Trade Speculation and Rumors 2018-19

[shrader]

True, but trading w/in division doesn't necessarily help either. Ottomh: Out Paille. In Lehner, Legwand, Gorges, & Beaulieu. Meh.

 

If we're going take the hindsight approach, who are we allowed to trade with at this point?  I can't think of anything we've come out on the positive side from in a long time other than Minnesota (Scandella) and Colorado (O'Reilly).

[WildCard]

You're right, he isn't, unlike most all of Moe-ray-all's other forwards not named Gallagher. ;)

 

Give 'em Nylander & a sweetener & put him on Eichel's wing.

Could be wrong but didn't Bergevin get Drouin to be a center? And continues to make Galchenyuck a winger?

[Taro T]

If we're going take the hindsight approach, who are we allowed to trade with at this point?  I can't think of anything we've come out on the positive side from in a long time other than Minnesota (Scandella) and Colorado (O'Reilly).

:lol:

 

Especially now that Snow is toast, guess there aren't many trading partners left. Larsson to Nashville for a 1? ;)

Could be wrong but didn't Bergevin get Drouin to be a center? And continues to make Galchenyuck a winger?

Bergevin & his coach not being on the same page is a huge part of their problem, no?

[WildCard]

Bergevin & his coach not being on the same page is a huge part of their problem, no?

Hard for me to put any blame on Julien given his success in Boston and Bergevin's complete and legitimately astonishing ineptitude since he's been hired. 

 

In the 2nd most demanding hockey market in the world, HOW DOES HE HAVE A JOB????

Edited June 6, 2018 by WildCard

[TrueBlueGED]

Long discussion on Trading ROR on WGR 550 this AM, shocking that they talked about the Sabres for more than 15 minutes this AM. White agreed with a tweet that ROR for Galchenyuk, Victor Mete and Montreal’s 2018 2nd. And Howard Simon mentioned he is not worried about trading him within the division.

A willingness to trade O'Reilly for Galchenyuk and Mete shows just how underappreciated O'Reilly has become. Holy smokes is that a bad deal.

[dudacek]

Long discussion on Trading ROR on WGR 550 this AM, shocking that they talked about the Sabres for more than 15 minutes this AM. White agreed with a tweet that ROR for Galchenyuk, Victor Mete and Montreal’s 2018 2nd. And Howard Simon mentioned he is not worried about trading him within the division.

Value-wise you could make that argument that those are three good pieces.

But I don’t see any way it makes the Sabres better, now or in the future, unless Mete magically turns into Hampus Lindholm.

 

They trade O’Reilly (and Kane) for locker room reasons and the guy they add is Galchenyuk?

Yuck.

Edited June 6, 2018 by dudacek

[TrueBlueGED]

Could be wrong but didn't Bergevin get Drouin to be a center? And continues to make Galchenyuck a winger?

Thinking Drouin is a center is just another example of Bergevin's ineptitude.

[LGR4GM]

A willingness to trade O'Reilly for Galchenyuk and Mete shows just how underappreciated O'Reilly has become. Holy smokes is that a bad deal.

Right?

[Randall Flagg]

Against backup goalies.

I looked back, and if you take injuries to goalies into account, we only didn't face the best goalie on the other team between 18-21 times this year, which corresponds to a starting goalie getting about 61-64 games, which seems to be league average. The injury cases were easy to catch, but there were some times that were hard to judge, which is why I give a range. Once we faced Miller, but it was during a stretch where Miller started 4 or 5 in a row, so I counted him as the starter - they weren't playing their healthy Gibson against anyone because he was sucking. Same thing with the Blues - Allen and Hutton were both "starters" against us, because when we faced Allen he was getting 80% of the games, and when we faced Hutton months later he was getting 80% of the games. The main reason for the range though is because I was 50/50 on what to do about Carolina, who gave their goalies a 50-50 split. 

I will say that Mete is going to be very good, but I do not liek Galchenyuk.

[LTS]

Let's have all kinds of fun...

 

JT and Islanders agree to sign & trade.

 

Tavares, Leddy, 11 & 12 to Buffalo

ROR, Ristolainen, Girgensons to Islanders

 

Buffalo flips 11 & 12 to Arizona to get Brady Tkachuck.

 

I love making up stuff.  I've done no research on this. :)

[shrader]

:lol:

 

Especially now that Snow is toast, guess there aren't many trading partners left. Larsson to Nashville for a 1? ;)

 

 

They took us to town on the Vesey trade.  They're out.

[Brawndo]

A willingness to trade O'Reilly for Galchenyuk and Mete shows just how underappreciated O'Reilly has become. Holy smokes is that a bad deal.

Yep, when Sean Tierney(Analytics Guru) is saying you do not trade players like ROR, the return better cause you to say Holy .

Value-wise you could make that argument that those are three good pieces.

But I don’t see any way it makes the Sabres better, now or in the future, unless Mete magically turns into Hampus Lindholm.

 

They trade O’Reilly (and Kane) for locker room reasons and the guy they add is Galchenyuk?

Yuck.

That’s the rub is the sum greater than the whole. Colorado got 4-5 good pieces for Duchenne, with the biggest possibility being a Top 5 2019 1st Rounder from Ottawa, until that player is selected, Ottawa and Nashville seem to be the beneficiaries of the trade.

 

Now if there is a chemistry issue with the team that can only be solved by moving ROR, that does change the trade landscape

[Randall Flagg]

Yep, when Sean Tierney(Analytics Guru) is saying you do not trade players like ROR, the return better cause you to say Holy ######.

I think this gets at a good point. 

 

The Sabres are in a bad spot on the ice and in the locker room. Exclude the locker room takes from the following analysis. 

 

The Sabres have assets that range from virtually untouchable (1st pick, Eichel) to please god get him off my team (Pominville, Bogosian, Moulson). The most untradable asset is probably Okposo  purely because of contract + health issues. But there's enough in the middle of these extremes to do some real work on the roster. 

 

The issue that 99% of posters seem to have here is that the most talked about guy is by far the best one for us. ROR's reputation is great and his eye test and analytics tell you that not only is he doing amazing, incredibly hard to replicate things given his usage and production, but that he stands to improve a lot as the team around him does, even from where he is right now. Every single player and the team as a whole gets better at hockey when he's out there versus when he's not, and not by a little bit. The same thing happens with Reinhart to a lesser extent. Then there are assets like Kane (gone now) and Ristolainen who were at the opposite end of the spectrum. When you squint at both their games and their analytics, it looks good, the contracts look good. But the team and other teammates do not perform better in general when they are out there. It was a lot better for Risto this season than last (when he was on the ice with ROR in 16-17 he was 5% worse in possession than he was this past season) but in a perceived value trade, we stand to improve with the move. That isn't by any means a guarantee, but the likelihood that the hockey team gets better is higher when the guy you move is more of a drag on play than the guy you choose to keep. This same analysis can probably be applied at lower, less-consequential roster spots like Rodrigues versus Girgensons, or something. 

 

If I'm afraid of anything, it's making a culture-fix move and moving ROR solely because of that, and not improving our team as a result. This is why I want nothing to do with picks, and little to do with prospects who aren't slam dunks like Pettersson. It's why I want two players in return for ROR who are young and who have already demonstrated in the NHL, both statistically and conventionally, that not only is their production good, but their team and teammates are better for playing with them than not. Or, one player who is demonstrably better than ROR. 

Edited June 6, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[LGR4GM]

I think ROR is better than Duchene. At the very least equal. 

 

If Montreal wants ROR I want Galchenyuk, Mete or whatever his name is, 3rd overall pick. 

[pi2000]

I wish JBOT would just come out and say that they're not entertaining the idea of trading ROR.    He does everything out there... the ability for a coach to have a guy like that he can send out in just about any key situation, wether it be PP, PK, critical draw at the end of game or period... no matter who you get in return there will be a large hole to file somewhere in the lineup.    

 

The only way it makes sense is if they get back multiple NHL-level players... at least one that can match/exceed his offensive output, and another that can defend and win faceoffs.     

 

IMO, even with ROR, they need another guy who can defend, win draws and chip in offensively.    They don't have that guy right now and as a result ROR is burned out by Christmas because of a combination of over-use and chronic vegan induced anemia and other vegan related mental and emotional issues.  

 

Studies show that vegetarians demonstrate a less optimistic view of the world around them as opposed to meat-eaters.

[dudacek]

I think this gets at a good point. 

The Sabres are in a bad spot on the ice and in the locker room. Exclude the locker room takes from the following analysis. 

 

The Sabres have assets that range from virtually untouchable (1st pick, Eichel) to please god get him off my team (Pominville, Bogosian, Moulson). The most untradable asset is probably Okposo  purely because of contract + health issues. But there's enough in the middle of these extremes to do some real work on the roster. 

 

The issue that 99% of posters seem to have here is that the most talked about guy is by far the best one for us. ROR's reputation is great and his eye test and analytics tell you that not only is he doing amazing, incredibly hard to replicate things given his usage and production, but that he stands to improve a lot as the team around him does, even from where he is right now. Every single player and the team as a whole gets better at hockey when he's out there versus when he's not, and not by a little bit. The same thing happens with Reinhart to a lesser extent. Then there are assets like Kane (gone now) and Ristolainen who were at the opposite end of the spectrum. When you squint at both their games and their analytics, it looks good, the contracts look good. But the team and other teammates do not perform better in general when they are out there. It was a lot better for Risto this season than last (when he was on the ice with ROR in 16-17 he was 5% worse in possession than he was this past season) but in a perceived value trade, we stand to improve with the move. That isn't by any means a guarantee, but the likelihood that the hockey team gets better is higher when the guy you move is more of a drag on play than the guy you choose to keep. This same analysis can probably be applied at lower, less-consequential roster spots like Rodrigues versus Girgensons, or something. 

If I'm afraid of anything, it's making a culture-fix move and moving ROR solely because of that, and not improving our team as a result. This is why I want nothing to do with picks, and little to do with prospects who aren't slam dunks like Pettersson. It's why I want two players in return for ROR who are young and who have already demonstrated in the NHL, both statistically and conventionally, that not only is their production good, but their team and teammates are better for playing with them than not. Or, one player who is demonstrably better than ROR.

 

And this is why I think ROR May be quietly pushing to be traded.

Trading him makes no sense otherwise.

[Randall Flagg]

And this is why I think ROR May be quietly pushing to be traded.

Trading him makes no sense otherwise.

Which is why Botterill has said he's not doing it, that teams spend years to get to where we are at C, and that while obviously everyone on the last team is available for the right price, it would take huge overpayment :P 

[Radar]

Which is why Botterill has said he's not doing it, that teams spend years to get to where we are at C, and that while obviously everyone on the last team is available for the right price, it would take huge overpayment :P

 

I sincerely hope so. Trading ROR for anything less than overpayment would be upsetting to me. Extremely hard player to replace. Don't want to hear about his being slow look at his play. His end of season comments while good ammo for talk shows I am not overly concerned about but if he's a problem I'll trust our GM to evaluate those things. Gossip amoung men is past off as discussion amount women it would be gossip.

I think this gets at a good point. 

The Sabres are in a bad spot on the ice and in the locker room. Exclude the locker room takes from the following analysis. 

 

The Sabres have assets that range from virtually untouchable (1st pick, Eichel) to please god get him off my team (Pominville, Bogosian, Moulson). The most untradable asset is probably Okposo  purely because of contract + health issues. But there's enough in the middle of these extremes to do some real work on the roster. 

 

The issue that 99% of posters seem to have here is that the most talked about guy is by far the best one for us. ROR's reputation is great and his eye test and analytics tell you that not only is he doing amazing, incredibly hard to replicate things given his usage and production, but that he stands to improve a lot as the team around him does, even from where he is right now. Every single player and the team as a whole gets better at hockey when he's out there versus when he's not, and not by a little bit. The same thing happens with Reinhart to a lesser extent. Then there are assets like Kane (gone now) and Ristolainen who were at the opposite end of the spectrum. When you squint at both their games and their analytics, it looks good, the contracts look good. But the team and other teammates do not perform better in general when they are out there. It was a lot better for Risto this season than last (when he was on the ice with ROR in 16-17 he was 5% worse in possession than he was this past season) but in a perceived value trade, we stand to improve with the move. That isn't by any means a guarantee, but the likelihood that the hockey team gets better is higher when the guy you move is more of a drag on play than the guy you choose to keep. This same analysis can probably be applied at lower, less-consequential roster spots like Rodrigues versus Girgensons, or something. 

If I'm afraid of anything, it's making a culture-fix move and moving ROR solely because of that, and not improving our team as a result. This is why I want nothing to do with picks, and little to do with prospects who aren't slam dunks like Pettersson. It's why I want two players in return for ROR who are young and who have already demonstrated in the NHL, both statistically and conventionally, that not only is their production good, but their team and teammates are better for playing with them than not. Or, one player who is demonstrably better than ROR.

 

Great post.

[dudacek]

Remember the bad old days of Patience Regier? What if he hasn’t really returned.

We have this perception of Botterill as all slow and methodical.

What if he’s truly pissed and seriously blows it up over the next few weeks with blockbusters for O’Reilly and Risto and a couple significant mid-range free gent signings?

 

It’s definitley June and I’m feeling the draft-time buzz.

[GASabresIUFAN]

And this is why I think ROR May be quietly pushing to be traded.

Trading him makes no sense otherwise.

I went and looked at the top 40 scoring centers. 11 are over 30 and none, other then Paul Stastny, are available or make sense contract wise (i’m looking at you Toews). There are 14 24 or younger and none of them are arguably available.

 

That leaves 15 players in their prime. Tavares is a UFA and Karlsson is a RFA. The only one I can see being available to acquire in trade is AZ’s Derek Stepan, who has 3 years left at 6.5. Many of these guys are on bargain contracts like Sequin, Kadri or Couturier. Others are their teams key center like Kuznetsov, Scheifele or Stamkos.

 

So if you trade ROR the available replacements are Stefan or Stastny unless you get Tavares to sign here (which isn’t happening - no way Lou lets him walk). This is at step backwards.

 

By the way, winning cures culture and locker room issues. ROR may be pissed that the team hasn’t moved forward, but he is stuck unless Jbot is willing to move him. All the numbers say this team was improving in all aspects in the second half. If this team continues to progress with the additions of Casey and Dahlin, then I doubt ROR will want to move on.

Edited June 6, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

Crazy, blow-it-up overhaul:

 

O’Reilly, McCabe and Lehner to Calgary for Hamilton, Bennett and John Gillies

Ristolainen and 32 to Edmonton for Klefbom and 10

10, Girgensons and a warm body winger (Smith, O’Regan, Fasching...) to the cap-strapped Jackets for Dubinsky (cap dump) Jenner and Bjorkstrand (pending RFAs)

Sign Beagle, DeHaan and Bernier

Buy out or bury Pominville

 

Bjorkstrand Eichel Reinhart

Rodrigues Mittelstadt Okposo

Bennett Dubinsky Jenner

Bailey Beagle Baptiste

Wilson Larsson Olafsson

Nylander Asplund Pu

 

Scandella Hamilton

Klefbom Dahlin

DeHaan Bogosian

Pilut Nelson

Guhle Fedun

 

Ullmark Bernier Gillies Johansen

 

Losing O’Reilly hurts; hopefully Dubinsky Beagle and/or Jenner can rebound enough to pick up some of the tough minutes.

Definitely changes the room and improves depth, especially on defence.

Dubinsky’s deal is horrific, but he fills a hole and that’s the price we have to pay to get Bjorkstrand and Jenner.

Edited June 7, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

Love stuff like that. 

 

 

Separately, I wonder if we'll ever have a chance at getting an elite winger for Jack after Panarin hits free agency. 

[thewookie1]

Flagg, would the team be better if we acquired Pesce and Draisital for ROR and Risto respectfully?

[SabresBillsFan]

Long discussion on Trading ROR on WGR 550 this AM, shocking that they talked about the Sabres for more than 15 minutes this AM. White agreed with a tweet that ROR for Galchenyuk, Victor Mete and Montreal’s 2018 2nd. And Howard Simon mentioned he is not worried about trading him within the division.

I would do that trade. I thought Galchenyuk was the best player on the ice for Montreal when he was here in Vegas. O’Reilly seems like he lost interest in hockey playing with Buffalo.

[Randall Flagg]

Flagg, would the team be better if we acquired Pesce and Draisital for ROR and Risto respectfully?

Nobody knows for sure, but I would likely do that.