Huckleberry Posted July 4, 2016 Report Share Posted July 4, 2016 8x 6.5 seems doable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted July 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 5, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 I realize these things take time but I'm hoping this negotiation doesn't drag out too much longer. What are we thinking? 6 year deal? 8 year deal? Bridge? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 I realize these things take time but I'm hoping this negotiation doesn't drag out too much longer. What are we thinking? 6 year deal? 8 year deal? Bridge? We should either go the full 8 years or a 3 year bridge and nothing in between. An 8 year deal is my total preference because it locks him up for his entire 20's. A 3 year deal would still leave him as an RFA at the end of the contract so we don't risk losing him. I have no interest in a 5 or 6 year deal that only buys 1 or 2 UFA years. That sets him up for a chance to lose him in his prime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 We should either go the full 8 years or a 3 year bridge and nothing in between. An 8 year deal is my total preference because it locks him up for his entire 20's. A 3 year deal would still leave him as an RFA at the end of the contract so we don't risk losing him. I have no interest in a 5 or 6 year deal that only buys 1 or 2 UFA years. That sets him up for a chance to lose him in his prime. Yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 We should either go the full 8 years or a 3 year bridge and nothing in between. An 8 year deal is my total preference because it locks him up for his entire 20's. A 3 year deal would still leave him as an RFA at the end of the contract so we don't risk losing him. I have no interest in a 5 or 6 year deal that only buys 1 or 2 UFA years. That sets him up for a chance to lose him in his prime. I agree. Would rather go 8 years to lock him up. Standard out there seems to be 6 though based on similar deals this summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 I agree. Would rather go 8 years to lock him up. Standard out there seems to be 6 though based on similar deals this summer. If they offer him a 6 year deal I'll be bummed. I'd rather give him an Ekblad or Hedman type contract than a Seth Jones one, especially since it should still come in short of that (I'm thinking 8 years for between 6 and 7 million per year would be agreeable by his camp). Pay a little more now to have him locked in for his entire prime. He'd probably get a less lucrative 3rd contract from us that way too since I imagine a 28 year old UFA Ristolainen would be more expensive than a 30 year old UFA Ristolainen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 If they offer him a 6 year deal I'll be bummed. I'd rather give him an Ekblad or Hedman type contract than a Seth Jones one, especially since it should still come in short of that (I'm thinking 8 years for between 6 and 7 million per year would be agreeable by his camp). Pay a little more now to have him locked in for his entire prime. He'd probably get a less lucrative 3rd contract from us that way too since I imagine a 28 year old UFA Ristolainen would be more expensive than a 30 year old UFA Ristolainen. I do agree with the 8 years but wouldn't want to go near $7 mil per. I would do 8 years @ $6 mil. His market seems pretty defined at around 6 years at $5 to $5.5. So I wouldn't want to go an extra $1 to $1.5 mil every year of the deal to get two additional UFA years locked up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 I do agree with the 8 years but wouldn't want to go near $7 mil per. I would do 8 years @ $6 mil. His market seems pretty defined at around 6 years at $5 to $5.5. So I wouldn't want to go an extra $1 to $1.5 mil every year of the deal to get two additional UFA years locked up. He might not be willing to do 8 years at 6 million per though. In that scenario would be bend and give him a shorter term or would you scrap it and go for the bridge deal? Personally I'd give him between 6 and 7 (6.5 million by 8 years) and if that's not enough I'd opt or the bridge. Given the contract that Hedman just signed he's not likely to get a deal bigger than that after 3 more seasons so I see less risk in a bridge, especially since he'd be an rfa not a ufa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 I think that the Sabres believe he is their #1 D for the long-term. Also, he is just a kid and is about to strike it really rich, therefore, he will be more than willing to leave a bit of $ on the table, after all what's a few million between friends. Prediction ... 8 years at $50 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 Based on some solid comps I think his market value is about 6 years at $5.25. So that works out to $31.5 over the life of the deal. If he were to sign at 8 years $7 mil then that works out to $56 mil over the life of the deal. So we're paying essentially $12.25 mil per year for the last two years. If we go 8 years at $6 mil per then it would be similar to 6 years at $5.25 and the last two at $8 mil per which seems very fair to me. After running this exercise I wouldn't really want to go higher then $6 mil per on an 8 year deal.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 (edited) He hasn't proved he's worth an Ekblad, Hedman, or even Krug or Jones type of deal.... yet. Not even close. I'd go 6 at 4.5, or 3 at 5. A bridge makes more sense for him if he believes he still has more room to grow. It's fascinating to see how highly folks on here think of his game. He's a good young prospect, not anywhere near an all star like these other contracts being used as examples. Can he get there?Sure,su mabe, but he's still a few years away. Edited July 7, 2016 by pi2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 I think that the Sabres believe he is their #1 D for the long-term. Also, he is just a kid and is about to strike it really rich, therefore, he will be more than willing to leave a bit of $ on the table, after all what's a few million between friends. Prediction ... 8 years at $50 million. This is probably fair but the most I would want to go up to. He hasn't proved he's worth an Ekblad, Hedman, or even Krug or Jones type of deal.... yet. Not even close. I'd go 6 at 4.5, or 3 at 5. A bridge makes more sense for him if he believes he still has more room to grow. Don't the bridge, shorter term deal usually cost less per year since it's all RFA years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 I think that the Sabres believe he is their #1 D for the long-term. Also, he is just a kid and is about to strike it really rich, therefore, he will be more than willing to leave a bit of $ on the table, after all what's a few million between friends. Prediction ... 8 years at $50 million. Deal. You draw up the contract, sir, and I'll email it to his agent and GMTM and tell them to go ahead and sign it. We'll have this done in a jiffy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 Deal. You draw up the contract, sir, and I'll email it to his agent and GMTM and tell them to go ahead and sign it. We'll have this done in a jiffy. You don't give a guy who's only played 2 full seasons in the NHL and is a -54, an 8 year deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 You don't give a guy who's only played 2 full seasons in the NHL and is a -54, an 8 year deal. My mistake, sir. I didn't realize you make the rules. Instead of overpaying him a little now in the hopes that it will turn out to be a bargain in the future would you suggest a 4 year $16 million deal instead? I bet his agent would jump at that and then we can watch him become a UFA at 25 and sign with somebody else. A 3 year deal or an 8 year deal are the best options. Anything in between is what doesn't make sense and to get him locked up for 8 years we're going to have to overpay in the beginning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 My mistake, sir. I didn't realize you make the rules. Instead of overpaying him a little now in the hopes that it will turn out to be a bargain in the future would you suggest a 4 year $16 million deal instead? I bet his agent would jump at that and then we can watch him become a UFA at 25 and sign with somebody else. A 3 year deal or an 8 year deal are the best options. Anything in between is what doesn't make sense and to get him locked up for 8 years we're going to have to overpay in the beginning. He hasn't done anything to deserve an 8-year deal. IMO you can't hand out long term deals to unproven guys. You save those contracts for proven core guys, not somebody who you think might grow into one. There is still a lot of room for Risto to improve, can he fullfil his potential? Maybe, but I'm not investing 8 years in the guy if he's already plateaued. If he wants term, go up to 6 at a reasonable cost for what he's proven his worth is to this point. Giving him a shorter bridge at a higher value protects the franchise down the road if he doesn't reach his potential as a 1A type of defenseman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 He hasn't done anything to deserve an 8-year deal. IMO you can't hand out long term deals to unproven guys. You save those contracts for proven core guys, not somebody who you think might grow into one. There is still a lot of room for Risto to improve, can he fullfil his potential? Maybe, but I'm not investing 8 years in the guy if he's already plateaued. If he wants term, go up to 6 at a reasonable cost for what he's proven his worth is to this point. Giving him a shorter bridge at a higher value protects the franchise down the road if he doesn't reach his potential as a 1A type of defenseman. I still think 8 years or 3 is the way to go. I have no interest in a 6 year contract that only buys 2 UFA years and allows him to become a UFA at 27 or 28. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 I think that the Sabres believe he is their #1 D for the long-term. Also, he is just a kid and is about to strike it really rich, therefore, he will be more than willing to leave a bit of $ on the table, after all what's a few million between friends. Prediction ... 8 years at $50 million. That's why they hire agents... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 He hasn't proved he's worth an Ekblad, Hedman, or even Krug or Jones type of deal.... yet. Not even close. I'd go 6 at 4.5, or 3 at 5. A bridge makes more sense for him if he believes he still has more room to grow. It's fascinating to see how highly folks on here think of his game. He's a good young prospect, not anywhere near an all star like these other contracts being used as examples. Can he get there?Sure,su mabe, but he's still a few years away. Nine out of 10 GMs would take him over Tyson Barrie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted July 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 (edited) He hasn't proved he's worth an Ekblad, Hedman, or even Krug or Jones type of deal.... yet. Not even close. I'd go 6 at 4.5, or 3 at 5. A bridge makes more sense for him if he believes he still has more room to grow. It's fascinating to see how highly folks on here think of his game. He's a good young prospect, not anywhere near an all star like these other contracts being used as examples. Can he get there?Sure,su mabe, but he's still a few years away. I think Rasmus is superior to Jones. Also he's played 194 games, a prospect he is not. You don't give a guy who's only played 2 full seasons in the NHL and is a -54, an 8 year deal.The -54 thing is fairly irrelevant. Especially on a Sabres team devoid of talent designed not to win. Edited July 7, 2016 by LGR4GM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodbuster Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 You don't give a guy who's only played 2 full seasons in the NHL and is a -54, an 8 year deal.half of his games were played among a team that was built to lose comfortably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 8x6.5 I can live with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 I think Rasmus is superior to Jones. Also he's played 194 games, a prospect he is not. The -54 thing is fairly irrelevant. Especially on a Sabres team devoid of talent designed not to win. Good point. However, IMO Jones has a higher ceiling. Nine out of 10 GMs would take him over Tyson Barrie. I highly doubt this. Defensively they're on par, perhaps a slight nod to Rasmus, but he can't hold a candle to Barrie's skating and offensive prowess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 Good point. However, IMO Jones has a higher ceiling. I highly doubt this. Defensively they're on par, perhaps a slight nod to Rasmus, but he can't hold a candle to Barrie's skating and offensive prowess. So Risto's 41 points last season to Barrie's 49, when Risto is 3 years younger, is "can't hold a candle to" in your book? So he's likely going to match or surpass Barrie for offense in the coming years, and he's already better defensively. I can see the argument for Ristolainen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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