Jump to content

Skinner Contract Watch


Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

We are probably going to get a real solid player in the draft. Right? Can't that player (I have not looked at the draft yet) step in a contribute in Skinners role? With the money we save we could improve our bottom 6 with someone who is solid and could score 15-20 goals, something that would be a big help. 

 

Does that that sound reasonable? 

The only player that could step in specifically to Skinner's role next year and be expected to produce (probably in the 15g range) would be Kaapo Kakko. So no, I would not say it is reasonable. If you don't get Hughes or Kakko, I would argue that the player drafted is at least 1-2 years away from the NHL. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The really issue is will Skinner go full Moulson and decline into irrelevance. 

That could never happen!  *ignores second have of season*

Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, sweetlou said:

The last few good LW to sign as UFA's last year were Evander Kane, James VanRiemsdyk, and Max Pacioretty, and they all signed for $7mil AAV. Is Skinner worth more or the same as all these guys?

Kane- GP- 647, G- 215, A- 192, Pts- 407

Van Riemsdyk- GP-673, G- 227, A- 212, Pts- 439

Pacioretty- GP-690, G- 248, A-240, Pts- 488

Skinner- GP- 659, G- 242, A- 198, Pts-440

I'm still sticking to my original idea that he will sign for 7 years at $53 million, an AAV of $7.57.

 

Look around the league, who has salary cap space that they can offer him $8 mil?

With projected cap at 82 million, how much team would have available, and needed players to reach 23 man roster.

Buffalo- $25 million - 4 players.     Plays with Jack. 

Florida- $20 million - 7 players.    Up and coming team, not enough money to go around.

Montreal- $18 million - 6 players.    Good team, would probably fit in nicely, but do they have enough money to fill the roster?

Ottawa- $36 million - 8 players.   Lots of money, close to home, does Skinner want to go to another rebuilding team?

Columbus- $32 million - 9 players.   Would be a good fit. Does Columbus try and retain any of their own UFA's?

NJ- $32 million - 6 players.  Another rebuilding team. No true #1 center.

NYI- $34 million - 7 players.  Have a lot of their own UFA's. Potential team if they try new faces.

NYR- $20 million - 6 players.   Not enough money to go around...Panerin destination??

Philadelphia- $34 million - 9 players.  They love to overpay UFA's?

San Jose- $24 million- 8 players.  After retaining Pavelski, how much do they really have?

Vancouver- $20 million- 3 players.  Opportunity to play with Petterson? Scary thought.

 

So to conclude it looks like Vancouver, Ottawa, Columbus, NJ, NYI, Philly would be only teams making a pitch for Skinner besides Buffalo.

 

 

 

Doesn’t the date, they signed those contracts mean anything to you? How about the age they signed them? How about the years of UFA were bought?

They do with me.

Edited by Zamboni
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Doesn’t the date, they signed those contracts mean nothing to you? How about the age they signed them? How about the years of UFA were bought?

They do with me.

They should and I think that's why he picked those players. They are of a similar age, similar career numbers, similar contract status — they have undoubtedly all been used as comparables during the negotiations.

They all signed last summer as UFAs or pending UFAs. Kane was the same age, Van Riemsdyk a year or two older, Pacioretty year older than that.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

They should and I think that's why he picked those players. They are of a similar age, similar career numbers, similar contract status — they have undoubtedly all been used as comparables during the negotiations.

They all signed last summer as UFAs or pending UFAs. Kane was the same age, Van Riemsdyk a year or two older, Pacioretty year older than that.

Well I would throw Pac right out.

Comparables to me ...

no more than 1 calendar year in age in either direction

no more than 1 year ago signing a contract.

Comparable to a very very similar production average of no more than 3 prior years. 

wingers only from the top 2 lines of their teams.

and finally take into account percentage of team cap the contract takes up. Knowing the cap is most likely going up and up and up over the course of the next 7 years.

I would be shocked if he signs less than 7.5. Expecting 8.0. Surprised if it’s above 8.5.

at max or near max term.

Edited by Zamboni
Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The only player that could step in specifically to Skinner's role next year and be expected to produce (probably in the 15g range) would be Kaapo Kakko. So no, I would not say it is reasonable. If you don't get Hughes or Kakko, I would argue that the player drafted is at least 1-2 years away from the NHL. 

Sabres need both Skinner and pick

Edited by North Buffalo
  • Like (+1) 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Well I would throw Pac right out.

Comparables to me ...

no more than 1 calendar year in age in either direction

no more than 1 year ago signing a contract.

Comparable to a very very similar production average of no more than 3 prior years. 

wingers only from the top 2 lines of their teams.

and finally take into account percentage of team cap the contract takes up. Knowing the cap is most likely going up and up and up over the course of the next 7 years.

I would be shocked if he signs less than 7.5. Expecting 8.0. Surprised if it’s above 8.5.

at max or near max term.

Under those criteria, I think Kane may be your only comparable. He signed for $49 million over seven years.

Cap expected to go up four per cent. Using that, Kane's $7 cap hit translates to $7.3.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Not to be too harsh, but I am supposed to listen to posters tell me exactly how it's going to go down from here when they were sure Skinner was going to be signed by now? Long before now actually.

In the blind hog category I thought Skinner would go to free agency. Looking good at the moment.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Not to be too harsh, but I am supposed to listen to posters tell me exactly how it's going to go down from here when they were sure Skinner was going to be signed by now? Long before now actually.

In the blind hog category I thought Skinner would go to free agency. Looking good at the moment.

I think everyone is just guessing best they can.  No one has to take anyone else’s view as fact.

Personally, I hoped that he would be signing by now and still hope that he signs, but I would rather he walk than overpay him.  I would probably consider anything above 7.5 to be an overpayment on a 7-8 year deal.

Edited by Curtisp5286
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Under those criteria, I think Kane may be your only comparable. He signed for $49 million over seven years.

Cap expected to go up four per cent. Using that, Kane's $7 cap hit translates to $7.3.

 Thanks for that! That’s good info. Who in your opinion is more streaky E. Kane or Skinner? Who do you think brings more to the table besides just pure goal scoring, Kane or Skinner?    And finally who complements his line mates better, Kane or Skinner? I know I have my thoughts about that.

Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

 Thanks for that! That’s good info. Who in your opinion is more streaky E. Kane or Skinner? Who do you think brings more to the table besides just pure goal scoring, Kane or Skinner?    And finally who complements his line mates better, Kane or Skinner? I know I have my thoughts about that.

And those thoughts are?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Drew Stafford was always Drew Stafford. He was the exact same. 

The really issue is will Skinner go full Moulson and decline into irrelevance. 

Moulson was slow when he was signed, I do not believe we will see the same level of regression from Skinner

Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Not to be too harsh, but I am supposed to listen to posters tell me exactly how it's going to go down from here when they were sure Skinner was going to be signed by now? Long before now actually.

In the blind hog category I thought Skinner would go to free agency. Looking good at the moment.

I think Skinner’s goal in the negotiations was to maximize his contract in Buffalo. If it means taking things down to the pre-July 1 courting period, he’d do it. I’ve always thought the location, on-ice fit and cap fit line up better for both sides in Buffalo than anywhere else.

I do wonder though if the on-ice collapse of the team has affected Skinner’s thinking at all. And I wonder if circumstances for other teams will change enough between now and the end of June to improve the chances of more viable opportunities surfacing.

Botterill has not looked adept at maximizing deadlines in the Kane and O’Reilly negotiations and I wonder if a similar situation is developing here.

33 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

 Thanks for that! That’s good info. Who in your opinion is more streaky E. Kane or Skinner? Who do you think brings more to the table besides just pure goal scoring, Kane or Skinner?    And finally who complements his line mates better, Kane or Skinner? I know I have my thoughts about that.

I think the raw value of each player is roughly comparable.

Skinner is a better goal scorer, but Kane can score. Kane a better forechecker and physical presence, but Skinner can agitate. They are both great skaters; Kane has more straightline speed, Skinner more agility. Neither is a good passer or uses his teammates particularly well, both can be selfish with the puck. I’d rather have Kane in the D zone and the rush, Skinner in the O zone and the room. 

I think they are close enough that it comes down to what your team needs most.

Skinner is definitely a better fit right now for Buffalo and I think that’s what JBot had in mind with the decisions he made around each.

  • Like (+1) 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Moulson was slow when he was signed, I do not believe we will see the same level of regression from Skinner

Assuming he doesn’t get hurt, I agree.  Skinner’s skating ability will keep him relevant longer than most.

Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think Skinner’s goal in the negotiations was to maximize his contract in Buffalo. If it means taking things down to the pre-July 1 courting period, he’d do it. I’ve always thought the location, on-ice fit and cap fit line up better for both sides in Buffalo than anywhere else.

I do wonder though if the on-ice collapse of the team has affected Skinner’s thinking at all. And I wonder if circumstances for other teams will change enough between now and the end of June to improve the chances of more viable opportunities surfacing.

Botterill has not looked adept at maximizing deadlines in the Kane and O’Reilly negotiations and I wonder if a similar situation is developing here.

I think the raw value of each player is roughly comparable.

Skinner is a better goal scorer, but Kane can score. Kane a better forechecker and physical presence, but Skinner can agitate. They are both great skaters; Kane has more straightline speed, Skinner more agility. Neither is a good passer or uses his teammates particularly well, both can be selfish with the puck. I’d rather have Kane in the D zone and the rush, Skinner in the O zone and the room. 

I think they are close enough that it comes down to what your team needs most.

Skinner is definitely a better fit right now for Buffalo and I think that’s what JBot had in mind with the decisions he made around each.

  I like where your heads at… I was pretty much thinking the same exact points for each player. It’s reasonable it’s logical it’s even tempered.   Even though at the end of the day 7.3 seems about average for what skinner may get, I think considering that the salary cap will continue to increase, I would be very shocked if Skinner accepted under 7.5, and more likely to settle on 8.0 or so.

 And I’ll believe it when I see it, that Skinner  is going to test free agency. I’m not convinced he will and I’m not convinced he won’t. Right now I think it’s a tossup no matter how much people want to read into his comments, they are public media comments. For me they carry little weight.

Edited by Zamboni
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Serious question:  does Skinner getting bounced from Jack's line for the last dozen or so games of the season affect his desire to return?

If it does, then that’s silly.  He was on a long goalless drought so changing it up couldn’t hurt.  If he wants to sign long term, it’s not super logical to think that he would play ever single game on Eichel’s wing for the next 6+ years.  

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Serious question:  does Skinner getting bounced from Jack's line for the last dozen or so games of the season affect his desire to return?

This is similar to the feel-good moment of his 40th, where his team and his coach were clearly trying to make it happen for him.

We don't know what's important to Jeff Skinner.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/4/2019 at 9:53 AM, LGR4GM said:

Drew Stafford was always Drew Stafford. He was the exact same. 

The really issue is will Skinner go full Moulson and decline into irrelevance. 

No, he had that contract year.

Anyway, Skinner just became more expensive because of an arbitrary number.

Edited by Eleven
Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, hsif said:

Reading Skinner's body language after 39 and 40, I don't think he returns................JMHO.

Hope I'm wrong.

What body language was that?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...