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mjd1001

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Everything posted by mjd1001

  1. Through most of the recent NHL season, if you can be even or positive in your teams goal differential, that gets you in the playoffs or very close. No guarantees, but each year it is only 1 or 2 teams that are positive that don't make the playoffs, and about the same number of teams that are negative that do make the playoffs. So how do the Sabres closer to even, or possbily even positive? Last year they were -58. The average goals scored/allowed per team was I THINK 266 last year. How do the Sabres get from where they were last year to there? The scored 232 so they need to get 34 more goals scored. They allowed 290, so they have to cut that down by 24. What if the Sabres got better goaltending? The league average save percentage last year was .902. The 20th, 21st, and 22nd best goalies in the league last year (anyone over 35 games played) were at .910. The Sabres allowed 2702 shots last year. With leage average goaltending, they would allow 268-270 goals, almost 25 less than last year. With a goalie/goaltending at .910 (20th best in the league last year), they would allow 245 goals. Want to take it a bit further? The Sabres allowed more shots than an average team, in addition to stoping less shots. With Dahlin getting one year better, Power and Sameulson improving the D unit, what if the Sabres just became league average in terms of shots allowed? That brings them down to just over 2600 shots allowed (almost 100 less than last year). So my numbers might not be correct down to the goal but I think they are close. If they can allow league average shots and get league average goaltending, they allow 266 goals. If they can get that 20th best goaltending (.910) and allow league average shots, that gets them down to about 235-240 goals, (which would be 50-55 of an improvement from this season) I'm not saying they will, or could do any of that. But any combination of those gets them most of where they need to go in terms of goals allowed. If, IF they got top 20 NHL goaltending AND cut shots allowed down to league average, they would be very close to that even goal differential without even scoring any more goals.
  2. I have no idea how many goals he will score, whether he will regress or not. I'm hoping he doesn't and if I had to place a bet I'd say he won't, but I would not be surprised by anything. A lot of it has to do with the fact that scoring is up across the NHL, due to rule changes, how the game is getting called, goalie equipment. Whatever. Tage finished 19th in the league in goals last year with 38. Go back a decade ago and the 20ths best goal scorer in the league were hitting the high 20's or right around 30 goals. He is actually listed as 28th in the league in terms of 'goals per game' last year with anyone that played more than half the season (.49 ggp). Can he repeat that? Sure. If scoring goes up slightly again next year, and his 'goals per game' goes up to .5 or .52 (a slight increase) and he playes a full 82 games...there is your 40+ goals. And if he takes a step back, how much? It'll be interesting to track his production as the season progresses, in light of his new contract extension.
  3. As far as locking threads, I'm all for keeping them open. If people want to keep posting the same things over and over, well, then let us. If the threads have 2 people causing problems, then suspend those people for a few days to calm them down. The only reason I think a thread should be locked is if it is totally out of hand with multiple people just going at each other and getting way off topic (politics for example) With that said, I think 35th sounds abour right for Eichel now. Is he capable of having a top 10 single season? Sure. But I don't see him as anywhere close to being a top 10 player. His 2 best seaons where 18-19 and 19-20. Take only those 2 seasons, and he wasn't even in the top 10 in scoring among forwards. Let along how many D-men were better 'overall' players than him, and that is over his 2 best seasons. For his career he is what he is. 47 overall in points since he got in the league. 58th in goals. Injuries DO matter, but take out his games missed and look at his 'per game' totals and he still is 35th (how about that) in points per game. While he isn't a total trainwreck in his own end, hes also not moving up the list of 'overall' play with his defensive skills. The forget about points, how many D-men or goalies are better overally players that don't rank above him in points due to D-men usually not getting as many points? Again, I'm not saying he is awful, and he just may have some top-10-in-the-league scoring seasons in him at times, but until he shows a few of those in a row, I'm comfortable with saying he is close to that 35th area.
  4. I'm not sure if you are serious or joking. He is a good player, a VERY good player. But I think this is a major over-pay. He is already in the prime of his career, the most goals he has ever scored was 22 in full season (and that was 6 years ago). He has never since scored over 20 and last year he played most of a full season (73 games) and only scored 15 during a year when league scoring was WAY up. He was tied for 186th in the league in goals last year, and if you include his rookier year (which was his best year) for his career there are 132 players who have scored more goals than him. If you want to count assists also, he is still only 62nd in the league in total 'points'. Again, he is good, he is very good, he puts up assists, but I can't see paying a player what is going to be about 10% or more of your cap (over the contract length) when he has scored over 20 goals once in his career. If you value his 2 way play, he is a good leader, and he puts up 40+ assists in addition to his 15-20 goals then fine, pay him 7% of your cap, maybe 8%. But $9+ million dollar contracts have to be reserved for guys that will net you at least 30 on a consistent basis and bring those other things too.
  5. Figure out a way to not make penalties such a big part of the sport and so influential to the viewer of the races. You want some ideas that may not be perfect but would be a starting point to doing this... -Too many "5 second penalties" issued during the race or even worse, AFTER the race. Someone does something terrible in the race, black flag them (or whatever the F1 equivilent is) and make them do a pass-through down pit lane, right away. Issuing a 5 second penalty 'after' the race is awful. -Some drivers suggested this one a month or two ago. You want drivers to stop cutting the corners too short, someone brought up a 'coated gravel' right on the edge of the racing surface. Drivers CAN drive over it without crashing or causing gravel to go all over the track, but it will give them a terrible vibration and going over it just a couple times might even lead to excess tire wear (but likely no blow-outs) -In place of some of the in-race penalties, start issuing HEAVY fines and take away point after the race. If its not a driver error but a 'team' error that causes a penalty, start supsending guys from the team. Start suspending and banning team principals from a race or two, with some hefty fines on the team, and I'll bet a lot of the garbage stops pretty quick/
  6. I get frurtated with all the rules in F1, but at the same time I follow it more. Races last no more than 2 hours and zero commercials during it. They redid the entire track in Atlanta, added a lot more banking and made the track narrower. It now drives more like Daytona or Talladega than it does other mid-sized tracks. Traditionalists hate it but I love how it races now. To me, it is 90% of the way to superspeedway racing, drafting matters, cars drive in packs, but it isn't quite to the level of Daytona or Talladega. Its hard to describe exactly. Just to me the races there became a LOT better and not like any other track at all. If you want to take a few seconds and see what it looks like:
  7. -Toronto Blue Jays, sneaky good season. I haven't followed MLB too closesly this year but earlier in the year I though they were in trouble, they look better now. -Formula one. Too many rules and too many penalties. I know, it is different than Nascar, but figure out how to do it differently. Too many engine penalties, Cost cap penalties. Track limit penalties during the race. Safety car violations for being too close or too far from the safety car (in Nascar I have seen drivers bump the 'pace car') Multiple investigations for incidents during the race. Time penalties assessed AFTER the race. Again, I'm not saying it is easy, but figure things out! -Nascar. medium length ovals are boring. Change all those tracks to the new Atlanta layout or just replace them. -Hockey. Just can't wait for it to start.
  8. Lamar Jackson starting vs Buffalo in his career (3 starts including the playoffs): 1 win, 2 losses 4 passing TD's, 4 Ints 64% completion percentage 150 passing yards per game (Average) Either he is due for a huge, major game vs the Bills, or something about the Bills D-scheme shuts him down better than most other teams.
  9. I'm fine with no drama, I just want to see this roster the first 10 games. I always though Krebs was just abot 100% to make the roster, never thought that was in doubt. I'm interested in Pilut. Is he in Roch? is he #7? or does he actually crack the opening day top 6?
  10. Anyone know the rules based on his age and the AHL next year? If he doesn't make the Sabres NEXT year, could he go to Rochester or would have have to be in juniors?
  11. Who does everyone think has a better shot? Accuracy, release, everthing. Thompson or Olofsson?
  12. It is hard to say much else other than 20-25 goals and about 60 points in a full season. He has a body of work now in the NHL and that would appear to be the player he is. Any upside surprise to that production would be welcome, but if he goes well beyond that it indeed would be a surprise. On a note related to Tuch, I don't remember but was he nursing an injury toward the end of the year. Not only did is production dip slightly, but look at his ice time. Coming off the injury he had when he was traded to the Sabres, his first 25-30 games with the Sabres he had a noticably higher ice time per game than he did the last 20 games. Toward the end of the year, he had a couple games with under 15 minutes of ice time, and most games he was in the 16-18.5 minute range. In the earlier part of the season, he has several games with well over 20 minutes per game. Was he injured during the last month or so to cause the limiting of ice time? Or does anyone know of an obvious reason I'm missing or forgetting about?
  13. Elite 'goal scoring' is not elite. Goal scoring is only one part of a players game. A big part, but only one part. My whole point, and the point of this thread i was responding to was about him being an 'elite player'. If you want to move the goal posts away from the discussion about him being an 'elite player' to an 'elite goal scorer' to fit your argument, fine. He still isn't that currently as an NHL player. AHL and OHL are not the NHL. Plenty of players had 'elite' goal scoring in the minors without it translating to the NHL. For the argument of what kind of player he will be in the NHL, with NHL experience already, tjunior/minor scoring means little to me (and I never referenced it in my argument) So, in the NHL, 17 goals in 51 games in his first year and 41 in 74 last year is NOT elite. It is GOOD...do not confuse good or very good with Elite. -Last year he was 13th in thee league in goals. Very good? Yes. Elite? Not if you aren't in the top 5 for the "Elite" label. -The last 2 years, he is 18th in the league in goals. Not elite -The last 2 years, he is 33rd in the league in points. Not elite -He missed some games, so how about per games played? Last 2 years he is tied for 32 in points per game, 26th in goals per 60, 10th in points per 60, 19th in goals per game, 32nd in points per game. Those are very good, but not elite numbers. I don't know what you consider Elite, but none of that is close to elite in my book. You need to be top 10, PROBABLY top 5 to be considered elite. I understand you like him. I know he is very productive. He scores more than anyone on the Sabres, he might get even better than he is. But in no way has he been up to now 'elite'.
  14. 30th in the league is good, not elite. I reserve the term elite for the best of the best, not someone who had one good year finishing in that position in the league. Good, great, elite. He is not elite. Matthews, draisatl, Ovie. Top 10 in points or top 5 in goals. Robertson is not there.
  15. Honestly, hes just not someone I want the Sabres to chase. I don't think he is a good 2 way player and he is a very good finisher but he doesn't create many chances at all by himself. He is good, but not Elite. If the Sabres WANTED to trade for him, I don't know. To me he is the type of player you WANTED Jeff Skinner to be when you signed his contract. Skinner was never going to kill penalties, he wasn't going to be a player to transition the puck out of your own zone. He was just going to put up goals and be good around the net with a good shot. When I see Robertson, I think I would value him like Reinhart, just with a bit more size and a slightly better shot, but a bit less playmaking ability. What is that worth to you? To me, I like the prospects/young guys the Sabres have now so I'd rather roll the dice with them and see which pan out. If Dallas wanted to take a future protected (non top-10) first rounder, Mitts, and a 2nd tier prospect I'd think about that. But I don't think Dallas does that and for the Sabres I don't want to do more than that. Then you have to consider what he wants to get paid. Again, I don't want to pay someone like him $9 million per year AND give up assets fro him when he isn't a complete player and he has done it for 'one' year.
  16. I don't get to elite with him. He is close to an elite goal scorer (has that potential) and has a very good overall offensive game. I can get to very good/bordering on great as a player MAYBE, but not elite when you are 5 years from your draft, 30th in the NHL in scoring over the last 2 years, a below average skater who is so average defensively he isn't relied on to kill penalties ever.
  17. Of course I'd look into it, but without knowing many details, I'd say its isn't something I am going to pursue all that hard. If the issue in Dallas is a contract issue, that means he is, in some way, looking for something Dallas isn't willing to give. They already HAVE him, they don't have to give anything up for him and they are still reluctant to give/pay what he wants. The question for any other team is, do you want to trade the assets needed to get him and then pay him what is likely 'not to be' a bargain contract? Again, I'd look into it but I wouldn't push that hard for someone who scored over 40 goals 1 time.
  18. I was making a point about message boards in general, which happens here on a rare occasion, but does happen a lot with the Bills forum. Not all the time, but most of the time I go out of my way (especially on the Bills side of things) to not say anything offensive, to not 'go at' anyone or demean their point. Yet often times, especially after a Bills loss, people are just full-speed-ahead with extreme comments that if you even slightly disagree with them you get attacked back. Again, happens here on occasion, happens there a lot, and I was making a general point about it.
  19. I guess it makes sense to not read the forums for 24 hours after a loss....and I guess with this response I am going to complain myself. And I understand that the reason message boards exist is for people to say what they want...give their opinions...weather I or anyone else agree with it. I get that. Its just that some people seem to get so bent out of shape, i really don't understand the "They lost one game-the team is terrible-the coach should have been fired years ago-this team will never win again unless they do what I say-you better not challenge my opinion or I will respond to you with all the more hate and self righteousness than anyone has ever seen " type of attitude. I just don't get it.
  20. I was responding directly to your post where you said "a year or two from the draft, where he was selected, outside of 1st rd picks" I kinda figured going up to 7 years was going to cover the yea or two that you mentioned, and I compared 'higher picks' to 6th and 7th rounders because you referenced the 05/06 Sabres and how many of those players were after the 2nd round. So, My view is for sure not to limited, unless you want to move the goal posts on your argument, which it appears you do. To me looking at things at least 10 years in the past or more...well, the NHL was different then. Player development was different then. Things were much different back then compared to how development is viewed now. But even if you do that...I looked at the 2000, 2001 and 2002 NHL draft now just to see what late round picks were and how they did....and I saw a total of 2 players (out of more than 250) that were taken in the last 3 rounds of all of those drafts who had an entire career where they scored even 100 goals...and those 3 guys were P.A Parenteau, Marek Svatos, and Matthew Lombardi...all of those barely had over 100 goals for their entire career and none were exactly difference makers. I agree later round picks are just throwaway picks, and I hope the Sabres can have players that can be impact players (you mentioned Olofsson, and he is a good example of this), but my point is that it sure does matter where a player was drafted. With equal development of a 'higher round' draft pick compared to someone taken at the back of the draft, you are much, much more likely to get a productive player with that middle to late 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick than you are with a later round guy.
  21. Kozak will be interesting to watch, and I'm not going to say lower round draft picks cannot be good players or make the team, but the numbers show that where a player is drafted does have a lot to do with where they will end up being, at least in recent history decade: 2015 NHL Draft: 62% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 25% of players drafted in rounds 6-7 have. 2016 NHL Draft: 70% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 18% taken in rounds 6-7 have. 2017 NHL Draft: 55% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 15% taken in rounds 6-7 have. 2018 NHL Draft: 40% of players drafted in rounds 2-3 have played NHL games, 8% taken in rounds 6-7 have. Obviously as we get closer to 2022, the numbers keep trending lower. In addition to that, a total of 309 goals have been scored in the NHL by all players drafted in those years from 6-7 rounds, while over 1400 goals have been scored in the same years from players drafted in rounds 2-3. If you go back a decade, all the way to the 2012 NHL draft, only a total of 7 players picked have a career total of over 50 goals, and not one of them has reached 100 career goals.
  22. The Bills lost. Players made mistakes. Injuries were a bigger issue than normal. Coaches made some bad decisions. It happens to every team, each and every week in the NFL. Did I like that the Bills lost? of course not. But the last 12-16 hours I have had a hard time reading the Bills forums. It is becoming harder and harder for me to read/engage in conversation where many posters want to place blame on 'their favorite place or topic' for a loss. They lost. They will lose again. The team that wins the superbowl will likely have a number of losses throughout the year. Leading up to the Sabres season, the Sabres are likely to be a LOT less successful than the Bills this year, but I'm looking forward to the Sabres season more. Why? When fans have such high expectations like they do for the Bills this year, then every loss, every bad QUARTER leads to non-stop whining and complaining by some fans that takes away the enjoyment from the season.
  23. Agree, A bills wouldn't be wrong to look at this game in a similar way to the Buffalo/New England game in Orchard park last year in the wind storm. A lot of things happened (weather, injuries) that will not be the same going forward. It is a loss and it counts, just like New England beating the Bills last year.....but this loss isn't a good predictor of the future.
  24. Girgs had .32ppg game last year. Take a look at this article: https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/analysis/2017/6/13/15759364/the-modern-4th-line-in-the-nhl-more-than-just-treading-water-analysis-fourth-line The point about production: The players examined here averaged 0.30 PPG, which pro-rates to 24.6 points over 82 games. These numbers aligned relatively well with a raw analysis of NHL scoring: the forwards ranking between 271st and 360th in the regular season points standings averaged 0.26 PPG (21.3 points over 82). Looking at the distribution: The bottom 25% produced between 0.00 and 0.19 PPG (0 to 15.6 points over 82) 26-50% produced between 0.20 and 0.28 PPG (16.4 to 23.0 points over 82) 51-75% produced between 0.29 and 0.42 PPG (23.8 to 34.4 points over 82) The top 25% were between 0.43 and 0.62 PPG (35.3 to 51.7 points over 82) So Girgs is slightly above average in terms of points, and it the 2nd out of 4 quarters (2nd highest) I haven't run all the stats but if you look at most NHL 4th liners he is even better ranked among those players in goals per 60 than he is in points. Add to that the fact that he is good at penalty killing, is a great locker room guy, and all the things I mentioned in my previous post, and I'm not sure he is as replaceable as some thing, or that there is a good reason to just expect he should be replaced.
  25. That is where I disagree with you. He is better than that. As I said earlier, what I see, he isnt just a guy 'good enough' for penalty killing....to me is is good at it, which gives him a role on this team. Also, while not super productive, he is pretty good for a 4th liner at actually scoring. This team has had too many players on the 4th line since they have last been good, who just couldn't score at all over the last decade or so (Kaletta, Flynn, Deslaurier, Legwand, Larsson, and many others who played full seasons with 5 goals or less). While Zemgus isn't a first liner of course, he does score at a .5 goals 5v5 per 60 rate....which is in the same area as players like Oloffsson and Okposo over that same period. That isn't insignificant. I just don't see the hungry young guy who is going to play a role on the 4th line that will be better at penalty killing, better at scoring in that role, and will be so much better that you push a guy out like Zemgus who is also a team leader (as much as his position allows). Unless he suffers a major injury, I want him in this team for at least a few more years in his role.
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