Trade Speculation and Rumors 2018-19

[TrueBlueGED]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Here’s how I looked at the O’Reilly trade (and really Botterill’s 2018 moves in general)

There were issues on the ice that were obvious to everyone: speed up front, lack of scoring, the inability to push the play (offensively and defensively) from the backline, and goaltending.

There were also issues off the ice that we couldn’t see, but - from the voices coming from the dressing room - seemed real: lack of passion, uncoachability, division.

Long before the trades started happening, I took the position that I had no way of knowing the source of those off-ice issues, or the cure, but I expected Botterill to identify it and fix it. And I expected there would be moves coming that didn’t entirely make sense to me on the surface.

When he moved two of our best assets for lesser parts and let our starting goalie walk for nothing, it wasn’t a huge leap to conclude these were the moves he deemed necessary to fix the invisible problems.

I can’t say they were good moves because on the surface they were not. But I also can’t say they were the wrong moves either, because I am too far away see the same issues he may have seen, and I desperately wanted him to fix the issues I couldn’t see.

The team was broken. Trading the best player from opthe worst team seems like an odd way to fix it.

But there comes a time you just have to “trust the process” and see where it leads.

1) If those are indeed the issues he identified and his plan was to clearly address them, then his offseason thus far should be viewed with even more intense scrutiny. The only thing he did to increase speed was the Sheary trade, he hasn't added scoring, the only thing he did to push play from the backline was get lucky enough to have his 20% lottery ticket hit, and goaltending, though different, is not in any way solidified. 

2) No, there doesn't come such a time. As fans who value sanity we have to hope what he's doing is the right set of moves, but we don't have to trust it.

6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I saw an interesting view on hf, that Botterill may have gotten frustrated at not getting pieces he really wanted for Kane, and combined with how this core had done for him so far just tossed the idea of rebuilding what he was given on the fly, like anyone would suggest there was a chance to do when he came in, with pieces like Kane and ROR playing and playing well for us. And if he came to that conclusion, getting a 1st, 2nd, and a decent prospect for ROR fits in nicely - the return doesn't matter as much for now because he committed to that path which handily for him buys some more time and lets him truly build a team he envisions. 

 

This makes a lot more sense, to me. It also makes his moves this offseason a lot more coherent with respect to what he's trying to do with the team. 

[dudacek]

30 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

1) If those are indeed the issues he identified and his plan was to clearly address them, then his offseason thus far should be viewed with even more intense scrutiny. The only thing he did to increase speed was the Sheary trade, he hasn't added scoring, the only thing he did to push play from the backline was get lucky enough to have his 20% lottery ticket hit, and goaltending, though different, is not in any way solidified. 

I agree. It definitely remains to be seen if the moves worked. 

I’d say Bailey, Baptiste, Mittelstadt, Sobotka, Berglund, Wilson, Pilut, Nelson, Guhle and Dahlin are definitely a faster group than Nolan, Pouliot, O’Reilly, josefsson, Kane, Moulson, Tennyson, Antipin, Gorges and Falk

Especially the backline.

He replaced the 57 goals of ROR, Kane and Pouliot with the 46 of Berglund Sobotka and Sheary and crossed his fingers on kids making up the difference.

And he did change both goalies.

I think Flagg has a good point in that hitting on Dahlin and Mittlestadt gave him an opportunity to reverse Murray’s quantity for quality deals add a bunch of lottery tickets and rebuild the teamthat he wants, rather than the team he was handed.

I dont blame him though. Murray’s team objectively sucked.

Edited July 13, 2018 by dudacek

[Huckleberry]

Still don't think he is done trading though, I think he wants another top 6 winger.

[Doohickie]

That would be nice, but they don't exactly grow on trees.  Thompson may be it; time will tell.

[Thorny]

Is Karlsson still getting traded?

[WildCard]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

Is Karlsson still getting traded?

I'm amazed h hasn't been yet. Then again, Tavares is in Toronto, so what the fck do I know 

[Sabel79]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

Is Karlsson still getting traded?

I can imagine no scenario in which he stays in Ottawa, so... yeah?

[Hoss]

6 hours ago, Sabel79 said:

I can imagine no scenario in which he stays in Ottawa, so... yeah?

There’s always been reports that the team might just keep him and hope the best price is closer to the deadline which only makes sense because this is Ottawa we’re talking about.

[Derrico]

I could see a scenario where he stays until the deadline.  Even though giving up their first round pick is a sunk cost it will be a pr nightmare if they end up dfl and have to give that pick away.  I’m not saying that’s the right reason to keep him for part of the year and not what I would do.  But I also wouldn’t ignore it as a factor.  I would think the return is more than what Carolina got for Skinner but if it’s still not what they deem sufficient, I could see a scenario where he stays until the deadline. 

[Hoss]

9 minutes ago, Derrico said:

I could see a scenario where he stays until the deadline.  Even though giving up their first round pick is a sunk cost it will be a pr nightmare if they end up dfl and have to give that pick away.  I’m not saying that’s the right reason to keep him for part of the year and not what I would do.  But I also wouldn’t ignore it as a factor.  I would think the return is more than what Carolina got for Skinner but if it’s still not what they deem sufficient, I could see a scenario where he stays until the deadline. 

Karlsson’s value is exponentially bigger than Skinner’s. And if Ottawa is thinking about risking Karlsson’s value just to diminish the value of a draft pick they don’t own then they’re, well, Ottawa.

[Sabel79]

1 minute ago, Hoss said:

Karlsson’s value is exponentially bigger than Skinner’s. And if Ottawa is thinking about risking Karlsson’s value just to diminish the value of a draft pick they don’t own then they’re, well, Ottawa.

They are at all times very much Ottawa.  But even they can't shoot themselves right in the face this hard, can they?

[Derrico]

14 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Karlsson’s value is exponentially bigger than Skinner’s. And if Ottawa is thinking about risking Karlsson’s value just to diminish the value of a draft pick they don’t own then they’re, well, Ottawa.

I don't disagree.  But we also have no clue what the return is for him out there.  There have been pretty serious rumblings he is looking to sign longer term with Tampa.  There's a decent chance whoever trades for him is only getting him for that one season.  He will for sure get more than skinner but I have no clue what is being offered.  Is this a case where Ottawa is holding out until closer to the start of the season to get more or a case where there haven't been any offers overly appealing? 

[LTS]

2 hours ago, Derrico said:

I don't disagree.  But we also have no clue what the return is for him out there.  There have been pretty serious rumblings he is looking to sign longer term with Tampa.  There's a decent chance whoever trades for him is only getting him for that one season.  He will for sure get more than skinner but I have no clue what is being offered.  Is this a case where Ottawa is holding out until closer to the start of the season to get more or a case where there haven't been any offers overly appealing? 

Quite possibly the biggest problem is not knowing his long term intentions or him having stated that he wants to play in Tampa.  The Senators are already on record this season for not wanting to trade in division (Hoffman) and it didn't work out for them.  Add that to the fact that perhaps the only bidder is TBL and it makes it easy for Yzerman to low ball offers.

The deadline return might actually be better because a GM might find his team in a better spot than he thought near the deadline and be willing to give up more to give his team a push in the playoffs.  Right now there are a lot of GMs that hope their team plays to their expectations.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

23 minutes ago, LTS said:

Quite possibly the biggest problem is not knowing his long term intentions or him having stated that he wants to play in Tampa.  The Senators are already on record this season for not wanting to trade in division (Hoffman) and it didn't work out for them.  Add that to the fact that perhaps the only bidder is TBL and it makes it easy for Yzerman to low ball offers.

The deadline return might actually be better because a GM might find his team in a better spot than he thought near the deadline and be willing to give up more to give his team a push in the playoffs.  Right now there are a lot of GMs that hope their team plays to their expectations.

I think any "interested" party may just be playing the "wait and see" game about his injury. He says it's fine but his early season play may have suggested otherwise.

Just saying that it could be an issue and have an effect on the return in a deal. This could be in the back of their mind when it comes to trading for him and then wanting to sign him long term.....do you take that risk? If you do, do you try to under-cut the return on the deal?

[Scottysabres]

Not so much speculation, just a thought but I would like William Nylander on Eichel or Middlestadts wing.

[Huckleberry]

On 8/16/2018 at 5:59 PM, Scottysabres said:

Not so much speculation, just a thought but I would like William Nylander on Eichel or Middlestadts wing.

His brother will do to in time, I'm expecting him to break out this year.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

His brother will do to in time, I'm expecting him to break out this year.

It's Alex's time. Make or Break. 

[Huckleberry]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

It's Alex's time. Make or Break. 

Wouldn't say its that critical yet, I always look at the tampa core and the age they promoted to the NHL.

Besides the obvious studs like Kucherov and Stamkos, they all were 22-23 years old.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Wouldn't say its that critical yet, I always look at the tampa core and the age they promoted to the NHL.

Besides the obvious studs like Kucherov and Stamkos, they all were 22-23 years old.

For me it isn't about being promoted to the NHL when I say make or break. He should be a factor in just about every AHL game he plays. If he makes the NHL awesome but it's his 3rd AHL year. Granted it should be year 2 and granted he was injured last year but still, we should see something from him. 

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

For me it isn't about being promoted to the NHL when I say make or break. He should be a factor in just about every AHL game he plays. If he makes the NHL awesome but it's his 3rd AHL year. Granted it should be year 2 and granted he was injured last year but still, we should see something from him. 

He turned 20 in April. It should be year one, not year two.

Dylan Strome put up 53 points in 50 AHL games last year in his D3 season. Colin White had 27 in 47 games. Jack Roslovic had 35 in 32. Nick Merkley had 39 in 38.

Another interesting one from 2015 is the older Jake DeBrusk, who scored 49 points as a 20-year-old in the AHL two years ago, then 43 points in the NHL last year.

Nylander doesn’t have to play in the NHL this season to be on track, but his production this year should be in line with what these guys did as 20 year olds.

Edited August 17, 2018 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

Exactly we should see about .75 or higher in PPG from Nylander in the AHL this year. 

[Huckleberry]

Then I misunderstood you a bit, we are on same page then.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Our friend EK says we are still in on Faulk from Carolina.  Despite the dubious source, should we be interested?  What would it cost? 

Faulk is 26 with a M-NTC and 2 years left on his deal at 4.833.  He is also a RHD, who is know for his O, but not his D.

To get Faulk, re-sign Reinhart and have some cap space, we’d need to clear as much cap out as we take in.  That means shedding $5 mil in cap in a deal with Carolina or dumping guys elsewhere.

That said, I like Faulk,  but this seems like a desperation kind of move if it were true, or a no confidence vote on Bogo and/or Nelson.  It also is very TM kind of move, except that if we move out an LHD or 2 in the deal it clears a path for Guhle.

Carolina has plenty of cap space, so they have no need to trade him, but after re-signing Slavin and Pesce, acquiring Hamilton and signing DeHaan, could this be a case of Faulk essentially losing his job in the top 4 and their GM taking advantage of a shortage of RHD in the league.  

So how would you make a deal work?  Carolina looks like they need C depth and LHD depth. McCabe, Girgensons and our latest 1st in 2019 for Faulk and Carolina eating 2 mil per year of Faulk’s deal? Too much?

EDIT Actually, the more I think on it the more I like it.

Scandella Risto

Dahlin Faulk

Guhle Bogo

Hunwick Nelson

Edited August 22, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[WildCard]

If we were going to get Faulk we would have done it in the blockbuster we already did with Carolina for Skinner

That said I'm not interested. I like the build of our team right now.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

If we were going to get Faulk we would have done it in the blockbuster we already did with Carolina for Skinner

That said I'm not interested. I like the build of our team right now.

I thought about that also.  Jbot is a value buyer and Waddell’s price then might have been to high as Waddell wanted to see what kind of offers he was going to get from other suitors like Tor and Bos etc...  As teams drop out, we might get down to a price Jbot is willing to pay and Waddell willing to accept.