What do you expect from: #71 Victor Olofsson?

[GASabresIUFAN]

32 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

2.5 mil max. Likely means trade.  Injury broke him

 

23 minutes ago, inkman said:

Just for perspective, Joel Armia makes $3.4 milll

...and VO already makes $3.05. His RFA qualifying offer will be at least 3.05.

I believe he'll ask for at least 5 for 5. 

Edited February 17, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[DarthEbriate]

Olofsson has an elite shot. VO's injury has taken away his shot and VO without the cannon is a very responsible player. For a time, he was still picking up assists and PP time, but Tuch kicked him off the top unit and top line. Then, the points dried up. He's recently started to look good again. Before his injury he was attacking, playmaking, and as always carried his lethal shot. He was looking great and over a point per game.

Since the injury he's either not recovered (more likely) or simply lost all confidence (certainly impacted, but even without confidence you can take a slapshot). Recently, he's at least started to fire the wrister again.

I re-sign him to a really good 2-year contract. The Sabres have no issues with the cap in the short-term, and if healthy, VO can absolutely carry a line for a week or two at a time. If he's busted, fine, he'll move on or be a rental with some retained salary the year before we really need more cap space.

2 years, $5.5M-$6M. And if he proves it, great! Hopefully he's also been relegated down the lineup by up-and-coming prospects. Then, when it's time to re-sign Dahlin, Joker, Mitts, Krebs, and Quinn -- VO can sign to a bit less or get moved. In any event, he forces the kids to have to beat him out. That's a value in and of itself.

[JohnnyK]

A healthy VO as 3rd line winger in the next year or two seems like a good fit on a good Sabres team.  He also has no trade value currently.  

 

[JohnC]

5 hours ago, Brawndo said:

The Sabres Top Six is currently 

Skinner-Tage-Tuch

Krebs-Cozens-VO

With Mitts, Quinn and probably Peterka ready to step in this year or next. 
Two, probably all three of those players are better than VO and one will take His Spot most likely.
 

Depending what His Contract Demands are, it’s possible that the Sabres would be paying a Third Line Winger North of 5 Million when in a few short years most of those previously mentioned players will need new deals.

If the Sabres acquired a 4th First Round Pick this Year or a 2nd Next Season, moving one of those picks as part of a package for a Young RHD becomes most realistic. 

If Olofsson is on a good third line because the team has enough good players to make up two good top lines, then what is wrong with that? Having a deep team instead of a thin team is a better situation to be in especially when you factor for the inevitable injuries. The Sabres have struggled for more than a decade. I'm more worried about the present then worried about the salary implications a few years down the road. If the time comes when there is a cap squeeze then you do what every other team does---you make the necessary moves to adjust to that situation. 

 

[Digger]

In my opinion trading him now would be selling low.  I don't see much of a downside in keeping him.  Worst case he signs a one year deal and we make the trade next season (but hopefully he returns to form with the one timers).  He should have a talented center to play with regardless of the line he plays on (Thompson, Mittelstad, Cozens, Krebs).  He'll be fine and fits into the short term plans for the Sabres.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

I don’t disagree with you. I don’t think they should get rid of him due to his current injury.  I don’t want to get rid of him.

But his current contractual situation is precarious.  What if he presents the Sabres with two options, (1) he believes that he is a 20+ goal 50+ point scorer and  thus worth $5M+ per season, (2) he wants a 1 year deal at low money so he has the chance to prove his value?  What are the Sabres to do?

I think we are more in accord than discord. I say let his play dictate his worth. If he regains his scoring touch and excels on a line with Krebs and Cousins, then his value/contract cost increases. If he struggles and his production lags, then his value/contract cost declines. That's how the system works. 

When talking about the Sabres financial situation there is a context here. It is that the Sabres currently have a lot of cap space. The GM certainly won't find himself being squeezed by Olof's salary requirements.  

As I previously stated this franchise needs to add talent, not subtract it. It's time to move up and advance. Creating additional holes and then having to go back to fill them is an act of futility that the fan base shouldn't have to be subjected to. It's time to get serious and do what you have to do to compete with the big boys. 

[Curt]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

I think we are more in accord than discord. I say let his play dictate his worth. If he regains his scoring touch and excels on a line with Krebs and Cousins, then his value/contract cost increases. If he struggles and his production lags, then his value/contract cost declines. That's how the system works. 

When talking about the Sabres financial situation there is a context here. It is that the Sabres currently have a lot of cap space. The GM certainly won't find himself being squeezed by Olof's salary requirements.  

As I previously stated this franchise needs to add talent, not subtract it. It's time to move up and advance. Creating additional holes and then having to go back to fill them is an act of futility that the fan base shouldn't have to be subjected to. It's time to get serious and do what you have to do to compete with the big boys. 

So, earlier you seemed to say the Max you would do is $4.5M for 3 years, or there abouts.  If Olofsson says he wants $5.5M for 5 years (above what you are willing to do), or a 1 year deal, what do you do?

I’m seriously asking.  I think it’s fairly likely that Olofsson will want a one year contract if he can not get a long term deal.

[JohnC]

Just now, Curt said:

So, earlier you seemed to say the Max you would do is $4.5M for 3 years, or there abouts.  If Olofsson says he wants $5.5M for 5 years (above what you are willing to do), or a 1 year deal, what do you do?

I’m seriously asking.  I think it’s fairly likely that Olofsson will want a one year contract if he can not get a long term deal.

If he goes on a scoring rampage and his value goes up then I have no problem paying him the going rate. However, I would be reluctant to give him a 5 year contract. If a deal can't get done, then give him a one year contract and let him bet on himself. I would rather have a player excel and then have to deal with an increase in cost than deal with a middling productive player and get him at a cheap price. 

Having young players who produce and then having to decide who to pay and who to deal is a better situation to be in than having a roster filled with cheap JAGS. For the next few years the Sabres will be able to accommodate an increase in payroll. If, and when, it gets to the point that they have to make tough decisions on who to keep and who to deal off then that's what you do, just like every good team has to do. 

This is just my impression but I sense that Olofsson wants to get a deal here; and it is my impression that so does the organization. 

 

[Curt]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

If he goes on a scoring rampage and his value goes up then I have no problem paying him the going rate. However, I would be reluctant to give him a 5 year contract. If a deal can't get done, then give him a one year contract and let him bet on himself. I would rather have a player excel and then have to deal with an increase in cost than deal with a middling productive player and get him at a cheap price. 

Having young players who produce and then having to decide who to pay and who to deal is a better situation to be in than having a roster filled with cheap JAGS. For the next few years the Sabres will be able to accommodate an increase in payroll. If, and when, it gets to the point that they have to make tough decisions on who to keep and who to deal off then that's what you do, just like every good team has to do. 

This is just my impression but I sense that Olofsson wants to get a deal here; and it is my impression that so does the organization. 

 

My concern with the one year deal would not be a potential increase in cost so much as the possibility of him walking at the end of that one year.

I don’t know where either sides’ head is at regarding this.  Maybe they will see eye to eye, maybe they won’t.  I just think it’s a very sensitive situation and the possibility of Olofsson going one more year then out is very real.

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

If Olofsson is on a good third line because the team has enough good players to make up two good top lines, then what is wrong with that? Having a deep team instead of a thin team is a better situation to be in especially when you factor for the inevitable injuries. The Sabres have struggled for more than a decade. I'm more worried about the present then worried about the salary implications a few years down the road. If the time comes when there is a cap squeeze then you do what every other team does---you make the necessary moves to adjust to that situation. 

 

 

26 minutes ago, Curt said:

My concern with the one year deal would not be a potential increase in cost so much as the possibility of him walking at the end of that one year.

I don’t know where either sides’ head is at regarding this.  Maybe they will see eye to eye, maybe they won’t.  I just think it’s a very sensitive situation and the possibility of Olofsson going one more year then out is very real.

Olofsson is arbitration eligible and is one year away from UFA as Curt mentioned, he controls His Future. 
 

He will be 27 when His Next Deal Starts and Has been taken off the Top PP Unit and I imagine that Quinn is going to be a barrier to His Return to it. Couple that with the strong possibility He is going to be a third liner, His Production is bound to drop. 
His current deal pays Him 3.05 Million AAV, if He asks an for an AAV north of 5 Million with term, that’s were the trouble begins. Neither Skinner or Okposo are living up to Their Current Deals, but Okposo has embraced a new defensive forward role. Every team signs contracts that they regret at the end, but Skinner still has five years left on His and the potential of having two forwards on the wrong side of 30 taking up 14 Million in Cap Space in 3 Seasons is worrisome. Why purposely put the Your Team into Long term Cap Trouble for a player You know has the potential to have a rapid decline in productivity. 
 

Now if He wants to sign a Team Friendly Deal to stay with His Bestie Asplund, that’s a different story. 2-3 years at 4-4.5 AAV is certainly much better. 

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

It's possible we're all worrying about him potentially being intransigent needlessly.  He seems to like it here & it's quite possible he appreciates the fact the Sabres took a chance on him way back when & he'd like to be a part of the solution here.  We all saw how psyched his team was when he scored.  That wasn't just because they were on the verge of a 2 game winning streak.

My expectation is they'll work out a 3 or 4 year deal that works for both sides.  No idea what the $'s will be but wouldn't be surprised if the AAV was in the $4's.

Toffoli, Arvidsson, Beauvillier, Iafallo, Kubalik…

You might be able to find a sweet spot with a 3-4 years at $4+ considering his numbers this year don’t justify that, but his career #s and age might.

He would have to want the security and to stay in Buffalo. The Sabres would have to believe he will continue to score 20 goals, which both justifies the cap hit and makes him movable if Quinn or others push him out due to a pain crunch.

[Norcal]

Sign him or don't. You can't keep em all.

He'd be useful for another year or two but he won't crack the lineup of a contending Sabres team imo

[Thorny]

9 hours ago, sabremike said:

Everyone knows the secret to success in the NHL is to constantly get rid of your few NHL quality players for draft picks. 

/thread 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Thorny
Dunno if I’m doing that right

[Huckleberry]

If he really is playing injured , what team would trade for him ? I would sign him to a 4 year deal and hope he scores 20 a year again.

[Weave]

15 hours ago, sabremike said:

Everyone knows the secret to success in the NHL is to constantly get rid of your few NHL quality players for draft picks. 

Its the reason the Sabres have been so successful over the last decade.  If it aint broke…..

[Drag0nDan]

I probably wouldn't trade him for anything in the draft.  A different type of NHLer though and I'd probably listen.  

[JohnC]

8 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

Olofsson is arbitration eligible and is one year away from UFA as Curt mentioned, he controls His Future. 
 

He will be 27 when His Next Deal Starts and Has been taken off the Top PP Unit and I imagine that Quinn is going to be a barrier to His Return to it. Couple that with the strong possibility He is going to be a third liner, His Production is bound to drop. 
His current deal pays Him 3.05 Million AAV, if He asks an for an AAV north of 5 Million with term, that’s were the trouble begins. Neither Skinner or Okposo are living up to Their Current Deals, but Okposo has embraced a new defensive forward role. Every team signs contracts that they regret at the end, but Skinner still has five years left on His and the potential of having two forwards on the wrong side of 30 taking up 14 Million in Cap Space in 3 Seasons is worrisome. Why purposely put the Your Team into Long term Cap Trouble for a player You know has the potential to have a rapid decline in productivity. 
 

Now if He wants to sign a Team Friendly Deal to stay with His Bestie Asplund, that’s a different story. 2-3 years at 4-4.5 AAV is certainly much better. 

Is Skinner over-paid? I'm going against the current here and say not necessarily. If he scores 30 + goals for us, he is a valuable player bordering on indispensable. What has turned his game around is that he no longer is playing for a troglodyte coach who is strangling him into oblivion. And when you have a scorer like him and play him with talented players such as Tuch and Tage it translates into production. The Sabres now have a credible first line that can compete with other first-rate first lines. And Skinner is a central member of that unit. What he earns shouldn't be a troubling issue for a franchise that had a challenge to meet the cap floor. 

When dealing with a roster it is impossible to perfectly calibrate the value/production ratio. Some players are going to be overpaid while some players will be underpaid. The key consideration is to not get so consumed with the salary and focus more on putting a player in a position to maximize his talents and value. That's what Granato has done with Skinner and Dahlin. 

For those who harshly criticize Skinner for being overpaid my response would be what if he wasn't on the roster? This team would have a gaping hole that would require filling. The next question would be how much would it cost to get a Skinner like scorer? It would not be much different from what we are already paying him. 

Look at the standings. The reality is that the Sabres are near the bottom of the standings vying with bottom feeding teams such as Ottawa. A primary issue at this time shouldn't be who is over or under paid because the Sabres have plenty of cap space. The critical issue is keeping and adding talent. When the time comes when the cap issue becomes a factor then address it. 

Make no mistake what I am saying here. I'm not promoting salary profligacy because that would be reckless. What I am saying is that the focus should be on adding talent and not subtracting it for a non-existent cap issue. This team still has a way to go before achieving relevancy. Let's not step back and have to go further to reach the destination. 

[Weave]

34 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

I probably wouldn't trade him for anything in the draft.  A different type of NHLer though and I'd probably listen.  

Ahh yes.  Good ole hockey trade.  Gimme some.

[GoPuckYourself]

I'd say trade him straight up for a RHD, some names I saw that could be available are John Marino (Pittsburgh) 24, not sure of his contract but he's a solid player. Also Zach Whitecloud (Vegas) 25 years old, they're in cap trouble. I believe he has a cap hit of 755k and then he's signed at 2.78M until 2026, that's a very reasonable deal for his excellent 2 way play.

Edited February 17, 2022 by GoPuckYourself

[Brawndo]

46 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Is Skinner over-paid? I'm going against the current here and say not necessarily. If he scores 30 + goals for us, he is a valuable player bordering on indispensable. What has turned his game around is that he no longer is playing for a troglodyte coach who is strangling him into oblivion. And when you have a scorer like him and play him with talented players such as Tuch and Tage it translates into production. The Sabres now have a credible first line that can compete with other first-rate first lines. And Skinner is a central member of that unit. What he earns shouldn't be a troubling issue for a franchise that had a challenge to meet the cap floor. 

When dealing with a roster it is impossible to perfectly calibrate the value/production ratio. Some players are going to be overpaid while some players will be underpaid. The key consideration is to not get so consumed with the salary and focus more on putting a player in a position to maximize his talents and value. That's what Granato has done with Skinner and Dahlin. 

For those who harshly criticize Skinner for being overpaid my response would be what if he wasn't on the roster? This team would have a gaping hole that would require filling. The next question would be how much would it cost to get a Skinner like scorer? It would not be much different from what we are already paying him. 

Look at the standings. The reality is that the Sabres are near the bottom of the standings vying with bottom feeding teams such as Ottawa. A primary issue at this time shouldn't be who is over or under paid because the Sabres have plenty of cap space. The critical issue is keeping and adding talent. When the time comes when the cap issue becomes a factor then address it. 

Make no mistake what I am saying here. I'm not promoting salary profligacy because that would be reckless. What I am saying is that the focus should be on adding talent and not subtracting it for a non-existent cap issue. This team still has a way to go before achieving relevancy. Let's not step back and have to go further to reach the destination. 

I’m going to preface this with the fact I love Skinner on this team and that His resurgence this year has been sight to behold. I was one of the posters who argued for Him to be paid after His 40 Goal Season, as historically He had been one of the league best 5v5 goal scorers.  Watching Skinner-Tage-Tuch has been a positive, along with the young guys growth in an otherwise dismal season.

That being said, Skinner is tied with Minnesota’s Kaprizov for 4th on the list of the NHL for highest paid LWs in the league, 500k less than Ovi and Jaime Benn who are third.  Skinner ranks 24th in scoring amongst LWs this season, Jaime Benn is the only one with a higher AAV who is scoring at lower rate. 
 

As great as the Sabres Top Line has been playing, only Alex Tuch is on an 82 Game Pace for Elite Level Production with 92 points over a full season. Skinner and Tage are on pace for low 60’s.  Look at the teams that played last night on TNT in Florida, Carolina, Vegas and Colorado, they have a ways to be before they are there. 

Yes, the team has quite a bit of cap space in the next 2-3 years, but they also have quite a few players who are coming off of ELCs and those who will need new deals (Tage after next season) who are going to be due for pay raises and I would rather the team keep the younger core intact.  Botterill taught a master class in how to evaporate cap space while maintaining Bottom 5 Finishes. 
 

VO will be 27 when His next deal starts, as I mentioned in My Original Post giving Him term and an AAV North of 5 million has the potential to hamstring the team moving forward.  If he wants 2 years 5 Million, maybe even three years at that AAV sign him.  If he wants a longer term with that AAV and or takes the team to arbitration, then all bets are off 

And yes every team will have players who are overpaid and underpaid on the roster. That’s the goal of having a strong analytics department who can find underpaid players who can produce. 

 

[Radar]

I'd trade him in a hockey trade or a piece in significant trade. Not draft pick.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I'd say trade him straight up for a RHD, some names I saw that could be available are John Marino (Pittsburgh) 24, not sure of his contract but he's a solid player. Also Zach Whitecloud (Vegas) 25 years old, they're in cap trouble. I believe he has a cap hit of 755k and then he's signed at 2.78M until 2026, that's a very reasonable deal for his excellent 2 way play.

Marino is signed for 5 more years after this one at $4.4M per.

Whitecloud is signed for 6 years after this one at a very reasonable $2.75M per, as you said.  However, as you also said, Vegas is in cap trouble and for this reason, I simply can’t see them trading Whitecloud for Olofsson, who will definitely be making significantly more than Whitecloud.

[LGR4GM]

If I can get a 2023 first with no protections for Olofsson, I do it.

[nfreeman]

I can't see anyone giving up a first or a good prospect this year for VO.  He's injured and his last 2 seasons he's produced very slightly above JAG level.

I think it's about 50/50 that he and the Sabres will agree on a deal that is longer than 1 year this summer, and only about 25% likely that they agree on a deal that is longer than 2 years.  He is going to want to be paid well to give up UFA years, and the Sabres will not want to pay that much given injury risk and mediocre production for the last 2 seasons.

OTOH, he has to consider that he will turn 28 in his UFA summer and would really have to deliver a monster season next year in order to attract, say, offers of 5 years x $5MM.  If he can get, say, 3 years x $4.5MM from the Sabres this summer, he might decide the prudent move is to take it.

Tricky decision for both sides.

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, Brawndo said:

I’m going to preface this with the fact I love Skinner on this team and that His resurgence this year has been sight to behold. I was one of the posters who argued for Him to be paid after His 40 Goal Season, as historically He had been one of the league best 5v5 goal scorers.  Watching Skinner-Tage-Tuch has been a positive, along with the young guys growth in an otherwise dismal season.

That being said, Skinner is tied with Minnesota’s Kaprizov for 4th on the list of the NHL for highest paid LWs in the league, 500k less than Ovi and Jaime Benn who are third.  Skinner ranks 24th in scoring amongst LWs this season, Jaime Benn is the only one with a higher AAV who is scoring at lower rate. 
 

As great as the Sabres Top Line has been playing, only Alex Tuch is on an 82 Game Pace for Elite Level Production with 92 points over a full season. Skinner and Tage are on pace for low 60’s.  Look at the teams that played last night on TNT in Florida, Carolina, Vegas and Colorado, they have a ways to be before they are there. 

Yes, the team has quite a bit of cap space in the next 2-3 years, but they also have quite a few players who are coming off of ELCs and those who will need new deals (Tage after next season) who are going to be due for pay raises and I would rather the team keep the younger core intact.  Botterill taught a master class in how to evaporate cap space while maintaining Bottom 5 Finishes. 
 

VO will be 27 when His next deal starts, as I mentioned in My Original Post giving Him term and an AAV North of 5 million has the potential to hamstring the team moving forward.  If he wants 2 years 5 Million, maybe even three years at that AAV sign him.  If he wants a longer term with that AAV and or takes the team to arbitration, then all bets are off 

And yes every team will have players who are overpaid and underpaid on the roster. That’s the goal of having a strong analytics department who can find underpaid players who can produce. 

 

With respect to your argument that Skinner's numbers don't compare to the numbers of good players on upper echelon teams you are without realizing it making my point. Upgrade the team in general and the stats for more players will be elevated. 

With respect to VO a three year deal at $4.75 to 5 M would in my estimation be a reasonable deal. As I said in a prior post I wouldn't give him a deal longer than 3 yrs. On this issue I believe we are in accord. My sense (opinion) is that getting a suitable deal for him and the organization is not going to be a major issue. TBD.