Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #53 Jeff Skinner

[dudacek]

“I think you gotta let Skinner be Skinner.  He's at his best when he is flying down the ice with the puck on his stick, circling around the net looking for a shot or a swat, and getting on the other teams nerves.  So I'm looking to draw up plays that get him the first pass out of the d-zone, and put him on a line with a playmaker and someone with speed and finish that he can look to pass to on the rush.“ @shaaaught!, Sabrespace

Not clear whether @SHAAAUGHT!!! is actually Don Granato, but what is clear is this is what Granato basically did with his $9 million 7-goal scorer last year, and it resulted in a return to form from Skinner's dismal performances in the previous two seasons under Ralph Krueger.

Skinner doubled his shooting percentage for the previous season’s career low, but his 12.6 wasn’t too far off his career 10.9 average. More significantly, his shots taken also doubled, back in line with his totals in the 5 years previous to Krueger. His ES possession numbers rebounded to 3rd among team regulars. And he resumed his accustomed post in the top 20 of NHL even-strength goal scorers.

It wasn’t all smooth — Skinner had just 3 points in October and only 2 in December — but his consistency improved along with the team’s post-Christmas and his 63 points matched his career high.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116085

Jeff Skinner has never followed up a 30-goal season with more than 24. He’s never followed up 60+ points with more than 49.

He has also never played back-to-back seasons with a centre he complemented as well as Tage Thompson or with a coach who has appeared to trust him as much as Granato.

He enters the season firmly ensconced on the Sabres top line, but with a track record of inconsistencies and multiple members of the new core nipping at his heels.

What do you expect from Jeff Skinner?

(Last year’s takes here, congrats to @pi2000 and @Sabres Fan in NS as the only Spacers to correctly predict Skinner’s return to form):

 

[French Collection]

 I expect him to pot 25 goals.

I like him with TT, cleaning up rebounds and buzzing around the other team’s net while TT plays keep away. He is not a pest of Marchand’s style but he draws attention, penalties and keeps opponents off balance.

I think his PP time will drop a bit to let the young guns get their feet wet. There are more options on PP with shooters like TT, VO, Quinn and KO. Playmakers like Mitts, and Krebs. Big bodies like Tuch and Cozens. There is a place for him on one of the units but DG has more options.

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Jeff Skinner will be fine.

Another great season on Tage's wing.

[DarthEbriate]

Is he on Tage's wing again? 30+ because the 2nd line will prevent the opposing team from going full-bore against jump the top trio. Is he on Cozens' wing? 20 goals.

Is he buried with Girgs and Sheahan, Krueger-style? Not going to happen. 

It's going to be an endless party in the USA this winter.

[Taro T]

25-32 goals.  50-55 points.  He'll be glued to Thompson's wing.  He'll be better in the D-zone than we expect, but still won't be good there.

[Weave]

I boted #2 but I really expect between 25-30 is right.

[Curt]

Your options conspicuously omit the range, but I’d expect something in the 25-30 goal, 50-60 point range.

I think there is a slightly better chance that he falls just short of those numbers than there is that he exceeds them, so I went with option #2.

[Zamboni]

He’ll most likely never live up to his contract in most fans eyes. Nothing will be good enough if it falls under 82 points a season. But if you consider eveything except what he was gifted thru JB, he’ll be a solid contributor (baring injury) with a 55-65 point season. 

[nfreeman]

Skinner just turned 30.  He matched his career high last year with 63 pts (interestingly, he's had exactly 63 pts 4 times), with 33-30-63. 

As @dudacek points out, he didn't really get going until a couple of months into the season.  Once he and TT got comfortable, and once Tuch joined them -- they were a very dangerous top line with a ton of size, speed, range and forechecking.  They created multiple good chances seemingly every shift.  And Skinner did most of his damage at 5-on-5.

I think he's reborn under DM, like a phoenix rising from Arizona.  He's still got his legs, and will have them for quite a while (which is good, because the Sabres are paying through the nose for him for a while), and DM helped him get his mojo back.  He plays with passion.  And he has really good linemates and a good offensive system, with good offensive support coming from the D.

41-32-73.

[dudacek]

You want to see what happened to Jeff Skinner, go back and watch the tape of all Tage Thompson’s goals last year.

I’d say at least a half-dozen of them were set up by Reinhart-esque “how did he see that?” Skinner passes.

It’s something I have never seen Skinner do over his 3 previous seasons in Buffalo.

Its the idea that Jeff has realized he can have value beyond his goals that makes me think he could break his maddening pattern of year-to-year inconsistency.

I’ve never been a Skinner fan. I was a fan last year because it was the first time I ever felt he was as interested in the success of the other 5 guys on the ice as much as his own.

Donnie did a ton of good things last year, but none were better than reviving Skinner.

[bob_sauve28]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

You want to see what happened to Jeff Skinner, go back and watch the tape of all Tage Thompson’s goals last year.

I’d say at least a half-dozen of them were set up by Reinhart-esque “how did he see that?” Skinner passes.

It’s something I have never seen Skinner do over his 3 previous seasons in Buffalo.

Its the idea that Jeff has realized he can have value beyond his goals that makes me think he could break his maddening pattern of year-to-year inconsistency.

I’ve never been a Skinner fan. I was a fan last year because it was the first time I ever felt he was as interested in the success of the other 5 guys on the ice as much as his own.

Donnie did a ton of good things last year, but none were better than reviving Skinner.

Yes. Was happy to see that. 

[LGR4GM]

Skinner, like the rest of the team isn't learning Granato's system while unlearning Kreuger's to start the year. Just something to think about. 

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

23 hours ago, dudacek said:

“I think you gotta let Skinner be Skinner.  He's at his best when he is flying down the ice with the puck on his stick, circling around the net looking for a shot or a swat, and getting on the other teams nerves.  So I'm looking to draw up plays that get him the first pass out of the d-zone, and put him on a line with a playmaker and someone with speed and finish that he can look to pass to on the rush.“ @shaaaught!, Sabrespace

Not clear whether @SHAAAUGHT!!! is actually Don Granato, but what is clear is this is what Granato basically did with his $9 million 7-goal scorer last year, and it resulted in a return to form from Skinner's dismal performances in the previous two seasons under Ralph Krueger.

Skinner doubled his shooting percentage for the previous season’s career low, but his 12.6 wasn’t too far off his career 10.9 average. More significantly, his shots taken also doubled, back in line with his totals in the 5 years previous to Krueger. His ES possession numbers rebounded to 3rd among team regulars. And he resumed his accustomed post in the top 20 of NHL even-strength goal scorers.

It wasn’t all smooth — Skinner had just 3 points in October and only 2 in December — but his consistency improved along with the team’s post-Christmas and his 63 points matched his career high.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116085

Jeff Skinner has never followed up a 30-goal season with more than 24. He’s never followed up 60+ points with more than 49.

He has also never played back-to-back seasons with a centre he complemented as well as Tage Thompson or with a coach who has appeared to trust him as much as Granato.

He enters the season firmly ensconced on the Sabres top line, but with a track record of inconsistencies and multiple members of the new core nipping at his heels.

What do you expect from Jeff Skinner?

(Last year’s takes here, congrats to @pi2000 and @Sabres Fan in NS as the only Spacers to correctly predict Skinner’s return to form)

I’m a lot of things, but Don Granato I am not… 😁

As I mentioned previously, Skinners success will likely depend on proper usage and playing with capable line mates.  I don’t see Granato breaking up the Skinner/TT combo, unless Casey’s play (good or bad) necessitates mixing up the lines.  My prediction is that Skinner nets over 31 goals playing with Tage again, or over 25 playing with Casey.  In either case I see him duplicating, or coming very close to duplicating, last year’s success.  

[JohnC]

As others have pointed out Skinner has rounded out his game. He is never going to be a defensive stalworth but what you did see from him under DG is effort on the defensive end. There is no question that scoring goals is where he is mostly going to be measured but his passing ability has been elevated as a part of his game. It may be odd to say when discussing Skinner but there were times when I thought he was too willing to pass the puck when he should have shot it. Skinner also adds some needed feistiness to this roster. There aren't many players who chirp as well as he does. On this team he is a genuine first line player. Coaching matters!

[Brawndo]

14 hours ago, dudacek said:

You want to see what happened to Jeff Skinner, go back and watch the tape of all Tage Thompson’s goals last year.

I’d say at least a half-dozen of them were set up by Reinhart-esque “how did he see that?” Skinner passes.

It’s something I have never seen Skinner do over his 3 previous seasons in Buffalo.

Its the idea that Jeff has realized he can have value beyond his goals that makes me think he could break his maddening pattern of year-to-year inconsistency.

I’ve never been a Skinner fan. I was a fan last year because it was the first time I ever felt he was as interested in the success of the other 5 guys on the ice as much as his own.

Donnie did a ton of good things last year, but none were better than reviving Skinner.

Like this?

 

 

[Pimlach]

I have him with another 30 goal season.  This assumes he plays on the top line and stays healthy. 

I thought his overall game under Granato was better than I have ever seen from him.  

He is nuisance to play against when he is going well.   We need that to continue. 

[Thorny]

On 9/11/2022 at 11:01 AM, dudacek said:

“I think you gotta let Skinner be Skinner.  He's at his best when he is flying down the ice with the puck on his stick, circling around the net looking for a shot or a swat, and getting on the other teams nerves.  So I'm looking to draw up plays that get him the first pass out of the d-zone, and put him on a line with a playmaker and someone with speed and finish that he can look to pass to on the rush.“ @shaaaught!, Sabrespace

Not clear whether @SHAAAUGHT!!! is actually Don Granato, but what is clear is this is what Granato basically did with his $9 million 7-goal scorer last year, and it resulted in a return to form from Skinner's dismal performances in the previous two seasons under Ralph Krueger.

Skinner doubled his shooting percentage for the previous season’s career low, but his 12.6 wasn’t too far off his career 10.9 average. More significantly, his shots taken also doubled, back in line with his totals in the 5 years previous to Krueger. His ES possession numbers rebounded to 3rd among team regulars. And he resumed his accustomed post in the top 20 of NHL even-strength goal scorers.

It wasn’t all smooth — Skinner had just 3 points in October and only 2 in December — but his consistency improved along with the team’s post-Christmas and his 63 points matched his career high.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116085

Jeff Skinner has never followed up a 30-goal season with more than 24. He’s never followed up 60+ points with more than 49.

He has also never played back-to-back seasons with a centre he complemented as well as Tage Thompson or with a coach who has appeared to trust him as much as Granato.

He enters the season firmly ensconced on the Sabres top line, but with a track record of inconsistencies and multiple members of the new core nipping at his heels.

What do you expect from Jeff Skinner?

(Last year’s takes here, congrats to @pi2000 and @Sabres Fan in NS as the only Spacers to correctly predict Skinner’s return to form):

 

The only? I know I’m not in that thread but surely you remember my belaboured discussions with you on Skinny!  

[dudacek]

58 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The only? I know I’m not in that thread but surely you remember my belaboured discussions with you on Skinny!  

Definitely. Was just referring to the poll in last year's thread.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I had him at 18g 13a last year.  I’m thrilled to have been so low on my projection.  I’m hoping I’m low again this season with a 27g 25a season.

[RochesterExpat]

I made a bet with a friend prior to the start of last season that Jeff Skinner would score at least 25 goals and total 50 points or more. I won $430 off of it (the value of the bet was on the value of two tickets for the Stars final home game).

I think depth down the lineup will help relieve pressure on the first line and we'll see Skinner and TT feed off each other while Tuch plays his role as a play-driving power forward. I'd be willing to bet a healthy Skinner breaks 30 goals again and tops his career-high of 63 points, but I'd like a much cheaper bet that isn't essentially dependent on another bet that the Stars will suck.

[Norcal]

I expect Skinny to Skin that Smokewagon and get to work, scoring goals. 

I think he'll be especially pesty early and try to set the pace for the young guys.

 

 

[LGR4GM]

30 minutes ago, Norcal said:

I expect Skinny to Skin that Smokewagon and get to work, scoring goals. 

I think he'll be especially pesty early and try to set the pace for the young guys.

 

Is... is that a Tombstone reference I see?

[Norcal]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Is... is that a Tombstone reference I see?

Great movie

[JustOneParade]

Outstanding movie. Should be the rally cry of the Sabres' season .... 'You tell 'em I'm comin'. And hell is coming with me!'.