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Everything posted by MattPie

  1. If the Sabres don't have to personnel to have a competent PK, they won't win the cup. 🙂 I'm not saying it's impossible that the Sabres don't have a bunch or players that are 2-way PK stars-in-waiting, but that would be an outlier from every other team in the league.
  2. It's not about traditional line roles, but there have to be at least 8 guys that are competent PK players on the team. Most of the young guys were not drafted for being 2-way players, so until someone can fill those PK roles there's a place for a better than average 4th line skillset player. If the Sabres really get to a place where they have 12 forwards that can play 2nd line and up offensively, then they should be looking to package guys up for truly great 2-way players to fill out the 4th line and PK. Some forwards have to play D sometimes, we're not Toronto. FTR, I don't think this will really be an issue, the odds of every single rookie forward hitting this year are fairly slim. If it does become an issue, I don't have an issue trading Z away as long as a better all-around player comes back.
  3. Same. Teams aren't all young scoring forwards, if it really becomes a thing, maybe you trade one of the younger guys that don't fit into the plan for a piece that you need. If one of the younger guys truly matches Girgensens full skillset, then we can talk.
  4. I hope not. Well, not sure. I think I normal team could turn Matthews into enough very good pieces (a la the Eric Lindros or (hopefully) Eichel trades) to be a better team afterwards. Somehow, I think Toronto would do something dumb and they'd get worse.
  5. I think the stats (both fancy and not) do have a tough time with trending data vs. average. "well, last year xxx averaged below the league for the season, etc.". But as the Sabres are showing, that doesn't always make sense. At best, they stats folks will cut the data down to half a year or since Valentines Day or whatever to show that it's different. But I don't see many "over the course of the year this changed x" type stats. As others said above, this makes sense when you're dealing with relatively static players and doesn't cope well with very dynamic situations (like the Sabres, 2019-2022). I'm going to pick on @LGR4GMfor a second, in the Tage thread there's a lot of talk about his average shooting % over the last three years, but (IIRC) it's only gone up each year. You can't really take a meaningful average in that case; there's no stability in the data. I think the average that comes out (~11%?) does make sense, but the data used to get there would predict something ridiculous like 30% if taken at face value. This isn't to excoriate stats, I'm an engineer and I do believe math can explain a *lot* of things. People are still learning what predicts and what doesn't. I think as the methods get refined the stats will get better at seeing trends and not just averages.
  6. Yeah, there was such a big gap between #8 and #9, the top of the east were siphoning points from the hapless bottom half more than most years. In most years, the 7-8 teams would be battling the 9-10 teams down to the last week. 1st para: I think it's just the way it rolls. I remember a few years in the 90s or 2000s where there was a *clear* line between the playoff teams and not in the west. One year there were 7 good teams in the west, and then #8 had 88 points. It happens. 2nd: I seriously doubt any team is going to tank from #9 to try to get to #11 to gain a couple % chance. No owner is going to approve "Well, we may have a chance to get at least 2 more home games and have people in the seats right down to the wire. But if we lose a bunch of games, we can go from 0.8% to 2.6% of moving way up in the draft!"
  7. It's Buffalo, something will fall apart this year. Yes, 1991-1994, 1999, and 2000 scarred me, why do you ask? Also: Beasley to Tampa Bay... practice squad.
  8. Still surprised Suban didn't catch on anywhere. Or maybe it just wasn't worth a minimal offer to get beat up for a year to him.
  9. I understand this timeline where the Bills are good. I figure the wheels will fall off at some point.
  10. I think there's room for "This is the best offer we can make" and "Oh crap, we *have* to match this even though it doesn't make sense". And "we're not going to add even more to an offer we don't think makes sense".
  11. The Jets helmets are sharp. Is the league moving back to the darker colors rather than the primary colors that have been a thing for the last bunch of years? I have nothing else to say about this game.
  12. Might be some people weren't allowed back on the plane, lol.
  13. Nice work, thanks! Bold: Dallas had an abundance of good goaltending, did they not? I remember chatter about how they had to get rid of 1-2 because they had a log jam. Plus, it's the West where last year there wasn't as clear a line between the playoff and not teams I'd guess.
  14. Sounds like a case of reefer madness to me!
  15. Well, based on stat line, a similar aged guy with one good season: https://www.nhl.com/player/jordan-kyrou-8479385
  16. Although, someone really needs to do a Power ranking with the Sabres at #1, and everyone else tied for second with 0 Powers on the roster.
  17. Ah, now I see where you went off path. No one is doing research on the Sabres outside upstate NY and the diaspora.
  18. I've been reading the board more lately, and occasionally click on a topic, like a post or two, and then realize it's from 2018. I hope those 78s worked out for you, @darksabre.
  19. While the hopium is flowing here and we're chuckling at other teams moves, it's a pretty easy bet to put the Sabres roughly the same place as last year from the outside. The team hasn't made a splash in the off-season They appear to be running a 41-year-old and some other team's backup in net There will be like 10 rookies in the lineup (I exaggerate, but there are a bunch of unproven guys in the forward group) No one is going to risk saying the Sabres will be good this year given the past decade I don't think all these things are true, but it'd be easy for a few rookies to get sent back to the AHL, a sophomore slump, and an injured G to have the Sabres be terrible again.
  20. I mostly remember Roethlisburger being able to shed tackles due to his size. I don't know if I've seen a QB that's just as happy hurdling or throwing a stiff-arm as Allen, it's quite incredible.
  21. But (at least here), it's the same day so you're just checking one more box on the voter form. It's almost no extra work or time. I'm not sure how to process preferring your elected leaders electing the head of state. In the early USA, it was done this way in the Electoral College without a popular vote (don't get me started). I do believe a direct election will marginally represent the people better than letting politicians do it. The USA has a number of questionable ideas surrounding its elections, but actually directly electing the president (even in the broken rounding-error way we do it) is not one of the bad ideas.
  22. Ugh, figured. I suppose Ithaca might be in Rangers territory, but I doubt it.
  23. In-market? (Dare I hope, since I have that already)
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