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NHL Draft Lottery: Friday June 26th, 8pm EDT

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On 6/24/2020 at 1:36 PM, LGR4GM said:

somewhere between 9 and 11 depending on how you view the 2 defenders. 

I've heard from 3 or 4 draft analysts on the radio that if you stay in the top ten range (as you noted) you will come away with a very good prospect. And they all seem to agree that if you are drafting within the top three location you will come out with an exceptional prospect. 

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Is it wrong to want to win this lottery?  We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right?

Or does it just make us more pathetic?

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Just now, nfreeman said:

Is it wrong to want to win this lottery?  We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right?

Or does it just make us more pathetic?

Nah, winning the lottery when not in last place is okay.  I mean, not making the playoffs is bad... certainly.. but being last is the pathetic and being last and not winning the lottery is worse... 

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1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

Is it wrong to want to win this lottery?  We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right?

Or does it just make us more pathetic?

Gotta win something, right?

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1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

Is it wrong to want to win this lottery?  We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right?

Or does it just make us more pathetic?

lol ***** that of course we should want to win it

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Dropping one spot or more (39.1 cent chance) would hurt. I see a tier ending at 7 and my 7 (Raymond) is giving me  Nylander vibes.

Moving into the top 3 (7.2) would be exciting. Winning Lafreniere (6.5) would be a game changer.

Buffalo has never moved up in the lottery.

In 2019 dropped 2 spots

2018 stayed the same

2017 dropped 2 spots

2016 stayed the same

2015 dropped one spot

2014 dropped one spot

 

Who are your top 7/8? 

Also I do get some of that Nylander vibe from Raymond (who I have watched way more of in the last month and read a ton more about). 

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1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I've heard from 3 or 4 draft analysts on the radio that if you stay in the top ten range (as you noted) you will come away with a very good prospect. And they all seem to agree that if you are drafting within the top three location you will come out with an exceptional prospect. 

Yes. Keep in mind for the last 2 years, there has been an eyebrow raising top 10 pick so we should watch for that. 

Barrett Hayton, Moritz Seider, are the 2 I am thinking of. Those off the board (so to speak picks) really change things for anyone coming after. Seider helps us get Cozens for example. 

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Here are the rules and the odds -- it's more complicated than usual because of the participation of the 8 teams who finished in slots 17-24:

https://www.clickondetroit.com/sports/2020/06/23/nhl-draft-lottery-2020-is-friday-june-26-red-wings-have-best-odds/

The Sabres have a 6.5% chance (a bit less than 1-in-15 -- so what XGMTM would call a great chance) to win #1.  The odds that they could move up to #2 or #3 will depend on who wins #1.

 

Quote

 

How the draft lottery will go

It will consist of three drawings and include the seven teams whose season ended and eight placeholder positions.

The lottery odds for the seven non-qualifying teams were determined by their points percentage during the 2019-20 regular season. The eight potential losing teams from the qualifiers will be represented in the First Phase of the draft lottery as unassigned picks.

The first drawing of the First Phase will set the team selecting No. 1 in the draft, the second drawing will set the team selecting No. 2, and the third drawing will set the team selecting No. 3. If a team not in the bottom seven wins any of the first three drawings, a Second Phase will be conducted among the eight teams eliminated in the qualifiers. That would take place between the end of the qualifiers and the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The NHL says if each of the three First Phase drawings is won by a bottom-seven team, the Second Phase will not be necessary. The remaining four teams from the bottom seven will be assigned picks No. 4-7 in inverse order of their regular-season points percentage, and picks No. 8-15 will be assigned to the teams that are eliminated from the qualifier in inverse order of their points percentage.

Here are the first lottery drawing odds:

  • Detroit Red Wings (.275) -- 18.5 percent chance for No. 1 pick
  • Ottawa Senators (.437) -- 13.5 percent
  • Ottawa Senators (from San Jose Sharks, .450) -- 11.5 percent
  • Los Angeles Kings (.457) -- 9.5 percent
  • Anaheim Ducks (.472) -- 8.5 percent
  • New Jersey Devils (.493) -- 7.5 percent
  • Buffalo Sabres (.493) -- 6.5 percent
  • Qualifier Team A -- 6.0 percent
  • Qualifier Team B -- 5.0 percent
  • Qualifier Team C -- 3.5 percent
  • Qualifier Team D -- 3.0 percent
  • Qualifier Team E -- 2.5 percent
  • Qualifier Team F -- 2.0 percent
  • Qualifier Team G -- 1.5 percent
  • Qualifier Team H -- 1.0 percent

 

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no doubt they'll drop us down a few notches again...hopefully we will draft a little better this year and have something to show for yet another losing season...

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59 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Who are your top 7/8? 

Also I do get some of that Nylander vibe from Raymond (who I have watched way more of in the last month and read a ton more about). 

My highly unqualified hot takes:

Lafreniere is a stud, a complete player who will have a Jarome Iginla level career. Easy first choice.

I am more leery than some on Byfield. He has all the tools to be Eric Staal, but I’m not sure he has the focus. I wouldn’t be disappointed if we moved up into the top three and picked him, but I’d also be fine if we took someone else there.

Have paid the least attention to Stutzle for some reason, but I like him. Lack of attention means I’m not sure where I’d rank him overall, but I’m very comfortable with his game and his fit, and am OK with the Sabres taking him anywhere from 2-8

From the guys that might be there for us at 7, I really like Perfetti and Rossi. Their games are nothing alike, but they are both smart, competitive winners, my kind of hockey players. They will play in the top six and they both have upside. I’d give Perfetti the edge.

As I’ve said earlier, Drysdale is too good not to take at 7 if the above guys are gone.

And I’m fine with Raymond or Holtz if the above guys are gone. I don’t think Holtz will be a top player, but he will score 25-30 goals and have a solid career. Raymond is more boom or bust. He can be a first liner, but I see red flags.

Haven’t paid enough attention to the guys ranked below that to form a strong opinion. Your guy Jarvis intrigues me.

Edited by dudacek

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35 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Is it wrong to want to win this lottery?  We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right?

Or does it just make us more pathetic?

In 1835, when the United States was only 59 years old and states stretched only to somewhere in Missouri, a mentally ill man by the name of Richard Lawrence attempted to take the life of President Andrew Jackson.  Lawrence, wielding two pistols, approached Jackson from behind and attempted to shoot Jackson in the back at point blank range.  The first pistol misfired.  The second pistol misfired.  Jackson turned around and bludgeoned that man to within an inch of his life using his famous cane.

When word got out to the young nation of Jackson's failed assassination, it was considered Divine Providence.  It was believed that God was a guiding hand in the US and this was more evidence He wanted the nation to succeed.

When laboratory tests were performed on the pistols, it was estimated that the chance of both pistols misfiring was 1 in 125,000.

 

It doesn't matter what the odds are.  We have Divine Providence.  The Buffalo Sabres are on a mission from God.

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1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Is it wrong to want to win this lottery?  We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right?

Or does it just make us more pathetic?

It's ok, we became Edmonton Part Deux a long time ago...lol.

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Over optimism Post alert.

I think we get #1 to let RJ herald us into the playoffs with the remix.... La La La La Laaah La Lafreniere 

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40 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

In 1835, when the United States was only 59 years old and states stretched only to somewhere in Missouri, a mentally ill man by the name of Richard Lawrence attempted to take the life of President Andrew Jackson.  Lawrence, wielding two pistols, approached Jackson from behind and attempted to shoot Jackson in the back at point blank range.  The first pistol misfired.  The second pistol misfired.  Jackson turned around and bludgeoned that man to within an inch of his life using his famous cane.

When word got out to the young nation of Jackson's failed assassination, it was considered Divine Providence.  It was believed that God was a guiding hand in the US and this was more evidence He wanted the nation to succeed.

When laboratory tests were performed on the pistols, it was estimated that the chance of both pistols misfiring was 1 in 125,000.

 

It doesn't matter what the odds are.  We have Divine Providence.  The Buffalo Sabres are on a mission from God.

mission GIF

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Did the Tankathon 3 times this morning We ended up in the Top 3 all three times. Call it what it is: I'm feeling optimistic about the lottery finally being very kind to the Sabres.

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1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

It's ok, we became Edmonton Part Deux a long time ago...lol.

Minus, ya know, one of the greatest histories in the NHL to fall back on. 

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I hope we win!

So, in summation for consensus thus far --- If we get to the top 3, we get LaFreniere, Byfield, or Stutzle. If we stick at 7 or 8, we want Perfetti, Rossi, or Drysdale. And if we fall to 10, we take a flier on Jarvis (if available)?

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1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

It's ok, we became Edmonton Part Deux a long time ago...lol.

I wish we were as good as Edmonton

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1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

It's ok, we became Edmonton Part Deux a long time ago...lol.

New Jersey has had 2 first overall picks in the past three years. If they win again they will be within reach of the Oilers.

Sabres in the top three would be great.

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