Buffalo Bills 2017-18

[SwampD]

This is insane, right? Tyrod has a cannon arm when he wants to use it. Peterman literally has a noodle. Just because Tyrod has no touch when he tries it doesn't mean he doesn't have a good arm

Absolutely agree. I never said anything to the contrary.

[TrueBlueGED]

This is insane, right? Tyrod has a cannon arm when he wants to use it. Peterman literally has a noodle. Just because Tyrod has no touch when he tries it doesn't mean he doesn't have a good arm

Correct.

[darksabre]

Then explain why he wasn't taken until the 6th.

I literally just told you. It's because I think the NFL is stupid at drafting quarterbacks. Go watch tape of Brady at Michigan and tell me he should have been drafted that late. We've seen enough of Brady in my NFL to know that his play at Michigan translated directly to the pros.

[LGR4GM]

If Brady was drafted because of his combine numbers instead of smart analysis of his actual play, then the NFL is dumber than I think it is.

Casey Mittelstadt slid in the draft because of pull ups. Sports teams are dumb.

[WildCard]

Absolutely agree. I never said anything to the contrary.

But Peterman has literally the worst arm outside of Trevor Seimian in the league

 

Side not, I'm glad he's done, cause I'm sick of trying to spell his name

[SwampD]

But Peterman has literally the worst arm outside of Trevor Seimian in the league

 

Side not, I'm glad he's done, cause I'm sick of trying to spell his name

I think you need to look up the word "literally".

[WildCard]

I think you need to look up the word "literally".

Think you need to watch more Peterman highlights

[Gramps]

I literally just told you. It's because I think the NFL is stupid at drafting quarterbacks. Go watch tape of Brady at Michigan and tell me he should have been drafted that late. We've seen enough of Brady in my NFL to know that his play at Michigan translated directly to the pros.

 

Bull, scouts spend hundreds of hours looking at tape and I'm sure Brady was no exception. Brady probably would be out of the league had he been drafted by anyone other than New England and had Belichick as his coach.

[Eleven]

Bull, scouts spend hundreds of hours looking at tape and I'm sure Brady was no exception. Brady probably would be out of the league had he been drafted by anyone other than New England and had Belichick as his coach.

 

And the Bledsoe injury.

 

He never would have seen the field.

 

Those who think that Peterman could have been "Buffalo's Brady" have now seen him on the field.  Three times.  He sucks.

[darksabre]

Bull, scouts spend hundreds of hours looking at tape and I'm sure Brady was no exception. Brady probably would be out of the league had he been drafted by anyone other than New England and had Belichick as his coach.

I disagree. The guy has talent by the buckets. He makes throws that no one else in the league makes, and we know that now because he had a chance to prove it. He's not lucky, he's not a system quarterback. He's just good.

[TrueBlueGED]

Bull, scouts spend hundreds of hours looking at tape and I'm sure Brady was no exception. Brady probably would be out of the league had he been drafted by anyone other than New England and had Belichick as his coach.

Scouts and GMs have pretty significant stylistic biases, however. Generally they want guys who look "like quarterbacks" - stand tall in the pocket and try to make traditional throws. The success of those throws is almost irrelevant so long as the QB looks "right" trying. It's how somebody like Trubisky gets drafted ahead of Watson, and Joe Flacco ends up the highest paid player in the league.

[darksabre]

And the Bledsoe injury.

 

He never would have seen the field.

 

Those who think that Peterman could have been "Buffalo's Brady" have now seen him on the field. Three times. He sucks.

Peterman is predictably bad.

Scouts and GMs have pretty significant stylistic biases, however. Generally they want guys who look "like quarterbacks" - stand tall in the pocket and try to make traditional throws. The success of those throws is almost irrelevant so long as the QB looks "right" trying. It's how somebody like Trubisky gets drafted ahead of Watson, and Joe Flacco ends up the highest paid player in the league.

Yup. What a quarterback "looks like" is like thinking Ryan O'Reilly should be Captain because he has a beard.

[Gramps]

Scouts and GMs have pretty significant stylistic biases, however. Generally they want guys who look "like quarterbacks" - stand tall in the pocket and try to make traditional throws. The success of those throws is almost irrelevant so long as the QB looks "right" trying. It's how somebody like Trubisky gets drafted ahead of Watson, and Joe Flacco ends up the highest paid player in the league.

 

If that's the case and Brady could make all of the throws at Michigan, why wasn't he taken until the 6th ? 

[TrueBlueGED]

If that's the case and Brady could make all of the throws at Michigan, why wasn't he taken until the 6th ?

You're directing this at the wrong person, as I don't agree with D4rk's analysis of Brady's college days. I was simply agreeing that scouting is flawed and nobody knows how to evaluate QB transition to the NFL with any consistency.

[Gramps]

You're directing this at the wrong person, as I don't agree with D4rk's analysis of Brady's college days. I was simply agreeing that scouting is flawed and nobody knows how to evaluate QB transition to the NFL with any consistency.

 

Sorry, was more of a general comment. But to your point, no doubt teams have biases as to the ideal QB and I'd like to know what Beane is thinking. 

[ubkev]

Taylor is an average QB.

 

I know plenty of people who wanted Peterman because he is white. Two people actually told me this. I mean it. I do NOT mean people on this board, however.

 

I've been told by no less than 4 eagles fans(while they were trashing my boy, Donovan McNabb) "now, I'm not racist but...the only two players on my team that NEED to be white are the QB and the kicker!"

 

It's at that point that you wish you weren't at work and you could call them the piece of ignorant, racist trash that they are. Alas, I just get to take all their money. And they get to stay crappy.

[SwampD]

It really was just an awful football game yesterday.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

It really was just an awful football game yesterday.

 

Both teams played very boring / bad offence.  It looked as if neither really wanted to win and go on to be slaughtered next week.

[That Aud Smell]

All of his passes had way more zip to them than TT ever puts on it. Other than the one bad decision when he was under takle and just should have not thrown the ball, he has hit the receivers' right in the hands (or helmet) and the ball bounced up in the air to be picked off. His arm is plenty strong.

 

Yeah - I'm just gonna disagree. His arm strength looks below average to me insofar as NFL QBs go. 

 

Peterman's combine velocity was middle of the pack, but I agree that he has more than TT. 

 

That's damning with faint praise.

 

Taylor has shown the ability to throw a good long ball (although less and less so of late), but he does not have much of an arm. Can Taylor scorch a ball into a small window? Hell no.

 

I lost track. Who said Taylor has a cannon for an arm? Puh-leez. He can put some air under a nice spiral. Doesn't mean he has a cannon.

 

I'm not. I think the NFL is just the most stupid when it comes to drafting its biggest position of need. How many bad quarterbacks get taken every year? It shouldn't be this hard. A guy like Brady should never fly under the radar given his ability to thread the needle on contested throws throughout his college career. So many bad QB's get taken just because they're good at hitting wide-open receivers. Big whoop.

 

You'd think they'd be able to look at a quarterback at this point and pick them based on quality of opponent, quality of coverage, etc. Brady was obviously good once you know what to look for: a quarterback who can make throws to literally anyone you plug in at receiver. Should that not be the archetype?

 

Hmmm. I dunno, man. The fact that highly experienced, highly trained people spend 1000s of hours trying to hit on these QBs, and fail far more often than they succeed, suggests to me that the task is a difficult one, not, as you seem to posit, that there are dozens, even hundreds of stupid, cowardly people doing the work.

 

The scouts do cling to the things that can be readily quantified. I think that's because the other stuff -- so much of it mental (like, will a prospect learn to identify a cover 4 and, within seconds, understand that his outside receiver will be singled with the weaker of the opponent's two corners?) -- is so difficult to quantify and predict.

 

This is insane, right? Tyrod has a cannon arm when he wants to use it. Peterman literally has a noodle. Just because Tyrod has no touch when he tries it doesn't mean he doesn't have a good arm

 

Ah, there it is. Tyrod does not have a cannon. He probably has low-average NFL arm strength. He also lacks touch, as you say. And accuracy.

 

Taylor is firmly nestled in the bottom third of the league's starting QBs. He's capable of making spectacular plays; persistently incapable of making routine ones.

[PASabreFan]

Think you need to watch more Peterman highlights

Are you saying he's on the yam yam?

 

And the Bledsoe injury.

 

He never would have seen the field.

 

Those who think that Peterman could have been "Buffalo's Brady" have now seen him on the field.  Three times.  He sucks.

We had our quarterback. We never should have let him retire. Jim Kelly.

[JohnRobertEichel]

Meh. I'm convinced it's mostly a crapshoot anyway.

 

 

I don't agree with this at all. 22 of the 27 franchise QB's in the league were drafted within the top 36 picks. The 5 exceptions are: Tom Brady (199th in 2000), Russell Wilson (75th in 2012), Kirk Cousins (102nd in 2012), Jimmy Garoppolo (62nd in 2014), and Dak Prescott (135th in 2016). The 5 teams without a franchise QB at the moment are: Bills, Jets, Browns, Broncos, and Cardinals. By "franchise QB" I mean a player whom the team views as a long-term NFL starter, or I suppose in the case of the over-35 QB crowd, a guy who has been viewed as the long-term QB solution during his career.

 

So basically, NFL scouts must be doing something right in their evaluations if they rarely find a starting-caliber QB outside the early 2nd round. That's not the case for any of the other football positions. Part of that is because QB is by far the most scrutinized position.

 

QB's get evaluated on the following: arm strength, throwing accuracy, release mechanics (particularly release time), mobility, intelligence (ability to process information quickly on field, understand complex playbooks, read defensive formations, etc.), character (maturity, leadership, work ethics), and school (quality of competition, quality of talent around him, experience in a pro-level offense system). 

 

First-round busts occur - just like the occasional late-round gem - because the evaluation process can never be an exact science whenever you are dealing with young adult humans.

 

I believe the Bills have been sucking at the franchise QB drafting game since the mid-90's because they have been consistently overestimating the importance of arm strength at the expense of other attributes like throwing accuracy, release time, and intelligence.

 

At this point, going into free agency and the draft, there shouldn't be any disagreement as to how the current Buffalo QB's are perceived. Tyrod Taylor is nothing more than an excellent back-up NFL QB, though maybe he can still play out the final year of his contract here in a caretaker role for a franchise QB since cutting Taylor would create a $7.5 million cap hit despite $10 million in cap savings. Looking at Nathan Peterman as anything more than a third-string project QB would be setting up the 2018 season for disaster. Joe Webb is strictly a change-of-pace back-up QB.

 

I'll talk about our QB options in free agency and the draft at another time. It's too early right now to say what the Bills should do with any conviction. We still need to see what the Redskins want to do with Cousins, the Vikings with Bradford/Bridgewater/Keenum, the Chiefs with Smith, what veteran QB's are going to retire, and which college QB's fully declare for the draft before even attempting to suggest a path to take.

 

But one thing is now crystal clear: the Buffalo Bills need a franchise QB because they don't currently have one who can take them to the Super Bowl without the help of a 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens defense.

[That Aud Smell]

I don't agree with this at all. 22 of the 27 franchise QB's in the league were drafted within the top 36 picks. The 5 exceptions are: Tom Brady (199th in 2000), Russell Wilson (75th in 2012), Kirk Cousins (102nd in 2012), Jimmy Garoppolo (62nd in 2014), and Dak Prescott (135th in 2016). The 5 teams without a franchise QB at the moment are: Bills, Jets, Browns, Broncos, and Cardinals. By "franchise QB" I mean a player whom the team views as a long-term NFL starter, or I suppose in the case of the over-35 QB crowd, a guy who has been viewed as the long-term QB solution during his career.

 

So basically, NFL scouts must be doing something right in their evaluations if they rarely find a starting-caliber QB outside the early 2nd round. That's not the case for any of the other football positions. Part of that is because QB is by far the most scrutinized position.

 

I was imprecise, I think.

 

I don't mean to suggest that it's a crapshoot, as in, you may as well try to get your Brady in round 6 rather than get your Peyton Manning at #1 overall. I am sure that the overwhelming majority of good (or better) starting QBs are taken in round 1 or 2.

 

What I mean is that, within those first two rounds, the matter of getting the right guy seems fairly random (and even a bit unlikely). 

 

Peyton Manning, Luck, and Cam Newton went first overall. But so did Alex Smith, Tim Couch, Jeff George, Jamarcus Russell, and David Carr.

 

Donovan McNabb and Carson Wentz went 2nd overall. But so did Rick Mirer and Ryan Leaf.

 

Matt Ryan went third overall, but then again so did a thing called Joey Harrington, as well as chumps like Vince Young, Blake Bortles, Heath Shuler, and Akili Smith.

 

You say Philip Rivers? I say Jake Locker.

 

You say Ben Roethlisberger? I say Blaine Gabbert.

 

Like I said, it seems pretty random. I am sure that there are some scouts who are better at it than others. But I think I'd rather be lucky than good when it comes to getting the next great signal caller.

[MattPie]

I was imprecise, I think.

 

I don't mean to suggest that it's a crapshoot, as in, you may as well try to get your Brady in round 6 rather than get your Peyton Manning at #1 overall. I am sure that the overwhelming majority of good (or better) starting QBs are taken in round 1 or 2.

 

What I mean is that, within those first two rounds, the matter of getting the right guy seems fairly random (and even a bit unlikely). 

 

Peyton Manning, Luck, and Cam Newton went first overall. But so did Alex Smith, Tim Couch, Jeff George, Jamarcus Russell, and David Carr.

 

Donovan McNabb and Carson Wentz went 2nd overall. But so did Rick Mirer and Ryan Leaf.

 

Matt Ryan went third overall, but then again so did a thing called Joey Harrington, as well as chumps like Vince Young, Blake Bortles, Heath Shuler, and Akili Smith.

 

You say Philip Rivers? I say Jake Locker.

 

You say Ben Roethlisberger? I say Blaine Gabbert.

 

Like I said, it seems pretty random. I am sure that there are some scouts who are better at it than others. But I think I'd rather be lucky than good when it comes to getting the next great signal caller.

Nicely done. I'm starting to like my "take a QB with 21 and 22" idea even more; get two kicks at the can, LOL. I think with all the video and scouting and metrics, like hockey it's going to be harder and harder to find diamonds in the rough. They'll happen, but it won't even be as common in the future as it has been in the past.

[TrueBlueGED]

 

I was imprecise, I think.

 

I don't mean to suggest that it's a crapshoot, as in, you may as well try to get your Brady in round 6 rather than get your Peyton Manning at #1 overall. I am sure that the overwhelming majority of good (or better) starting QBs are taken in round 1 or 2.

 

What I mean is that, within those first two rounds, the matter of getting the right guy seems fairly random (and even a bit unlikely).

 

Peyton Manning, Luck, and Cam Newton went first overall. But so did Alex Smith, Tim Couch, Jeff George, Jamarcus Russell, and David Carr.

 

Donovan McNabb and Carson Wentz went 2nd overall. But so did Rick Mirer and Ryan Leaf.

 

Matt Ryan went third overall, but then again so did a thing called Joey Harrington, as well as chumps like Vince Young, Blake Bortles, Heath Shuler, and Akili Smith.

 

You say Philip Rivers? I say Jake Locker.

 

You say Ben Roethlisberger? I say Blaine Gabbert.

 

Like I said, it seems pretty random. I am sure that there are some scouts who are better at it than others. But I think I'd rather be lucky than good when it comes to getting the next great signal caller.

Exactly this. Scouts are good at figuring out a group of players most likely to succeed, but really bad at discerning who among the most likely to succeed is most likely to succeed (I swear I'm, like, really smart. Bordering on stable genius, really).

 

Put a little differently, teams effectively identify those who won't make it, but are basically a coin flip to identify those who will be good.

[WildCard]

Exactly this. Scouts are good at figuring out a group of players most likely to succeed, but really bad at discerning who among the most likely to succeed is most likely to succeed (I swear I'm, like, really smart. Bordering on stable genius, really).

 

Put a little differently, teams effectively identify those who won't make it, but are basically a coin flip to identify those who will be good.

These don't go together