GDT: Leafs @ Sabres, 7pm MSG, 9/22/2018

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, ... said:

 

You've been a downer all game.  I thought, for a pre-season game, it was fun to watch or at least not boring and I see a different team out there than last season.  I think the score would have been pretty lopsided were they as bad as you've been saying all game, and it wasn't. It's not like Toronto sat back.

I'd be more than happy to push the discussion further on specific points, if you'd like to pick one and hammer at it. I'm not really in this to feel good or feel bad, I'm just reflecting on what I'm seeing. 

The example I've formed since posting was that, and keep in mind, this is just a hypothetical, say a roster spot comes down to CJ Smith versus Jason Pominville. Again, a hypothetical, because I have not watched either player enough to get a gauge on which one would help the team more in a week and a half. But I think there's a decent chance for either guy to be a bit better at this juncture, to a non-negligible degree. My worry is that I don't believe there's any way the group chooses to play CJ Smith even in the scenario where CJ Smith is better, which again, I'm not sure and we can't really know. And my worry is well-founded, as this regime has a history of making these decisions. And this team can't afford to make feel-good roster decisions that make us slightly worse, because our margin of error is too thin. The team is mentally in a tough place and enough of them are still around from the last few hard years that another slow start will not be handled well, just like last year's wasn't. Good teams make the right choices and I'm worried our guys won't because we've seen them screw it up before (Moulson's 15 point-less games when we knew he was shot 10 months earlier was an unforgivable and critical mistake last season)

[...]

11 minutes ago, ... said:

 

You've been a downer all game.  I thought, for a pre-season game, it was fun to watch or at least not boring and I see a different team out there than last season.  I think the score would have been pretty lopsided were they as bad as you've been saying all game, and it wasn't. It's not like Toronto sat back.

This is only about your first paragraph, mainly, BTW, and I'm definitely not trying to pick a fight...just trading thoughts.

 

I feel the need to expand.  I don't know about Phil yet, although I have to admit there hasn't been a coaching decision I've seen yet this preseason that made me scratch my head.  I think Phil needs to be given the benefit of the doubt until we can sample his coaching with a better roster during a real season.  I see no reason to get down on him, yet.

There's no way I can agree with the concerns over JBott's abilities and vision.  So far he's done as good as any GM could have with the resources he's had.  If his trend continues, I think we're in good hands.

I don't see a team that's bordering on being too slow.  Between this squad and the B squad last night, there is plenty of speed there now.  

As for passing, decision making, general clumsiness.  I don't agree that it's worthwhile to assess this part of the team's game, yet.  It's still pre-season, the roster is not set, this is still "pretty new" to "new" for many of these guys.  

 

5 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'd be more than happy to push the discussion further on specific points, if you'd like to pick one and hammer at it. I'm not really in this to feel good or feel bad, I'm just reflecting on what I'm seeing. 
 

Yeah, we're cross-posting.  I wrote a more detailed post while you were writing a response.  

Edited September 23, 2018 by ...

[Eleven]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'd be more than happy to push the discussion further on specific points, if you'd like to pick one and hammer at it. I'm not really in this to feel good or feel bad, I'm just reflecting on what I'm seeing. 

The example I've formed since posting was that, and keep in mind, this is just a hypothetical, say a roster spot comes down to CJ Smith versus Jason Pominville. Again, a hypothetical, because I have not watched either player enough to get a gauge on which one would help the team more in a week and a half. But I think there's a decent chance for either guy to be a bit better at this juncture, to a non-negligible degree. My worry is that I don't believe there's any way the group chooses to play CJ Smith even in the scenario where CJ Smith is better, which again, I'm not sure and we can't really know. And my worry is well-founded, as this regime has a history of making these decisions. And this team can't afford to make feel-good roster decisions that make us slightly worse, because our margin of error is too thin. The team is mentally in a tough place and enough of them are still around from the last few hard years that another slow start will not be handled well, just like last year's wasn't. Good teams make the right choices and I'm worried our guys won't because we've seen them screw it up before (Moulson's 15 point-less games when we knew he was shot 10 months earlier was an unforgivable and critical mistake last season)

I get where you're headed with this post and your previous post, but I'm not sure the roster is there *just yet*.  I do think a player or two might be sent down just because they are ineligible for waivers, but I don't think this particular collection of players is ready for prime time right now anyway, even if Ullmark/Hutton turn out to be a brick wall (which is far, far from certain).  I think we're looking at one more season, and then I think we're looking at 2005-06 style Sabres, so the league should watch the F out.

1 minute ago, ... said:

I feel the need to expand.  I don't know about Phil yet, although I have to admit there hasn't been a coaching decision I've seen yet this preseason that made me scratch my head.  I think Phil needs to be given the benefit of the doubt until we can sample his coaching with a better roster during a real season.  I see no reason to get down on him, yet.

There's no way I can agree with the concerns over JBott's abilities and vision.  So far he's done as good as any GM could have with the resources he's had.  If his trend continues, I think we're in good hands.

I don't see a team that's bordering on being too slow.  Between this squad and the B squad last night, there is plenty of speed there now.  

As for passing, decision making, general clumsiness.  I don't agree that it's worthwhile to assess this part of the team's game, yet.  It's still pre-season, the roster is not set, this is still "pretty new" to "new" for many of these guys.  

 

Yeah, we're cross-posting.  I wrote a more detail while you were writing a response.  

And doubts about Housley (yours) and Botterill (anyone else's) are very reasonable.

[...]

12 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The example I've formed since posting was that, and keep in mind, this is just a hypothetical, say a roster spot comes down to CJ Smith versus Jason Pominville. Again, a hypothetical, because I have not watched either player enough to get a gauge on which one would help the team more in a week and a half. But I think there's a decent chance for either guy to be a bit better at this juncture, to a non-negligible degree. My worry is that I don't believe there's any way the group chooses to play CJ Smith even in the scenario where CJ Smith is better, which again, I'm not sure and we can't really know. And my worry is well-founded, as this regime has a history of making these decisions. And this team can't afford to make feel-good roster decisions that make us slightly worse, because our margin of error is too thin. The team is mentally in a tough place and enough of them are still around from the last few hard years that another slow start will not be handled well, just like last year's wasn't. Good teams make the right choices and I'm worried our guys won't because we've seen them screw it up before (Moulson's 15 point-less games when we knew he was shot 10 months earlier was an unforgivable and critical mistake last season)

In your specific example here, I think it's too early to say we can reasonably predict what they will do.  I do not agree with this statement at all: "And my worry is well-founded, as this regime has a history of making these decisions."  This regime hasn't had enough time to build up a history worth using to predict future behavior, especially with the variables being so...variable.

I do agree with your concerns over guiding the team to a stronger place mentally, but I personally am a little more confident in at least JBott to recognize where they are and advocate for certain things to happen for the benefit of the team. 

Edited September 23, 2018 by ...

[Randall Flagg]

5 minutes ago, ... said:

I feel the need to expand.  I don't know about Phil yet, although I have to admit there hasn't been a coaching decision I've seen yet this preseason that made me scratch my head.  I think Phil needs to be given the benefit of the doubt until we can sample his coaching with a better roster during a real season.  I see no reason to get down on him, yet.

There's no way I can agree with the concerns over JBott's abilities and vision.  So far he's done as good as any GM could have with the resources he's had.  If his trend continues, I think we're in good hands.

I don't see a team that's bordering on being too slow.  Between this squad and the B squad last night, there is plenty of speed there now.  

As for passing, decision making, general clumsiness.  I don't agree that it's worthwhile to assess this part of the team's game, yet.  It's still pre-season, the roster is not set, this is still "pretty new" to "new" for many of these guys.  

 

Yeah, we're cross-posting.  I wrote a more detailed post while you were writing a response.  

I think we've got a pretty good handle on a lot of what Phil brings to this point, and I'm not ready to flush him at this moment for sure. I've really liked his transition structure and his emphasis on having puck support in every zone, on-ice things are pretty good to me. I'm pretty critical of his player usage, and it's something I need to see him improve on. I think there are a lot of little things he can do right that can add up to a relatively big difference in outcomes for this season, even if it's not, as Eleven points out, the difference between a team ready to win playoff series and one that's not. But for the psyche of our young guys and for the fans, I think he can make a difference and the track record of apparently-corsi-driven lineups last season was the kind of thing that I think made us worse than we are, and I'm worried about this happening again. 

I'm not really trying to make a strong case about Botterill's vision/plans specifically, only a few immediate roster decisions they are about to make together. Botterill had some misses on NHL depth last year, but I think he picked good pieces this year in that regard. 

Tonight there was a lot of sluggishness compared to last night, and that's what I mean - the right guys from last night injected into tonights rosters in the right place create a Devils-style team from last year, going suddenly from this slow and lumbering trap team to an epic, mistake-filled, fast-as-hell wildcard team that forewent worries about Butcher's readiness to handle NHL power forwards and Jesper Bratt's rawness. 

When I'm talking clumsiness, and connecting it to this whole thread, you can bet 9/10 times I'm warning against the convention of KO as a top six player.  His hands are the same now as last year as 16-17, and our most important forward piece in Jack will not be maximized with the matchup I'm worried about seeing for 40+ games, but I haven't really solidified my lineup thoughts enough yet to go further on that. Today specifically, the clumsiness was also a reference to Bailey's and Larsson's stone hands. 

10 minutes ago, ... said:

 In your specific example here, I think it's too early to say we can reasonably predict what they will do.  I do not agree with this statement at all: "And my worry is well-founded, as this regime has a history of making these decisions."  This regime hasn't had enough time to build up a history worth using to predict future behavior, especially with the variables being so...variable.

I do agree with your concerns over guiding the team to a stronger place mentally, but I personally am a little more confident in at least JBott to recognize where they are and advocate for certain things to happen for the benefit of the team. 

Ideally, and as a long-term-career-defining trait, sure, but this is also an industry and team where coaches are out the door within two years, and worst-teams-in-leagues now compete in playoff games within that same time frame. 

[pi2000]

Honestly, I don't see any difference I their play from last season.  Egregious turnovers on transition, forcing pucks back to he point for "hope and pray" shots, much too many grade A scoring chances against, lack of player development, huge question mark in net, uninspiring play all around.

I understand it's just preseason, but we saw the exact same thing last preseason and it carried over all the way until the final horn blew.  I'm sorry, I just don't see any of these guys skating through a wall for Phil.   They changed out some players , but it looks like nothing has changed.   They never make any in game adjustments, just keep doing the same things over and over and over again.   It's not working.

I've watched all the preseason games and all the same red flags are there from last season.  Whatever Phil is trying to get them to do isn't working.

[Randall Flagg]

Also I think I said this already but it's worth saying again. Reinhart is a fookin good hockey player

[thewookie1]

6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Also I think I said this already but it's worth saying again. Reinhart is a fookin good hockey player

If only he had speed, he’d be amazing. 

[erickompositör72]

8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Also I think I said this already but it's worth saying again. Reinhart is a fookin good hockey player

And consider, he hasn't even been participating in camp.

He just laced them up and was ready to go. He'll be even better Oct 6

Edited September 23, 2018 by erickompositör72

[Andrew Amerk]

12 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

And consider, he hasn't even been participating in camp.

He just laced them up and was ready to go. He'll be even better Oct 6

So you’re saying he’s gonna suck Oct 4 against Boston?

[pastajoe]

14 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

And consider, he hasn't even been participating in camp.

He just laced them up and was ready to go. He'll be even better Oct 6

Sam had been skating with the University of BC team, so he has been practicing. It’s hard to say how the team will perform until we see a more consistent NHL lineup, instead of the half AHL team, and the players get used to each other. I think so far they’re making one too many passes in the O zone, and turning it over when they had a chance to shoot. And their D zone breakout has to be better. Still throwing it up the boards too much and allowing opponent D to keep in.

[dudacek]

I thought Okposo looked a little quicker and much more authoritative with his passes tonight, although I was heavily distracted in the back half and not watching as closely. I did not like his work in his first game.

[Doohickie]

I thought for the most part Okie looked ok.  He seemed to settle down the play a few times when the rest of the team was running around with its hair on fire (in a bad, uncoordinated way).

[Huckleberry]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I've seen enough... Hutton is the #1 goalie.  I hope he tutors Linus well.

Lets say Ullmark doesn't get there, Hutton doesn't have a lot of mileage , he could reach 40 easy and still be good.

What I like about the skinner goal was you see 3 guys with quick hands and vision make that play happen.

Edited September 23, 2018 by Huckleberry

[PerreaultForever]

Wow, way more negativity than I expected to see. Oh well, comes from years of losing I guess.

I liked Hutton. Don't think he'll be an allstar or anything but he looks like he will be calm and stable and reliable. Big change from Lehner and he handles the puck really well which should help a lot with quick transition. Big improvement for us there.

I think Skinner and Eichel need time to gel, but I like the early signs. Jack has always lacked players who can keep up with him and Skinner can so with a little more time together I think we will see some solid scoring there. Our top line should be able to play with anyone.

The problem comes on line 2. No way what we have can compete if Tavares and Matthews were 1, 2 on the other side. We will have a lot of trouble with any team that has two solid scoring lines and speed. We are faster, but maybe not fast enough yet.

Dahlin's a kid, take it easy on him. He will be just fine.

I think the D is vastly improved. If he stays healthy, Bogo as a 5/6 guy is pretty solid. Beaulieu not so much. Still makes really dumb mistakes, totally unreliable. I'd like to see them try Guhle/Bogo as our 5/6 instead. 

Overall, I think we are a lot better than last year but if you look at our division, we are not as good as the annoying Leafs  (who have already won the cup if you listen to their drooling media) or Tampa and probably not as good as Boston either. So wildcard at best, and that'll be a stretch. 

I think we will compete way more often than last year and will entertain way more than last but we will still lose a lot of close ones and probably come up a little short. With luck and good fortune however, who knows. For the first time in a long time I think playoffs are not impossible. 

 

Edited September 23, 2018 by PerreaultForever

[thewookie1]

Fun fact: Marleau’s play on Dahlin was a very fascinating event since Marleau had been in the NHL playing games before Dahlin was even conceived. 

[MODO Hockey]

10 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Honestly, I don't see any difference I their play from last season.  Egregious turnovers on transition, forcing pucks back to he point for "hope and pray" shots, much too many grade A scoring chances against, lack of player development, huge question mark in net, uninspiring play all around.

I understand it's just preseason, but we saw the exact same thing last preseason and it carried over all the way until the final horn blew.  I'm sorry, I just don't see any of these guys skating through a wall for Phil.   They changed out some players , but it looks like nothing has changed.   They never make any in game adjustments, just keep doing the same things over and over and over again.   It's not working.

I've watched all the preseason games and all the same red flags are there from last season.  Whatever Phil is trying to get them to do isn't working.

 

I dont agree with you and i didnt see u type this when we won 2 games, why is that?

Anyway, 

We need 15-20 regular games before we even can say theres a difference or not.
This is probably the most interesting season in a long time when looking at what Sabres have obtained.

 

Edited September 23, 2018 by MODO Hockey

[Die Hard]

What a game! I’m encouraged to see all the speed and hustle... particularly on the back-checking. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen through the prospect tourney and pre-season games the back-checking forward breaking up dangerous plays. They seem to be tightening up the ship. 

That was a toughly fought and tightly contested game. Each team had an equal number of quality scoring changes. I thought Buffalo had a few more... and better quality. But just like Penguins game.... a few quick goals from innocent shots from the point get through and it changes the momentum of the game.

I will say..... although they were neutralizing the Leafs attack for the most part.... I just love the way Toronto cycles the puck in the offensive zone... always seem to throw the puck back into the slot for a trailer..... who is always there (sometimes a Defenseman but mostly forwards). Gives so many quality opportunities for a one-timer or a quick-bang-bang play/opportunity. It reminds me of what the Senators always use to do to us... cycle the puck around that always ends up with a player in the high slot with a quality scoring chance. And I wonder why I never see the Sabres do anything that resembles this.... except on the power play.

I will say this though.... Dahlin was easily the worst player on the ice last night for Buffalo. He looked S-L-O-W . Having watched him this offseason... I couldn’t help but laugh. Welcome to the big leagues son! I’m not worried at all.... he’s dominated so far and I’m sure he’ll learn from this experience. But it tempers my expectation for him this year... I could see him as a 3rd pairing guy right now.

Hutton was amazing. Nothing spectacular.... but just calm, steady. It was the Leafs goalies who were having to make the highlight reel saves.

I’ll hold judgment on Skinner. He wasn’t what I was expecting from a ‘goal scorer’. I don’t seem him benefitting from set plays... he’s more like a ‘hair is on fire’ isolation player that ends up in high quality scoring changes... sometimes forcing the issue (not using his teammates)... and for a natural gift goal scorer... he wastes a lot of chances. Too many are non-threatening. I know he scored a goal - and I missed it... but I didn’t like his fit.

Edited September 23, 2018 by Die Hard

[SwampD]

I forgot how much fun it is to watch a goalie who plays the puck.

[LGR4GM]

Lol, it's preseason. Everyone needs to breath. 

4 hours ago, MODO Hockey said:

 

I dont agree with you and i didnt see u type this when we won 2 games, why is that?

Anyway, 

We need 15-20 regular games before we even can say theres a difference or not.
This is probably the most interesting season in a long time when looking at what Sabres have obtained.

 

I agree. Lots of potential this season. We should be excited at the difference. There's entire periods now where we look good. 

[bob_sauve28]

Disappointing they couldn't score a goal against the Leafs fourth goalie in the third there.

I'd be surprised is Pilut doesn't make this team. The D looks terrible. What's the argument against Dahlin just getting more playing time somewhere else? He's all of 18 years old. I think a year developing is a fine thing. Samson did it. 

Justin Bailey made things happen when he was out there, wish he had gotten a goal, though. 

[Weave]

3 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Justin Bailey made things happen when he was out there, wish he had gotten a goal, though. 

I think we are always going to say that about Justin Bailey.  I like the kid, but I think he's going to be a fringe player.

[North Buffalo]

Thought the Sabres played really well except for some bad positioning and decisions on the rush. Also Dhalin has some learning to do   against high speed forecheck teams. Still the speed and effort was there and as the guys get to know each other some of this will clean up.  Goaltending seemed decent but needs to be better.  Nice to see Sabres be able to match TO team speed.  Really liking Tage Thompson and CJ Smith.  Larrson is so done.

[North Buffalo]

What these two games proved is D is a work in progress and playing transition game takes some more work. That being said... super fun to watch... ps Bailey looking good.

[nfreeman]

It was great to see Reino play that well.  When Howie moved him up to the top line with Eichel and Skinner, I thought that line was extremely dangerous and created a ton of chances. 

If they keep those 3 as the #1 line, it will create questions as to whether there will be enough 2ndary scoring -- and a bunch of guys will have opportunities to provide that scoring.  Casey, KO, ERod, Thompson, Nylander, Asplund, CJ, Berglund, Sobotka -- all are skilled enough to seize a role and produce.  Howie will need to figure it out.

Marleau definitely showed Dahlin a couple of times that he ain't in Kansas anymore.  But I didn't think Dahlin looked overwhelmed.  And I want Dahlin on PP1 instead of Risto.

Hutton looked pretty good, although the GWG was a disturbing flashback to Lehner.

Overall that was a pretty exciting game.  It's a bit sobering to recall that in the regular season, Toronto will also have Tavares, Marner, Nylander and Kadri.