mjd1001

I felt they were better than their point totals earlier in the season, and they are probably not as good as they are playing now. I thought before the season that this was an 85-95 point team. Maybe I can be convinced this is a 90-100 point team now based on how they are playing recently? I beleive they are a playoff contender, but they are still close to 50-50 on making it to the playoffs. Its the goaltending. They have been getting 'just good enough' goaltending to have them keep winning close games. 13 of their 17 wins over the past few weeks have been by 1 goal or 2 goals (many of the 2 goal wins were 1 goal leads until they got the empty netter). With last year's UPL, this team would probably have half the wins over the last few weeks than they do. But this isn't last years UPL, its the 'better' version this year. Game to game, they have a very thin margin of error.

So Tuch might be moved, then again, he might stay for a while. Or he might stay long term and no one else will be signed to make room for Tuch, except Doan just got signed. Thanks Friedman, that REALLY clears things up.

I think Tuch is a top 25 winger this year. I think he was last year. But you had him last year and you have him this year. I think going forward, possibly as early as next year but if not soon after, he's not going to be a top 25 winger anymore. That is why I'm not paying him top dollar. I'd rather that money go to some young guys who are already showing promise at the NHL level and will/should get better with age the next few years, not who are already at, or over their peak. If I thought Tuch would be the exact same player next year and the year after and the year after that he was last year and this year..then yeah, sign him. But as we talked about in previous threads, he is already showing some initiatl signs of decline in his skating and shooting. Those things don't revers and suddenly get better after you turn 30.

6 years is my absolute max, and it depends on the cost for those 6, or 8 years. I might walk away from him. Tell me the term and $$ before I can say for sure though. I'd expect the only way he gets traded is if someone really wants him LONG TERM and he is moved and then signed (or a sign and trade possibly), however they want to work it, for a team that locks him up before the year is over to a big dollar deal. Other than that, I expect him to re-sign here or play out the season here.

I think that some people (not necessarily you) will read my posts and think I'm anti-Tuch. I'm not. I'm anti-giving him 8 figures per year at 6 or more years. I think Tuch is one of the best players on this team. I still maintain he is an elite forchecker, and might be an overall top 25 winger in the game. I'm happy with the Doan contract, becuase I think it kinda forces the issue on Tuch. By that I mean I think it is less on the Sabres and more on Tuch to determine if he wants to stay here for 6 years or less and under $10m. If he does, I think they can work something out, but if he doesn't want that, then he can move along. While the Sabres were in a position where they didn't pay/extend Doan, Benson, or Kesserling, Tuch and his agent might have held out hope that if they stand firm, the Sabres will give into his demands. Maybe they still think that, but they now know the Sabres have less dollars for a big contract for Tuch next year than they did up until yesterday.

For everyone comparing this to Cozens deal, after just one good season, 2 things to remember: 1.) Not only is this less dollars than Cozens deal, but in terms of the larger cap, it is a much smaller percentage of the cap. Doan getting $6.95m in the first year of the deal is, in cap percentage terms, about the same as if Cozens would have gotten only $5.5m 2.) Every deal after 'one good year' doesn't turn out this way, not even the Sabres. About the Same time the Sabres gave Cozens about $7m per year, the too a chance on a guy for the same money named Tage Thompson.

I still think there is a small window for Tuch to get done, even before the end of the season. However, if Benson and/or Kesserling are signed, and either of them gets a long-ish term deal for $4.5m per year even, then I think that is it for Tuch.

Yes, you have him this year so you are getting the best of him. I'd like to keep him this entire year, providing the team is still in the playoff race. Use that limited (now VERY limited money) to take care of Benson, probably Kesserling and Malenstyn for sure, and think about Krebs. You try to make other moves to free up space (UPL, Quinn maybe gone, who knows maybe this offseason they move on from Byram), and then in the offseason, you can see what room you have and try to re-sign Tuch. But to me a 30+ year old Tuch takes a back-seat to securing Doan (done), Benson, Kesserling and the others.

Even if you make Doan an "A" eventually, you have Dahlin as captain, and Samuelsson and Tuch as alternates. Who do you take that "A" away from?

Who knows what is the truth, but I think we heard from a few sources that Adams was offering Tuch a deal just over $7m (a bit over tage but not much), which in this cap environment even I think is a big time low-ball number. I'd like the Sabres to tell Tuch (if they haven't already), you can have 8 years at $8.5m, 7 years at $9m or 6 years at $9.5m. If he says no, then you move him at the deadline or you keep him as your 'rental' and tell him we'll talk to you in the offseason, but then you have to move on and make Benson and Kessering your priority.

Maybe not directly, but his minutes might be replaced with Doan and a Combo of Ostulund, Helenius, and Rosen. I think if you are giving Doan this much money, you are going to want him to get the same minutes he is getting or likely more. Now if most like the young guys (Östlund, Helenius, and maybe Rosen), they aren't getting all that many minutes now. If you want them to get more minutes.....well, those minutes have to come from someplace, the league is not letting you have a 4th forward out there. If Tuch was no longer there, his minutes can sprinkle down to those guys. I know we have seen plenty of young guys start out looking really good and then regressing, so its possible with Östlund. But with that said, I wouldn't mind seeing him get 3-4 more minutes per game going into next season. Give Doan an extra minute or two....and create a spot for the other guys.

I'd like both of those guys to be gone for sure. Problem is, if we don't want them here, what other teams DO want them and are willing to take on that salary without sending any salary back? Its great to say they don't have to be back, but they are under contract and its not that easy to get rid of guys that are getting 'overpaid' for what they bring just to clean up cap space for you. I think the easiest way to free up some cap space is to move on from UPL while he's playing decent, and go with Lyon and Ellis next year. That saves you $4m, but again, you have to find someone willing to take on that $4.7m that UPL is getting paid without taking salary back.

Doan is about 6.6% of the cap in year one of his deal (and it'll get better looking rapidly the next few years) Cozens deal was 8.5% of the cap in year one. That is the equivilant of Cozens signing for about $5.5m per year a few years ago.

You do need to replace Bryson if you don't bring him back, a 7th D-man does not play for free. And add to my post directly above, Kesserling, Tuch, Benson...along with Krebs/Malenstyn/Dunne and/or their replacements. Tuch hopefully is lowing his demands in order to keep him here.

Ok, good deal, I'm very happy with this as of now. Now going forward, next year.... Sabres have $44.5m dedicated to forwards. $32.1 to D-men, about $7m to goalies, and almost $6.5m toward Skinner's hit ($6.444) That means they have $83.6m spent already. 104m should be the cap. Figure in that JK said you want to keep a couple million avaialbe (lets so $2m low end) to give you flexibility to simply make moves/allow for injuries, and you have $18.4m left. So what do you need to do with that $18.4m? Lets mentally work from the bottom up. Tuch, Benson, Krebs and Malenstyn (or their replacements, and Josh Dunne for that matter). Kesserling, Bryson (or his replacement). That is what you need to fill out your roster. If Krebs and Malenstyn only get a minimal/cap inflation related increase that is $3m-$3.5m there (and they play enough minutes you don't want to replace them with league minimum players). You are left with about $15m-$15.4m Josh Dunn can be resigned or be replaced with league minimum leaving you with $14.7m. A 7th D-man to replace Bryson on the roster will be about 900k-$1m. That leaves you with about 13.7m So, $13.7m. For Kesserling, Benson, and Tuch? How is Tuch now going to get $11m per year leaving a total of $2.7m for both Kesserling AND Benson? If Tuch gets anything ove $9m per year, its going to require gutting some other parts of the roster that are contributing, or requiring a hypnotist to take contracts off of your hands that you don't want that somehow you can convince other teams they actually want.