What do you expect from: #71 Victor Olofsson?

[Mustache of God]

I'd trade Oloffson in a heartbeat if the offer was right. Not because I don't like him as a player but I don't see where he fits on the team going forward.

[sweetlou]

I would include Olof in a hockey trade!!

Maybe Adams can pry JT Miller away from the Canucks??

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, Brawndo said:

I’m going to preface this with the fact I love Skinner on this team and that His resurgence this year has been sight to behold. I was one of the posters who argued for Him to be paid after His 40 Goal Season, as historically He had been one of the league best 5v5 goal scorers.  Watching Skinner-Tage-Tuch has been a positive, along with the young guys growth in an otherwise dismal season.

That being said, Skinner is tied with Minnesota’s Kaprizov for 4th on the list of the NHL for highest paid LWs in the league, 500k less than Ovi and Jaime Benn who are third.  Skinner ranks 24th in scoring amongst LWs this season, Jaime Benn is the only one with a higher AAV who is scoring at lower rate. 
 

As great as the Sabres Top Line has been playing, only Alex Tuch is on an 82 Game Pace for Elite Level Production with 92 points over a full season. Skinner and Tage are on pace for low 60’s.  Look at the teams that played last night on TNT in Florida, Carolina, Vegas and Colorado, they have a ways to be before they are there. 

Yes, the team has quite a bit of cap space in the next 2-3 years, but they also have quite a few players who are coming off of ELCs and those who will need new deals (Tage after next season) who are going to be due for pay raises and I would rather the team keep the younger core intact.  Botterill taught a master class in how to evaporate cap space while maintaining Bottom 5 Finishes. 
 

VO will be 27 when His next deal starts, as I mentioned in My Original Post giving Him term and an AAV North of 5 million has the potential to hamstring the team moving forward.  If he wants 2 years 5 Million, maybe even three years at that AAV sign him.  If he wants a longer term with that AAV and or takes the team to arbitration, then all bets are off 

And yes every team will have players who are overpaid and underpaid on the roster. That’s the goal of having a strong analytics department who can find underpaid players who can produce. 

 

I think you can sign him 5 for 5 if KA wants (I wouldn't), as long as you don't give him any kind of NMC/NTC.  This way, assuming he remains productive, he can be traded where ever to get the cap hit off the books.  It also is good insurance if guys like JJP, Rosen, Mitts or others don't develop as hoped.  

[Brawndo]

48 minutes ago, JohnC said:

With respect to your argument that Skinner's numbers don't compare to the numbers of good players on upper echelon teams you are without realizing it making my point. Upgrade the team in general and the stats for more players will be elevated. 

With respect to VO a three year deal at $4.75 to 5 M would in my estimation be a reasonable deal. As I said in a prior post I wouldn't give him a deal longer than 3 yrs. On this issue I believe we are in accord. My sense (opinion) is that getting a suitable deal for him and the organization is not going to be a major issue. TBD.

Here in lies the rub. Skinner is 29 this Season and turns 30 in May. Historically NHL Forwards begin to show a significant decline in production starting at age 29. So as the Sabres continue to add talent to the NHL Roster and move towards becoming a playoff contender, there is a significant chance that Skinner will have a drop off in points. Based on history it’s unlikely that Skinner will be able to level up in terms of production in future seasons to those of similar AAV, based on aging curves. 
 

There are a few players that have maintained high level of play well into their 30’s, hopefully Skinner can be added to the list. 

[GoPuckYourself]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

Marino is signed for 5 more years after this one at $4.4M per.

Whitecloud is signed for 6 years after this one at a very reasonable $2.75M per, as you said.  However, as you also said, Vegas is in cap trouble and for this reason, I simply can’t see them trading Whitecloud for Olofsson, who will definitely be making significantly more than Whitecloud.

True but we can always take salary back also like we did with the Islanders I think it was for Boychuck.

Edited February 17, 2022 by GoPuckYourself

[Weave]

6 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

There are a few players that have maintained high level of play well into their 30’s, hopefully Skinner can be added to the list. 

They are usually the elite skaters.  Gives Skinner a punchers chance.

[Radar]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

If I can get a 2023 first with no protections for Olofsson, I do it.

I'd jump so fast if I could get that.

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, Radar said:

I'd trade him in a hockey trade or a piece in significant trade. Not draft pick.

Agree

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I can't see anyone giving up a first or a good prospect this year for VO.  He's injured and his last 2 seasons he's produced very slightly above JAG level.

I think it's about 50/50 that he and the Sabres will agree on a deal that is longer than 1 year this summer, and only about 25% likely that they agree on a deal that is longer than 2 years.  He is going to want to be paid well to give up UFA years, and the Sabres will not want to pay that much given injury risk and mediocre production for the last 2 seasons.

OTOH, he has to consider that he will turn 28 in his UFA summer and would really have to deliver a monster season next year in order to attract, say, offers of 5 years x $5MM.  If he can get, say, 3 years x $4.5MM from the Sabres this summer, he might decide the prudent move is to take it.

Tricky decision for both sides.

JAG?

42 points in 54 games

32 points in 56 games 

[dudacek]

Olofsson with 25 goals has a lot of ammo at the bargaining table. Olofsson with 12 has very little.

If it's mostly about the money, it's in his best interest to take his qualifier and bet on next year being better.

If he likes Buffalo and wants security, we might be get him at a bargain if we offer term.

Either way, I don't see a lot of pressure on Adams, so long as he doesn't pay him as a core piece.

 

[Thorny]

Olofsson is averaging 53 points over 82 when considering his last 3 seasons in full 

No room on the Sabres for 50 point players 

Certainly not when we have several “maybe”s on the way who might make the NHL in 3 years

Edited February 17, 2022 by Thorny

[dudacek]

I like Vic. Hope they find a way to keep him at a Sabres-friendly price.

[Buffalonill]

Kotalik 2.0 trade him 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, GoPuckYourself said:

True but we can always take salary back also like we did with the Islanders I think it was for Boychuck.

Certainly, not sure that Vegas has any real dead weight contracts though. If they did they would have ditched them already.  I think it would be an unlikely trade fit, but anything is possible.

[Curt]

14 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Kotalik 2.0 trade him 

Kotalik was a useful player.  I would take that.

[Buffalonill]

8 minutes ago, Curt said:

Kotalik was a useful player.  I would take that.

I truly  believe the dude is injured  he hasn't played the same way in the beginning of the year .

 

Still dont want him for 4-5 m a year 

[Curt]

13 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

I truly  believe the dude is injured  he hasn't played the same way in the beginning of the year .

Still dont want him for 4-5 m a year 

Yeah, he definitely has been injured.  Something is affecting his release.

[pi2000]

trade

[GoPuckYourself]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

Certainly, not sure that Vegas has any real dead weight contracts though. If they did they would have ditched them already.  I think it would be an unlikely trade fit, but anything is possible.

I truly think this would be an even trade. RW Reilly Smith is a free agent in the offseason, he makes, or was making 5M per season so they could offer a 5M per year contract to Olofsson (which is my guess is what he'll be asking for). Whitecloud and Olofsson have similar contracts now so it could work for both sides, nobody would have to throw in anything else.

[Curt]

8 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I truly think this would be an even trade. RW Reilly Smith is a free agent in the offseason, he makes, or was making 5M per season so they could offer a 5M per year contract to Olofsson (which is my guess is what he'll be asking for). Whitecloud and Olofsson have similar contracts now so it could work for both sides, nobody would have to throw in anything else.

Yeah, I’m sure there is a way to make something like that work.  Smith’s $5M is not $5M available for next season though because Vegas is actually like $8M or something over the cap right now if all their guys were healthy.

[OrangeSeatVertigo]

don't really care one way or the other.   Give me Quinn and Murray as soon as possible.  So many of the current roster will be irrelevant once APL, Levi, Power, Quinn, Murray, Samuelson, etc come up for good.  Today's roster , with a few exceptions is not at all tomorrows roster.  Looking forward to it.  

Edited February 18, 2022 by OrangeSeatVertigo

[JohnC]

16 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Here in lies the rub. Skinner is 29 this Season and turns 30 in May. Historically NHL Forwards begin to show a significant decline in production starting at age 29. So as the Sabres continue to add talent to the NHL Roster and move towards becoming a playoff contender, there is a significant chance that Skinner will have a drop off in points. Based on history it’s unlikely that Skinner will be able to level up in terms of production in future seasons to those of similar AAV, based on aging curves. 
 

There are a few players that have maintained high level of play well into their 30’s, hopefully Skinner can be added to the list. 

The Skinner issue related to his contract and production is for the most part a closed issue. It is a sunk cost that can't be retrieved. The franchise has to live with its future ramifications. The best way to handle his case is to upgrade the team around him and get as much production as possible from him. He's not movable, so that option is unlikely. 

As you point out those very long-term deals historically lose their value at the back end of the contracts. The organization is simply stuck with the consequences of that deal. Was that contract worth it? Probably not. The moral of the story is to build a roster with more talent spread out so that the consequences of losing a primary player wouldn't be so damaging. Where we are at is where we are at. If you can't change the situation then you just have to adapt to it. 

How does the Skinner example relate to Olofsson? I'm not so much worried about what he makes per year. On the other hand I would be against giving him a contract longer than three years. I think we agree on that????

[nfreeman]

17 hours ago, Thorny said:

Agree

JAG?

42 points in 54 games

32 points in 56 games 

I was referring to last season and this season.  His 13 goals in 56 games last season and 7 goals in 40 games this season isn't going to get him a fat UFA contract unless he has a major rebound season next year.

 

15 hours ago, Curt said:

Kotalik was a useful player.  I would take that.

Me too. 

[sweetlou]

Vic at a 3 year extension under $4.5 AAV you keep him.   If he wants longer term or more money, you trade him.

[jsb]

Unless VO has a big year next year or finishes the year big, no-one is going to give him a 4.5-5M a year contract with term. No-one. 

[bob_sauve28]

This is a tough one. He was really great earlier and we need talented players, obviously, but if for what ever reason he can't score anymore it would be awful to throw money and cap space at him.