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Around the NHL 2018-2019

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1 hour ago, jame said:

1. That chart is over 10 years old

2. 200gp is not a good barometer for a successful draft pick.... unless you think we got a good deal on Zemgus Girgensons because of games played.

3. Here's a link that breaks down the same draft years you displayed, but by draft slot and whether the player is Top6/4/1G. You can see that most of the mid-late 1st round draft slots net a 20-30% return rate... 

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

Note: Every single pick after 15, has a >50% chance of being 4th line or worse.... and no pick has a >36% chance of being a difference maker.

I appreciate the update. I didn't have the time needed, and I was just grabbing images off a Google search. I think these are the stats I had wanted to find - but there was a lot of noise in my Google web search. 

Here are some screen caps of what @jame linked:

draft1.thumb.PNG.e56022449fb7c962184b6fa6f5c7c669.PNGdraft2.thumb.PNG.d532c8961bef35c0725fe5c7e72ae6ae.PNG

As others have noted, you sort of have to smooth out certain ranges in the 1st round. There are some weird outliers.

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1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

I appreciate the update. I didn't have the time needed, and I was just grabbing images off a Google search. I think these are the stats I had wanted to find - but there was a lot of noise in my Google web search. 

Here are some screen caps of what @jame linked:

draft1.thumb.PNG.e56022449fb7c962184b6fa6f5c7c669.PNGdraft2.thumb.PNG.d532c8961bef35c0725fe5c7e72ae6ae.PNG

As others have noted, you sort of have to smooth out certain ranges in the 1st round. There are some weird outliers.

Interesting that the 8th pick seems to be one of the worst of the higher slots......and we have 3 of them in our organization (Risto, Mitts, and Nylander).

Also, the 14th seems like a good slot (Zemgus).

There are some slots in the 20's that are much better than others (stay away from 25 and 29?)

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2 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Interesting that the 8th pick seems to be one of the worst of the higher slots......and we have 3 of them in our organization (Risto, Mitts, and Nylander).

Also, the 14th seems like a good slot (Zemgus).

There are some slots in the 20's that are much better than others (stay away from 25 and 29?)

It's nothing short of goofy.

I think.

Damn. That is strange about pick 8.

But seriously, that is just random.

Right?!

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24 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

It's nothing short of goofy.

I think.

Damn. That is strange about pick 8.

But seriously, that is just random.

Right?!

As random as the poor results for #15 pick (41.7% oof). When you only have 13 data points in each pick set, there's going to be some volatility.

Calculating a log "best fit" line like in Smell's original visual would smooth those variances out and help identify where the tangible drop off is.

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Cliff Pu was assigned to the ECHL Today. 

Wonder if it’s to get him more playing time as Charlotte’s Roster is loaded with talent 

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5 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Cliff Pu was assigned to the ECHL Today. 

Wonder if it’s to get him more playing time as Charlotte’s Roster is loaded with talent 

Not speaking to this post just wanted to use it as a reference point:

I'm starting to cringe a little bit at the amount Sabres Twitter bring up this kid's name in jest in reference to Skinner. I could see that being an added difficulty for a young guy trying to find his way. 

I wish all the Blue Checkmarks would stop saying "How's Cliff Pu doing?" every time Skinner does something good. Maybe Cliff is completely oblivious to it, but my bet is most of these kids have a solid social media presence. 

Edited by Thorny
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On 2/8/2019 at 9:14 AM, LGR4GM said:

Again, that fully depends on Mittelstadt. The ROR trade was always going to be a major hit. 

Which is why it was dumb to make it. 

On 2/8/2019 at 10:40 AM, That Aud Smell said:

I appreciate the update. I didn't have the time needed, and I was just grabbing images off a Google search. I think these are the stats I had wanted to find - but there was a lot of noise in my Google web search. 

Here are some screen caps of what @jame linked:

 

As others have noted, you sort of have to smooth out certain ranges in the 1st round. There are some weird outliers.

We're due for a freaking outlier, dammit. 

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Justin Bailey recalled by Filthadelphia 

 

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Great article from the Athletic about Brian Boyle being traded to the Predators and what it’s like for the player and his family to be traded. https://theathletic.com/809436/2019/02/10/inside-brian-boyles-life-immediately-after-trade-to-predators-the-ubers-here-ive-got-to-go/

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3 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

The most anticipated move has come to pass.  I'm not sure that they can pin all the problems on the coach, but they are almost always the first to go.

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8 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

Amazed it took this long. He's pretty well known for being terrible at his job

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On 2/10/2019 at 12:03 AM, TrueBlueGED said:

We're due for a freaking outlier, dammit. 

The team had a bunch of those last time they were good -- Pominville, Roy, Campbell (way out there), Tallinder, Afinogenov.

Edited by That Aud Smell

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1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

The team had a bunch of those last time they were good -- Pominville, Roy, Campbell (way out there), Tallinder, Afiniogenov

Yup, and I think it's the biggest reason we're still bad. Every upper echelon team has several high end players from unexpected places. We barely even have depth pieces from our drafts. 

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15 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Yup, and I think it's the biggest reason we're still bad. Every upper echelon team has several high end players from unexpected places. We barely even have depth pieces from our drafts. 

I wonder how much of that is the high end players making those guys better.  We lacked the high end guy for so long, it left just about everyone being asked to do far more than they were capable.  We have that high end now, so this is the time for some of those mid-level guys to step up.

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7 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Yup, and I think it's the biggest reason we're still bad. Every upper echelon team has several high end players from unexpected places. We barely even have depth pieces from our drafts. 

Yup. Thankfully we seem to have a few candidates now and coming up. Rodrigues, Oloffsson, Pilut..

Hopefully things start turning around in that regard.

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The Blues are rolling.

The talk of trouble following ROR was ... premature, I reckon.

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57 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

The Blues are rolling.

The talk of trouble following ROR was ... premature, I reckon.

Weird. Haven't heard much recently from the "ROR is poison" brigade. Almost like it was a bad take in the first place. 

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53 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Weird. Haven't heard much recently from the "ROR is poison" brigade. Almost like it was a bad take in the first place. 

Na he's still an as$hat

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6 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Weird. Haven't heard much recently from the "ROR is poison" brigade. Almost like it was a bad take in the first place. 

Well, poison or not, there must have been a real and significant inter-personal conflict involving ROR for JBOT to trade him as he did. Because he’s proving again to be a damn effective hockey player.

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8 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Weird. Haven't heard much recently from the "ROR is poison" brigade. Almost like it was a bad take in the first place. 

The difference in the Blues has nothing to do with ROR.  He was their leading scorer on December 1 when they were 30th in the league.  He's their leading scorer now. He could be a problem still. The team is talented enough to win despite him, unlike the Sabres.

The difference in the St. Louis Blues is Jordan Binnington.  Who, prior to December 2 had not played a single game in goal.

During the first 24 games (through Dec. 1) the St. Louis Blues goaltenders were:

Allen:        7-7-3 - SV%: .896  3.24 GA
Johnson: 2-5-0 - SV%: .895  3.12 GA

December 2 through today:

Allen:              9-8-1 - SV%: .899   2.88 GA
Johnson:       0-0-0 - SV%: .800   3.92 GA (45 minutes TOI - he was pulled in his only game)
Binnington: 10-1-1 - SV%: .927  1.82 GA

Blues GF/GA -  through Dec. 1

GF: 3.04
GA: 3.29

Blues GF/GA - Dec. 2 through today

GF: 2.96
GA: 2.53

It seems that a really good backup goaltender and some better defense is helping the Blues win more.  Their scoring rate is actually down.  Also, they play in the Western Conference. 🙂  They are still 17th in the league in points and 2pts behind the Sabres.  

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17 minutes ago, LTS said:

The difference in the Blues has nothing to do with ROR.  He was their leading scorer on December 1 when they were 30th in the league.  He's their leading scorer now. He could be a problem still. The team is talented enough to win despite him, unlike the Sabres.

The difference in the St. Louis Blues is Jordan Binnington.  Who, prior to December 2 had not played a single game in goal.

During the first 24 games (through Dec. 1) the St. Louis Blues goaltenders were:

Allen:        7-7-3 - SV%: .896  3.24 GA
Johnson: 2-5-0 - SV%: .895  3.12 GA

December 2 through today:

Allen:              9-8-1 - SV%: .899   2.88 GA
Johnson:       0-0-0 - SV%: .800   3.92 GA (45 minutes TOI - he was pulled in his only game)
Binnington: 10-1-1 - SV%: .927  1.82 GA

Blues GF/GA -  through Dec. 1

GF: 3.04
GA: 3.29

Blues GF/GA - Dec. 2 through today

GF: 2.96
GA: 2.53

It seems that a really good backup goaltender and some better defense is helping the Blues win more.  Their scoring rate is actually down.  Also, they play in the Western Conference. 🙂  They are still 17th in the league in points and 2pts behind the Sabres.  

That's entirely my point. The problem was always the goaltending. 

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12 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

That's entirely my point. The problem was always the goaltending. 

Quite. From what I can tell, ROR is having a great year (on the ice).

 

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