The Olofsson and Mittelstadt Problem

[LGR4GM]

This is Eakin level bad. They are a trainwreck.

 

[LGR4GM]

They are -29% on offense compared to the teams +13%

They are +53% on defense... that's so bad it hurts my eyes. 

You want to + on offense and - on defense for these charts. 

[Hank]

My biggest complaint with olof has always been he doesn't forecheck. I think he's been much better at that this year. I think Mitts has been mostly solid. Isolated charts don't usually provide a complete picture. However, Olof would still be the first player I'd ship out of here for help on D. 

[K-9]

Have we reached the point where Mitts and VO are, to use KA’s word, “blocking” other prospects that need development time at this level?

[PerreaultForever]

Nope, they're not good. But the team's not good. 

Only players playing good or better than last year are Dahlin, Tuch, Cozens, Lybushkin and the goalies. Include Peterka if you want but he has made some rookie mistakes too. Vinnie and Zemgus are kind of same as always but hardly significant. Samuelsson and Jokiharju would be in the list but since they are injured I left them off. 

Everybody else is worse than last year and not good enough. 

and worse than that, there's no list of good depth players chomping at the bit to take a job. 

[Freeezo]

55 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Have we reached the point where Mitts and VO are, to use KA’s word, “blocking” other prospects that need development time at this level?

No bud they want some vets on the team. They signed VO for this reason 

[Huckleberry]

Important year for Casey and he is losing his spot to Cozens in my eyes.

[K-9]

18 minutes ago, Freeezo said:

No bud they want some vets on the team. They signed VO for this reason 

Well, when a couple of those vets are playing like total ass, it begs the question.

[pi2000]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

They are -29% on offense compared to the teams +13%

They are +53% on defense... that's so bad it hurts my eyes. 

You want to + on offense and - on defense for these charts. 

I thought plus/minus didn't... 

[nfreeman]

39 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Nope, they're not good. But the team's not good. 

Only players playing good or better than last year are Dahlin, Tuch, Cozens, Lybushkin and the goalies. Include Peterka if you want but he has made some rookie mistakes too. Vinnie and Zemgus are kind of same as always but hardly significant. Samuelsson and Jokiharju would be in the list but since they are injured I left them off. 

Everybody else is worse than last year and not good enough. 

and worse than that, there's no list of good depth players chomping at the bit to take a job. 

There is some cold truth in this but way too soon to draw any conclusions IMHO.  Also TT has played very well in the past few games and Skinner isn’t far behind him — I think they are going to start scoring.  I think VO is the biggest disappointment so far relative to last year, and he still has 4 goals in 7 games.

They need more from a few of Mitts, VO, KO, Quinn and Skinner.  
 

31 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Important year for Casey and he is losing his spot to Cozens in my eyes.

Yes and Savoie is coming in hot pretty soon for a top 3 center slot.  

[triumph_communes]

This was always known with these two players 

 

Its just exaggerated with thin defense 

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Nope, they're not good. But the team's not good. 

Only players playing good or better than last year are Dahlin, Tuch, Cozens, Lybushkin and the goalies. Include Peterka if you want but he has made some rookie mistakes too. Vinnie and Zemgus are kind of same as always but hardly significant. Samuelsson and Jokiharju would be in the list but since they are injured I left them off. 

Everybody else is worse than last year and not good enough. 

and worse than that, there's no list of good depth players chomping at the bit to take a job. 

My only dispute is the second sentence.  I agree with the rest for now.  But I think this could turn around with 23 and 10 back and some time to get things clicking. 

[Pimlach]

3 hours ago, K-9 said:

Have we reached the point where Mitts and VO are, to use KA’s word, “blocking” other prospects that need development time at this level?

No, no yet.  Which prospects are being blocked?   Savoie had a look and went back to Juniors.  No one in Rochester is going to help right now.  No one in Europe is going to help right now. So far Quinn hasn’t been able to push a vet to the bench.  JJP is doing ok.  The prospects are all in their correct places   

Edited October 29, 2022 by Pimlach

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

There is some cold truth in this but way too soon to draw any conclusions IMHO.  Also TT has played very well in the past few games and Skinner isn’t far behind him — I think they are going to start scoring.  I think VO is the biggest disappointment so far relative to last year, and he still has 4 goals in 7 games.

They need more from a few of Mitts, VO, KO, Quinn and Skinner.  
 

Yes and Savoie is coming in hot pretty soon for a top 3 center slot.  

Absolutely too early for conclusions. It's an of the moment observation. Everything could change next game. or not. We shall see. 

I have high hopes for Savoie. About 4 years from now I wouldn't be shocked if he was our top line center. but also, too soon to say. 

[Radar]

For whatever reason I've never looked at VO as an on going core piece. Great shot when open but that's ok for power plays but otherwise he's just ok. Not top six.

[Buffalonill]

Casey was  messed up when they gifted him a free roster spot to start his career. 

I believe he needs a change of  Scenery

Edited October 29, 2022 by Buffalonill

[Huckleberry]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

Casey was missed up when they gifted him a free roster spot to start his career. 

I believe he needs a change of  Scenery

package him for horvath if vancouver wants to retool.

[Buffalonill]

35 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

package him for horvath if vancouver wants to retool.

Lots of fans in Vancouver hate Horvat because hes one of those hard ass captains like drury .

I think he would fit nicely with this group imo 

Edited October 29, 2022 by Buffalonill

[Brawndo]

VO and Mitts should be the one of the two scratched forwards on a nightly basis. 

The difference between having VO with Cozens and Peterka compared to Vinnie being with them is quite eye opening.

Fortunately the front office recognized this and went short term deals for both. 

[Broken Ankles]

10 hours ago, pi2000 said:

I thought plus/minus didn't... 

[LTS]

10 hours ago, nfreeman said:

There is some cold truth in this but way too soon to draw any conclusions IMHO.  Also TT has played very well in the past few games and Skinner isn’t far behind him — I think they are going to start scoring.  I think VO is the biggest disappointment so far relative to last year, and he still has 4 goals in 7 games.

They need more from a few of Mitts, VO, KO, Quinn and Skinner.  
 

Yes and Savoie is coming in hot pretty soon for a top 3 center slot.  

Aren't two of those ENG?  Olofsson and Mitts are both filling the roster right now until there's a replacement.  But it wouldn't take much to go get a replacement if the Sabres wanted it.  Of course they don't right now, but I don't see either of them being around hear past their current contracts.

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

package him for horvath if vancouver wants to retool.

  This guy? 🙂

[msw2112]

The team played hard against Montreal, but spent way too much time running around in their own end.  Power is a talented kid, but still a rookie, and they miss Jokihariu and Samuelsson.  They have a lot of youth and develoment must continue, but the goaltending seems better this year and they have a winning record so far, so I'm not too concerned.  Looking for a good effort tonight vs. the Blackhawks.  I don't live in Buffalo anymore, but am in town this weekend for the Bills game and am going to see the Sabres tonight for the first time in years.  I'm choosing to be optimistic about what I'll see on the ice tonight.

As to Mitts and VO specifically, I have not watched that closely, but VO should be back in his "spot" on the power play.  Why fix something that wasn't broken?  That's been his calling card for his entire career, why not use it?  And Mitts seems to be generating several breakaway type chances, but that doesn't speak to his overall game.  I'll watch more closely tonight.

[Archie Lee]

Mitts and Olofsson have not been good, but they have been maybe just the worst or close to the worst on a team that is fortunate to be 4-3.  I'm not more worried about these two players that I am about the team in its entirety. 

To this point the team is out performing their underlying #'s.  I'm no analytics expert but I understand that if a player has a PDO over 102 it means that the team is likely outproducing their actual performance when that player is on the ice.  A PDO below 98 means the opposite. The Sabres line-up is full of players who currently have a PDO over 102.  The only player below 98 right now is Bryson; that actually fits the eye-test to me as I think Bryson more than others has had poor defensive zone puck-luck thus far.

The most disturbing stat for me is that Comrie has a goals against average (GAA) of 3.41 and that is a 1/2 goal better than the expected GAA of 3.95. 

We have a lot of guys who need to be better, not just Mittelstadt and Olofsson. 

 

Edited October 29, 2022 by Archie Lee

[mjd1001]

14 hours ago, Hank said:

My biggest complaint with olof has always been he doesn't forecheck. I think he's been much better at that this year. I think Mitts has been mostly solid. Isolated charts don't usually provide a complete picture. However, Olof would still be the first player I'd ship out of here for help on D. 

I agree that those charts only tell so much of the story.

As far as scoring, with Olofsson you have to just take he is going to be one of the streakiest scorers you have ever seen. His skillset and history point to that.

As far as their gameplay, Olofsson has been invisible defensively from what I have seen, and to me for HIM that is a good thing.  Mitts has been on the ice for some goals against, but when I looked at the replay of those goals, he has NOT been the one out of position, it is often been his linemates making the mistake, not him.

Scoring and points are one side of the equation for sure with both of them. But in terms of effort and forechecking and D-zone positioning, both of them are a fraction of the problem that Krebs has been all year, and to a lesser extent Cozens (due to being overly agressive), Peterka (losing battles on the boards) and even KO and Tuch (out of position) have been.

[kas23]

I’m all for shipping out either Mitts or Oloffson. We have too many prospects and not enough room. So, it comes down to who has the highest trade value. Known NHL commodities or prospects with unknown ceilings. We’ve seen Oloffson’s ceiling, not quite sure where Mitt’s is, but it can’t be too much higher. I don’t think either has high enough trade value and will likely just return another player who “needs a change of scenery”. We do have some very valuable prospects, but most view them as “untouchable”. 

13 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Important year for Casey and he is losing his spot to Cozens in my eyes.

This is an extremely important year for Mitts. The problem is if he continues at his current level, his trade value plummets after the season.