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GDT: 3/4/21 Sabres at NY Islanders 7pm ET


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Just now, bob_sauve28 said:

Probably with a shut out, lol. 

I think we're all fearing a prequel era series. But that's why we watch. The anticipation. The escape to another galaxy arena. The awesome single spectacle in the game we otherwise roll our eyes at. The victory so filled with flaws that you cannot explain it except via luck (if you have experience in luck).

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2 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

I think we're all fearing a prequel era series. But that's why we watch. The anticipation. The escape to another galaxy arena. The awesome single spectacle in the game we otherwise roll our eyes at. The victory so filled with flaws that you cannot explain it except via luck (if you have experience in luck).

Even Lady Luck is in the stands, booing the Sabres.

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Go out and score the first goal. Isles are beatable but not if we fall behind. 

It’s crucial Krueger has them raring from puck drop 

Edited by Thorny
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2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

This is just stupid.  All the analytics show that Cozens creates scoring opportunities.  Cozens should be playing with Staal and Hall to increase the chances we score a freakin goal.  
 

Okposo should drop to 4th line or not dress.  Let one of the younger guys play. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

This is just stupid.  All the analytics show that Cozens creates scoring opportunities.  Cozens should be playing with Staal and Hall to increase the chances we score a freakin goal.  
 

Okposo should drop to 4th line or not dress.  Let one of the younger guys play. 

 

Hall and Staal haven't scored.. Reider has.  Perhaps it's not as crazy as you think.

It'll all matter in ice time in the end. 

Don't have to watch this one... varsity game tonight.  Big game.  Sad the season is almost over.

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Get KO off line 2 for jeepers sakes Ralph

Remember in the offseason when people said it was nice to finally have the issue of too many players to play in the top 6? 

Haha

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If I were making the lines I'd swap Skinner with VO, Mitts with Okposo , Cozens with Sheahan and the last line of Rider-Eakin-Sheahan/Okposo I would only use to kill penalties and not deploy them at even strength. 

Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart

Hall-Staal-Mitts

VO-Lazar-Cozens

Rieder-Eakin-Sheahan/Okposo

 

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16 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

This is just stupid.  All the analytics show that Cozens creates scoring opportunities.  Cozens should be playing with Staal and Hall to increase the chances we score a freakin goal.  
 

Okposo should drop to 4th line or not dress.  Let one of the younger guys play. 

 

100%. I don’t think Staal is a 2nd line center anymore either 

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7 minutes ago, Cal Naughton Jr said:

100%. I don’t think Staal is a 2nd line center anymore either 

If Okposo isn't a 2nd line player any more and Staal isn't a 2nd line player anymore, maybe that line isn't the 2nd line anymore.

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5 minutes ago, Weave said:

If Okposo isn't a 2nd line player any more and Staal isn't a 2nd line player anymore, maybe that line isn't the 2nd line anymore.

Stall leads the teams in points for all skaters that aren't on PP1 (Eichel,Hall,Renio,Vo&Dahlin) - so I don't know who else belongs there. I do think Mitts should be playing on that line hoping that he can grow into it. The season is gone at this point - we should be playing the younger kids to get them experience. 

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Cozens, for his energy and proclivity for goals and scoring chances, has not shown to be great yet at preventing chances.  Putting him on a checking line when we need 5v5 scoring is, to me, in the same vein as putting Skinner with Lazar in line four.

Not necessarily because of his fight, but rather his team-leading 5v5 GF/60, I would have considered giving Cozens some time with Eichel today.

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I haven't seen enough of this year to know if there's been impovement, but Olofsson (a wonderful PP weapon) was always so invisible at even strength last season. It started to drive me nuts seeing him on Jack's line when the games got important. When Olofsson got hurt last year, Jack got new LWs (Usually Vesey or Zemgus) and put up 13 ES points in his next 16 games without VO. His PP production suffered naturally, without that sniper on the other side. Before Olofsson's injury, Eichel's ES production was similar, but it rarely had anything to do with Victor (remember how much trouble he had at ES early in the season last year, I believe Ralph even mentioned it numerous times in press conferences). Jack dancing around the Panthers, Predators, Capitals etc. with absolute gorgeous efforts, his 4 entirely solo rush effort goals in that game against the Senators, similar rush goals against TOR and MTL etc. Victor just often had nothing to do with it. 

But when Victor came back and teams had ramped up their play down the stretch, it was even more obvious that he wasn't ready to be there, and putting him there actively hampered our run. It literally killed the production of the top line. They won a couple more crazy games going into the TDL, and then as we all know, lost 6 in a row in regulation, and finished outside of the increased playoffs by 1 point. 

Again, without Victor there, Jack had 13 ES points in 16 games, which is borderline elite ES production for a player that does so well on the power play. As soon as Victor came back, the line disappeared. I posted about it in GDTs at the time. In Victor's first 3 games, the only offense that line got was a Jack solo rush goal against the BJs, and they were caved in the rest of the time - other than 1 goal post vs Toronto, there was barely even anything you could call a scoring chance. The key was that nobody noticed this because jack and Victor were lighting it up again on the PP and in OT (olofsson PPG tied the BJs game that was his first one back, and his OT goal won that game, both epic, both assisted by Jack). So people said wow glad to have this back together! Well, you can split them up 5v5 and still get all of those moments in OT and on the PP. 

Because with Olofsson on his side, the remaining 11 games saw Jack get TWO points at even strength. Two. That's it. Olofsson was a drag all year that didn't matter at first, but when teams started getting into that playoff mode (remember those games against Vegas and Colorado? We played so damn well, but lost both, because it was two great teams stepping their game up for the first time we had seen all year) they were suffocated, and having 2 forwards that can handle top defensive assignments instead of 3 wasn't enough. Because we ultimately missed by 1 point, I think this decision actually cost us a shot at the play-in round. It wasn't just stats - Jack's line was far less dangerous by the naked eye overnight. It was one of the lasting things I took out of that season and thought about all summer long.

Skinner this, Skinner that, blah blah, when Eichel's LW is Olofsson, versus when it was anyone else, the following things happened:
Eichel's Corsi drops from 52.7 to 48.6
Eichel goes from +6 in 2/3rds of the sample size, to only +3 in 50% more minutes (his GF% drops from 57.1 to 52.5)
His xGF% drops from 52.1% to 45.8%
High Danger Corsi (not sure how this differs from scoring chances) goes from 53.9% to 44.2%
This is all while his offensive zone starts actually increase by 5%. 

Some of these gaps would indicate the difference between a cup contender and last place, at a team level. 

It doesn't work Ralph! And I'm not hear to say that Skinner deserves ANYTHING, I know I defended him during his first two goal-less droughts, but he's obviously incredibly flawed and needs his hand held at all times, which is a problem at that contract. But, when you have a guy that can score 40 and flip all of those stats, and get the best ES play out of Jack we've ever got, and that player also happens to have like 0 goals away from Jack in his Sabre career, well, maybe take the anchor off and get Skinner there? But even if you don't want to "reward" Skinner for his lack of results, put SOMEONE there that isn't Victor. You hamper both Jack and the team, for a gain that hasn't yet been observed. 
eich.thumb.PNG.8ab7c7b1df34bf2d9e8b747bf2c7bf9f.PNG

This sums the last 3 seasons. At this point, whatever we don't know about Skinner might be far too gone to do anything about. But if you're going to take a guy that scored 40 and received 9 million dollars per year from you, and give him the equivalent of about 5 games worth of minutes in that same situation over the next 2 seasons, and he ***** BLOWS outside of that situation...for me to be okay with it, I had better see some results that I can't deny. Have we seen the spoils of this decision? Because we missed a 24 team playoff last year, and might finish DFL this year. 

Whatever the situation is might change things, and might make fixing things like this impossible, I don't know, I'm just speaking from the knowledge I have (Paul insists that he picks up on things, and that he hasn't heard a peep about Jeff rubbing players the wrong way or anything, he says he's well liked, and Ralph says the treatment has nothing to do with discipline)

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18 minutes ago, Weave said:

If Okposo isn't a 2nd line player any more and Staal isn't a 2nd line player anymore, maybe that line isn't the 2nd line anymore.

then Hall shouldn't be on it 

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1 hour ago, Stads said:

Is Magoo starting in net tonight?

No, Jonas Johansson was the first goalie off the ice so he is most likely the starter. 

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