The Olofsson and Mittelstadt Problem

[JohnC]

14 hours ago, K-9 said:

Why? Because Olofsson the one trick pony performed his one trick and Mitts got a lucky bounce on the faceoff to set it up? Need a lot more out of them than that. 

Mitts was the player in front of the goalie when Olofsson got off his game winner. I thought he played a solid game last night. I like Cozens a lot. I thought Mitts was the better player against Chicago. 

[Flashsabre]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

From the Athletic discussing VO and Mitts: https://theathletic.com/3743526/2022/10/30/sabres-kyle-okposo-tage-thompson/

“Olofsson’s night was headlined by his pair of power-play goals, but his line was also effective at five-on-five. According to Natural Stat Trick, Olofsson, Casey Mittelstadt and Jack Quinn accounted for 16 shot attempts and only one against in 8:04 of five-on-five ice time. They also had 98 percent of the five-on-five expected goals while they were on the ice. That’s an absurd evening of hockey from that group.”

 

They are imperfect players but useful to the team. Is Mitts the leading faceoff guy on the team?

Who are they  replacing these two with who are going to produce more?

One guy Inwould love to see them look at if Vancouver are making changes is Horvat. One of the best faceoff guys in the league and a centre that goes to the net. 6 goals on the year. They don’t know if they can extend him after the Miller deal and there are some issues in that room so Horvat might be a guy that becomes available.

Edit: Friedman reports that Horvat is available.  Colour Me Interested.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Flashsabre

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

From the Athletic discussing VO and Mitts: https://theathletic.com/3743526/2022/10/30/sabres-kyle-okposo-tage-thompson/

“Olofsson’s night was headlined by his pair of power-play goals, but his line was also effective at five-on-five. According to Natural Stat Trick, Olofsson, Casey Mittelstadt and Jack Quinn accounted for 16 shot attempts and only one against in 8:04 of five-on-five ice time. They also had 98 percent of the five-on-five expected goals while they were on the ice. That’s an absurd evening of hockey from that group.”

 

Those 2 and Quinn too each had their best game of the season, but it still wasn't good enough for some.

That also was the one line that didn't get changed to try to find offense last night.

[GASabresIUFAN]

46 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Those 2 and Quinn too each had their best game of the season, but it still wasn't good enough for some.

That also was the one line that didn't get changed to try to find offense last night.

DG also uses Mitts on both special teams.  I guess DG had more faith in them than some people here. 

[K-9]

3 hours ago, JohnC said:

Mitts was the player in front of the goalie when Olofsson got off his game winner. I thought he played a solid game last night. I like Cozens a lot. I thought Mitts was the better player against Chicago. 

No need to bring Cozens into the conversation. Mitts and VO combined do not bring what Cozens does on a night in, night out basis. 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

No need to bring Cozens into the conversation. Mitts and VO combined do not bring what Cozens does on a night in, night out basis. 

I disagree.

Cozens is good and he can turn into a very great player.  But there are games where he simply is not great all the time.  Don't confuse 'full speed effort' with a good game.  I posted a couple games ago that a goal allowed by the Sabres was primarily because of Cozens chasing the puck too hard instead of playing his position.  Another play I brought up was a Risto-style play where he actually went to make a hit that wasn't needed and took himself out of the play leading to a great breakout.  Do I think he is a bad player? No not at all, but there are certainly games where Mitts and VO are more valuable on a game by game basis than Cozens is.

VO doesn't give the full speed ahead/physical style of play and at times you don't notice him. But he has 6 goals in 8 games. 2 PP goals (when the Sabres PP was struggling), 2 even strength, 2 empty net (one of which is important to seal the win) and an over time winner.  MORE IMPORTANTLY, I have watched replays of just about every single goal the Sabres allowed (with the exception of one last night) and he was not out of position or even partially responsible for any of them. Basically, he isn't hurting them in his own zone.  Lead the team in goals, have some game winners, drive the PP production, and dont' hurt your team in your own zone...and I'd say at this point in the season he is one of your most valuable players so far.

Edited October 30, 2022 by mjd1001

[PerreaultForever]

Cozens is carrying his line. Problem is he doesn't have top notch wingers to play with. Peterka is an up and comer and will get there and I see them developing good chemistry in time, but at the moment it's up and down. Cozens is showing me everything he needs to be great with a good line. Good puck possession even in traffic, smart decisions, toughness and grit, competitive attitude. Still needs to improve on his finish but with better wingers he'd look even better. I am not worried about him (or Peterka) at all. 

Arguably Mitts needs better wingers too, but he's soft and always will be soft imo and once Savoie is ready he's going to be gone or on the margins of this team. 

What we really need is somebody who can win a damn face off . 

[K-9]

3 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I disagree.

Cozens is good and he can turn into a very great player.  But there are games where he simply is not great all the time.  Don't confuse 'full speed effort' with a good game.  I posted a couple games ago that a goal allowed by the Sabres was primarily because of Cozens chasing the puck too hard instead of playing his position.  Another play I brought up was a Risto-style play where he actually went to make a hit that wasn't needed and took himself out of the play leading to a great breakout.  Do I think he is a bad player? No not at all, but there are certainly games where Mitts and VO are more valuable on a game by game basis than Cozens is.

Wake me when Mitts and VO bring the 200 foot, 5x5 game on a consistent basis like Cozens does night in and night out. For every occasional gaffe by Cozens, we can cite multiple poor plays by Mitts and VO. 

But again, there was no need to drag Cozens into this particular discussion. He’s a superior 5x5 player on a game by game basis, while Mitts and VO leave a bit to be desired which is what the OP in the thread pointed out. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

No need to bring Cozens into the conversation. Mitts and VO combined do not bring what Cozens does on a night in, night out basis. 

I was referring to this game. In this particular game Mitts was more of a factor than Cozens. 

[K-9]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

I was referring to this game. In this particular game Mitts was more of a factor than Cozens. 

That’s one. Yay, Mitts! 

[mjd1001]

12 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Wake me when Mitts and VO bring the 200 foot, 5x5 game on a consistent basis like Cozens does night in and night out. For every occasional gaffe by Cozens, we can cite multiple poor plays by Mitts and VO. 

But again, there was no need to drag Cozens into this particular discussion. He’s a superior 5x5 player on a game by game basis, while Mitts and VO leave a bit to be desired which is what the OP in the thread pointed out. 

Please, cite me the multiple poor plays by VO so far this year that cost the Sabres....I'll be waiting.  I CAN cite you a few plays by Cozens where it cost the Sabres at least one goal and a few great scoring chances.   Just because you WANT to beleive that Cozens is playing better, and he might have the POTENTIAL to be a better 2 way player....it doesn't make it true so far this year.

[K-9]

Just now, mjd1001 said:

Please, cite me the multiple poor plays by VO so far this year that cost the Sabres....I'll be waiting.  I CAN cite you a few plays by Cozens where it cost the Sabres at least one goal and a few great scoring chances.   Just because you WANT to beleive that Cozens is playing better, and he might have the POTENTIAL to be a better 2 way player....it doesn't make it true so far this year.

Look at the 5x5 analytics cited in the OP. I want Mitts and VO to play better. Cozens has nothing to do with it. Dragging him into the discussion about Mitts and VO and their poor 5x5 play is a specious argument imo. He’s a superior 5x5 player and the analytics bear that out in striking terms. Let me know when that’s not the case. I’ll be waiting as well. 

[DarthEbriate]

28 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

What we really need is somebody who can win a damn face off . 

Then Mitts is your man. Sabres with more than 20 faceoffs taken thus far this season:

Mitts 63-57 - 52.5%
Girgs 24-25 - 49%
Cozens 54-61 - 47.4%
Tage 42-52 - 44.7%

[Thorny]

9 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

VO on pace for a 60 goal season! 

But apparently we have 12 forwards better loll

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Look at the 5x5 analytics cited in the OP. I want Mitts and VO to play better. Cozens has nothing to do with it. Dragging him into the discussion about Mitts and VO and their poor 5x5 play is a specious argument imo. He’s a superior 5x5 player and the analytics bear that out in striking terms. Let me know when that’s not the case. I’ll be waiting as well. 

I won't go into the details because I dont' know them, but I saw someone posted VO's analytics and it was brought up by many people that only shows part of the picture.  The truth still remains....Cozens has made SOME mistakes, again as I cited, that Cost the sabres at least one goal and a few opportunities. VO hasn't. As far as your analytics in the offensive zone...they don't mean a thing when his 6 goals trump Cozens 2 (to this point). 

The analytics you site MAY have an impact on future production, but as of this moment, current production AND mistakes causing goals...VO is WAY ahead of Coznes.  Truth. you may not like it, but to this point it is simply true.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

40 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But apparently we have 12 forwards better loll

Apparently.  One other note.  DG is starting Mitts nearly 60% of the time in the defensive zone.  Skinner, Tnt, VO, Quinn and Krebs are the only Sabres forwards over 50% in Ozone starts.  

That stat implies to me that we are spending way to much time in our own zone.  

[mjd1001]

Just now, mjd1001 said:

I won't go into the details because I dont' know them, but I saw someone posted VO's analytics and it was brought up by many people that only shows part of the picture.  The truth still remains....Cozens has made SOME mistakes, again as I cited, that Cost the sabres at least one goal and a few opportunities. VO hasn't. As far as your analytics in the offensive zone...they don't mean a thing when his 6 goals trump Cozens 2 (to this point). 

You site analytics that show 2 weeks of data for this year.  That appears to be the only argument you have.  I am not agains analytics at all for evaluating players potential or forcasting the future, but it means zero for real production and events that have happened.

The analytics you site MAY have an impact on future production, but as of this moment, current production AND mistakes causing goals...VO is WAY ahead of Coznes.  Truth. you may not like it, but to this point it is simply true.

 

 

[SwampD]

I don’t think there is a problem. At 27, VO is who he is. His disappears often and then scores a ***** ton of goals.

I think we will see a change in Mitts by the end of the year. His brain is moving faster than his hands (or vice versa, not sure which it is) and he needs to just slow the game down, which will happen as he matures. I think it might have happened already if he had not missed so much of last season. He’s only 23 still, jebus.

[K-9]

17 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I won't go into the details because I dont' know them, but I saw someone posted VO's analytics and it was brought up by many people that only shows part of the picture.  The truth still remains....Cozens has made SOME mistakes, again as I cited, that Cost the sabres at least one goal and a few opportunities. VO hasn't. As far as your analytics in the offensive zone...they don't mean a thing when his 6 goals trump Cozens 2 (to this point). 

The analytics you site MAY have an impact on future production, but as of this moment, current production AND mistakes causing goals...VO is WAY ahead of Coznes.  Truth. you may not like it, but to this point it is simply true.

 

Let’s just root for everybody to play better. How’s that? 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Then Mitts is your man. Sabres with more than 20 faceoffs taken thus far this season:

Mitts 63-57 - 52.5%
Girgs 24-25 - 49%
Cozens 54-61 - 47.4%
Tage 42-52 - 44.7%

I didn't look up the stats but I did notice Mitts was doing better and Tage was terrible. 

idk, are there any stats on big tall men and draws? I have to wonder if he has trouble getting lower and getting the right leverage in close. Might be why they've tried Skinner a bit. 

As a team however we aren't very good on them and tend to lose big ones often. A good PP (for example) needs a good face off man so you don't waste that valuable early time and can have offensive zone control right away. Or maybe you don't NEED it, but it definitely helps. 

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

I didn't look up the stats but I did notice Mitts was doing better and Tage was terrible. 

idk, are there any stats on big tall men and draws? I have to wonder if he has trouble getting lower and getting the right leverage in close. Might be why they've tried Skinner a bit. 

As a team however we aren't very good on them and tend to lose big ones often. A good PP (for example) needs a good face off man so you don't waste that valuable early time and can have offensive zone control right away. Or maybe you don't NEED it, but it definitely helps. 

With Tage we also have to remember he's played one season as a center (and Mitts takes extra-attacker draws for him, or did at the end of last season). He'll improve as he ages. A comparable would be Brian Boyle (6-6). Boyle started his career junky in the FO dot for 3 (partial-to-full seasons), then got over 50% and stayed there the rest of his career. Final career 50.1%. If Tage can win half, that's fine.

I'm guessing that's why Mitts is on PP1 instead of VO. I'd also consider sending Krebs down as the #1C in Rochester taking every draw imaginable if he's not going to get the ice-time in Buffalo. My preseason pick of leading FO % guy was Sheahan as he's done well in his career, but as of waivers today it looks like that pick is out the window.

[Digger]

At the end of the day, we can't win games without scoring.  I don't care if VO scores 5on5 vs PP.  We do need at least 1 goal to win any game.  If you sit him, who's bringing the goal(s)?  I do recall that he had great chemistry with Asplund for a while last season (if 5on5 is critical). 

With Mittelstadt, he's had a lot of close "almost" goals this season.  I suspect that they will start going in for him soon (same as they did for Tage recently).

What we need is a healthy team.

[triumph_communes]

How do we get Horvat? Vancouver wants defense 

[sweetlou]

14 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

How do we get Horvat? Vancouver wants defense 

They did just pick up Bear so that may hold them over for month or so.

How about Krebs, Rosen,  Laaksonen, and a Vegas 2nd rd pick for Bo and Myers. 

[Crusader1969]

2 hours ago, sweetlou said:

They did just pick up Bear so that may hold them over for month or so.

How about Krebs, Rosen,  Laaksonen, and a Vegas 2nd rd pick for Bo and Myers. 

As long as you realize Horvat is a UFA at the end of the season.  Why give up all that when you can get him for free in the off season?  
 

 For any team to take Myers off their hands , they should be the one sweetening the deal not the Sabres. 

Vancouver would be doing cart wheels if you offered them that deal   In a year you could be left with nothing but another $6 plus million owed to Myers  after giving away 2 first rounders   

huge over-payment.  Crazy talk