Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[GASabresIUFAN]

@Thorny Are you giving me the thumbs down or the playoff projections.  If it’s the projection, don’t shot the messenger.

Edited March 6, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorny]

16 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@Thorny Are you giving me the thumbs down or the playoff projections.  If it’s the projection, don’t shot the messenger.

I don’t think the rankings are garbage they just have a particular skew. But it’s not “garbage” because there’s no hidden bias. Models resulting in wrong predictions sometimes doesn’t make them wholly bad 

[GASabresIUFAN]

47 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I don’t think the rankings are garbage they just have a particular skew. But it’s not “garbage” because there’s no hidden bias. Models resulting in wrong predictions sometimes doesn’t make them wholly bad 

I'm sorry but the Athletic's model is garbage.  It is overly weighed in prior seasons.  While that is somewhat useful at the start of the season for veteran-laden teams, for young and improving teams it's garbage.  The other models, like HR, Moneypuck and 538 do a much better job of predicting based on what's happening now.

The Athletic's playing cards are interesting, but also have some flaws in their methodology which seem to way undervalue players like Samuelsson. 

[Doohickie]

20 hours ago, JohnC said:

My instincts tell me that this race is going to the finish line. Being in a playoff position after this week doesn't mean that we will end up there. And not being in a playoff position doesn't mean that we won't get in.

The Sabres aren't winning every game from here on out.  In fact they aren't going to win all the games they should win.  But they're not going to win the division; they're just trying to make the wild card.  All the other teams they're jockeying for position with are flawed teams just like the Sabres.  The Sabres though are on their way up and I think that makes a difference. 

After years of glory Pittsburgh will be lucky to make the wild card.  The end of their dynasty is nigh and they know it.  They're not hungry, they're weary.  Same with the Caps.  The Panthers have been a huge disappointment this year after how well they played last year.  The Islanders are in between in my view.  Not sure if they're going up, coming down or just stuck in the rut they're in. 

But of all the teams in WC contention, The Vibes belong to the Sabres who no one gave any chances of making the playoffs this year.  They're here and they're rising.   Even though they're feeling the same pressure as the other WC contenders, they're basically playing with house money this year.  And they're finally getting that physical edge you need in the playoffs.  I think that edge will help them get to the playoffs.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Doohickie

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

The Sabres aren't winning every game from here on out.  In fact they aren't going to win all the games they should win.  But they're not going to win the division; they're just trying to make the wild card.  All the other teams they're jockeying for position with are flawed teams just like the Sabres.  The Sabres though are on their way up and I think that makes a difference. 

After years of glory Pittsburgh will be lucky to make the wild card.  The end of their dynasty is nigh and they know it.  They're not hungry, they're weary.  Same with the Caps.  The Panthers have been a huge disappointment this year after how well they played last year.  The Islanders are in between in my view.  Not sure if they're going up, coming down or just stuck in the rut they're in. 

But of all the teams in WC contention, The Vibes belong to the Sabres who no one gave any chances of making the playoffs this year.  They're here and they're rising.   Even though they're feeling the same pressure as the other WC contenders, they're basically playing with house money this year.  And they're finally getting that physical edge you need in the playoffs.  I think that edge will help them get to the playoffs.

I'll be succinct in my response. I simply don't know if the Sabres will make the playoffs. My sensation about this season, as it seems to like yours, is that regardless of the results it has been a fun and entertaining ride. 

[Wyldnwoody44]

Live look at SS over the next 20 games or so. 

[pi2000]

On 2/27/2023 at 10:46 AM, pi2000 said:

4 games into this 16 in 28 day stretch they've collected 6 out of 8 possible points (.750).   

The next 4 are CBJ, @BOS, TBL, EDM. 

 If they collect 3 of 8 points, that puts then at .562 points% for the first 8 games. 4 points would put them at .625.

Halfway through this 16 games in 28 day marathon they've collected 8 of a possible 16 points.

Their next 4 opponents are all currently playoff teams with an average .620 points percentage..  @NYI, DAL, NYR, @TOR

This stretch will make or break their playoff chances.   They need to scratch out at least 4 points, someway somehow. 

[Night Train]

The light is getting dimmer . It's down to 15 watts.

 

 

 

[Doohickie]

Before last night's loss to the Isles I was pretty confident that the Sabres would make the playoffs.  Now I'm not so sure.  It felt like this was the game they needed and they didn't get it.

If they don't start playing playoff hockey now, they won't make the playoffs.  Go the whip, Donny.

[Scottysabres]

They aren't making it. They don't have what it takes to win the "must win" games yet. And that's being played out game after game. Next year they should be in a decent position for a wild card spot, this year, they're done imho.

My only real concern is Dahlin, how no playoffs are affecting him thecway it has affected so many players that have come through Buffalo over these years.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Scottysabres

[Weave]

Unfortunately I think the hill has become too steep to summit.  Last night’s Islanders game was as close to a must win as you can get.  The pace they will need to win at given the games remaining seems fairly unrealistic given the season to date.

Will be interesting to see if the team effort sags as the acceptance of their fate sets in.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Weave

[Pimlach]

Yesterday was the first time I started getting doubts that they may not make it since the run began. 
 

I see how injuries have hurt them, good teams must overcome this level of injuries.  They have to find a way. 
 

Many of the fans here have already given up.  A few more gave up last night and this morning.  I think they still have a shot but they need a winning streak to turn this around.  They can still get hot again. 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Pimlach

[WhenWillItEnd66]

4 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Yesterday was the first time I started getting doubts that they may not make it since the run began. 
 

I see how injuries have hurt them, good teams must overcome this level of injuries.  They have to find a way. 
 

Many of the fans here have already given up.  A few more gave up last night and this morning.  I think they still have a shot but they need a winning streak to turn this around.  They can still get hot again. 

This team has zero depth. If we lose 1 dman we are screwed. Losing a top line player, we are screwed. Nobody is able to step up from the lower lines to help out with what we are missing. I will give some props to Quinn and Cozens has been a beast. Imagine if we put real scoring wingers on his wing!!! If we do not add to the talent, especially defensive dmen,  even what we have coming up will not help. Ok, again, i get it, very young team, they are most likely very tired and banged up, but so is everyone else. Playoff teams rise to the occasion, non playoff teams fall flat. We are not a playoff team.

[DarthEbriate]

RJ yells, "Not out!"

But this time there's a touch more desperation in his voice after the clearing attempt was intercepted at the blue line. The defenders are getting tired.

[PASabreFan]

Big picture last 10 games 5-5. Not nearly good enough.

[Weave]

4 minutes ago, Stormcloudmember66 said:

This team has zero depth. If we lose 1 dman we are screwed. Losing a top line player, we are screwed. Nobody is able to step up from the lower lines to help out with what we are missing. I will give some props to Quinn and Cozens has been a beast. Imagine if we put real scoring wingers on his wing!!! If we do not add to the talent, especially defensive dmen,  even what we have coming up will not help. Ok, again, i get it, very young team, they are most likely very tired and banged up, but so is everyone else. Playoff teams rise to the occasion, non playoff teams fall flat. We are not a playoff team.

We are missing our #1 RW, #2 D, #6 D, our #1 D is hobbled.  No team can be expected to beat nearly equal or better teams missing so much top of the order talent.  

[mjd1001]

My thoughts have only changed slightly. This team gets hot and cold, a 2-3 game win streak will get them right back into it, and if you can get back into it, you are never out. 

As of January when we started talking about this more, I thought they could make it but I put the odds at less than 50% then.  3 months later I'm still at the same place.  After the last 2 games is it less likely? Yes, but its still possible.  Its why they play the games and why we watch the games.

[Pimlach]

1 minute ago, Stormcloudmember66 said:

This team has zero depth. If we lose 1 dman we are screwed. Losing a top line player, we are screwed. Nobody is able to step up from the lower lines to help out with what we are missing. I will give some props to Quinn and Cozens has been a beast. Imagine if we put real scoring wingers on his wing!!! If we do not add to the talent, especially defensive dmen,  even what we have coming up will not help. Ok, again, i get it, very young team, they are most likely very tired and banged up, but so is everyone else. Playoff teams rise to the occasion, non playoff teams fall flat. We are not a playoff team.

Why are you piling all these cliches on me?   Go rain somewhere else.  Depth, talent, young team, step up, everyone has injuries, everyone else is blah blah, rise to the occasion, fall flat,  blah blah blah … nothing new here.  You forgot grit, that’s a common refrain that you missed.  
 

Vent to the board if you must, nothing you said here is original or relates to my post.  

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Still no.

The Islander game hurt a lot, but they are not out of it.

[Taro T]

Unfortunately, still expect them to finish with 91-92 points. But one nice hot streak gets them above that and into the dance.

C'mon boys, make it happen.

[TageMVP]

They don't have enough overtime losses

From what I recall over the past several years, teams that get in the final spot typically have a fair amount of overtime losses 

Buffalo and Ottawa are probably done. Each sit at only 4 OT losses and it's pretty late into the season. If I had to pick a single team to catch and pass either Pittsburgh or NYI, I'd pick Florida 

That said, a winning streak, even a small one, puts the Sabres back in it. If they're going to lose, it has to be in overtime. That Islanders goal is especially tough. The Sabres were being heavily outplayed but the loser point would have been huge 

Time for the Sabres to go on a 5 game winning streak. Now or never. But if they lose, they better make sure its in overtime 

 

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, TageMVP said:

They don't have enough overtime losses

From what I recall over the past several years, teams that get in the final spot typically have a fair amount of overtime losses 

Buffalo and Ottawa are probably done. Each sit at only 4 OT losses and it's pretty late into the season. If I had to pick a single team to catch and pass either Pittsburgh or NYI, I'd pick Florida 

That said, a winning streak, even a small one, puts the Sabres back in it. If they're going to lose, it has to be in overtime. That Islanders goal is especially tough. The Sabres were being heavily outplayed but the loser point would have been huge 

Time for the Sabres to go on a 5 game winning streak. Now or never. But if they lose, they better make sure its in overtime 

 

They don't have a lot of OT losses because they usually win in OT.  They are actually very good in OT.

Extra OT losses only help if they were the result of games that they otherwise would've lost in regulation.  Failing to win the games that they'd gotten to OT don't help at all.

[TageMVP]

Just now, Taro T said:

They don't have a lot of OT losses because they usually win in OT.  They are actually very good in OT.

Extra OT losses only help if they were the result of games that they otherwise would've lost in regulation.  Failing to win the games that they'd gotten to OT don't help at all.

That's my entire point. The game yesterday is a huge example 

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

RJ yells, "Not out!"

But this time there's a touch more desperation in his voice after the clearing attempt was intercepted at the blue line. The defenders are getting tired.

Thank you 

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

We are missing our #1 RW, #2 D, #6 D, our #1 D is hobbled.  No team can be expected to beat nearly equal or better teams missing so much top of the order talent.  

I think we’d be ok w/o the 1 RW and 2D for a while as that’s not extreme - if our 1D wasn’t hobbled. But that really seems to tip the scales b/c of his importance. He’s not THAT hobbled ie 80% Dahlin is still a really good player but, to your point, the margin is razor thin. 

We win 2 in a row, though, the outlook probably looks entirely different.

Its not *close* to over 

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

My thoughts have only changed slightly. This team gets hot and cold, a 2-3 game win streak will get them right back into it, and if you can get back into it, you are never out. 

As of January when we started talking about this more, I thought they could make it but I put the odds at less than 50% then.  3 months later I'm still at the same place.  After the last 2 games is it less likely? Yes, but its still possible.  Its why they play the games and why we watch the games.

Exactly. Still at the stage where a reasonably small or moderate sample size can significantly alter the math