Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[sabresparaavida]

9 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Well with the extra point for OT losses, it is more possible than it used to be.  107 point pace was referenced a few times above.  10 teams (1/3 of the league) had over 107 point for the entire seasnon last year.  If 1/3 of the league can do it for the entire year, a good team should be able to do that for less than a season. 8 teams had 110 points over the entire year.

So I decided to look a bit more into it...lets look at 110 points:

-8 teams did that over the entire year, of the team that did not make 110 points..

-St. Louis played at a 110 point pace over the first half of theseason.

-Boston played at a 113 point pace from Jan 1 through the end of the year (more than half the season)

-Edmonton played at a 114 point pace the 2nd half of the season

-Pittsburgh played at a 114 point pace the 1st half of the season

-Los Angeles almost made it (108 points) in the 2nd half of the season

I didn't bother to look into any other teams, but if you really looked into the stats, it looks like half the league either got 110 points in an entire season, or had periods of half the season (or more than half the season) where they were on a 110 point pace.  So not only does it happen it is acutually pretty common.

One pretty big difference between this year and last year is the gap between non-playoff teams and playoff teams. Right now the Sabres are pacing for ~79 points and are 7th in the division, 14th in the conference. Last year the Sabres got 75 points and were 5th in the division, 11th in the conference. There was a 16 point gap in between 8th and 9th in the conference. So far this year, they’re a much better competition for those playoff spots. It’s harder for all teams to get to that pace, as there are more average-good teams, instead of just 8 good teams and 8 bad teams. 
It should make the playoff line lower than last year’s 100 points, but harder to get there.

Edited December 8, 2022 by sabresparaavida

[Mango]

28 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I don't want to start an unrelated war with the comments I'm about to make but here goes:  I know a few people that I talk to about the Sabres that say similar things. Root for Eichel (almost more than the Sabres), think the Risto trade was bad...The team got fleeced in the ROR/Tage trade no matter what happens going forward, the team will never win because they are soft...need players like Ramsey, Shoenfeld, Korab (because they were REAL players) etc, etc.   All of them have a couple things in common....they are all over 55 years old, they all will die on the hill that in EVERY sport Defense wins championships all the time, and if anyone scores more than 1 goal in a game against you or throws more than 2 td passes against you the only solution is to hit them hard over and over and over to 'teach them a lesson'.

 

This is hilariously accurate. Also in the same group text is my uncle who no Schitts creek said "When I played, I loved playing soft teams like the Sabres". Like dude, you are over 50, whose hockey career was Williamsville North. Lets calm down. 

The team isn't perfect. But for the first time in a long time, in what feels like a decade, the Sabres are playing a brand of hockey that I enjoy watching. They're incredibly elite at scoring, but deficient at goaltender. They're a relevant team in the NHL. Hockey is fun in Buffalo again. 

[matter2003]

46 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

They must have some primo hopium there.

 

Or analytics say we are a lot better than most here think and will start picking up more points.

One of the two.

Edited December 8, 2022 by matter2003

[MattPie]

37 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Well with the extra point for OT losses, it is more possible than it used to be.  107 point pace was referenced a few times above.  10 teams (1/3 of the league) had over 107 point for the entire seasnon last year.  If 1/3 of the league can do it for the entire year, a good team should be able to do that for less than a season. 8 teams had 110 points over the entire year.

So I decided to look a bit more into it...lets look at 110 points:

-8 teams did that over the entire year, of the team that did not make 110 points..

-St. Louis played at a 110 point pace over the first half of theseason.

-Boston played at a 113 point pace from Jan 1 through the end of the year (more than half the season)

-Edmonton played at a 114 point pace the 2nd half of the season

-Pittsburgh played at a 114 point pace the 1st half of the season

-Los Angeles almost made it (108 points) in the 2nd half of the season

I didn't bother to look into any other teams, but if you really looked into the stats, it looks like half the league either got 110 points in an entire season, or had periods of half the season (or more than half the season) where they were on a 110 point pace.  So not only does it happen it is acutually pretty common.

Good to very good teams. I don't think the Sabres today are capable of being a top-10 team in the league with the 1-2 questionable D pairings and goaltenders not named Anderson. Maybe if Comrie comes back and lights it up, but that's a lot of if. UPL isn't going to cut it at this point in his progress, and Anderson can't play 56 straight games to close out the season.

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

Or analytics say we are a lot better than most here think and will start picking up more points.

One of the two.

The question isn't whether they are a good team, they are.  The questions are: 

1. Is the hole they dug for themselves with the 8 game losing streak too deep to climb out of?
2. Are team's flaws (lack of depth, inexperience, goaltending) going to cause more periods of disarray?

[matter2003]

6 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

The question isn't whether they are a good team, they are.  The questions are: 

1. Is the hole they dug for themselves with the 8 game losing streak too deep to climb out of?
2. Are team's flaws (lack of depth, inexperience, goaltending) going to cause more periods of disarray?

1) I don't think so.  Just keep winning more.

2) It depends.  Mostly on Samuelsson being healthy.  For whatever reason he seems to be the key for them.

[matter2003]

 

[Thorny]

15 hours ago, Curt said:

What do you mean by historically?  Each of the past two seasons, the Sabres have won more games in the 2nd half of the season than in the 1st.

When the Sabres win games early in the season people say “we’ll see how they do when things tighten up”.  When they win games later in the season people say “it’s a lot easier to win after they are out of it and the pressure is off”.  It’s pretty funny actually.

Well, ya, because they haven’t put both together in one season for over a decade

It’s not so much funny as...accurately reflective? Lol

[Weave]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

The question isn't whether they are a good team, they are.  The questions are: 

1. Is the hole they dug for themselves with the 8 game losing streak too deep to climb out of?
2. Are team's flaws (lack of depth, inexperience, goaltending) going to cause more periods of disarray?

Yes and yes.

And Ill add a 3rd that I mentioned elsewhere.  The push for the playoffs is a learning experience.  They’ll need to learn from the process and its likely that those learnings won’t bear fruit until the NEXT time they need a playoff push.

[Doohickie]

I think the answers are maybe and maybe, but that's why we watch the games, innit?

[SwampD]

On 12/7/2022 at 7:24 AM, tom webster said:

I understand it isn’t likely but if they beat Columbus and sweep Pittsburgh in regulation they will be three points behind Pittsburgh with same number of games played. I don’t know how you can declare them out at this point of the season.

Yeah, we may be out, but it's not because of the streak. It's because of the streak and all the other games they've lost. Pittsburgh had a losing streak of 7 games and that's a team we are chasing.

On 12/7/2022 at 11:11 AM, LGR4GM said:

The Sabres are going to turn the corner in December. Once they finally bench Mitts we'll be almost there. 

I'm still hoping that Mitt's turns the corner, therefor helping the Sabres to turn the corner.

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

The question isn't whether they are a good team, they are.  The questions are: 

1. Is the hole they dug for themselves with the 8 game losing streak too deep to climb out of?
2. Are team's flaws (lack of depth, inexperience, goaltending) going to cause more periods of disarray?

I'm not so sure they are a good team. In fact, I'm pretty sure that they are merely an okay team.

The question I have is will they keep improving enough over the course of the rest of the season to start winning games they shouldn't. Other than the first two weeks of the season, they haven't don't that.

Edited December 8, 2022 by SwampD

[elijah]

For all of the “we have to play at an X point pace”

Even after the OT loss last night, the Sabres are 5-2-2 since the losing streak. That’s a 110 point pace. They were 7-3 before the winning streak, a 115 point pace. 

Maybe I’m crazy but I’m here to buckle in for the ride

[Archie Lee]

It's hard not to scoreboard watch.  Just from the games being played last night, 4 teams that we are somewhat realistically trying to catch all won (NYI, Wash, NYR and Pit).  

The Sabres seem to have course corrected after the 8 game losing streak. I think they are closer to the 7-3 team that started the year or to the 5-2-2 team post-streak than they are to being a bad team.  I'm trying to see the season as a long-game, and not get too worked-up over any single loss. 

Getting to Deluca .500 remains the key for me. If the Sabres can get to Deluca .500 by game 70, they position themselves to go on a 12 game heater to end the season and have a shot at the playoffs.  That we had no loser points until game 22 is an anomaly I think.  35-28-7 at game 70 (as an example) positions any team to finish on a hot streak and push to get in.  

[JohnC]

On 12/8/2022 at 4:14 PM, SwampD said:

Yeah, we may be out, but it's not because of the streak. It's because of the streak and all the other games they've lost. Pittsburgh had a losing streak of 7 games and that's a team we are chasing.

I'm still hoping that Mitt's turns the corner, therefor helping the Sabres to turn the corner.

I'm not so sure they are a good team. In fact, I'm pretty sure that they are merely an okay team.

The question I have is will they keep improving enough over the course of the rest of the season to start winning games they shouldn't. Other than the first two weeks of the season, they haven't don't that.

You present some interesting questions to consider. The main question you propose is: Are the Sabres a good team? As you indicate that is debatable. But there is another way of looking at that issue of being good or not. Another aspect of that issue isn't that they are a good or not so good team as it is that they are an incomplete team. In a rebuilding endeavor you are not realistically going to address all your weaknesses at the same time. What is evident is that this regime has put together two top lines and are close to assembling two top defensive pairs. There are still major voids in the lower pairing corps and in net. How quickly will those voids be adequately filled? I don't see it happening this season. If those vulnerabilities are not mostly addressed this offseason I will be very disappointed. 

[Dreams Burn Down]

2 hours ago, elijah said:

For all of the “we have to play at an X point pace”

Even after the OT loss last night, the Sabres are 5-2-2 since the losing streak. That’s a 110 point pace. They were 7-3 before the winning streak, a 115 point pace. 

Maybe I’m crazy but I’m here to buckle in for the ride

You're not crazy, but this team has many flaws to overcome to qualify for the playoffs this season.  At the bare minimum, they cannot have another significant losing streak for the remainder of the season.

 

[PerreaultForever]

On 12/8/2022 at 1:00 PM, Doohickie said:

I think the answers are maybe and maybe, but that's why we watch the games, innit?

So you haven't been watching for the last 10 years?

[mjd1001]

Now 2wins and 11 losses versus the top 10 peforming teams in the league (as I listed in another thread)

[Gatorman0519]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Now 2wins and 11 losses versus the top 10 peforming teams in the league (as I listed in another thread)

Which is why we have no chance this year. If that is like 7-5 instead of 2-11 we’d be knocking at the door. I think it’s pretty clear now who we are. A very fast but very young and inexperienced with a ton of holes still in the roster. Likely a top 10 pick is more realistic in my view. 

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

Which is why we have no chance this year. If that is like 7-5 instead of 2-11 we’d be knocking at the door. I think it’s pretty clear now who we are. A very fast but very young and inexperienced with a ton of holes still in the roster. Likely a top 10 pick is more realistic in my view. 

If they were 7-5 vs the top 1/3 of the league they wouldn't be knocking at the door, they'd be IN the playoffs.  The door they'd be knocking on is being a true SC contender.

There aren't a ton of holes, but there are key ones remaining to be filled.

[Marvin]

This team is fast and, when healthy, a decent team.  But the team's glaring holes and lack of depth show that they are not a good team yet.

[inkman]

Welp the losses and injuries, not to mention suspect goaltending, have relegated this team to another year on the outside.  The took all the momentum from the Tage 5 goal game and the legion of zoom line and stuffed it squarely up their own arses.  So disappointing. 

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, inkman said:

Welp the losses and injuries, not to mention suspect goaltending, have relegated this team to another year on the outside.  The took all the momentum from the Tage 5 goal game and the legion of zoom line and stuffed it squarely up their own arses.  So disappointing. 

It especially hurts early in the year because Pittsburgh is one of the teams the Sabres were chasing for the last wildcard spot.  Over 27-28 hours if the had won both of those games instead, they'd already only bee 4 points out of a spot and 3 behind Pittsburgh. 

Maybe we all got a little TOO excited about the whole team based on wins over San Jose and Columbus...both of which are currently 2 of the worst teams in the league. Those wins count of course, but since Thanksgiving, this team is only 3-5, with those 3 wins in OT vs Detroit and against the previously mentioned San Jose and Columbus. They are 'growing' but there is still a lot of work to do.

[nfreeman]

Well, that was a disappointing home-and-home.  They could've gotten to Deluca .500 but instead are a solid 4 games under.  Lose another 2 or 3 in a row and the deficit will be impossible to overcome.

Their next 5 are:

vs LA

at Colorado

at AZ

at Vegas

home vs TB

 

That's 4 good teams plus AZ, who they've already lost to this season.

If they go 2-3, they'll be 5 under.  1-4 and they're 7 under and the season is over, again, before New Year's.

OTOH, if they can deep and go 3-2, they'll be 3 under Deluca .500 with the next 2 at CBJ and home vs Detroit.  If they can win those 2, they'd then be 1 under, going into a road game on Dec. 31 vs... Boston!

How'd you like to beat the Bruins and have a few pops on NYE knowing that you're starting 2023 at Deluca .500, you've started to beat the good teams and you're very much alive for the playoffs?

It could happen.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Well, that was a disappointing home-and-home.  They could've gotten to Deluca .500 but instead are a solid 4 games under.  Lose another 2 or 3 in a row and the deficit will be impossible to overcome.

Their next 5 are:

vs LA

at Colorado

at AZ

at Vegas

home vs TB

 

That's 4 good teams plus AZ, who they've already lost to this season.

If they go 2-3, they'll be 5 under.  1-4 and they're 7 under and the season is over, again, before New Year's.

OTOH, if they can deep and go 3-2, they'll be 3 under Deluca .500 with the next 2 at CBJ and home vs Detroit.  If they can win those 2, they'd then be 1 under, going into a road game on Dec. 31 vs... Boston!

How'd you like to beat the Bruins and have a few pops on NYE knowing that you're starting 2023 at Deluca .500, you've started to beat the good teams and you're very much alive for the playoffs?

It could happen.

Why, that would be just DREAMY.  To be on NEARLY an 87 point pace 40% of the way through the season.  Why, they could miss the playoffs by ONLY a dozen points.  And it's NOTHING at all like that embarrassing NHL 0.500 pace that they'd've been on w/ out getting TB & Pittsburgh to OT.  It's pretty much the same as and wasaaay closer to that 98 point pace they actually need.  😉

[Porous Five Hole]

6 hours ago, Marvin said:

This team is fast and, when healthy, a decent team.  But the team's glaring holes and lack of depth show that they are not a good team yet.

I land here as well.  Elite teams have an effective third scoring line or shutdown checking line. Buffalo doesn’t have either of those quite yet. 
 

The elite is there, but qualified pieces remain unfulfilled on the above.