Seattle Expansion Protection List

[rakish]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

<snip>

These conversations are pointless because the underlying theme is the pro-Borgen camp sees him as McCabe and Risto as Meszaros, whereas the pro-Risto camp sees Borgen as Mike Weber and Risto as Tyler Myers.

This is why a teams valuation system is critical, because if you do non-contextual valuation (like analytics), you will hate all the players that play against Marchand, and love all the players that don't. I believe that once you have a analysis model that you believe in, you no longer see the player fairly, but your perception is highly influenced by the numerical valuation.

I tried to get @Randall Flagg and @Hoss to test this theory by watching Sabres' highlights to see if they could make me see one of the Sabres I hate, play well.

Edited July 14, 2021 by rakish
comma required for readability

[WildCard]

 

[nfreeman]

8 minutes ago, WildCard said:

 

Not surprising, and an indicator that they are very unlikely to make a deal with KA to take Skinner.

[Marvin]

So what is our list as of now?

F- Eichel, Reinhart, Olofsson, Asplund, Mittlestadt, Thompson, Bjork

D - Dahlin, Borgen, Jokiharu

G - Who?

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

So what is our list as of now?

F- Eichel, Reinhart, Olofsson, Asplund, Mittlestadt, Thompson, Bjork

D - Dahlin, Borgen, Jokiharu

G - Who?

Would expect Ristolainen rather than Borgen, but yes.  That's the list at present.

[pi2000]

Borgen is overrated

[darksabre]

24 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Borgen is overrated

I agree. At this point maybe he projects to Mark Pysyk, which isn't bad. But it's still so early.

[WildCard]

24 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Borgen is overrated

 

Just now, darksabre said:

I agree. At this point maybe he projects to Mark Pysyk, which isn't bad. But it's still so early.

The concept of Borgen is a real thing

[pi2000]

Just now, darksabre said:

I agree. At this point maybe he projects to Mark Pysyk, which isn't bad. But it's still so early.

Even that projection is a bit optimistic IMHO.

[Hoss]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

They could have had Ehlers several years ago. 

I still think if this were true it would have happened 

[Thwomp!]

I give up.  We've had 8 years of ***** Risto.  4 more years! 4 more years!

I don't know how you expect this team to get better by keeping the same players.  We highly overrate our players, especially Risto.  We are dead ***** last again, folks!

First team to ever finish 31st, let's go for another record.

41 minutes ago, WildCard said:

 

The concept of Borgen is a real thing

The concept of Risto has been tried for 8 years.  The data is in.  There's no "concept" more false than Buffalo's view of Ristolainen.

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, rakish said:

This is why a teams valuation system is critical, because if you do non-contextual valuation (like analytics), you will hate all the players that play against Marchand, and love all the players that don't. I believe that once you have a analysis model that you believe in, you no longer see the player fairly, but your perception is highly influenced by the numerical valuation.

I tried to get @Randall Flagg and @Hoss to test this theory by watching Sabres' highlights to see if they could make me see one of the Sabres I hate, play well.

I'm still gonna do this. But I'm going on vacation and things have been a whirlwind. July 25th and my summer plans are over and I can relax. 

---------‐-------------

 

It's not really about Borgen, it's about choosing between a guy who wants out when we are trying to build culture,who is guaranteed to only give you one year of hockey, versus young players you have control over and have shown promise  while still far below their ceiling. It is a stupid move to keep Risto for a year and then have nothing while letting Seattle pick one of your young D. The only way setting it up that way makes sense is that you're locked in on a Risto deal whose return is better than Borgen, but for some reason you can't make that deal until after expansion

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, sabresparaavida said:

It’s actually more like 35%

I just went with the fact 21 of the 31 picks in the 2nd round of Borgen’s draft year have played more than 8 NHL games. 89 picks in that draft have played more NHL games.

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Borgen as Mike Weber is more valuable than Risto. 

Idc what ppl think of either, but Risto will not be on this team after July 1st 2022. Why protect him? I think you should trade him. 

I think you should too. Before the ED if you can get full value, after if it increases the return.

Picture this scenario:

Pittsburgh says they will trade you a 1st rounder for Risto, but only after the expansion draft because they want to use their protection slots.

You can:

A) protect Risto, expose Borgen, trade Risto for a first rounder.

B) protect Borgen, expose Risto.

Under this scenario, your choice is Borgen or a first rounder.

I decide whether or not to protect Risto based on his potential trade return versus my opinion of Borgen as an unproven minor leaguer with #5D upside.

Edited July 14, 2021 by dudacek

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Borgen is overrated

I think it’s too early to tell.  He hasn’t played much to be rated. 

[LGR4GM]

47 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I just went with the fact 21 of the 31 picks in the 2nd round of Borgen’s draft year have played more than 8 NHL games. 89 picks in that draft have played more NHL games.

I think you should too. Before the ED if you can get full value, after if it increases the return.

Picture this scenario:

Pittsburgh says they will trade you a 1st rounder for Risto, but only after the expansion draft because they want to use their protection slots.

You can:

A) protect Risto, expose Borgen, trade Risto for a first rounder.

B) protect Borgen, expose Risto.

Under this scenario, your choice is Borgen or a first rounder.

I decide whether or not to protect Risto based on his potential trade return versus my opinion of Borgen as an unproven minor leaguer with #5D upside.

You've found the only loophole. That said, Pittsburgh doesn't own a first round pick. 

If that is the case fine, we will know in a week but that seems unlikely. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

If I'm Adams I protect Borgen and expose Risto.  It is ulikely that Seattle will take Risto and it is more likely they take Borgen, IMO.

I think that Risto is a fine player, but his days in Buffalo are numbered, if we take Adams at face value concerning players wanting to be here.  If Seattle takes him, again I doubt they will, so be it.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

If I'm Adams I protect Borgen and expose Risto.  It is ulikely that Seattle will take Risto and it is more likely they take Borgen, IMO.

I think that Risto is a fine player, but his days in Buffalo are numbered, if we take Adams at face value concerning players wanting to be here.  If Seattle takes him, again I doubt they will, so be it.

Why do you doubt Seattle takes him?  He fits the profile of the players that Vegas took.  Experienced and gritty, maybe not reaching the level our organization wanted, so now looking for a new start and willing to play with a chip on his shoulder for being unprotected.  
 

I think Risto being unprotected is a waste of an asset.   If he can be moved for an NHL goaltender that would be useful.  

Edited July 14, 2021 by Pimlach

[Hoss]

Seattle would take Risto in a millisecond if he were exposed. You don’t expose an asset like Risto. We’ve lost our minds.

[pi2000]

Risto is overrated

[Marvin]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I just went with the fact 21 of the 31 picks in the 2nd round of Borgen’s draft year have played more than 8 NHL games. 89 picks in that draft have played more NHL games.

I think you should too. Before the ED if you can get full value, after if it increases the return.

Picture this scenario:

Pittsburgh says they will trade you a 1st rounder for Risto, but only after the expansion draft because they want to use their protection slots.

You can:

A) protect Risto, expose Borgen, trade Risto for a first rounder.

B) protect Borgen, expose Risto.

Under this scenario, your choice is Borgen or a first rounder.

I decide whether or not to protect Risto based on his potential trade return versus my opinion of Borgen as an unproven minor leaguer with #5D upside.

What fool would offer a 1st rounder for someone with as bad metrics as Ristolainen?

[Radar]

40 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Risto is overrated

He's also underrated by an equal number it seems.

[dudacek]

57 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

What fool would offer a 1st rounder for someone with as bad metrics as Ristolainen?

What fool would turn down trading Risto for Taylor Hall or Nikolai Ehlers? Or make those offers?

What fool would skate Ristolainen 20-plus minutes a game?

It’s pretty clear that the disdain analytics people have for Risto is not universally held by NHL hockey executives.

I have no idea what Risto would garner in a trade - the question fascinates me - but I believe he is worth more than than the waiver claim many would seem to think is more than his ceiling.

We may see the answer soon.

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Risto is overrated

Is there a player on this team that you *don't* feel is overrated?

[JohnC]

36 minutes ago, dudacek said:

What fool would turn down trading Risto for Taylor Hall or Nikolai Ehlers? Or make those offers?

What fool would skate Ristolainen 20-plus minutes a game?

It’s pretty clear that the disdain analytics people have for Risto is not universally held by NHL hockey executives.

I have no idea what Risto would garner in a trade - the question fascinates me - but I believe he is worth more than than the waiver claim many would seem to think is more than his ceiling.

We may see the answer soon.

 WGR's Instigator Show today he talked about how other teams more positively view Risto than the home crowd does. He said that when he talks to the scouts and other teams' staffs the general view is that he is misused and overplayed. He pointed that it should be recognized that playing on a bad team doesn't enhance his play. Ray's thoughts on Risto is that if his playing time was more limited and his role of usually playing against the top players on the other teams were more limited he would be more effective. He also stated that there is plenty of interest in him as a player from other organizations. 

[Pimlach]

14 minutes ago, JohnC said:

 WGR's Instigator Show today he talked about how other teams more positively view Risto than the home crowd does. He said that when he talks to the scouts and other teams' staffs the general view is that he is misused and overplayed. He pointed that it should be recognized that playing on a bad team doesn't enhance his play. Ray's thoughts on Risto is that if his playing time was more limited and his role of usually playing against the top players on the other teams were more limited he would be more effective. He also stated that there is plenty of interest in him as a player from other organizations. 

He will be force as a 2nd pair defenseman on a good team.