Hodgson or Nolan: Who is more likely gone at the end of the season?

[darksabre]

It wasn't his only reason, but it was, IMO, an added benefit; like I said and you've said, he has instilled a great culture of working hard.

 

Like it or not he chose to tank this team. If you believe Murray should be fired for that, I respect that but we're just going to have to agree to disagree. 

 

I believe that Murray's intent has been to create a base. The tank is the result of that foundation laying. Keeping a bad coach on for the hell of it is not a logical component of that process. 

[Hoss]

I will go with the write-in vote of neither.

 

Why is that not an official option in your poll, 11?

The only way there's neither is if you think that they are equally likely (or unlikely) to be gone. The question isn't do you want them gone or will they be gone, but the likeliness of it.

And, even though you believe Nolan has done well and should go on, you must admit things are looking at least a little rough for him staying on board beyond this season.

[dudacek]

No way in hell Murray hired Nolan to make the team lose.

But I have no difficulty believing he hung on to him after January, despite emerging tactical flaws, because the organization had no long-term reason to scrape out a few extra wins in this dismal season. 

 

I like the foundation analogy.

Nolan was/is good at installing the foundation of compete and playing for each other.

Now it's time to bring in a craftsman who can polish the pieces and fit them together into a work of art.

Edited March 29, 2015 by dudacek

[WildCard]

I believe that Murray's intent has been to create a base. The tank is the result of that foundation laying. Keeping a bad coach on for the hell of it is not a logical component of that process. 

I didn't say he kept him on for the hell of it, I've said it multiple times that Nolan has his place in this foundation, and it was to instill a culture. He was the perfect guy for the job, letting him go at the end of last year and hiring an interim one year coach is not logical. And yes, it would be an interim, good luck finding a good coach not named Tippet that would want to be a part of this season. 

[tom webster]

Nolan gets fired at the end of the season but only if GMTM sees an opportunity to upgrade.

 

If you believe that Nolan will be fired because of his team's performance, then you believe that GMTM has no idea how to build a hockey team, because no GM deliberately keeps a coach around if he believes that coach is harming the players or the team. The tank is no excuse for that. Nolan wasn't kept here to make the team lose, and if you believe that then you're a delusional fool.

 

Nolan will only be fired in order to upgrade to a coach GMTM covets. His performance is irrelevant, and to assume otherwise is to assume GMTM is incompetent.

 

 

Some of those guys already have that foundation. They don't need it. But to say he wont have a lasting effect on the majority of the roster, which will still be here, doesn't make any sense.

 

You also seem to be arguing that the lessons taught to that late 90s team by Ted were somehow forgotten when Lindy took over. How much of what Ted brought was Lindy able to take advantage of? Lindy surely didn't do it all himself. That team already had its personality and Nolan gave it to them.

So you want to argue that it's foolish to have him lay a foundation and then be gone while at the same time arguing that he deserves credit for laying a foundation for Lindy's teams?

I admit that my personal dislike for Nolan is probably coloring my opinion but the fact of the matter is that Nolan was here this year because the guy they really wanted either wasn't ready(Richardson) or wasn't available(Babcock or Tippet)

[Eleven]

I will go with the write-in vote of neither.

 

Why is that not an official option in your poll, 11?

 

The title of the thread uses the comparative, "more," rather than the superlative, "most," which should indicate that there are two alternatives from which to choose.  If you believe neither alternative to be more likely than the other, or both to be equally likely, oh well.

[PotentPowerPlay22]

I think both are gone. Hodgson will be dealt for a bag of pucks or a straight buy out. Nolan is not the right coach to lead this team on its climb up the standings in the next two to three years. 

 

Neither has a future with the Sabres.

[nucci]

Nolan was brought in to lay a foundation, correct? That's been the line from day one and GMTM has held to it as well. He's done his job with that. 

 

Players not here eh? Silly and wrong. You think this whole team is gone this offseason? Wake up and smell the facts. Meszaros, Benoit and the goalies are the only ones on this team that may not be here. That leaves almost the ENTIRE roster left, having been shaped by Nolan. 

 

So again, if GMTM is just going to can him, then why let him make the Sabres his team? That's like letting a bad contractor pour your foundation, firing him, and bringing in a completely different guy to build a really nice house on top of a disaster. No one would do that. And GMTM must be smart enough not to do that, correct?

 

 

By LaFontaine. I will be very surprised if Nolan is still coaching Sabres. I'm guessing Babcock is coming here but Nolan is definitely gone.

[IKnowPhysics]

I'm leaning towards neither, but I think it's more likely that we fire Nolan to pursue another coach (Babcock?) than it is that Hodgson is traded or bought out.

[TrueBlueGED]

Nolan gets fired at the end of the season but only if GMTM sees an opportunity to upgrade.

 

If you believe that Nolan will be fired because of his team's performance, then you believe that GMTM has no idea how to build a hockey team, because no GM deliberately keeps a coach around if he believes that coach is harming the players or the team. The tank is no excuse for that. Nolan wasn't kept here to make the team lose, and if you believe that then you're a delusional fool.

 

Nolan will only be fired in order to upgrade to a coach GMTM covets. His performance is irrelevant, and to assume otherwise is to assume GMTM is incompetent.

 

 

Some of those guys already have that foundation. They don't need it. But to say he wont have a lasting effect on the majority of the roster, which will still be here, doesn't make any sense.

 

You also seem to be arguing that the lessons taught to that late 90s team by Ted were somehow forgotten when Lindy took over. How much of what Ted brought was Lindy able to take advantage of? Lindy surely didn't do it all himself. That team already had its personality and Nolan gave it to them.

Nolan's performance is only irrelevant if you think wins and losses are the only measure or performance. This team was made to be bad, everyone acknowledges this. But that does not really matter to me, since I don't want Nolan fired because the team was bad. I want Nolan fired for player usage decisions (which have been outlined numerous times on this board, so I'm not repeating them) which have convinced me he is decidedly the wrong coach for this team given what the roster is likely to look like next season. I want a coach who will let his young stars play through their mistakes, not bench them the instant they do something wrong. I want a coach who is willing to use limited players in specialized roles to capitalize on their strengths. I want a coach who knows Torrey Mitchell as the top center is a terrible idea no matter how hard he is working. And lastly, I want a coach who values and coaches a possession style.

 

To answer the poll in the OP, I think Nolan is gone within days of the season ending. Hodgson, if he's gone at all, will be around until at least June.

Edited March 29, 2015 by TrueBluePhD

[Jsixspd]

Nolan gets fired at the end of the season but only if GMTM sees an opportunity to upgrade. 

 

 

I agree with this - if GMTM finds a long term Stanley Cup caliber coach available during the summer, Nolan is gone.  IF not,  he'll keep Nolan as HC until something better comes along in the fall/winter.

 

Chicago did basically the same thing with their tank coach, Savard.  They kept him on until Joe Quenneville was ready to take the Center Seat.  

[Sabres Fan in NS]

The title of the thread uses the comparative, "more," rather than the superlative, "most," which should indicate that there are two alternatives from which to choose.  If you believe neither alternative to be more likely than the other, or both to be equally likely, oh well.

 

That's fine, but I still think that neither should be an option.

 

I believe that neither is more likely then the other, as I really believe that neither will be gone.

[Patty16]

analyzing Nolan's year with a hot garbage roster designed for failure is pretty tough. TN has a bad league rep for not playing well with management so I suppose it depends on that as well as who is available. 

[nfreeman]

My 2 cents:

 

I will be stunned if Nolan is not canned shortly after the season ends.

 

I expect Hodgy to be traded or bought out by mid-July, but will not be shocked if it doesn't happen.

 

So, I think both will be gone, but am (close to) certain only on Nolan.

[3putt]

No way in hell Murray hired Nolan to make the team lose.

But I have no difficulty believing he hung on to him after January, despite emerging tactical flaws, because the organization had no long-term reason to scrape out a few extra wins in this dismal season. 

 

I like the foundation analogy.

Nolan was/is good at installing the foundation of compete and playing for each other.

Now it's time to bring in a craftsman who can polish the pieces and fit them together into a work of art.

I like the analogy as well, but I see the point D4rk is making, and think that it may be premature to jetison the rough carpenters before the walls are up, the joists in place and the roof framed. Finish carpenters do there magic inside the house, and ours is still under construction.

I agree with this - if GMTM finds a long term Stanley Cup caliber coach available during the summer, Nolan is gone.  IF not,  he'll keep Nolan as HC until something better comes along in the fall/winter.

 

Chicago did basically the same thing with their tank coach, Savard.  They kept him on until Joe Quenneville was ready to take the Center Seat.

And it is eerily similar in that the players who were left loved Savard, especially Kane. But when they saw that Q could lead them, they bought in quickly. The Hawks made Denis a great offer and he showed a lot of class taking the high road. Edited March 30, 2015 by 3putt

[Rasmus_]

Where was the C: Both?   For the right price I'm sure Hodgson can be had easily enough.  

[LGR4GM]

For the right price I'm sure Hodgson can be had easily enough.  

You just need a nice cabernet, some scented candles, a little lotion and some barry white. 

[Rasmus_]

You just need a nice cabernet, some scented candles, a little lotion and some barry white. 

 

Lol, warts and all, someone needs some healthy CoHo lovin!

[#freejame]

Let me preface this by saying Cody Hodgson has had a bad year, however, I think it  would be stupid to let him go. When looking at his metrics and numbers, it's pretty clear things just aren't going his way when he's playing his normal game (which isn't a defensive one). He's shooting an abysmal 4.3%, when his career average is 10.5%. If he were shooting his average, we're looking at an increase of seven goals getting him to 12 on the year. I know that doesn't seem like much, but once you look at his ATOI, you'll see it's down almost 2.5 minutes per game from his career average and nearly 5.5 minutes compared to last year. In fact, this season's shots total and total TOI numbers are almost even to the 48 game lock-out season. When looking for more usage differences, you'll see that he's starting more shifts in the defensive zone than ever before in his career, which for an offensive player makes little sense. I can't find the PP TOI numbers, but he is averaging 6 PPG per season compared to 0 this year. I was also unable to find a detailed line history for both this season and the last few, though I remember him playing well for a stretch of games with Moulson and Ennis. 

Again, by no means am I trying to make excuses for his play this season, but I do think it's an anomaly. The argument can be made for improper usage by Nolan, but for a Gary Roberts trained athlete, he should be used to the hard work mantra. If Nolan said ice is earned, then Hodgson deserves the season he's having. But that doesn't mean it's clearly an off year. 

[woods-racer]

This sounds like a player trying to make lemonade from the season of lemons.

 

“I love playing with Ellis,” Hodgson said. “He works so hard, creates so many loose pucks out there. He’s smart and plays on the right side of the puck, backchecks harder than anyone I’ve played with. He’s always in the right position and it makes the game easy to play.

 

Cody will be here longer than Nolan.

 

Neither will be here next year at this time.

 

I think Cody is part of trade deadline package in 2016. GMTM will let no asset walk without compensation.

Edited March 30, 2015 by Woods-Racer

[Patty16]

This sounds like a player trying to make lemonade from the season of lemons.

 

“I love playing with Ellis,” Hodgson said. “He works so hard, creates so many loose pucks out there. He’s smart and plays on the right side of the puck, backchecks harder than anyone I’ve played with. He’s always in the right position and it makes the game easy to play.

 

Cody will be here longer than Nolan.

 

Neither will be here next year at this time.

 

I think Cody is part of trade deadline package in 2016. GMTM will let no asset walk without compensation.

 

 

What would you expect back for Hodgson? 

[woods-racer]

What would you expect back for Hodgson?

If the start of 2015-16 is stellar for Cody ( through the first 35 games on pace for a 12-15 goal season) an up/down, big club/ minor club player. I keep thinking that GMTM has a hand full of the Nick Deslauriers trade types he is ready to pull off. Each club gets an NHL player if they can revive or kick start their game.

 

If Cody starts 15-16 the same as he has ended this season, a third plus rounder. Some team will take a small chance that their coach can revive Cody's game.

 

I just don't see a Cody Hodgson on the LA Kings, so I don't envision him with the Sabres, as that seems to be the model for GMTM.

[Doohickie]

Let me preface this by saying Cody Hodgson has had a bad year, however, I think it  would be stupid to let him go. When looking at his metrics and numbers, it's pretty clear things just aren't going his way when he's playing his normal game (which isn't a defensive one). He's shooting an abysmal 4.3%, when his career average is 10.5%. If he were shooting his average, we're looking at an increase of seven goals getting him to 12 on the year. I know that doesn't seem like much, but once you look at his ATOI, you'll see it's down almost 2.5 minutes per game from his career average and nearly 5.5 minutes compared to last year. In fact, this season's shots total and total TOI numbers are almost even to the 48 game lock-out season. When looking for more usage differences, you'll see that he's starting more shifts in the defensive zone than ever before in his career, which for an offensive player makes little sense. I can't find the PP TOI numbers, but he is averaging 6 PPG per season compared to 0 this year. I was also unable to find a detailed line history for both this season and the last few, though I remember him playing well for a stretch of games with Moulson and Ennis. 

 

Again, by no means am I trying to make excuses for his play this season, but I do think it's an anomaly. The argument can be made for improper usage by Nolan, but for a Gary Roberts trained athlete, he should be used to the hard work mantra. If Nolan said ice is earned, then Hodgson deserves the season he's having. But that doesn't mean it's clearly an off year. 

 

GMTM to CoHo last October:  "I think you're a good player and may have a long term future with the Sabres.  That said, this season is going to be more about development than winning.  So you're going to see some different situations than you're used to, and frankly your ice time might go down.  I don't want you to get discouraged; you're an asset in this organization.  But this season is more about bringing some of the other guys along, so you may not be put in situations that will best use your talent.  I need you to work hard off the ice and make sure you're ready when the rest of the team is.  Understand what I'm asking you, Cody?"

CoHo:  "Yes, sir."  (Unspoken thought bubble over CoHo's head:  TANK ON!")

 

If there is any one player on the team that is actively tanking for McEichel, it's Cody Hodgson.  I'm not saying he was told to go out there and tank, but if Murray gave him a "pep talk" anything like my imagined scenario above, Cody's probably smart enough to get Murray's drift.  And so when he shoots, he tries extra hard to hit the corners.... and misses.  Maybe he works hard all the way up the ice, but when it's time for that last pass.... it's not the best.  Limiting the output of the previous year's leading scorer (especially if he *wink*wink* "gets it") would be an effective strategy toward the best shot at McEichel.

 

So maybe CoHo just had an off year.  Maybe he's in on the tank.  Either way I would expect a bounce-back year come next season.

[deluca67]

Hodgson is only 25 years old. Is there any chance he can turn things around? Is there enough talent there to try and salvage over the next three seasons?

[Weave]

GMTM to CoHo last October:  "I think you're a good player and may have a long term future with the Sabres.  That said, this season is going to be more about development than winning.  So you're going to see some different situations than you're used to, and frankly your ice time might go down.  I don't want you to get discouraged; you're an asset in this organization.  But this season is more about bringing some of the other guys along, so you may not be put in situations that will best use your talent.  I need you to work hard off the ice and make sure you're ready when the rest of the team is.  Understand what I'm asking you, Cody?"

CoHo:  "Yes, sir."  (Unspoken thought bubble over CoHo's head:  TANK ON!")

 

 

This is a plausible scenario.  We are going to play you with defensive players to develop that portion of your game.