UPDATE: Sam Reinhart signs 2-year extension -- $3.65MM per year

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

I think it’s a good point.  Liger is right that Dahlin’s contract won’t take effect until the following year, but it will still be a big factor in their planning — especially if all 3 of them prove worthy of fat long-term deals.   

I will be somewhat surprised if Casey’s next two years are significantly better than Sam’s last two.

This may set the bar for a bridge for Casey in two years.

As far as Rasmus goes, Aaron Ekblad is the gold standard for a defenceman’s second contract at $7 million. I’m not aware of another who signed for even $6.

[shrader]

If he throws a good year out there this season, they'll probably be locking him up with the longer deal at this time next year.

[matter2003]

Wow...that is a steal

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I really think that this 2 year deal will come back to bite JBOT in the a$$.

[stenbaro]

15 minutes ago, N S said:

I really think that this 2 year deal will come back to bite JBOT in the a$$.

Why do you think this? 

[...]

19 minutes ago, N S said:

I really think that this 2 year deal will come back to bite JBOT in the a$$.

Curious as well to know why you think so.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 minute ago, stenbaro said:

Why do you think this? 

I was in favour of an 8 year contract at 6.5 million per.  I really think Sam would have gone for it in a second.  JBOT would have had cap hit certitude for a long time.  I really think that in 2 years time there is no possible way that Sam signs for 6.5 per year.  By year 4 of the 8 at 6.5 it will look like a steal, if not in year 3.  Anyway, we shall see if JBOT's gamble pays off.

[stenbaro]

1 minute ago, N S said:

I was in favour of an 8 year contract at 6.5 million per.  I really think Sam would have gone for it in a second.  JBOT would have had cap hit certitude for a long time.  I really think that in 2 years time there is no possible way that Sam signs for 6.5 per year.  By year 4 of the 8 at 6.5 it will look like a steal, if not in year 3.  Anyway, we shall see if JBOT's gamble pays off.

I see where you are coming from then. Hopefully he crushes it this year and as someone posted earlier they reward him next year. We will definitely see what type of management team as far as player negotiations go now. Here is his litmus test.

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 minutes ago, N S said:

I was in favour of an 8 year contract at 6.5 million per.  I really think Sam would have gone for it in a second.  JBOT would have had cap hit certitude for a long time.  I really think that in 2 years time there is no possible way that Sam signs for 6.5 per year.  By year 4 of the 8 at 6.5 it will look like a steal, if not in year 3.  Anyway, we shall see if JBOT's gamble pays off.

This is exactly what Jbot needed to do. Reinhart had no leverage.  He is not a fast skater and has scored 48 of his 140 NHL pts on the PP, including 29 of his 65 NHL goals.  Jbot is trying to build a fast team that can score 5 on 5 in addition to the PP.  This is a show me contract.  He needs to prove that he can be a star on a fast team.  We'll see.  Jbot is obviously concerned that last year's 2nd half is a fluke.   This deal also gives Jbot cap space for this season and additional room next year if Skinner proves worth re-signing.  

Edited September 19, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[...]

6 minutes ago, N S said:

I was in favour of an 8 year contract at 6.5 million per.  I really think Sam would have gone for it in a second.  JBOT would have had cap hit certitude for a long time.  I really think that in 2 years time there is no possible way that Sam signs for 6.5 per year.  By year 4 of the 8 at 6.5 it will look like a steal, if not in year 3.  Anyway, we shall see if JBOT's gamble pays off.

I think the fly in the ointment with this perspective is that JBot is not fully confident in what kind of player he has in Samson.  If he gives Samson an 8/$6.5m contract and Samson winds up being Drew Stafford, then the contract becomes another albatross.  

Edited September 19, 2018 by ...

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Guys,

I know why JBOT did this contract and I hope it works out.  JBOT did a good job and wants more proof that Samson is really part of this team long-term.  I get all that, but I really think that it will likely backfire.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I will be somewhat surprised if Casey’s next two years are significantly better than Sam’s last two.

This may set the bar for a bridge for Casey in two years.

As far as Rasmus goes, Aaron Ekblad is the gold standard for a defenceman’s second contract at $7 million. I’m not aware of another who signed for even $6.

I haven't seen enough from Casey yet to be very confident, but I think JBott expects Casey's 1st 2 years to be better than Reino's 1st 2 years and probably Reino's last 2 years.

If not, though, I'm very much on board with a similar bridge for Casey.

Interesting point on the 2nd contracts for defensemen.

 

1 hour ago, shrader said:

If he throws a good year out there this season, they'll probably be locking him up with the longer deal at this time next year.

 

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is exactly what Jbot needed to do. Reinhart had no leverage.  He is not a fast skater and has scored 77 of his 140 NHL pts on the PP.  Jbot is trying to build a fast team that can score 5 on 5 in addition to the PP.  This is a show me contract.  He needs to prove that he can be a star on a fast team.  We'll see.  Jbot is obviously concerned that last year's 2nd half is a fluke.   This deal also gives Jbot cap space for this season and additional room next year if Skinner proves worth re-signing.  

Both of these are also interesting points.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I will be somewhat surprised if Casey’s next two years are significantly better than Sam’s last two.

This may set the bar for a bridge for Casey in two years.

As far as Rasmus goes, Aaron Ekblad is the gold standard for a defenceman’s second contract at $7 million. I’m not aware of another who signed for even $6.

There is no standard for Dahlin. If Ekblad is the gold standard, Dahlin is the platinum. Ekblad averages 35pts a year roughly. His high is 39 during his rookie year. I fully expect Dahlin to top 39 points in year 2 if not year 3 of his rookie deal. 

 

I think we could see Casey's 2nd year be better than the 50pts Reinhart got last year. 

Edited September 19, 2018 by LGR4GM

[...]

7 minutes ago, N S said:

Guys,

I know why JBOT did this contract and I hope it works out.  JBOT did a good job and wants more proof that Samson is really part of this team long-term.  I get all that, but I really think that it will likely backfire.

I think to make a solid point, here, there needs to be some maths.  My guess would be JBot already has a spreadsheet with players' current and possible (future) salaries he can play around with.  He probably has offers already estimated for Samson two years hence as well as the rest of them and knows what he's getting into.  We'd need to see a facsimile of that spreadsheet to know at what level player would JBot get himself into "trouble."  For example, does Samson turn into a $5.5m/yr, $6.5m/yr, $8m/yr player and where is the threshold where it becomes problematic.

Edited September 19, 2018 by ...

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

  This deal also gives Jbot cap space for this season and additional room next year if Skinner proves worth re-signing.  

 

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

 

Both of these are also interesting points.

With Samson's signing we have only 2.8 mill in cap space.  If Jbot had given Samson 5 or 6 mill, we would have been operating without any roster flexibility.  We are also at 48 of 50 contracts.

Next season is better with only 54 mill committed to 15 players, but Skinner, McCabe and Ullmark may need to be re-signed.  

[nfreeman]

48 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

With Samson's signing we have only 2.8 mill in cap space.  If Jbot had given Samson 5 or 6 mill, we would have been operating without any roster flexibility.  We are also at 48 of 50 contracts.

Next season is better with only 54 mill committed to 15 players, but Skinner, McCabe and Ullmark may need to be re-signed.  

I'm hoping all 3 of those guys prove to be worth keeping.  There is a good likelihood this will be the case.

[LGR4GM]

I keep waiting for a trade... not Reinhart but someone in that bottom 6. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

With Nelson and Thompson we are at 24 players. Someone needs to go but whom?

[WildCard]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I keep waiting for a trade... not Reinhart but someone in that bottom 6. 

It's gonna be Girgensons for a 3rd

[North Buffalo]

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

It's gonna be Girgensons for a 3rd

Probably the right call Girgs has more value than Larry.

[North Buffalo]

4 minutes ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

Then waive Larry and keep Girgs

Or better yet waive Larry and trade Girgs for a 3rd.

[LTS]

This is a great deal.  I am not worried about 2 years from now.

Assuming Reinhart plays so well he commands $8M in a contract, it only matters if Mittlestadt and Dahlin also demand top money.  If that happens, one of them (Reinhart) is going to get a good return in younger players or picks to help restock the prospect pool.  If not, they find a way to sign all the players.  

If Reinhart doesn't play to $8M then the story changes.

However, for the moment, it's a great deal.

[erickompositör72]

I didn't think this was the right move, but I trust JBots, for this reason alone:

 

Look at our farm system. Look how many in Rochester are applying upward pressure on the Sabres roster. I'm confident this scenario's intensity will only increase over the next two years. I'm sure there will be no bottom-6 forwards making Pominville money at that time, and if we can't afford a certain player, there will be a rookie ready to jump in and fill the role on a cheap contract. I'm confident in our core. Could this be described as the "Pittsburgh model" ?

[Derrico]

I know I liked zero f***s given at one time as well.  But I’m really really digging jbot as gm.  From his couple of promising looking drafts to his trades and signings.  Not all have panned out and some of this competition is the result of drafts that preceded him but I feel confident where this thing is heading.  

[Mustache of God]

16 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

I didn't think this was the right move, but I trust JBots, for this reason alone:

 

Look at our farm system. Look how many in Rochester are applying upward pressure on the Sabres roster. I'm confident this scenario's intensity will only increase over the next two years. I'm sure there will be no bottom-6 forwards making Pominville money at that time, and if we can't afford a certain player, there will be a rookie ready to jump in and fill the role on a cheap contract. I'm confident in our core. Could this be described as the "Pittsburgh model" ?

We also have 3 1st round picks next year that will make Rochester even more crowded with actual talent in a couple of years.

To the posters hoping for a trade in the bottom 6, I wouldn't hold your breath. This time of year nobody is trading for bottom-6ers who can barely make the worst team from last years roster. The only teams I can really see Girgensons or Ottawa going to would be OTT or MTL but i'm sure they'd rather pick them up on the waiver wire.