qwksndmonster Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Who's to say that this season is a floor? Who's to say that if he signs a $45MM contract, he doesn't get fat and stay up until 3:00 AM every night getting baked and playing xbox? He's 21 and has probably lived a pretty entitled athlete life. I'd say the number of kids who are mature enough at that age to stay dedicated and levelheaded after signing a contract guaranteeing them that kind of cash is a pretty small percentage. Imma flip it around on you: do you think GMTM is going to give him a long-term deal? My point in bringing that up was simply that it's hard to rely on that trainwreck year as a reliable indicator of what kind of player Risto is and will develop into. So are we not going to give Sam and Jack big contracts because they're gonna become fat lazy stoners? The dude has proved his mettle at every level. And why is a bad season not a good indicator of Risto's play? We still got to see his skills on display. And in a better season with a real coach he improved. I'm not seeing any evidence supporting Risto skepticism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 It only works to Risto's advantage if he signs a bridge contract. Even a bridge contract will be lucrative. Then he cashes in for the term and the big bucks. Meanwhile, GMTM gets to play the short-term fat contract card he wants to (i assume he has someone in mind since he talked about it) and in the interim the cap goes up so we can afford to give Risto the kitchen sink at the right time. If this is the way it plays out, Risto gets his due, and is a loyal team guy in doing it this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 It only works to Risto's advantage if he signs a bridge contract. Even a bridge contract will be lucrative. Then he cashes in for the term and the big bucks. Meanwhile, GMTM gets to play the short-term fat contract card he wants to (i assume he has someone in mind since he talked about it) and in the interim the cap goes up so we can afford to give Risto the kitchen sink at the right time. If this is the way it plays out, Risto gets his due, and is a loyal team guy in doing it this way. I would definitely prefer the LLT contract, but am fully expecting a bridge deal now. I also expect it'll bite the Sabres in the butt down the road. If TO can punt Princess Phaneuf without taking a bath, worst case is the Sabres trade him in 3 years in a Myers sort of deal IMHO if his development doesn't continue as we expect. Don't know if he ever ends up in the Norris discussion, but I fully expect him to be a true #2 & possibly a #1. Lock that up. This team has never had a TRUE #1. They MIGHT be developing 1. Getting him at anything under $6/ will look like a bargain in 3 years & a massive bargain in 7. It'd be like having Zhitnik locked up for $3/ in the mid-late 00's in the most probable case. That would've been enough to put the 2 post-lockout squads in a parade, again, IMHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 Who's to say that this season is a floor? Who's to say that if he signs a $45MM contract, he doesn't get fat and stay up until 3:00 AM every night getting baked and playing xbox? He's 21 and has probably lived a pretty entitled athlete life. I'd say the number of kids who are mature enough at that age to stay dedicated and levelheaded after signing a contract guaranteeing them that kind of cash is a pretty small percentage. Imma flip it around on you: do you think GMTM is going to give him a long-term deal? My point in bringing that up was simply that it's hard to rely on that trainwreck year as a reliable indicator of what kind of player Risto is and will develop into. I didn't say it was a floor. I was aiming for the beginning of an expected value analysis. So again I ask, if what we saw this season is what we get, where do you think he slots in on a good team? To this point, absolutely nothing in his career to this point indicates he's the type to get a big deal and take a nap. He's the guy, at the ripe age of 20, who went to the GM of the team during the last tank season and asked WTF the plan was because he was sick of losing. While anything is possible, I'd be utterly shocked if a big deal blew up in our face because he got lazy. Yes, I think Murray goes long term with him. It only works to Risto's advantage if he signs a bridge contract. Even a bridge contract will be lucrative. Then he cashes in for the term and the big bucks. Meanwhile, GMTM gets to play the short-term fat contract card he wants to (i assume he has someone in mind since he talked about it) and in the interim the cap goes up so we can afford to give Risto the kitchen sink at the right time. If this is the way it plays out, Risto gets his due, and is a loyal team guy in doing it this way. I don't believe this to be true. Setting aside injury or stagnated development, think about the ages. He signs a 6 year deal now for more dollars than a 3 year bridge deal, then he's hitting UFA at 27, perfectly primed for a second big deal. If he goes bridge deal, his second deal may be for more than the 6 year deal, but then he'd hit UFA in his 30s, and that contract is likely less. Could go lots of ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 Sorry True, but when did Risto do that last season? I have no memory of that. Not saying it sent happen, just wondering Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 Sorry True, but when did Risto do that last season? I have no memory of that. Not saying it sent happen, just wondering December-ish? Both Hamilton and Coller reported on it, IIRC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 December-ish? Both Hamilton and Coller reported on it, IIRC. That's badass. I love Risto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 The guy does not like to lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 I didn't say it was a floor. I was aiming for the beginning of an expected value analysis. So again I ask, if what we saw this season is what we get, where do you think he slots in on a good team? To this point, absolutely nothing in his career to this point indicates he's the type to get a big deal and take a nap. He's the guy, at the ripe age of 20, who went to the GM of the team during the last tank season and asked WTF the plan was because he was sick of losing. While anything is possible, I'd be utterly shocked if a big deal blew up in our face because he got lazy. Yes, I think Murray goes long term with him. I don't believe this to be true. Setting aside injury or stagnated development, think about the ages. He signs a 6 year deal now for more dollars than a 3 year bridge deal, then he's hitting UFA at 27, perfectly primed for a second big deal. If he goes bridge deal, his second deal may be for more than the 6 year deal, but then he'd hit UFA in his 30s, and that contract is likely less. Could go lots of ways. $25 wager with proceeds to charity chosen by the winner? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 I would go 8 x 6.5 aav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 Can I get in on that action? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 Can I get in on that action? Yes indeedly! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 Yes indeedly!You're on! 25$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 $25 wager with proceeds to charity chosen by the winner? You and 11 are going to bankrupt me if I'm wrong! Luckily, I'm rarely wrong :angel: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 You're on! 25$ You and 11 are going to bankrupt me if I'm wrong! Luckily, I'm rarely wrong :angel: OK gents. Just to be clear, this is my understanding of the bet: Risto signs an extension for 3 years or less -- I win Risto signs an extension for 4 years or more -- you win Yes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 You're making it sound like the players and agents will just let a team routinely bend them over financially. And what use is draft pick compensation for a team trying to contend? If you think a player is going to continue to grow, there's no reason not to sign a longer term deal. Bridge deals should be reserved for players there are real questions about. Risto? Nah. No . That's why I said we need to lock him up for 8 years and not offer him a 6 year deal that only buys 1 or 2 of his UFA years. I'm arguing for locking him up for his entire 20's not letting him reach unrestricted free agency at 27 or 28. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 Sounds good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 My whole point is don't half ass it with a 5 or 6 year deal. Lock him up for the full 8 years that you are allowed to under the CBA. Don't just give him a big money contract that eats up 1 or 2 UFA years that gives him the opportunity to reach free agency in his late 20's. If you're going to risk losing him in his prime then you might as well nickel and dime him with bridge deals because you're going to run the risk of losing him anyway. He already has 3 seasons accrued in the NHL. A 5 year deal only buys up 1 year of his UFA eligible career and a 6 year deal eats up 2. If we can't lock him up for the full 8 years then we should sign him to a 3 year bridge so he'll still have one more season as an RFA to try to get him signed long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasmus_ Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 My whole point is don't half ass it with a 5 or 6 year deal. Lock him up for the full 8 years that you are allowed to under the CBA. Don't just give him a big money contract that eats up 1 or 2 UFA years that gives him the opportunity to reach free agency in his late 20's. If you're going to risk losing him in his prime then you might as well nickel and dime him with bridge deals because you're going to run the risk of losing him anyway. He already has 3 seasons accrued in the NHL. A 5 year deal only buys up 1 year of his UFA eligible career and a 6 year deal eats up 2. If we can't lock him up for the full 8 years then we should sign him to a 3 year bridge so he'll still have one more season as an RFA to try to get him signed long term. I agree with that point as well. He's a complete RHD. He's got more room to grow into his offense and he's still getting all the things down. I would totally lock him up for 8 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 If I can sign Risto to an 8yr deal in the 5.5mil range... done. If he starts to suck you can trade him but this is a kid who wants to be on Finnish national teams and wants to win a cup. I think he can handle that long term of a deal without crashing... into a tim horton's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 OK gents. Just to be clear, this is my understanding of the bet: Risto signs an extension for 3 years or less -- I win Risto signs an extension for 4 years or more -- you win Yes? ..and if he gets traded, I win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted June 3, 2016 Report Share Posted June 3, 2016 If I can sign Risto to an 8yr deal in the 5.5mil range... done. If he starts to suck you can trade him but this is a kid who wants to be on Finnish national teams and wants to win a cup. I think he can handle that long term of a deal without crashing... into a tim horton's Zing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted June 27, 2016 Report Share Posted June 27, 2016 Something better be happening in here today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted June 27, 2016 Report Share Posted June 27, 2016 Something better be happening in here today It's happening! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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