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GDT: 3/4/21 Sabres at NY Islanders 7pm ET


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44 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No, Jonas Johansson was the first goalie off the ice so he is most likely the starter. 

This is pleasing.  JJ gets tonight and likely at least one of Saturday/Sunday (unless Tokarski is called).

More importantly, it means we likely won't see Hutton more than once against NYI, if at all.

Edited by IKnowPhysics
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5 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Oof. It's the Isles and their successful brand of low event hockey.

I'm just looking for more than Dylan Cozens to play with a pulse. I'll tune in.

That's my curiosity too. Will they step up after that or at least did the contrast between their effort and his passion embarrass them into trying a little harder. I suspect it didn't, but I hope it did. 

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2 hours ago, LTS said:

Hall and Staal haven't scored.. Reider has.  Perhaps it's not as crazy as you think.

It'll all matter in ice time in the end. 

Don't have to watch this one... varsity game tonight.  Big game.  Sad the season is almost over.

?  
 

Hall- Staal- Cozens have showed signs of life when together.  I would keep them together and give them more ice time.  
 

Rieder stays on 3rd line.  

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We average 2.3 goals/game.   Less than that in the past few weeks.    Unless our goalie pitches a shutout or has a one goal game, we are not winning. 
 

If the Islanders score first tonight we aren’t winning.  

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3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

This is just stupid.  All the analytics show that Cozens creates scoring opportunities.  Cozens should be playing with Staal and Hall to increase the chances we score a freakin goal.  
 

Okposo should drop to 4th line or not dress.  Let one of the younger guys play. 

 

Do they?

On 3/3/2021 at 7:24 AM, dudacek said:

Since this seems to be the designated Cozens for captain thread, I guess I’ll put this here.

Not sure what it says about the players, the coach, or the fans, but it’s interesting.

Per 60 this season:

  • Hits: Okposo 4.20 Cozens 3.34
  • Blocked shots: Okposo 0.90 Cozens 1.52
  • Giveaways: Okposo 1.20 Cozens 1.52
  • Takeaways: Okposo 1.20 Cozens 1.21
  • ice time: Okposo 13.20 Cozens 13.09
  • Corsi: Okposo 46.2% Cozens 48.4%
  • Fenwick: Okposo 45.1% Cozens 46.6%
  • Expected goals: Okposo .46 Cozens .56
  • Offensive zone starts: Okposo 44.6% Cozens 46.7%
  • PDO: Okposo 93.3 Cozens 102.8

I mean, it kinda looks like they are almost the same player, with Cozens having more luck (PDO)

 

 

The rest of your post I agree with.

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2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Also in the 5 games I've watched Staal has been the worst player on the ice. Very unfortunate 

Said he was getting older going into this season and nobody would have it

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2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I haven't seen enough of this year to know if there's been impovement, but Olofsson (a wonderful PP weapon) was always so invisible at even strength last season. It started to drive me nuts seeing him on Jack's line when the games got important. When Olofsson got hurt last year, Jack got new LWs (Usually Vesey or Zemgus) and put up 13 ES points in his next 16 games without VO. His PP production suffered naturally, without that sniper on the other side. Before Olofsson's injury, Eichel's ES production was similar, but it rarely had anything to do with Victor (remember how much trouble he had at ES early in the season last year, I believe Ralph even mentioned it numerous times in press conferences). Jack dancing around the Panthers, Predators, Capitals etc. with absolute gorgeous efforts, his 4 entirely solo rush effort goals in that game against the Senators, similar rush goals against TOR and MTL etc. Victor just often had nothing to do with it. 

But when Victor came back and teams had ramped up their play down the stretch, it was even more obvious that he wasn't ready to be there, and putting him there actively hampered our run. It literally killed the production of the top line. They won a couple more crazy games going into the TDL, and then as we all know, lost 6 in a row in regulation, and finished outside of the increased playoffs by 1 point. 

Again, without Victor there, Jack had 13 ES points in 16 games, which is borderline elite ES production for a player that does so well on the power play. As soon as Victor came back, the line disappeared. I posted about it in GDTs at the time. In Victor's first 3 games, the only offense that line got was a Jack solo rush goal against the BJs, and they were caved in the rest of the time - other than 1 goal post vs Toronto, there was barely even anything you could call a scoring chance. The key was that nobody noticed this because jack and Victor were lighting it up again on the PP and in OT (olofsson PPG tied the BJs game that was his first one back, and his OT goal won that game, both epic, both assisted by Jack). So people said wow glad to have this back together! Well, you can split them up 5v5 and still get all of those moments in OT and on the PP. 

Because with Olofsson on his side, the remaining 11 games saw Jack get TWO points at even strength. Two. That's it. Olofsson was a drag all year that didn't matter at first, but when teams started getting into that playoff mode (remember those games against Vegas and Colorado? We played so damn well, but lost both, because it was two great teams stepping their game up for the first time we had seen all year) they were suffocated, and having 2 forwards that can handle top defensive assignments instead of 3 wasn't enough. Because we ultimately missed by 1 point, I think this decision actually cost us a shot at the play-in round. It wasn't just stats - Jack's line was far less dangerous by the naked eye overnight. It was one of the lasting things I took out of that season and thought about all summer long.

Skinner this, Skinner that, blah blah, when Eichel's LW is Olofsson, versus when it was anyone else, the following things happened:
Eichel's Corsi drops from 52.7 to 48.6
Eichel goes from +6 in 2/3rds of the sample size, to only +3 in 50% more minutes (his GF% drops from 57.1 to 52.5)
His xGF% drops from 52.1% to 45.8%
High Danger Corsi (not sure how this differs from scoring chances) goes from 53.9% to 44.2%
This is all while his offensive zone starts actually increase by 5%. 

Some of these gaps would indicate the difference between a cup contender and last place, at a team level. 

It doesn't work Ralph! And I'm not hear to say that Skinner deserves ANYTHING, I know I defended him during his first two goal-less droughts, but he's obviously incredibly flawed and needs his hand held at all times, which is a problem at that contract. But, when you have a guy that can score 40 and flip all of those stats, and get the best ES play out of Jack we've ever got, and that player also happens to have like 0 goals away from Jack in his Sabre career, well, maybe take the anchor off and get Skinner there? But even if you don't want to "reward" Skinner for his lack of results, put SOMEONE there that isn't Victor. You hamper both Jack and the team, for a gain that hasn't yet been observed. 
eich.thumb.PNG.8ab7c7b1df34bf2d9e8b747bf2c7bf9f.PNG

This sums the last 3 seasons. At this point, whatever we don't know about Skinner might be far too gone to do anything about. But if you're going to take a guy that scored 40 and received 9 million dollars per year from you, and give him the equivalent of about 5 games worth of minutes in that same situation over the next 2 seasons, and he ***** BLOWS outside of that situation...for me to be okay with it, I had better see some results that I can't deny. Have we seen the spoils of this decision? Because we missed a 24 team playoff last year, and might finish DFL this year. 

Whatever the situation is might change things, and might make fixing things like this impossible, I don't know, I'm just speaking from the knowledge I have (Paul insists that he picks up on things, and that he hasn't heard a peep about Jeff rubbing players the wrong way or anything, he says he's well liked, and Ralph says the treatment has nothing to do with discipline)

This isn't discussed enough.  Oloffson is a weapon on the powerplay, but hasn't proven to be a top line contributor 5v5.

And Krueger's stubbornness by keeping him on the first line only compounded the Sabres ills when he paired Thompson and Olofsson on the top line ar the beginning of the season. (Think that played a factor in Eichel's slow start?).

This doesn't mean that Oloffson is a bad player, it just shows that a coach who hadn't coached professional hockey 6 years before taking the Sabres job might not be able to handle setting lines in the NHL.

And again, no knock against Oloffson, as the coaching staff seems to be able to set him up in dangerous spots on the powerplay on an consistent basis, but can't figure out how to do the same for him at even strength.

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7 minutes ago, jad1 said:

This isn't discussed enough.  Oloffson is a weapon on the powerplay, but hasn't proven to be a top line contributor 5v5.

And Krueger's stubbornness by keeping him on the first line only compounded the Sabres ills when he paired Thompson and Olofsson on the top line ar the beginning of the season. (Think that played a factor in Eichel's slow start?).

This doesn't mean that Oloffson is a bad player, it just shows that a coach who hadn't coached professional hockey 6 years before taking the Sabres job might not be able to handle setting lines in the NHL.

And again, no knock against Oloffson, as the coaching staff seems to be able to set him up in dangerous spots on the powerplay on an consistent basis, but can't figure out how to do the same for him at even strength.

I can see Ralph's thought process, I think he wanted some trial by fire to expedite Olofsson's development process, and believed in him being able to survive and then thrive. 

Nothing shows me it's worked yet though, and I think it hurt the team.

Last year, Olofsson got bumped down for a little bit at the veeeeery end of the season and was played with Johansson and Kahun. That line looked real good in a small sample size, Victor included. Maybe he AND Skinner should get the same treatment that Ralph is giving Skinner now, on the same line. Skinner - Mitts - Olofsson, treat the line very generously. See what happens.

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6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I can see Ralph's thought process, I think he wanted some trial by fire to expedite Olofsson's development process, and believed in him being able to survive and then thrive. 

Nothing shows me it's worked yet though, and I think it hurt the team.

Last year, Olofsson got bumped down for a little bit at the veeeeery end of the season and was played with Johansson and Kahun. That line looked real good in a small sample size, Victor included. Maybe he AND Skinner should get the same treatment that Ralph is giving Skinner now, on the same line. Skinner - Mitts - Olofsson, treat the line very generously. See what happens.

I agree with you, but that would require Krueger to play high event hockey, and he's dead set against that.  

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14 minutes ago, jad1 said:

I agree with you, but that would require Krueger to play high event hockey, and he's dead set against that.  

Agree....Ralph's strategy strikes me as more trying to minimize how badly we lose games vs. high event hockey.  Kind of like the cursed "prevent defense" except that we seldom have a lead to protect.

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What's frustrating to me is, RK thinks the team started to look much more like the team they've been trying to be in the last game.  

He actually thinks that's a good thing.  There's no mention of changes, just building on what he's trying to teach them to do.  

I think the consensus is that he's a mild mannered, calm, strategy and talking over yelling type of coach.  Which constitutes that he's at the very least, a nice guy. 

I tend to disagree now and think he's the most arrogant coach in my lifetime of watching.  I think his know it all attitude is destroying the organization and he's the only one that doesn't see it.  

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2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Do they?

 

The rest of your post I agree with.

They do not, they are about the same. 
 

The question that Ralph and KA need to ask is what is more important the development of the 20 year old Top Prospect or trying to resurrect the career of 32 year old. 
 

But this is in line with many of the boneheaded decisions that have been made 

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<think_sabres>

Mist Wind.

Must Wink.

Most Wan.

Mute Wen.

Miss Wynn.

</think_sabres>

Must win.

There.  I knew I could type it.  It just required me to not think about the possibility of the Sabres winning.  How simple is that?

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Cant, for just one night, the heavens open up and let Jack, Jeff and Taylor pot 2 each in a 9-2 blowout?

They are +52, +16 and +61 respectively in shot attempts and -7, -4 and -14 in goals scored.

Jack hasn’t scored in 10 games, longest drought of his career that I could find, Jeff is at 20 games and counting, almost matching the 22-game hole he wallowed in last year. Taylor is at 19 games. The worst streak I could find previously was 11 back in 2014.

These are supposed to be our three best scorers! On their worst streaks at the same time!? When does that ever happen?

Cant the law of averages step in?

(Yes, I know a Barry Trotz team is the last team to allow that. They’ve owned us)

Edited by dudacek
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