That Aud Smell Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I don't know if the fanbase can stomach another year of Tyrod, however. There is something to this. OTOH, I genuinely hope that the Bills FO is not prioritizing that consideration (a'tall) when making decisions. So you go into 2018-19 with TT and Peterman as the backup ? QB rich draft class - gotta get one this year. I think that's right. I know zilch about any of the prospects, of course, other than to know that there are many names out there. Take your shot, I say. But don't trade up and expend capital. That's especially so because I envision the team parting with a pick or picks to get Alex Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 So you go into 2018-19 with TT and Peterman as the backup ? QB rich draft class - gotta get one this year. I have almost no confidence any QB that's in a position to be taken in the draft this year by the Bills will be better than Tyrod. As people above have pointed out, I don't think any FA QB will be enough of an upgrade that they're worth their salary+Tyrod's dead cap hit. I think you draft this year, have NewQB backup Tyrod and learn the ropes, and go into 2019 with (hopefully) your long-term solution. The Bills have rushed too many QBs into the league and it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanny Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) Right, we save money on his contract by cutting him. But if we take on Smith, that'll be $21.6 million in addition to the $8 million dead cap. So $29.6 million for average quarterbacking versus $18 million for just keeping Tyrod. I think the number for Smith is $17M, not $21.6; $3.6M would stay with KC as dead cap due to signing bonus. Slight change, but worth noting. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/alex-smith-3337/ Edited January 9, 2018 by Lanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swedesessed Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) I do understand That Aud Smell's point about the top picks and it has validity. Sure it could be viewed as a 'coin toss'. But if the Bills continue to wait until after the 1st round to find a franchise QB, it will be like fipping a coin looking for heads and the coin has 5 sides to it. Sure it might be 50/50 at the top of the 1st round to hit on a QB, but what is the percentage to hit in the 2nd round? 20% maybe? 3rd round? 10%? You HAVE to go for a QB if you are Beane. And in the 1st, preferably early 1st. Edited January 9, 2018 by (E5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I see your point, but no matter who they bring in to replace TT, that $8MM dead cap hit will be there — and it’s still less than half of the cap hit for keeping him. If you’re going to require that TT’s replacement provide $8MM in incremental “discount value” to make up for TT’s dead cap hit — i.e. that the FNG needs to deliver $24MM worth of QB play for a $16MM salary — then it will be impossible to find a QB. I'm not requiring TT's replacement to do that in the literal sense, but I want his replacement to be worth it. Using the link We've provided earlier, I don't think going from the 22nd best to the 18th best means much of anything. I think QBs are kind of like wine. You definitely want better than the bottom of the barrel, but unless you're hitting truly premium territory, there's not a ton of value in moving around the middle ranks. I think the number for Smith is $17M, not $21.6; $3.6M would stay with KC as dead cap due to signing bonus. Slight change, but worth noting. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/alex-smith-3337/ Good catch. I have almost no confidence any QB that's in a position to be taken in the draft this year by the Bills will be better than Tyrod. As people above have pointed out, I don't think any FA QB will be enough of an upgrade that they're worth their salary+Tyrod's dead cap hit. I think you draft this year, have NewQB backup Tyrod and learn the ropes, and go into 2019 with (hopefully) your long-term solution. The Bills have rushed too many QBs into the league and it shows. This is my preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I do understand That Aud Smell's point about the top picks and it has validity. Sure it could be viewed as a 'coin toss'. But if the Bills continue to wait until after the 1st round to find a franchise QB, it will be like fipping a coin looking for heads and the coin has 5 sides to it. Sure it might be 50/50 at the top of the 1st round to hit on a QB, but what is the percentage to hit in the 2nd round? 20% maybe? 3rd round? 10%? You HAVE to go for a QB if you are Beane. And in the 1st, preferably early 1st. Just for discussion's sake, I'll define the first twelve overall picks as top of the 1st round (which I think is fair for the QB position). Below are the QBs picked within the range since 1990. I've bolded the ones that would likely be considered true "hits" -- and that includes 2 guys who are still just getting started (Goff and Wentz), one guy who's had some struggles early (Mariota), and another guy who flamed out spectacularly but did enough to be really good for a time (Vick). It is not quite a 50-50 proposition. Closer to 1-in-3. 1. Peyton Manning Eli Manning Drew Bledsoe Carson Palmer Alex Smith Jeff George Michael Vick Matthew Stafford Cam Newton David Carr Sam Bradford Andrew Luck Tim Couch Jameis Winston JaMarcus Russell Jared Goff 2. Donovan McNabb Rick Mirer Robert Griffin Marcus Mariota Carson Wentz Ryan Leaf 3. Steve McNair Matt Ryan Joey Harrington Vince Young Blake Bortles Heath Shuler Akili Smith 4. Philip Rivers 5. Kerry Collins Mark Sanchez 6. Trent Dilfer David Klingler 7. Byron Leftwich Andre Ware 8. Ryan Tannehill Jake Locker 10. (None at 9.) Blaine Gabbert Matt Leinart 11. Ben Roethlisberger Jay Cutler Daunte Culpepper 12. Christian Ponder Cade McNown +++ Another thought: Holy moley, once you get outside the top-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 IF you can get Cousins for a reasonable price (which is doubtful due to how many teams need a QB) then grab him & trade Taylor. If you can't, keep Taylor. Either way, spend 1 or both 1sts on a QB. If Indy will consider 21 & 22 good enough, move up. If not, grab the best of what's available at 21 or 22. Taylor / Cousins is next year's starter w/ an open competition in '19 unless the rookie wowwed the coaches down the stretch. Dumping Taylor w/ no viable vet to replace him would bring back too many memories of '05 even if they do land Mayfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Alex Smith is definitely a 'hit' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 IF you can get Cousins for a reasonable price (which is doubtful due to how many teams need a QB) then grab him & trade Taylor. If you can't, keep Taylor. Either way, spend 1 or both 1sts on a QB. If Indy will consider 21 & 22 good enough, move up. If not, grab the best of what's available at 21 or 22. Taylor / Cousins is next year's starter w/ an open competition in '19 unless the rookie wowwed the coaches down the stretch. Dumping Taylor w/ no viable vet to replace him would bring back too many memories of '05 even if they do land Mayfield. I'd say NFW Cousins can be had for a fair price or (amortized) term. I love the idea of two QBs at the lower half of the 1st round, but the team also has many holes to fill. Alex Smith is definitely a 'hit' Meh. I'd say nay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) Meh. I'd say nay. He's been a consistent starter on multiple playoff teams for years. He's had the same career success as Phillip Rivers How is Smith not a hit, but Mariota is? And if Mariota is, how is Winston not? Edited January 9, 2018 by Jokertecken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 a hit should be any of these guys who was a legitimate starter and helped their team win games or reach the playoffs. Not sure how else you define hit. Also everyone keeps spelling Mason Rudolph like Baker Mayfield... the bills should draft Rudolph at 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nice list, Smell, though Mariota was brutal this season, I wouldn't bold either him or Jameis yet but if one deserved it over the other it'd definitely be Jameis at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 He's been a consistent starter on multiple playoff teams for years. He's had the same career success as Phillip Rivers How is Smith not a hit, but Mariota is? And if Mariota is, how is Winston not? I'd dispute the conclusion that Smith ~ Rivers. The latter has thrown for about 20,000 more yards and 150+ more TDs than the former. As for Mariota, I know that his inclusion is shaky. I think that bomb-ass block he threw at the end of the Chiefs game tipped it for me. a hit should be any of these guys who was a legitimate starter and helped their team win games or reach the playoffs. Not sure how else you define hit. I will readily admit that my criteria were undefined and vague. Nice list, Smell, though Mariota was brutal this season, I wouldn't bold either him or Jameis yet but if one deserved it over the other it'd definitely be Jameis at this point Fair on Mariota. I do think he gets it sorted out and becomes a good NFL starter. Jameis? I'm not sure what's going on with that guy, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just sign Bridgewater as a UFA and gamble he stays healthy :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gramps Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I have almost no confidence any QB that's in a position to be taken in the draft this year by the Bills will be better than Tyrod. As people above have pointed out, I don't think any FA QB will be enough of an upgrade that they're worth their salary+Tyrod's dead cap hit. I think you draft this year, have NewQB backup Tyrod and learn the ropes, and go into 2019 with (hopefully) your long-term solution. The Bills have rushed too many QBs into the league and it shows. Isn't that what the plan was for Peterman this year ? So TT stays, the natives are restless, and we finish 8-8 or 9-7 next year with a newly drafted QB on the sidelines ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Buffalo Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Isn't that what the plan was for Peterman this year ? So TT stays, the natives are restless, and we finish 8-8 or 9-7 next year with a newly drafted QB on the sidelines ? What are you gonna do until you can find one.. hit on one... have no idea about this draft class because I have seen too many busts. Just hope the Bills are able to identify one and be sucessful... otherwise here is hoping.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Well, we may have been operating under the wrong cap assumptions regarding TT -- per ESPN: Cutting Taylor would result in a $3 million cap hit; trading him would cost about $2 million. http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/30922/tyrod-taylor-cordy-glenn-among-bills-trade-candidates-this-offseason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Rapaport believes they trade Tyrod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Rapaport believes they trade Tyrod Late 2nd rounder, tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Late 2nd rounder, tops I should say. I'd reckon a 4th rounder is a more likely value. But maybe the trade is made conditional on what Taylor does for the acquiring team, with a ceiling of a 2nd and a floor of a 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnRobertEichel Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Well, we may have been operating under the wrong cap assumptions regarding TT -- per ESPN: http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/30922/tyrod-taylor-cordy-glenn-among-bills-trade-candidates-this-offseason Was that a typo?! If not, then it is a virtual guarantee that Taylor is gone. $15-16 million saved with a $2-3million cap hit is absolutely awesome for the Bills. I've read a bit more on the positives and negatives of Alex Smith. I'm slowly leaning toward bringing Smith in and letting him finish his career in Buffalo. He's only 33, which is only 4 years older than Cousins. He looks like a very solid bridge QB for a West Coast offense, and he'd allow the Bills to continue staying competitive on the field while giving Beane a bit more time in finding and grooming the franchise QB. Also remember that McDermott is a defense guy. He will want to use most of those early round picks on DL and LB, and it wouldn't be a bad route to take given the particular talent in the top 100 of the 2018 draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 ^ Hear, hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 No one is trading for Taylor, not at that salary level. The above article was pretty clear on what our needs are. DL, QB, OL, RB and DB. We need a young RB to spell McCoy and eventually replace him. We need a QB. I’d rather get Bradford then Smith or Cousins and still draft Mayfield or Rudolph. I suspect we get a DL with 21 and a QB at 22. RB and DB in the second and the OL in the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 No one is trading for Taylor, not at that salary level. The above article was pretty clear on what our needs are. DL, QB, OL, RB and DB. We need a young RB to spell McCoy and eventually replace him. We need a QB. I’d rather get Bradford then Smith or Cousins and still draft Mayfield or Rudolph. I suspect we get a DL with 21 and a QB at 22. RB and DB in the second and the OL in the 3rd. Back up RBs can be found on the street. Please don't let them waste any real assets on one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gramps Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 No one is trading for Taylor, not at that salary level. The above article was pretty clear on what our needs are. DL, QB, OL, RB and DB. We need a young RB to spell McCoy and eventually replace him. We need a QB. I’d rather get Bradford then Smith or Cousins and still draft Mayfield or Rudolph. I suspect we get a DL with 21 and a QB at 22. RB and DB in the second and the OL in the 3rd. Bradford's got bad knees - don't want to sign a guy that gonna end up on IR. Rather have Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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