Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[Thorny]

7 hours ago, Taro T said:

And courtesy of everybody else in the top 7 WC slots losing their last game, should the Sabres win all their games in hand, they'd be in the 8th seed.  A tall order, but they are still in a position where they can take care of matters on their own without worrying about what anybody else is doing.  They still are very much in this race on the Ides of March.  10 years since that was the case.

Technically Florida would be but ya. They own the breaker currently 

Edited March 15, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Technically Florida would be but ya. They own the breaker currently 

If the Sabres win of that game they have in hand is in regulation they get the tie breaker.  Had said that in another post.  Didn't add that caveat to the one you quoted.  Sorry.

[Thorny]

13 minutes ago, Taro T said:

If the Sabres win of that game they have in hand is in regulation they get the tie breaker.  Had said that in another post.  Didn't add that caveat to the one you quoted.  Sorry.

Isn’t the tie breaker regulation wins? In which case Florida still has it 

[Taro T]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Isn’t the tie breaker regulation wins? In which case Florida still has it 

Yes it is.  And you're correct, the Swamp Cats would hold the tie-breaker on the Sabres.  Was looking at the total wins column, not the RW column.  D'oh!

[pi2000]

On 3/7/2023 at 10:07 AM, pi2000 said:

Halfway through this 16 games in 28 day marathon they've collected 8 of a possible 16 points.

Their next 4 opponents are all currently playoff teams with an average .620 points percentage..  @NYI, DAL, NYR, @TOR

This stretch will make or break their playoff chances.   They need to scratch out at least 4 points, someway somehow. 

Collecting 3 out of possible 8 points vs NYI, DAL, NYR, and TOR gives them a total of 11 out of 24 possible points 3/4 of the way through this 16 in 28 day marathon.

That's a points percentage of .458... clearly not good enough to keep pace with the wildcard teams.

4 games remaining in this stretch... @WAS, @PHI, BOS, NSH.  

4 wins would put them at a .594 points percentage for this 16 game stretch and firmly in the wildcard mix.

 

[DarthEbriate]

On 3/9/2023 at 8:55 PM, DarthEbriate said:

"Not out!" yells RJ, but now you can hear the alarmed strain in his voice. You can see the hand gripping the mic and the eyes starting to just bulge ever so slightly. This time it was a wimp backhand on a rolling puck that just sent the puck dribbling up past the dots right to the pinching D-man who has whipped it 'cross-ice to his partner who has an open lane to move in toward the goal -- primed to shoot again or pass. The defense is collapsing back toward the net as the shift surpasses 70 seconds.

Shot! The goalie makes a toe save (to pick up a point vs. WSH), but the puck caroms right to the base of the circle. A defender lost leverage (surprise) and is playing without a stick after his was busted earlier... the puck is heading right for the unobstructed Flyer on the far side of the net. He has a yawning cage to shoot at....

[mjd1001]

a 91 to 92 point pace has been what the projections for the Wildcard in the east have been for quite some time. I posted a few times, but in December it was 91 points.  A day in January I looked it it and it was 91 points.  A few weeks ago it looked to be between 91-92 points. And as of this morning?  91-92 points.  So whether the Sabres are 'out of it or not', the easiest way to look at it is..how likely is it they can finish the season with 91 or 92 points?

[JohnC]

Within this WGR link is a 25 min interview with Dan Dunleavy. The focus of the discussion is on having a perspective on where this team is in comparison to some of the more established and veteran teams. You can skip the first five minutes which focuses on arenas. In this interview, you get a more positive sense of where this team is at and trending. We often have similar discussions here. Participants here such as @dudacekand @Taro T and some others, periodically, try to quell the heat of the emotions after some frustrating and exasperating losses by acknowledging and accepting that disappointments are part of the process. It's good hockey talk. 

 

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/authors/howard-and-jeremy-show

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

a 91 to 92 point pace has been what the projections for the Wildcard in the east have been for quite some time. I posted a few times, but in December it was 91 points.  A day in January I looked it it and it was 91 points.  A few weeks ago it looked to be between 91-92 points. And as of this morning?  91-92 points.  So whether the Sabres are 'out of it or not', the easiest way to look at it is..how likely is it they can finish the season with 91 or 92 points?

Which means the Sabres need to win ten out of their last 15 games (to get to 92 points). 

[Weave]

Fork tender.  They are done.

[Gatorman0519]

This never was a playoff team. Never. Just a really good number one line and Cozens and Dahlin. Still need a significant roster overhaul before I personally ever connect this team to the “p” word. In fact, there is no end in sight to this sh/& show. 

[DarthEbriate]

8 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Shot! The goalie makes a toe save (to pick up a point vs. WSH), but the puck caroms right to the base of the circle. A defender lost leverage (surprise) and is playing without a stick after his was busted earlier... the puck is heading right for the unobstructed Flyer on the far side of the net. He has a yawning cage to shoot at....

The puck did not bounce over the Flyers' stick.

RJ yells: "It's in the net!"

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

This never was a playoff team. Never. Just a really good number one line and Cozens and Dahlin. Still need a significant roster overhaul before I personally ever connect this team to the “p” word. In fact, there is no end in sight to this sh/& show. 

 

[Goldseatsaud]

45 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

This never was a playoff team. Never. Just a really good number one line and Cozens and Dahlin. Still need a significant roster overhaul before I personally ever connect this team to the “p” word. In fact, there is no end in sight to this sh/& show. 

I don’t see a overhaul. Trust the process. Lol

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Gatorman0519 said:

This never was a playoff team. Never. Just a really good number one line and Cozens and Dahlin. Still need a significant roster overhaul before I personally ever connect this team to the “p” word. In fact, there is no end in sight to this sh/& show. 

We have more than that.  I think Quinn and Power show great promise.  Peterka and Krebs are kids that did OK this season. 
 

Add a few defenseman.  Turn over a few vets for better vets.   Get a goalie.  That is not an overhaul, it’s coming along.  
 

Still not yet convinced the coaches are good enough on game day.  

[Carmel Corn]

8 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

We have more than that.  I think Quinn and Power show great promise.  Peterka and Krebs are kids that did OK this season. 
 

Add a few defenseman.  Turn over a few vets for better vets.   Get a goalie.  That is not an overhaul, it’s coming along.  
 

Still not yet convinced the coaches are good enough on game day.  

Agree, they're not that far away from contention.  I'd also like to see some forward changes in terms of adding players who play a heavier game including boardwork, contact, forechecking and going to the net.

[PerreaultForever]

15 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Agree, they're not that far away from contention.  I'd also like to see some forward changes in terms of adding players who play a heavier game including boardwork, contact, forechecking and going to the net.

BUT, they aren't any closer and won't get any closer without making the additions discussed above including the heavier forwards. They could have made some of those moves this year and been in contention. I have zero faith that they'll make those moves this off season. 

[PASabreFan]

23 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Agree, they're not that far away from contention.  I'd also like to see some forward changes in terms of adding players who play a heavier game including boardwork, contact, forechecking and going to the net.

Contention for what?

[Carmel Corn]

2 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Contention for what?

For the playoffs....I don't see them getting in this year, but next year is certainly an expectation.

[North Buffalo]

13 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

For the playoffs....I don't see them getting in this year, but next year is certainly an expectation.

Not without some changes.  serious changes... lose Ollie.... add a goalie plus Levi... A tough defender and a tough skater... bring up Savoie and Kulich and draft some defenders... Oof was hoping they'd show something down the stretch run to justify playoffs but yeh the younguns are not ready.

Edited March 18, 2023 by North Buffalo

[Weave]

34 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Contention for what?

The Enduring Moderation of Mediocre

One of the things that is remarkable about mediocre is the extent to which it has retained its meaning over the course of more than four centuries of continual use. The word, when used as an adjective, has changed very little, if at all, in its meaning since it was used in a 1586 book titled The English Secretorie(our earliest known evidence): “Mediocre, a meane betwixt high and low, vehement and slender, too much and too little as we saye. . . .” The word comes to English via Middle French from the Latin word mediocris, meaning "of medium size, moderate, middling, commonplace," and perhaps originally "halfway to the top." The noun form of mediocre is mediocrity.

[Marvin]

3 hours ago, Weave said:

The Enduring Moderation of Mediocre

One of the things that is remarkable about mediocre is the extent to which it has retained its meaning over the course of more than four centuries of continual use. The word, when used as an adjective, has changed very little, if at all, in its meaning since it was used in a 1586 book titled The English Secretorie(our earliest known evidence): “Mediocre, a meane betwixt high and low, vehement and slender, too much and too little as we saye. . . .” The word comes to English via Middle French from the Latin word mediocris, meaning "of medium size, moderate, middling, commonplace," and perhaps originally "halfway to the top." The noun form of mediocre is mediocrity.

So the Sabres have advanced from embarrassing to mediocre?

Let us see who will be here next year.  I will not assume any sentimental favourites will remain. I also will not assume any prospects will make the team, but they can and will be called up.  I will assume this season's youth will be kept.  As usual, I assume that the NHL norms that a playoff team needs 5 forward lines, 4 defencive pairs, and 4 goalkeepers of NHL-Quality depth for the season.  Although not ideal, the 5th line, 4th pair, and 3rd goalkeeper can be borderline NHLers.

Forwards:

Skinner-Thompson-Tuch

Peterka-Cozens-Quinn

Mittlestadt-Krebs-_____

_____-_____-_____

Kulich, Savoie, Östlund, Greenway

Defence:

Samuelsson-Dahlin

Power-_____

_____-Jokiharu

Stillman-Lyubushkin

Johnson

Goal:

_____

Lukkonnen

Levi

Comrie

Subban

Houser

The one saving grace for this is that the hard parts are there except in goal.  GMKA seems to recognise that we need some heavier players, so I have hope that next season will have a better-balanced team.  Now if only they can learn how to play good team defence and how to beat good team defence.

The one glaring problem is, of course, in goal.  I have no confidence that anyone the Sabres currently have will rise to be at least an average NHL goalkeeper next season.  And, as of now, no one I would want to acquire will be available at a price that I would be willing to pay.  Any UFAs and RFAs look good?

Edited March 18, 2023 by Marvin

[mjd1001]

I have said over and over on this board that the Sabres are not out of the race. If you can 'get back in it' then you are never out of it.  This team has had winning streaks all year and I always said to myself..if they run of 3 in a row or get 7 out of 8 points are they 'back in it'?  If the answer was yes (and it has always been yes) then to me they aren't out of it.

After yesterday, while they are technically still in it....yesterday's game for me is the game where I now consider them out of it.  If they win 4 in a row will I be wrong? yes, but in my mind, I'm not thinking playoffs anymore and the philly game did it for me.

With that said, I'm not all that upset. This team seems to have hit some kind of wall.  But I think you have one of the top 10 first lines in the league.  I think Dahlin has been playing bumped up (all those games were he got 25+ minutes early in the year WITH a couple minor injuries are starting to show), but when rested and healthy I think Dahlin may be the best 2 way D-man in the league.  I'm anxious to see Power get better. Cozens is taking a big step forward, Mitts is 'kinda' settling into some kind of roll, and Peterka and Quinn are having respectable years.  The important players on this team are under 30, many/most under 25 so that bodes well for next season.  Seeing this team add Levi and (hopefully) Johnson, seeing what will happen with adding a couple guys for the Back end....that will make the offseason exciting for me.

As I'm writing this it is coming across to me that the Sabres seaons just ended and there are no games left.  Again, I don't think they will anymore but they still can run off a streak and get into the playoffs, but for having accepted this team doesn't deserve the playoffs yet, overall I'm OK with the direction. 

I keep looking at New Jersey, they got their young guys. They played them a lot of ice time. Those young guys made a lot of mistakes and sometimes looked not that good.  The team floundered for a few years. They finished behind the Sabres last year and if you look at their roster and moves, you could be saying the same things the Sabres fans are (why aren't they making any moves, the young guys aren't taking as big of a step forward as we want, etc).  But then when management was happy with the team, despite the lack of patience of the fans, they made those one or two moves AND the young guys took that final step forward and they went from a team that finished below the Sabres last year and has less total points than the Sabres in the last 4 years to one of the better teams in the league.

Edited March 18, 2023 by mjd1001

[Night Train]

2-6-2 in the last 10.  That speaks for itself. 

[inkman]

13 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

This never was a playoff team. Never. Just a really good number one line and Cozens and Dahlin. Still need a significant roster overhaul before I personally ever connect this team to the “p” word. In fact, there is no end in sight to this sh/& show. 

I agree that playoffs were not very realistic to start the season. Then they were better than we all thought and have regressed back to what we thought they’d be all along. Challenging for a playoff spot at this point in the season.  It’s been largely disappointing mainly due to their own success.  
 

They need a more well rounded roster.  You aren’t going to win games that matter with 14 offense first forwards and 2/3 of your D being offense first as well, especially with below average goaltending.  
 

I really like Okposo and Girgs but I need more out of those kind of players.  More offense, more hitting, harder to play against. They also need to figure out something with 71, 37, 17.  Maybe Jost is worth keeping but I’m not sure.  
 

The D needs at least one significant addition and a couple rugged D first options. Not sure if 61 fills that bill. After a promising start, it seems to have been fueled by adrenaline.  
 

I’d like to see 5-8 new faces next season.  I don’t think Kulich or Savoie are going to help the roster diversity much.  Kinda more of what you already have.  If they want to upgrade 37 & 71 with those two, it makes sense.  Still like to see a couple rugged forwards who are defensively minded that other teams can’t stand. Though Greenway could fill one of those slots but he looks not very good at this point.  Maybe pairing 12 with those rugged guys would get more out of him and solidify the bottom.  
 

This team is hardly a finished product.  I’m hoping at the very least they do a minor retooling with the roster. Goaltending will sort itself out.  Let Levi, UPL and Comrie battle it out next season and let the two best take the jobs. Not opposed to bring it a sold vet goalie for a season but I don’t think it’s happening.  
 

I think the future is bright. Now Kevyn needs to show us what he’s worth.  Complete this roster and make it a contender.