What do you expect from: #71 Victor Olofsson?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I am convinced he is playing hurt, or at least was up until now.

It's a tough year to judge.

If he finishes this season well I would offer him a 2 year deal at $4.5, maybe 3 at $4.

Edited February 18, 2022 by The Ghost of Doohickie
more goodly ...

[Hawerchuk]

Keep, but offer a bridge deal. Nothing long term. Even 4 years is too long. Hope he rediscovers his shot because right now, he's been mostly useless out there.

[Thorny]

8 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I was referring to last season and this season.  His 13 goals in 56 games last season and 7 goals in 40 games this season isn't going to get him a fat UFA contract unless he has a major rebound season next year.

 

Me too. 

Goals! 

VO is perceived to be a goal scorer so only goals count. I keep forgetting 

- - - 

Regardless, as you can see from my post I didn’t contend against your statement he wouldn’t get a “fat UFA contract”, merely the “(very slightly above) JAG” designation. 

Which wouldn’t be accurate regardless. Guys that pace for 40/50 points aren’t close to “just another guy”. Just another guy is a guy you can replace with a waiver wire claim 

We may just have a different definition of JAG, I dunno

Edited February 18, 2022 by Thorny

[Weave]

What does VOs metrics look like?  I seem to recall his game suggested he was playing well even though he seems to have lost his shot.

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Goals! 

VO is perceived to be a goal scorer so only goals count. I keep forgetting 

- - - 

Regardless, as you can see from my post I didn’t contend against your statement he wouldn’t get a “fat UFA contract”, merely the “(very slightly above) JAG” designation. 

Which wouldn’t be accurate regardless. Guys that pace for 40/50 points aren’t close to “just another guy”. Just another guy is a guy you can replace with a waiver wire claim 

We may just have a different definition of JAG, I dunno

Yes, goals.  The things that are counted in determining wins.  The things that are twice as precious as assists on scoring plays.  The things that Gretzky and the Rocket and Bossy and Ovechkin produced.

Assists matter, as do saves and blocked shots and plenty of other things.  Goals matter more — a lot more.

Put another way:  if VO finishes this year and next year with 11 or 12 goals per year, would you expect him to be paid materially more than JAG level?

[Brawndo]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

What does VOs metrics look like?  I seem to recall his game suggested he was playing well even though he seems to have lost his shot.

This is this season 

This is the past three seasons 

[woods-racer]

That's not a whole lot of good stuff on the north side of the break even line.

[sabresparaavida]

1 hour ago, woods-racer said:

That's not a whole lot of good stuff on the north side of the break even line.

No, but at least the career averages point to having an elite shot (based on the difference between gar and xgar) and he does show to be useful on the PP. he’s been playing a top 6 role for his career, but seems more suited for a 3rd scoring line with significant PP time. Overall a useful player, probably cast into a slightly too great a role.

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Yes, goals.  The things that are counted in determining wins.  The things that are twice as precious as assists on scoring plays.  The things that Gretzky and the Rocket and Bossy and Ovechkin produced.

Assists matter, as do saves and blocked shots and plenty of other things.  Goals matter more — a lot more.

Put another way:  if VO finishes this year and next year with 11 or 12 goals per year, would you expect him to be paid materially more than JAG level?

Ya man. Cause the other things factor in too. As much as you think only sick snipezz have relevance to what players get paid 

He’s not JAG, he’s not close to JAG. The moment you compared him to JAG you torpedoed your own argument. JAGs make 750k

Do you think he’s worth less than, say, 1.5 mil? Cause that’s substantially more as it’s double lol. And we know he’s worth more than 1.5 mil. 

He’s pacing for 14 goals and 47 points this year. Which would be good for 6th on the Colorado Avalanche the last full season played.

Edited February 19, 2022 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya man. Cause the other things factor in too. 

As much as you think only sick snipezz matter 

He’s not JAG, he’s not close to JAG. The moment you compared him to JAG you torpedoed your own argument. JAGs make 750k

Do you think he’s worth less than, say, 1.5 mil? Cause that’s substantially more as it’s double lol. And we know he’s worth more than 1.5 mil 

Well, Eakin makes $2.25MM and Zemgus makes $2.2MM.  I’d call both of them JAGs.

I guess it goes back to your definition of JAG, which is a point you made earlier.

I’ll ask again:  leaving aside the snark about other stats, and noting that I said explicitly that the other stuff does matter, albeit not nearly as much as goals do, what kind of deal do you think VO would get as a UFA if he scores 11 or 12 goals this year and next year?  Would he get more than Eakin?

[Thorny]

12 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, Eakin makes $2.25MM and Zemgus makes $2.2MM.  I’d call both of them JAGs.

I guess it goes back to your definition of JAG, which is a point you made earlier.

I’ll ask again:  leaving aside the snark about other stats, and noting that I said explicitly that the other stuff does matter, albeit not nearly as much as goals do, what kind of deal do you think VO would get as a UFA if he scores 11 or 12 goals this year and next year?  Would he get more than Eakin?

Yes! If he scores 40+ points of course he should/would. Olofsson is pacing for 47 points. Eakin is pacing for 19 points. 

We can talk about goals being worth more till the cows come home (Olofsson is pacing for 14 goals to Eakin’s 6 goal pace) but their production rates are not similar. Their goal production isn’t even similar 

 

Goals are worth more cause they are *hard to get.*. 14 goals is NOT a JAG pace and he’s slumping, at that. Having been hurt.

You are presenting a hypothetical without any variable other than “goals” filled in. Presenting that as if assists and points aren’t relevant to the answer shows you aren’t attributing close to enough value on those things. If you valued them, how could the question be answered by me without those things filled in? 

If 10-15 goals is accompanied by 25-30 assists: yes, yes - substantially more than Eakin 

Edited February 19, 2022 by Thorny

[steveoath]

On 2/17/2022 at 3:47 PM, Brawndo said:

I’m going to preface this with the fact I love Skinner on this team and that His resurgence this year has been sight to behold. I was one of the posters who argued for Him to be paid after His 40 Goal Season, as historically He had been one of the league best 5v5 goal scorers.  Watching Skinner-Tage-Tuch has been a positive, along with the young guys growth in an otherwise dismal season.

That being said, Skinner is tied with Minnesota’s Kaprizov for 4th on the list of the NHL for highest paid LWs in the league, 500k less than Ovi and Jaime Benn who are third.  Skinner ranks 24th in scoring amongst LWs this season, Jaime Benn is the only one with a higher AAV who is scoring at lower rate. 
 

As great as the Sabres Top Line has been playing, only Alex Tuch is on an 82 Game Pace for Elite Level Production with 92 points over a full season. Skinner and Tage are on pace for low 60’s.  Look at the teams that played last night on TNT in Florida, Carolina, Vegas and Colorado, they have a ways to be before they are there. 

 

What is Skinner's ppg since Tuch arrived?

And I realise without context that could cone across as snarky. Which is not my intention.  I am really interested to know if the arrival of Tuch could elevate Skinner to an elite level also.

Edited February 19, 2022 by steveoath

[Curt]

3 hours ago, steveoath said:

What is Skinner's ppg since Tuch arrived?

And I realise without context that could cone across as snarky. Which is not my intention.  I am really interested to know if the arrival of Tuch could elevate Skinner to an elite level also.

Tuch has played the last 17 games.  In the past 17 games Skinner has 11 goals, 6 assists, 17 pts.

[Brawndo]

4 hours ago, steveoath said:

What is Skinner's ppg since Tuch arrived?

And I realise without context that could cone across as snarky. Which is not my intention.  I am really interested to know if the arrival of Tuch could elevate Skinner to an elite level also.

Here is what The Athletic had to say about the Sabres Top Line 

3. While all eyes are on Eichel at the moment, some attention should be given to the player Buffalo landed in the deal: Alex Tuch. 

Tuch has fully embraced Buffalo as his home which can hopefully create an infectious attitude that helps shift the franchise’s losing culture. It helps a lot that he’s been playing spectacular hockey along the way. Buffalo got a real good one here.

In just 16 games as a Sabre, Tuch has seven goals and 19 points, a 97-point pace over a full season that would eclipse Eichel’s best pace as a Sabre of 94 points. Now, it’s unlikely that Tuch does keep that up — his on-ice shooting percentage is 14.4 percent — but the fact he’s even flashing this kind of offensive upside suggests he can be a real bonafide top-line player. That’s a massive get for Buffalo and the proof is in the underlying numbers where the Sabres, a team that routinely gets badly out-chanced, has 53 percent of the scoring chances with Tuch on the ice. No one else on the team is above breakeven. 

All of that has come on a line with Jeff Skinner and Tage Thompson who have earned 59 percent of the expected goals together in 100 minutes. Those are incredible numbers for a top line and that’s a great start for Buffalo’s rebuild redux. Keeping that up would be a massive win for the Sabres and that starts with Tuch. Skinner should be especially thankful. Since being placed on a line with Tuch full-time, the overpaid winger has 11 goals and 17 points in 16 games. That’s the type of play that makes him worth his lofty price tag.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Here is what The Athletic had to say about the Sabres Top Line 

3. While all eyes are on Eichel at the moment, some attention should be given to the player Buffalo landed in the deal: Alex Tuch. 

Tuch has fully embraced Buffalo as his home which can hopefully create an infectious attitude that helps shift the franchise’s losing culture. It helps a lot that he’s been playing spectacular hockey along the way. Buffalo got a real good one here.

In just 16 games as a Sabre, Tuch has seven goals and 19 points, a 97-point pace over a full season that would eclipse Eichel’s best pace as a Sabre of 94 points. Now, it’s unlikely that Tuch does keep that up — his on-ice shooting percentage is 14.4 percent — but the fact he’s even flashing this kind of offensive upside suggests he can be a real bonafide top-line player. That’s a massive get for Buffalo and the proof is in the underlying numbers where the Sabres, a team that routinely gets badly out-chanced, has 53 percent of the scoring chances with Tuch on the ice. No one else on the team is above breakeven. 

All of that has come on a line with Jeff Skinner and Tage Thompson who have earned 59 percent of the expected goals together in 100 minutes. Those are incredible numbers for a top line and that’s a great start for Buffalo’s rebuild redux. Keeping that up would be a massive win for the Sabres and that starts with Tuch. Skinner should be especially thankful. Since being placed on a line with Tuch full-time, the overpaid winger has 11 goals and 17 points in 16 games. That’s the type of play that makes him worth his lofty price tag.

No doubt Tuch has been special since arriving and he has very good chemistry w/ Skinner (did not see that coming).  Pretty sure the chemistry will stay good.  The question is what is Tuch's actual ceiling when he comes off the high of playing for the team he dreamed about as a kid.

The Sabres knew they were getting a 50 point player.  But it looks like he'll be at least a 60 point player and we can dream he'll be even closer to a PPG player.  Having a line with a player putting up those kinds of numbers will likely make Olofsson more valuable as he won't be facing other teams' top pairing so he should be able to find the space for that one timer.

[JohnC]

37 minutes ago, Taro T said:

No doubt Tuch has been special since arriving and he has very good chemistry w/ Skinner (did not see that coming).  Pretty sure the chemistry will stay good.  The question is what is Tuch's actual ceiling when he comes off the high of playing for the team he dreamed about as a kid.

The Sabres knew they were getting a 50 point player.  But it looks like he'll be at least a 60 point player and we can dream he'll be even closer to a PPG player.  Having a line with a player putting up those kinds of numbers will likely make Olofsson more valuable as he won't be facing other teams' top pairing so he should be able to find the space for that one timer.

Your post smartly illustrates how the impact of one player can positively reverberate to another player. As you point out with the creation of a top line it allows other players to be better slotted in more appropriate roles.

The Sabres for a long time have lacked talent. Obviously so! What that has done is forced third line players to play on higher lines, and third and fourth defensive pairings to play on higher pairings where the disparity of talent is evident when playing against more robust rosters. 

Is Olofsson a second-line player? I'm not sure, maybe not? But if he plays on a third line and thrives because he has more opportunities to get his shot off, then his biggest asset as a shooter is better utilized. 

Steadily our roster is adding young players that will eventually put players in the roles that they should be in. If you add JJ, Quinn and Mitts to the mix you can see how the lower lines (second and below) will be better slotted. How many years have the lower lines contributed little in the way of secondary scoring? When you add talents like Tuch and Krebs the benefits reverberate down the line. 

[woods-racer]

13 hours ago, sabresparaavida said:

No, but at least the career averages point to having an elite shot (based on the difference between gar and xgar) and he does show to be useful on the PP. he’s been playing a top 6 role for his career, but seems more suited for a 3rd scoring line with significant PP time. Overall a useful player, probably cast into a slightly too great a role.

So is he worth 4-5 mill over a 5 year term?

To me he is not.

He's another Ulmark. He's a good player with reasonable stats that will want a decent payday and long term. If we sign him for his potential and he stays at his average his contract will be a burden.

[kas23]

Before this injury, Olofsson had been a fairly decent player who was showing improvement every year. There’s no reason to jettison a decent player just because he’s only a middle-6 player. He’s great depth. As for cost, I wouldn’t overpay, but give him a fair contract. The Sabres are barely above the floor anyhow. 

[woods-racer]

6 hours ago, kas23 said:

Before this injury, Olofsson had been a fairly decent player who was showing improvement every year. There’s no reason to jettison a decent player just because he’s only a middle-6 player. He’s great depth. As for cost, I wouldn’t overpay, but give him a fair contract. The Sabres are barely above the floor anyhow. 

So what is fair?

I'm in the 3.5 for the 3 camp.

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, woods-racer said:

So what is fair?

I'm in the 3.5 for the 3 camp.

I would be agreeable to 4.5 for 3 yrs. The more important issue for me is length of a deal. Three years seems about right. This team needs to keep and add talent. Subtracting talent is the last thing this thin team needs to do. 

[Marvin]

For Olofsson, I think that short term, 2-3 years, at mid-range, say $4M, is OK.  I expect him to be a 3rd liner on this team on merit as soon as next year with either Krebs or Mittlestadt as his centre.  That would be admirable depth and would put him at an advantage over other bottom 6ers in the league.

[JohnC]

23 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

For Olofsson, I think that short term, 2-3 years, at mid-range, say $4M, is OK.  I expect him to be a 3rd liner on this team on merit as soon as next year with either Krebs or Mittlestadt as his centre.  That would be admirable depth and would put him at an advantage over other bottom 6ers in the league.

One of the major deficiencies that this team has had for a number of years is the lack of secondary scoring. If you put Olofsson on a third line with either Krebs, Mitts or even Cozens that problem will be ameliorated. 

I'm aware that Olofsson isn't scoring much right now. Some of that decline is due to the injury that he had. But what is apparent is that Olofsson has worked on his overall game. He is now more of a full length player rather than just a spot shooter. He's a player worth keeping.

[Radar]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

One of the major deficiencies that this team has had for a number of years is the lack of secondary scoring. If you put Olofsson on a third line with either Krebs, Mitts or even Cozens that problem will be ameliorated. 

I'm aware that Olofsson isn't scoring much right now. Some of that decline is due to the injury that he had. But what is apparent is that Olofsson has worked on his overall game. He is now more of a full length player rather than just a spot shooter. He's a player worth keeping.

Worth keeping at the right price but worth trading for the right return. He's a decent third line player.

 

[Zamboni]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

One of the major deficiencies that this team has had for a number of years is the lack of secondary scoring. If you put Olofsson on a third line with either Krebs, Mitts or even Cozens that problem will be ameliorated. 

I'm aware that Olofsson isn't scoring much right now. Some of that decline is due to the injury that he had. But what is apparent is that Olofsson has worked on his overall game. He is now more of a full length player rather than just a spot shooter. He's a player worth keeping.

 

49 minutes ago, Radar said:

Worth keeping at the right price but worth trading for the right return. He's a decent third line player.

 

I agree with both of these 👍🏼

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, JohnC said:

One of the major deficiencies that this team has had for a number of years is the lack of secondary scoring. If you put Olofsson on a third line with either Krebs, Mitts or even Cozens that problem will be ameliorated.