Buffalo Bills 2017-18

[TrueBlueGED]

These don't go together

Go ahead and do a Twitter search for mentally stable genius ;)

[Sabres Fan in NS]

These don't go together 

 

 

Go ahead and do a Twitter search for mentally stable genius ;)

 

Be afraid, very afraid.

[WildCard]

Go ahead and do a Twitter search for mentally stable genius ;)

Be afraid, very afraid.

Well played :lol:

[That Aud Smell]

The more I think about it, the more I think that the best case scenario is for the Bills to acquire Smith from the Chiefs for something other than a 1st rounder (there'd be some symmetry there, in that they can get back (some of? more than?) what they gave up for Mahomes), and then draft a QB (or two (maybe even one in 2018 and one in 2019?)).

 

I've read people here saying that Smith is no better than Taylor. I disagree with that. He's somewhat better, and far from great. But Smith would be an ideal bridge quarterback until the team's next QB of the future is ready to go.

Edited January 8, 2018 by That Aud Smell

[Gramps]

The more I think about it, the more I think that the best case scenario is for the Bills to acquire Smith from the Chiefs for something other than a 1st rounder (there'd be some symmetry there, in that they can get back some of what they gave up for Mahomes), and then draft a QB (or two (maybe even one in 2018 and one in 2019?)).

 

I've read people here saying that Smith is no better than Taylor. I disagree with that. He's somewhat better, and far from great. But Smith would be an ideal bridge quarterback until the team's next QB of the future is ready to go.

 

I'm on the Smith wagon ... better than an injury-plagued Bradford or any other UFA x/c Cousins or Garoppolo who were not getting.

[That Aud Smell]

I'm on the Smith wagon ... better than an injury-plagued Bradford or any other UFA x/c Cousins or Garoppolo who were not getting.

 

It's mission critical that the team not overpay for Cousins.

[TrueBlueGED]

The more I think about it, the more I think that the best case scenario is for the Bills to acquire Smith from the Chiefs for something other than a 1st rounder (there'd be some symmetry there, in that they can get back (some of? more than?) what they gave up for Mahomes), and then draft a QB (or two (maybe even one in 2018 and one in 2019?)).

 

I've read people here saying that Smith is no better than Taylor. I disagree with that. He's somewhat better, and far from great. But Smith would be an ideal bridge quarterback until the team's next QB of the future is ready to go.

Is somewhat better worth say a 2nd round pick and ~$5 million more?

 

I also boldly predict everyone on board with Smith will hate him by week 8.

Edited January 8, 2018 by TrueBlueGED

[That Aud Smell]

Is somewhat better worth say a 2nd round pick and ~$5 million more?

 

I'd like to think so.

 

The $5M more is not a huge deal, I don't think. The 2nd round pick hurts, sure, but it's a good use of an asset for an improvement in the team's bridge QB.

 

I've posited that Taylor is firmly entrenched among the bottom third of the league's starters (and he may not even start for a team next season). My sense is that Smith is firmly entrenched among the middle third of the league's starters. And he's a fit for the west coast timing O that Dennison runs (assuming there's no change made there). 

[WildCard]

Tyrod will definitely start somewhere

[TrueBlueGED]

I'd like to think so.

 

The $5M more is not a huge deal, I don't think. The 2nd round pick hurts, sure, but it's a good use of an asset for an improvement in the team's bridge QB.

 

I've posited that Taylor is firmly entrenched among the bottom third of the league's starters (and he may not even start for a team next season). My sense is that Smith is firmly entrenched among the middle third of the league's starters. And he's a fit for the west coast timing O that Dennison runs (assuming there's no change made there).

Putting aside that we clearly have different opinions on how good Smith is, I think it's a terrible use of an asset. Smith is a UFA after 2018, and surely the plan if we draft a QB in the 1st is to have him starting sooner rather than later. You want to get more out of a 2nd round pick than one season of marginal improvement.

 

Smith makes $3.6 motion more than Tyrod, and if cut, Tyrod has a dead cap hit of $8.6 million. That's enough extra money for a really good starter at another position. So the calculus is really Tyrod, a 2nd, and a good positional starter, for Smith. Anyone would be hard pressed to convince me that makes us a better team than keeping Tyrod for one more year, getting a good free agent, and a possible starter in the 2nd.

Tyrod will definitely start somewhere

He certainly should. But the NFL is kinda dumb sometimes. Edited January 8, 2018 by TrueBlueGED

[That Aud Smell]

Tyrod will definitely start somewhere

 

my recency bias says "no."

 

Putting aside that we clearly have different opinions on how good Smith is, I think it's a terrible use of an asset. Smith is a UFA after 2018, and surely the plan if we draft a QB in the 1st is to have him starting sooner rather than later. You want to get more out of a 2nd round pick than one season of marginal improvement.

 

Smith makes $3.6 motion more than Tyrod, and if cut, Tyrod has a dead cap hit of $8.6 million. That's enough extra money for a really good starter at another position. So the calculus is really Tyrod, a 2nd, and a good positional starter, for Smith. Anyone would be hard pressed to convince me that makes us a better team than keeping Tyrod for one more year, getting a good free agent, and a possible starter in the 2nd.

He certainly should. But the NFL is kinda dumb sometimes.

 

this is fair. i guess i wish smith would come cheaper than a 2nd. maybe he would/will.

 

if tyrod stays, then something's gotta change with the O. does dennison go? that too seems counter-productive. but maybe not as counter-productive as having a QB who's such an ill fit for the passing scheme.

[nfreeman]

Putting aside that we clearly have different opinions on how good Smith is, I think it's a terrible use of an asset. Smith is a UFA after 2018, and surely the plan if we draft a QB in the 1st is to have him starting sooner rather than later. You want to get more out of a 2nd round pick than one season of marginal improvement.

 

Smith makes $3.6 motion more than Tyrod, and if cut, Tyrod has a dead cap hit of $8.6 million. That's enough extra money for a really good starter at another position. So the calculus is really Tyrod, a 2nd, and a good positional starter, for Smith. Anyone would be hard pressed to convince me that makes us a better team than keeping Tyrod for one more year, getting a good free agent, and a possible starter in the 2nd.

He certainly should. But the NFL is kinda dumb sometimes.

 

Oooooooooooohhhh.

 

TB is guilty of #Hammymath.

 

Perhaps it was unintentional.  Either way, TB has neglected to point out that TT's dead cap hit is about $8MM less than his cap hit if the Bills keep him.

[PASabreFan]

Go ahead and do a Twitter search for mentally stable genius ;)

Or delicate genius.

[TrueBlueGED]

Oooooooooooohhhh.

 

TB is guilty of #Hammymath.

 

Perhaps it was unintentional. Either way, TB has neglected to point out that TT's dead cap hit is about $8MM less than his cap hit if the Bills keep him.

Right, we save money on his contract by cutting him. But if we take on Smith, that'll be $21.6 million in addition to the $8 million dead cap. So $29.6 million for average quarterbacking versus $18 million for just keeping Tyrod.

[LGR4GM]

draft a qb

[TrueBlueGED]

my recency bias says "no."

 

 

this is fair. i guess i wish smith would come cheaper than a 2nd. maybe he would/will.

 

if tyrod stays, then something's gotta change with the O. does dennison go? that too seems counter-productive. but maybe not as counter-productive as having a QB who's such an ill fit for the passing scheme.

Smith may well come cheaper than a 2nd. I was just using the Garoppolo trade as an off-the-cuff benchmark. As to Dennison...I think he should be fired regardless of what happens at QB. Guy is a horrid play caller with unimaginative play design.

[Scottysabres]

draft a qb

They will.

Only, it won't be any of this years top 4. The other 2 are crap shoots. And people want to trade the firsts and perhaps even one of the seconds on crap shoots......

Edited January 8, 2018 by Lucky E

[LGR4GM]

They will.

Only, it won't be any of this years top 4. The other 2 are crap shoots. And people want to trade the firsts and perhaps even one of the seconds on crap shoots......

Who is talking about trading both firsts and a second? There will be 2 of those 6 guys left at 21, draft one.

[Weave]

I'd like to think so.

 

The $5M more is not a huge deal, I don't think. The 2nd round pick hurts, sure, but it's a good use of an asset for an improvement in the team's bridge QB.

 

I've posited that Taylor is firmly entrenched among the bottom third of the league's starters (and he may not even start for a team next season). My sense is that Smith is firmly entrenched among the middle third of the league's starters. And he's a fit for the west coast timing O that Dennison runs (assuming there's no change made there). 

 

Timely link  http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2751014-nfl1000-ranking-the-top-quarterbacks-from-2017-season

 

Tyrod Taylor ranked #22.  Alex Smith ranked 18.

[Winston]

I have a feeling Eli will find his way to Jacksonville, reunited with Coughlin. But I would love to draft an understudy and see what Eli has left in the tank for 2 years.

[WildCard]

I have a feeling Eli will find his way to Jacksonville, reunited with Coughlin. But I would love to draft an understudy and see what Eli has left in the tank for 2 years.

Jags have said they will stick with Bortles, and the Giants-Eli thing seems to be staying too. They'd be monumental morons to draft Rosen and stick him behind that line right off the bat

[Winston]

Jags have said they will stick with Bortles, and the Giants-Eli thing seems to be staying too. They'd be monumental morons to draft Rosen and stick him behind that line right off the bat

I don’t think we can trust anything out of Jax while they’re still alive.. they wouldn’t announce plans to move on while Bortles still has a playoff game to start haha. But I haven’t followed the Eli situation recently to know what NY will do.

[JohnRobertEichel]

 

I was imprecise, I think.

 

I don't mean to suggest that it's a crapshoot, as in, you may as well try to get your Brady in round 6 rather than get your Peyton Manning at #1 overall. I am sure that the overwhelming majority of good (or better) starting QBs are taken in round 1 or 2.

 

What I mean is that, within those first two rounds, the matter of getting the right guy seems fairly random (and even a bit unlikely). 

 

Peyton Manning, Luck, and Cam Newton went first overall. But so did Alex Smith, Tim Couch, Jeff George, Jamarcus Russell, and David Carr.

 

Donovan McNabb and Carson Wentz went 2nd overall. But so did Rick Mirer and Ryan Leaf.

 

Matt Ryan went third overall, but then again so did a thing called Joey Harrington, as well as chumps like Vince Young, Blake Bortles, Heath Shuler, and Akili Smith.

 

You say Philip Rivers? I say Jake Locker.

 

You say Ben Roethlisberger? I say Blaine Gabbert.

 

Like I said, it seems pretty random. I am sure that there are some scouts who are better at it than others. But I think I'd rather be lucky than good when it comes to getting the next great signal caller.

 

 

Thank you for the clarification. I'm not sure I agree with you, but I also don't have the data needed to make a case against your argument. Ideally, I would have the draft evaluations from every NFL team of every QB drafted in the first round, going back to - say - the year 2000. Then I would separate "league consensus 1st round QB's" from the list of actual QB's drafted in the 1st round. 

 

Basically, what I'm getting at is that I suspect a lot of 1st round busts have been a result of a very small number of desperate, incompetent, and paranoid team GM's reaching for QB's that most other teams felt weren't ever worth the risk of a 1st round pick. 

 

Example from 2004: Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger were consensus 1st round QB's. Losman wasn't.

Example from 2013: no consensus 1st round QB's existed. Manuel was taken 16th overall.

 

The most realistic 2018 draft projections I've seen so far have Darnold going 1st to the Browns, Rosen 2nd to the Giants, Allen 5th to the Broncos, and Mayfield 6th to the Jets. Jackson should also be gone by the first 20 picks. This is why I'm currently exploring the idea of Smith or Cousins instead. Yet another option is keeping Tyrod for one final year and using the first four 2018 picks on rebuilding the front 7 (2 DT, 1 DE, 1 MLB) in order to create our own Jaguars-like defense. I don't know if the fanbase can stomach another year of Tyrod, however.

[nfreeman]

Right, we save money on his contract by cutting him. But if we take on Smith, that'll be $21.6 million in addition to the $8 million dead cap. So $29.6 million for average quarterbacking versus $18 million for just keeping Tyrod.

I see your point, but no matter who they bring in to replace TT, that $8MM dead cap hit will be there — and it’s still less than half of the cap hit for keeping him.

 

If you’re going to require that TT’s replacement provide $8MM in incremental “discount value” to make up for TT’s dead cap hit — i.e. that the FNG needs to deliver $24MM worth of QB play for a $16MM salary — then it will be impossible to find a QB.

[Gramps]

Thank you for the clarification. I'm not sure I agree with you, but I also don't have the data needed to make a case against your argument. Ideally, I would have the draft evaluations from every NFL team of every QB drafted in the first round, going back to - say - the year 2000. Then I would separate "league consensus 1st round QB's" from the list of actual QB's drafted in the 1st round. 

 

Basically, what I'm getting at is that I suspect a lot of 1st round busts have been a result of a very small number of desperate, incompetent, and paranoid team GM's reaching for QB's that most other teams felt weren't ever worth the risk of a 1st round pick. 

 

Example from 2004: Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger were consensus 1st round QB's. Losman wasn't.

Example from 2013: no consensus 1st round QB's existed. Manuel was taken 16th overall.

 

The most realistic 2018 draft projections I've seen so far have Darnold going 1st to the Browns, Rosen 2nd to the Giants, Allen 5th to the Broncos, and Mayfield 6th to the Jets. Jackson should also be gone by the first 20 picks. This is why I'm currently exploring the idea of Smith or Cousins instead. Yet another option is keeping Tyrod for one final year and using the first four 2018 picks on rebuilding the front 7 (2 DT, 1 DE, 1 MLB) in order to create our own Jaguars-like defense. I don't know if the fanbase can stomach another year of Tyrod, however.

 

So you go into 2018-19 with TT and Peterman as the backup ? QB rich draft class - gotta get one this year.