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That Aud Smell

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About That Aud Smell

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    The Nostalgic Olfactory Blend

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    Bobcaygeon, Ontario

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  1. That Aud Smell

    Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

    Ah. I dig. It's mos def part of the picture. It's a bit of an aberration is all (imo). But those happen! Frequently, in fact.
  2. That Aud Smell

    Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

    how could it properly be disregarded? it happened. it should be regarded in its proper context.
  3. That Aud Smell

    Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

    roughly. which, i think, is the point. STL probably needs the balance of the season to level out to where their underlying numbers predict they should be. and it still may not happen.
  4. That Aud Smell

    Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

    I don't know enough about the metrics, tbh, but I don't think they're ever really off. They may require additional context, of course. My understanding is that STL was good to very good on things like Corsi, shot share, expected goal differential -- all that good stuff -- but was still muddling around in terms of actual points. My guess is that something like PDO -- sometimes linked with "puck luck" -- was suppressing their points. I would also disagree that, if the underlying metrics are not in line with a 10-game win streak, then the metrics need to be adjusted. Rather, the metrics are predicting that what's happening is unsustainable from a production standpoint. But things like randomness, chaos theory (!), PDO, "getting the bounces," and so on have roles to play as well. Those are just harder to predict, or count on. A few years ago, COL had an entire season that sort of defied their metrics. IIRC, they crashed back to earth the following season. One problem with deploying the metrics comes when people who don't quite understand them in context (e.g., me) try to explain and apply them. I probably know just enough to be dangerous, as they say.
  5. That Aud Smell

    English Premier League 2018-2019

    COYR. I declared for Liverpool years ago based on Bill Simmons' write-up for the EPL that he did for ESPN's fledgling online presence. It was the song that got me. That, and it was the home of the Beatles. My fandom has crept up on me. When Gerrard slipped, I was bummed -- but not quite bummed like a fan would be. Nowadays, I find myself thinking about the title race as much, if not more, than the Sabres' fortunes. Nervy stuff. City is a machine.
  6. That Aud Smell

    GDT: NY Rangers @ Buffalo Sabres, 2/15/2019 @ 7:00 PM ET

    Friday night. Rangers in town. Should be a fun atmosphere in the building. Let's go, Buffalo! man, is he still slight. imagine him in 3 years' time?
  7. That Aud Smell

    Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

    Because most (nearly all of) their underlying metrics have been better all season long than what the Sabres had during their streak. And most of those same metrics were predicting more success than they were having when they were firmly in lottery territory. Many here have said they improved when their goaltending improved; I suspect their overall PDO had been abnormally low, too. The Sabres' underlying metrics did not support a 10-game win streak. By that measure, they were playing pretty well, IIRC, but not *that* well. That run was magical.
  8. That Aud Smell

    Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

    Interesting. But isn't Frodo more of an unheralded bottom 6 forward who does all the little things, the dirty work, kills penalties, blocks shots? ROR is leading his team in points. That seems more like Orc-slaughtering badassery, to me. Perhaps this warrants its own thread - lol.
  9. That Aud Smell

    Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

    Not for nothing: He's trending toward being an 80-point player this season. With some distance from the trade, and perhaps in light of the numbers he's posting this season, I am more resolute than ever that there were non-on-ice considerations of which we are ignorant, but which have been talked about here as rumours and/or insider information, that compelled this trade to happen. For that reason, I think it's a fool's errand to talk about the Sabres potentially winning that trade in terms of hockey assets. JBOT did not move a player of ROR's quality in the manner he did without good cause. (Btw, I'm not saying it was the right decision -- just that a rational GM perceived good cause.) This was a bitter, jagged pill to swallow.
  10. That Aud Smell

    Buffalo Bills 2019-2020

  11. That Aud Smell

    Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

  12. That Aud Smell

    Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

    ^ Good take, and instructive rumour/insight. I don’t think there can be any dispute that something significant motivated JBOT to make a very difficult decision on ROR. From a strict on-ice hockey perspective, it made little sense. So ... something was obviously afoot.
  13. That Aud Smell

    Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

    I think it's misleading to state it that way. He was doing yeoman's work when aspects of the team were struggling around him, and he's still doing that work now that reinforcements have arrived. Edit: If you'll allow it: Aragorn (from Lord of the Rings (sorry)) is slaughtering every orc in his path during a lengthy battle, but his fighting unit is ill-suited to the battle and losing. But, lo. A cavalry of men arrives (blowing the horn of ... something) and the tide steadily turns. Aragorn continues to do what he'd been doing. Good guys prevail. Aragorn may not have been the moving force in the turnaround, but he was instrumental to the victory. Gah. I think I hate myself for that one.
  14. That Aud Smell

    Around the NHL 2018-2019

    If true, those stories may continue to dog him. If not "his," "whose" team is St. Louis?