 extra wins they’d be sitting at 100, I don’t think a team has ever missed with that many, no?

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13 teams had 100 points last year?! 41% of the league. Every playoff seed in the East?

Does 100 mean less than it used to? Or just an anomaly? 

Yeah, there was such a big gap between #8 and #9, the top of the east were siphoning points from the hapless bottom half more than most years. In most years, the 7-8 teams would be battling the 9-10 teams down to the last week.

8 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

Point inflation exists. The east was essentially class warfare last season between the contenders and the rebuilders. Hence why the point disparity was so significant.

Unfortunately, this point consolidation is a natural evolution of the draft and draft lottery. If you are going to miss the playoffs or be a fringe team at best, you’re better off just terribly underperforming. Why play for a wild card spot when you can get a higher draft pick instead? None of the wildcard teams made it out of the first round last season, but as a result of playing in the playoffs, they removed themselves from the draft lottery. Since you can only jump 10 spots now, it’s best to finish inside 11th place.

1st para: I think it's just the way it rolls. I remember a few years in the 90s or 2000s where there was a *clear* line between the playoff teams and not in the west. One year there were 7 good teams in the west, and then #8 had 88 points. It happens.

2nd: I seriously doubt any team is going to tank from #9 to try to get to #11 to gain a couple % chance. No owner is going to approve "Well, we may have a chance to get at least 2 more home games and have people in the seats right down to the wire. But if we lose a bunch of games, we can go from 0.8% to 2.6% of moving way up in the draft!"

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2 hours ago, MattPie said:

2nd: I seriously doubt any team is going to tank from #9 to try to get to #11 to gain a couple % chance. No owner is going to approve "Well, we may have a chance to get at least 2 more home games and have people in the seats right down to the wire. But if we lose a bunch of games, we can go from 0.8% to 2.6% of moving way up in the draft!"

Sorry, I I didn't mean to suggest teams were going to play it like that, just that it's mathematically better to miss the playoffs and be under 11th than it is it just barely miss (as happened to Vegas and Vancouver). That was poorly written.

My point was more that we now see teams that are on the fringe of the playoffs turning into sellers and fewer fringe teams turning into buyers (unless the GM feels his job is in jeopardy). That helps lead to point consolidation. 

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19 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

Point inflation exists. The east was essentially class warfare last season between the contenders and the rebuilders. Hence why the point disparity was so significant.

Unfortunately, this point consolidation is a natural evolution of the draft and draft lottery. If you are going to miss the playoffs or be a fringe team at best, you’re better off just terribly underperforming. Why play for a wild card spot when you can get a higher draft pick instead? None of the wildcard teams made it out of the first round last season, but as a result of playing in the playoffs, they removed themselves from the draft lottery. Since you can only jump 10 spots now, it’s best to finish inside 11th place.

The bolded is exceptionally grim and I can’t say I agree..

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