Well we now know who GMTM was trying to trade all 3 Second Picks in 2014 for.

[Brawndo]

On tomorrow’s 32 Thoughts Podcast Chuck Fletcher shared a story from the draft floor about GMTM calling him to offer all three of the Sabres Second Round Picks in the 2014, which were picks 31, 44 and 49 for pick 18.

The player GMTM wanted, Alex Tuch 

[DarthEbriate]

4 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

On tomorrow’s 32 Thoughts Podcast Chuck Fletcher shared a story from the draft floor about GMTM calling him to offer all three of the Sabres Second Round Picks in the 2014, which were picks 31, 44 and 49 for pick 18.

The player GMTM wanted, Alex Tuch 

Considering GMTM selected Lemieux, Cornel, and Karabacek...  that could have been nice.

Edited June 20, 2023 by DarthEbriate

[Mustache of God]

Those 3 picks turned into Brenden Lemieux, Eric Cornel, and Vaclav Karabacek. 

I think Lemiuex is the only one whose played in the NHL - and he never wanted to be in Buffalo. 

[Weave]

If he knew all it would have taken was Eichel, he would have done it. 😂

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

On tomorrow’s 32 Thoughts Podcast Chuck Fletcher shared a story from the draft floor about GMTM calling him to offer all three of the Sabres Second Round Picks in the 2014, which were picks 31, 44 and 49 for pick 18.

The player GMTM wanted, Alex Tuch 

Interesting.  Was sure it was Larkin he was trying to nab.

Wonder what Adams would've gotten for Eichel with Tuch already in the fold.  😉

[Scottysabres]

Just now, Taro T said:

Interesting.  Was sure it was Larkin he was trying to nab.

Wonder what Adams would've gotten for Eichel with Tuch already in the fold.  😉

Einhorn?

 

[tom webster]

53 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Interesting.  Was sure it was Larkin he was trying to nab.

Wonder what Adams would've gotten for Eichel with Tuch already in the fold.  😉

I was told it was Larkin, for what it’s worth but maybe after Larkin was selected 14th, he turned his attention to Tuch

GMTM was a firm believer in quality over quantity and skill over safe so it sort of fits

Edited June 20, 2023 by tom webster

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I was told it was Larkin, for what it’s worth but maybe after Larkin was selected 14th, he turned his attention to Tuch

GMTM was a firm believer in quality over quantity and skill over safe so it sort of fits

Wouldn’t surprise me if he had a number of prospects he’d package all three for and kept offering them as long as one of them was still available.

[Eleven]

Very interesting.  I didn't know (or don't remember, more likely) that he was trying to package those picks for anything or anyone...but it was a good aim that he had, it seems.  2d round picks are not worth much IMO, so good try on his part.

[shrader]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

I was told it was Larkin, for what it’s worth but maybe after Larkin was selected 14th, he turned his attention to Tuch

GMTM was a firm believer in quality over quantity and skill over safe so it sort of fits

Not on the blue line

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

On tomorrow’s 32 Thoughts Podcast Chuck Fletcher shared a story from the draft floor about GMTM calling him to offer all three of the Sabres Second Round Picks in the 2014, which were picks 31, 44 and 49 for pick 18.

The player GMTM wanted, Alex Tuch 

Have always said: Murray had a keen eye for talent. Team building, not so much 

[Marvin]

2 hours ago, tom webster said:

I was told it was Larkin, for what it’s worth but maybe after Larkin was selected 14th, he turned his attention to Tuch

GMTM was a firm believer in quality over quantity and skill over safe so it sort of fits

Just wondering if the thought had occurred to him that since depth matters, quantity matters as well.  No wonder he seems to not have got another management job in the NHL.

[Porous Five Hole]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Have always said: Murray had a keen eye for talent. Team building, not so much 

Murray was the Sabres GM from Jan 2014 to April 2017. So he headed three NHL drafts. For purposes of this exercise, I am only looking at his drafted players and not his trades. 

2014 Entry2 Sam Reinhart

2014 Entry31 Brendan Lemieux

2014 Entry44 Eric Cornel

2014 Entry49 Vaclav Karabacek

2014 Entry61 Jonas Johansson

2014 Entry74 Brycen Martin

2014 Entry121 Max Willman

2014 Entry151 Christopher Brown

2014 Entry181 Victor Olofsson

   

VO was a home run.  Jonas Johansson was a fringe NHLer. Rhino was a consensus #2 pick (not blaming GMTM for not drafting Draisitle, but not giving credit for Rhino). Lemieux has never scored double digit goals in the NHL, but has been an NHLer. Draft grade: B?

2015 Entry2 Jack Eichel

2015 Entry51 Brendan Guhle

2015 Entry92 Will Borgen

2015 Entry122 Devante Stephens

2015 Entry152 Giorgio Estephan

2015 Entry182 Ivan Chukarov

Jack pick gets no credit for obvious decision. Guhle washed out. Borgen in a 5-6 D. The rest was a dud. Grade: C-ish?

 

2016 Entry8 Alexander Nylander

2016 Entry33 Rasmus Asplund

2016 Entry69 Cliff Pu

2016 Entry86 Casey Fitzgerald

2016 Entry99 Brett Murray

2016 Entry129 Philip Nyberg

2016 Entry130 Vojtech Budik

2016 Entry159 Brandon Hagel

2016 Entry189 Austin Osmanski

2016 Entry190 Vasili Glotov

Nylander was a yikes. Raspy was an NHLer for a terrible team   Fitzy is a fringe NHLer. Hagel was a swing and a miss by Botts. Grade: C-ish?

His eye for talent of players who weren’t already pros was kinda bad.

 

[PerreaultForever]

Oh man that's a sad list and best forgotten. 

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Murray was the Sabres GM from Jan 2014 to April 2017. So he headed three NHL drafts. For purposes of this exercise, I am only looking at his drafted players and not his trades. 

2014 Entry2 Sam Reinhart

2014 Entry31 Brendan Lemieux

2014 Entry44 Eric Cornel

2014 Entry49 Vaclav Karabacek

2014 Entry61 Jonas Johansson

2014 Entry74 Brycen Martin

2014 Entry121 Max Willman

2014 Entry151 Christopher Brown

2014 Entry181 Victor Olofsson

   

VO was a home run.  Jonas Johansson was a fringe NHLer. Rhino was a consensus #2 pick (not blaming GMTM for not drafting Draisitle, but not giving credit for Rhino). Lemieux has never scored double digit goals in the NHL, but has been an NHLer. Draft grade: B?

2015 Entry2 Jack Eichel

2015 Entry51 Brendan Guhle

2015 Entry92 Will Borgen

2015 Entry122 Devante Stephens

2015 Entry152 Giorgio Estephan

2015 Entry182 Ivan Chukarov

Jack pick gets no credit for obvious decision. Guhle washed out. Borgen in a 5-6 D. The rest was a dud. Grade: C-ish?

 

2016 Entry8 Alexander Nylander

2016 Entry33 Rasmus Asplund

2016 Entry69 Cliff Pu

2016 Entry86 Casey Fitzgerald

2016 Entry99 Brett Murray

2016 Entry129 Philip Nyberg

2016 Entry130 Vojtech Budik

2016 Entry159 Brandon Hagel

2016 Entry189 Austin Osmanski

2016 Entry190 Vasili Glotov

Nylander was a yikes. Raspy was an NHLer for a terrible team   Fitzy is a fringe NHLer. Hagel was a swing and a miss by Botts. Grade: C-ish?

His eye for talent of players who weren’t already pros was kinda bad.

 

Don’t agree at all with your conclusion, actually.

Don’t they say 2 NHL players per draft is pretty decent? For a guy who lasted 3 years total, he seemed to draft at at least a league average rate, and delving in a bit more probably slightly above that. 

Maybe “keen eye” was a stretch, but I was more referring to those impressive later round picks anyways. I count 8 NHLers over 3 drafts, those are B/C scores at least, and far off a “pretty bad” designation. 

Admittedly, the Nylander pick looks rough 

- - -

Edit: yup, about 2 per team on average

“If you want to take something simple out of this to remember for the future, it’s that an average draft class produces about 60 NHL players(between 51 and 69), and about 40 of them(between 36 and 49) will go on to play a significant career in the NHL (at least 300 games played).“

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/amp/

At the end of the day, the biggest problem wasn’t poor or even mediocre drafting, it’s that a scorched earth tank requires you to draft at an ungodly rate. You aren’t supposed to look at NHL draft years and routinely see your team snag 3/4 guys, the lists look more less like the ones you posted. Botterill for reference drafted 6 NHLers so far in 3 years.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Thorny

[tom webster]

7 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Murray was the Sabres GM from Jan 2014 to April 2017. So he headed three NHL drafts. For purposes of this exercise, I am only looking at his drafted players and not his trades. 

2014 Entry2 Sam Reinhart

2014 Entry31 Brendan Lemieux

2014 Entry44 Eric Cornel

2014 Entry49 Vaclav Karabacek

2014 Entry61 Jonas Johansson

2014 Entry74 Brycen Martin

2014 Entry121 Max Willman

2014 Entry151 Christopher Brown

2014 Entry181 Victor Olofsson

   

VO was a home run.  Jonas Johansson was a fringe NHLer. Rhino was a consensus #2 pick (not blaming GMTM for not drafting Draisitle, but not giving credit for Rhino). Lemieux has never scored double digit goals in the NHL, but has been an NHLer. Draft grade: B?

2015 Entry2 Jack Eichel

2015 Entry51 Brendan Guhle

2015 Entry92 Will Borgen

2015 Entry122 Devante Stephens

2015 Entry152 Giorgio Estephan

2015 Entry182 Ivan Chukarov

Jack pick gets no credit for obvious decision. Guhle washed out. Borgen in a 5-6 D. The rest was a dud. Grade: C-ish?

 

2016 Entry8 Alexander Nylander

2016 Entry33 Rasmus Asplund

2016 Entry69 Cliff Pu

2016 Entry86 Casey Fitzgerald

2016 Entry99 Brett Murray

2016 Entry129 Philip Nyberg

2016 Entry130 Vojtech Budik

2016 Entry159 Brandon Hagel

2016 Entry189 Austin Osmanski

2016 Entry190 Vasili Glotov

Nylander was a yikes. Raspy was an NHLer for a terrible team   Fitzy is a fringe NHLer. Hagel was a swing and a miss by Botts. Grade: C-ish?

His eye for talent of players who weren’t already pros was kinda bad.

 

Nine players playing in the NHL, maybe a tenth could be next year. How did rest of league do?

[inkman]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

Don’t agree at all with your conclusion, actually.

Don’t they say 2 NHL players per draft is pretty decent? For a guy who lasted 3 years total, he seemed to draft at at least a league average rate, and delving in a bit more probably slightly above that. 

Maybe “keen eye” was a stretch, but I was more referring to those impressive later round picks anyways. I count 8 NHLers over 3 drafts, those are B/C scores at least, and far off a “pretty bad” designation. 

Admittedly, the Nylander pick looks rough 

- - -

Edit: yup, about 2 per team on average

“If you want to take something simple out of this to remember for the future, it’s that an average draft class produces about 60 NHL players(between 51 and 69), and about 40 of them(between 36 and 49) will go on to play a significant career in the NHL (at least 300 games played).“

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/amp/

At the end of the day, the biggest problem wasn’t poor or even mediocre drafting, it’s that a scorched earth tank requires you to draft at an ungodly rate. You aren’t supposed to look at NHL draft years and routinely see your team snag 3/4 guys, the lists look more less like the ones you posted. Botterill for reference drafted 6 NHLers so far in 3 years.

Honestly, I never hated GMTM.  He had his deficiencies but he like the kind of players I liked.  If Borgen and Hagel were still in the org, this list looks quite a bit better.  
 

His hit rate for NHL players per draft is probably better than most. Draft picks after the second round have less than a 20% hit rate so he was doing ok.  The 2014 2nd round is a problem.  It should have restocked this teams depth for years. Instead, it decimated it. 

[SDS]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

it’s that a scorched earth tank requires you to draft at an ungodly rate.

Honestly, after all these years this is probably the best single counter argument statement against the tank I have read. 👍

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

Don’t agree at all with your conclusion, actually.

Don’t they say 2 NHL players per draft is pretty decent? For a guy who lasted 3 years total, he seemed to draft at at least a league average rate, and delving in a bit more probably slightly above that. 

Maybe “keen eye” was a stretch, but I was more referring to those impressive later round picks anyways. I count 8 NHLers over 3 drafts, those are B/C scores at least, and far off a “pretty bad” designation. 

Admittedly, the Nylander pick looks rough 

- - -

Edit: yup, about 2 per team on average

“If you want to take something simple out of this to remember for the future, it’s that an average draft class produces about 60 NHL players(between 51 and 69), and about 40 of them(between 36 and 49) will go on to play a significant career in the NHL (at least 300 games played).“

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/amp/

At the end of the day, the biggest problem wasn’t poor or even mediocre drafting, it’s that a scorched earth tank requires you to draft at an ungodly rate. You aren’t supposed to look at NHL draft years and routinely see your team snag 3/4 guys, the lists look more less like the ones you posted. Botterill for reference drafted 6 NHLers so far in 3 years.

You don't need to draft 2 nhl players per draft, you need to draft 2 players who are above replacement level and really you need 2.5

Games played has always been such an odd threshold to me for draft success when role and production are also needed. For example Ivan Barbashev was drafted just picks after Lemuex yet we grade out both as "hits"

Not a criticism of this conversation btw. I don't have a better system.

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You don't need to draft 2 nhl players per draft, you need to draft 2 players who are above replacement level and really you need 2.5

Games played has always been such an odd threshold to me for draft success when role and production are also needed. For example Ivan Barbashev was drafted just picks after Lemuex yet we grade out both as "hits"

Not a criticism of this conversation btw. I don't have a better system.

Well what do you think? I’d obviously defer to you on this. To me, Murray’s drafts at least look somewhere around average, certainly much closer to normal than that abomination some make it out to be, imo. Hagel and Olofsson are true late round hits. Asplund is a pretty good pick. Can’t fault him for Eichel and Reinhart even if they are consensus or else he has no chance to make up that value, first round is where everyone gets most of their guys. Don’t even have to “credit” Murray for those but they are still full value when looking purely at the strength of our class. It’s not common to see teams hit on 3/4 guys with consistency so to me it looks kinda normal. The eye for talent kinda shows up with those later picks, but on the other hand some of the second rounders were pretty poor. But, there’s the Tuch thing. 

Anyways that’s just my spin how would you grade it?

[Buffalonill]

12 hours ago, Thorny said:

Have always said: Murray had a keen eye for talent. Team building, not so much 

 Hudson Fasching,Robin Lehner,Vesey, Anders Nilsson.

And drafted bust after bust his 3 years.

 

[Thorny]

39 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 Hudson Fasching,Robin Lehner,Vesey, Anders Nilsson.

And drafted bust after bust his 3 years.

 

Trades were bad didn’t say otherwise. 

[DarthEbriate]

41 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Trades were bad didn’t say otherwise. 

GMTM dealing his second round picks.

If this had gone through it would have been five 2nds (+ McNabb and Parker's roster slot) for Tuch, Deslauriers, and Fasching. 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Well what do you think? I’d obviously defer to you on this. To me, Murray’s drafts at least look somewhere around average, certainly much closer to normal than that abomination some make it out to be, imo. Hagel and Olofsson are true late round hits. Asplund is a pretty good pick. Can’t fault him for Eichel and Reinhart even if they are consensus or else he has no chance to make up that value, first round is where everyone gets most of their guys. Don’t even have to “credit” Murray for those but they are still full value when looking purely at the strength of our class. It’s not common to see teams hit on 3/4 guys with consistency so to me it looks kinda normal. The eye for talent kinda shows up with those later picks, but on the other hand some of the second rounders were pretty poor. But, there’s the Tuch thing. 

Anyways that’s just my spin how would you grade it?

If B is an average draft, A is exceptional, C is bad, and D is atrocious, I would give Murray's record a B- or a C+. Sure he found some players but how many of them are impact guys? How many of those guys would you want on the Sabres right now? Where would you slot them? 

I think about Adams 2020 draft. He pulled Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka out of 5 total picks. Technically that matches what Murray did in 2014 with Lemiuex and Reinhart but how do we compare Reinhart and Lemiuex plus the other 4 picks Murray had to Adams? I would say Adams drafted better even though Murray comes away with 3 NHL players in Lemiuex, Reinhart, and Olofsson. 

What about the 2016 draft? Nylander is a bust. Asplund was okayish. Hagel is pretty good. So they found 1 player that actually mattered but we can give them credit for 2.5. It really all comes down to how that player impacts the team and less for me about if they hit 100 games or some game related benchmark. 

Botterillllllls

2017 is Botterill, technically his hits are Mitts, Bryson, and UPL. So you have a top 6 forward, a 7th defender who a lot of us want to move on from, and a guy who right now looks like a career backup. That's a B level draft right there, 1 impact player, 1 depth guy, and a backup goalie. 

2018, Dahlin and Muel. That's it from that draft but that is a better haul than 2017 or 2016 for sure. It is probably better than 2014 and 2015 as well because of the impact you have with drafting what is essentially the top pairing defense. I would go A-

2019, now this draft is really interesting. It is Botts last one and when his scouting staff is at the height of its power. You get Cozens (very good #2 center, maybe even a #1), Ryan Johnson (book is still out but hopefully a 4/5 defender), Portillo (looks to at least have a good chance at NHL games probably as a backup), Huglen (lost a year to injury and personally think he won't rise about the AHL at best but still hard to say), Cederqvist (he is an AHL guy but might be able to play in a bottom 6 role after another AHL season), and Rousek (good AHL guy that will challenge for a roster spot this season in Buffalo, looked good in his only call up). That is an A+ draft because outside of Huglen, every player could contribute to the NHL. 

Adams

2020, Quinn and JJP is an A because you got 2 solid 2nd liners. Solid B+ because both players are so high in the lineup, might even go A- because they managed this with only 5 picks. 

2021, Power is a duh pick, then you have Rosen, Poltapov, and Kisakov who are all possible NHL guys still. Nadeau, Novikov, and Kozak are at least AHL guys. Hard to tell but early returns are that there is probably 1 if not 2 other NHL guys in there not named Power. B- with the potential to be a B or B+

2022, way way too early but Kulich, Savoie, and Östlund have all lived up to first round picks. Neuchev, Lidstrom and Komarov are all showing promise. B with potential to be an A (if Leinonen was Warren I would feel better). 

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If B is an average draft, A is exceptional, C is bad, and D is atrocious, I would give Murray's record a B- or a C+. Sure he found some players but how many of them are impact guys? How many of those guys would you want on the Sabres right now? Where would you slot them? 

I think about Adams 2020 draft. He pulled Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka out of 5 total picks. Technically that matches what Murray did in 2014 with Lemiuex and Reinhart but how do we compare Reinhart and Lemiuex plus the other 4 picks Murray had to Adams? I would say Adams drafted better even though Murray comes away with 3 NHL players in Lemiuex, Reinhart, and Olofsson. 

What about the 2016 draft? Nylander is a bust. Asplund was okayish. Hagel is pretty good. So they found 1 player that actually mattered but we can give them credit for 2.5. It really all comes down to how that player impacts the team and less for me about if they hit 100 games or some game related benchmark. 

Botterillllllls

2017 is Botterill, technically his hits are Mitts, Bryson, and UPL. So you have a top 6 forward, a 7th defender who a lot of us want to move on from, and a guy who right now looks like a career backup. That's a B level draft right there, 1 impact player, 1 depth guy, and a backup goalie. 

2018, Dahlin and Muel. That's it from that draft but that is a better haul than 2017 or 2016 for sure. It is probably better than 2014 and 2015 as well because of the impact you have with drafting what is essentially the top pairing defense. I would go A-

2019, now this draft is really interesting. It is Botts last one and when his scouting staff is at the height of its power. You get Cozens (very good #2 center, maybe even a #1), Ryan Johnson (book is still out but hopefully a 4/5 defender), Portillo (looks to at least have a good chance at NHL games probably as a backup), Huglen (lost a year to injury and personally think he won't rise about the AHL at best but still hard to say), Cederqvist (he is an AHL guy but might be able to play in a bottom 6 role after another AHL season), and Rousek (good AHL guy that will challenge for a roster spot this season in Buffalo, looked good in his only call up). That is an A+ draft because outside of Huglen, every player could contribute to the NHL. 

Adams

2020, Quinn and JJP is an A because you got 2 solid 2nd liners. Solid B+ because both players are so high in the lineup, might even go A- because they managed this with only 5 picks. 

2021, Power is a duh pick, then you have Rosen, Poltapov, and Kisakov who are all possible NHL guys still. Nadeau, Novikov, and Kozak are at least AHL guys. Hard to tell but early returns are that there is probably 1 if not 2 other NHL guys in there not named Power. B- with the potential to be a B or B+

2022, way way too early but Kulich, Savoie, and Östlund have all lived up to first round picks. Neuchev, Lidstrom and Komarov are all showing promise. B with potential to be an A (if Leinonen was Warren I would feel better). 

Good write up.

I more less agree your rankings (C should be “average” but w/e) but with Murray, like I think we can knock his ranking down a peg like you did, for factors like some of his picks being consensus picks, but in ranking the class based on strength alone not as an analysis of the skill of the GM necessarily, Id argue it’s a least a B.

Eichel, Reinhart, Borgen, Olofsson, Hagel, Asplund is IMO a pretty decent haul over 3 years. What happened after/ how they were managed isn’t part of it for me, we know that part went bad for the most part