Ristolainen Signed, 6yrs 5.4mil per

[LGR4GM]

WGR posted a story about our young #1 defender and it got me thinking... when the hell is he getting signed and why hasn't it happened?  Now I know RFA's aren't always a priority but I would offer sheet him, if I were on another team. I say sign him to a 6 year 36million dollar deal. It is fair for all involved and it locks him up long term. 

 

 

 

http://www.wgr550.com/Sabres-Ristolainen-has-already-stepped-into-the-nu/22762974

 

It seemed like he struggled with the puck sometimes. He tried to rush or force plays and he’d then be in trouble. Ristolainen said, “I struggled everywhere. After the good 40 games, I just wanted to be better and do more things and I was kind of pushing so I think that was one big thing.”
 
The kid surprised me when I asked him if he learned a lot from those first 40 games. His answer in my mind showed the maturity we’ve seen in his growth, “Yes of course, but I think you learn when you struggle too, I think if you play well it doesn’t matter, you learn after every game, every week and every month.”

 

Edited October 11, 2016 by LGR4GM

[Derrico]

Ya I'd like to see this happen sooner than later.  Two good comps in my view who signed recently are:

 

Olli Maatta: 6 year deal @ $4.083 mil per

Morgan Reilly: 6 year deal @ $5.0 mil per

 

Career Numbers

GP G A P Pts/G

Risto: 194 19 46 65 0.335

Maata: 165 16 41 57 0.345

Reilly: 236 19 73 92 0.390

 

Avg TOI last year

 

Risto: 25:17

Maata: 19:58

Reilly: 23:14

 

So Risto is playing a couple of more minutes on average then Reilly and 5 more minutes per game than Maata but producing slightly less points per game then both.  Although IMO Risto has a higher upside then both of those players.  I would hope we could sign Risto similar to Reilly at 6 years $30 million.  If Risto is wanting $5.5 or $6 per I would be fine at $5.5 but would hope I don't have to go right to $6 based on these two comps.

[Drunkard]

I'd be willing to pay him more than $5 million is he was willing to sign for the full 8 years. 8 years for $52 million (cap hit of $6.5 million) and front loaded as much as it's allowed in case we decide to move him later and at that point we'd have him locked up for his entire 20's. Why sign him for 5 or 6 years and risk losing him at 27 or 28? To save a few million on his cap hit? Lock him up for as long as possible if he's part of the core going forward.

[TrueBlueGED]

Ya I'd like to see this happen sooner than later. Two good comps in my view who signed recently are:

 

Olli Maatta: 6 year deal @ $4.083 mil per

Morgan Reilly: 6 year deal @ $5.0 mil per

 

Career Numbers

GP G A P Pts/G

Risto: 194 19 46 65 0.335

Maata: 165 16 41 57 0.345

Reilly: 236 19 73 92 0.390

 

Avg TOI last year

 

Risto: 25:17

Maata: 19:58

Reilly: 23:14

 

So Risto is playing a couple of more minutes on average then Reilly and 5 more minutes per game than Maata but producing slightly less points per game then both. Although IMO Risto has a higher upside then both of those players. I would hope we could sign Risto similar to Reilly at 6 years $30 million. If Risto is wanting $5.5 or $6 per I would be fine at $5.5 but would hope I don't have to go right to $6 based on these two comps.

The thing I'd point to is Risto's contract year was considerably better than either of them--closer to Hamilton's really. Wouldn't be surprised if it's closer to 6 than 5.

I'd be willing to pay him more than $5 million is he was willing to sign for the full 8 years. 8 years for $52 million (cap hit of $6.5 million) and front loaded as much as it's allowed in case we decide to move him later and at that point we'd have him locked up for his entire 20's. Why sign him for 5 or 6 years and risk losing him at 27 or 28? To save a few million on his cap hit? Lock him up for as long as possible if he's part of the core going forward.

Because then for his next contract you don't have to be as worried about him falling off half way through. If we sign him until he's 30, then we'll be in the Flames' situation with Giordano where the back half of that deal is gonna be mighty ugly.

[Drunkard]

The thing I'd point to is Risto's contract year was considerably better than either of them--closer to Hamilton's really. Wouldn't be surprised if it's closer to 6 than 5.

 

Because then for his next contract you don't have to be as worried about him falling off half way through. If we sign him until he's 30, then we'll be in the Flames' situation with Giordano where the back half of that deal is gonna be mighty ugly.

 

So you offer him a shorter contract at 30 or you let him walk or trade his expiring contract. With any luck you've got younger replacements ready to step in and you still have him locked up for his entire prime. Let another team who is desperate for an upgrade to their defense (like we are now on the left hand side) overpay him for his declining years.

[Derrico]

The thing I'd point to is Risto's contract year was considerably better than either of them--closer to Hamilton's really. Wouldn't be surprised if it's closer to 6 than 5.

I thought his year was similar to Reilly last season.  They each had 9 goals and Risto had 5 more assists.  I haven't watched Reilly enough to gauge how well his defensive game has been but Risto has had his ups and downs.  More ups then downs but there was a stretch in the second half that was pretty ugly.  I'd be good with 6 years at $5.5 per. 

 

I'll agree with you Drunkard that I would rather an 8 year deal (although closer to $6mil per for that) but those don't seem to be handed out to players this age.  Maybe the player doesn't want so many UFA years being eaten into.

[nfreeman]

I may be in the minority here, but I'd rather give Risto a bridge deal than a fat 8-year contract.  He's only 21 -- we have no idea whether he'll continue to improve, how he'll respond to the pressure of being the #1 defenseman on a playoff team and (hopefully!) cup contender, etc.

 

He has 4 more full seasons to play before being eligible for UFA.  I would give him a 3-year deal and make him prove that he's the stud we hope he is.  When that deal expires, he'll still be an RFA and the Sabres can control the situation and, if he's worth it, give him a fat contract that will cover pretty much all of his prime.

[That Aud Smell]

I may be in the minority here, but I'd rather give Risto a bridge deal than a fat 8-year contract.  He's only 21 -- we have no idea whether he'll continue to improve, how he'll respond to the pressure of being the #1 defenseman on a playoff team and (hopefully!) cup contender, etc.

 

He has 4 more full seasons to play before being eligible for UFA.  I would give him a 3-year deal and make him prove that he's the stud we hope he is.  When that deal expires, he'll still be an RFA and the Sabres can control the situation and, if he's worth it, give him a fat contract that will cover pretty much all of his prime.

 

i don't want an 8-year deal. nor do i want a 3-year (and nor will he, i suspect). 6 seems about right, and is in line with what his comparables have been getting.

[pi2000]

I may be in the minority here, but I'd rather give Risto a bridge deal than a fat 8-year contract.  He's only 21 -- we have no idea whether he'll continue to improve, how he'll respond to the pressure of being the #1 defenseman on a playoff team and (hopefully!) cup contender, etc.

 

He has 4 more full seasons to play before being eligible for UFA.  I would give him a 3-year deal and make him prove that he's the stud we hope he is.  When that deal expires, he'll still be an RFA and the Sabres can control the situation and, if he's worth it, give him a fat contract that will cover pretty much all of his prime.

 

I agree.

 

Don't forget, Murray did not draft Risto.   We have no idea what he thinks of him as a player.

 

from http://www.diebytheblade.com/2016/4/11/11410328/buffalo-sabres-season-ending-press-conference-highlights-news

 

"Murray was asked about a contract for Rasmus Ristolainen, and said the team was not sure whether they would like to go for a bridge deal or something more long-term, it would depend on what Risto's camp wanted.  Murray also mentioned that a bridge deal with a smaller cap number might allow them to add a big player in free agency on a short-term deal."

[qwksndmonster]

Now's not really the time for a big short term FA deal, though. That'd be more appropriate 2 or 3 years down the road when we're contending.

[Norcal]

I may be in the minority here, but I'd rather give Risto a bridge deal than a fat 8-year contract.  He's only 21 -- we have no idea whether he'll continue to improve, how he'll respond to the pressure of being the #1 defenseman on a playoff team and (hopefully!) cup contender, etc.

 

He has 4 more full seasons to play before being eligible for UFA.  I would give him a 3-year deal and make him prove that he's the stud we hope he is.  When that deal expires, he'll still be an RFA and the Sabres can control the situation and, if he's worth it, give him a fat contract that will cover pretty much all of his prime.

I think this is where i'm at in regards to Risto also. I like him fine and could see them doing an 8 yr contract around $44 mil but a bridge deal would give him more time to figure out what kind of player he'll be and save a couple mil on the cap for other contracts or additions. GMTM will need to get it right.

[That Aud Smell]

Agreed, Liger.

 

In fact, if I'm Risto, don't I bet on myself a bit, take a 5-year bridge deal, with the expectation that I am just going to cash in when the time comes for my next contract? if he signs for 8 years now, he's arguably hedging on his own ceiling and development.

[qwksndmonster]

I think a big deal now is a necessary gamble to have the extra cap space for Sam and Jack.  I'm pretty sure Rasmus will develop into a capable #1 defender.  Worst case scenario is that he only becomes an offensive #2.

[nfreeman]

Agreed, Liger.

 

In fact, if I'm Risto, don't I bet on myself a bit, take a 5-year bridge deal, with the expectation that I am just going to cash in when the time comes for my next contract? if he signs for 8 years now, he's arguably hedging on his own ceiling and development.

 

I don't think the Sabres would be interested in a 5-year deal.  I'd guess that if they want a deal longer than 3 years, they'll want to "buy" more than one year of Risto's UFA period.

 

I think a big deal now is a necessary gamble to have the extra cap space for Sam and Jack.  I'm pretty sure Rasmus will develop into a capable #1 defender.  Worst case scenario is that he only becomes an offensive #2.

 

I think a lot of people (including me) thought this about Myers.  Now, I still like Myers, but I definitely wouldn't give him the fat 10-year contract that DR gave him (or even a 5-year contract for that matter).

[qwksndmonster]

I think a lot of people (including me) thought this about Myers.  Now, I still like Myers, but I definitely wouldn't give him the fat 10-year contract that DR gave him (or even a 5-year contract for that matter).

Risto has more than just an impressive rookie campaign, though.  He's had a much more linear progression (and was also a more highly touted prospect, going at #8 in a loaded draft).  If he flames out like Myers did, we might be cursed. (I mean Leino, Hodgson, and Moulson all going from scoring 40+ to not even being NHLers? Wtf!)

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't think the Sabres would be interested in a 5-year deal. I'd guess that if they want a deal longer than 3 years, they'll want to "buy" more than one year of Risto's UFA period.

 

 

I think a lot of people (including me) thought this about Myers. Now, I still like Myers, but I definitely wouldn't give him the fat 10-year contract that DR gave him (or even a 5-year contract for that matter).

Sure, Myers is the downside of betting on development. Subban is the downside of going on a bridge deal--Montreal is locked in to a contract about $3M more per year than they'd have paid had they gone long term early.

 

At some point you have to take some risk on long term deals for your young players, or you're going to be in cap hell sooner than later. I think Risto, with his work ethic and the year over year development he's shown to this point, is a really good young player to bet on. Myers never reached his rookie year highs whereas Risto has shown major growth every year.

[Derrico]

Agreed, Liger.

 

In fact, if I'm Risto, don't I bet on myself a bit, take a 5-year bridge deal, with the expectation that I am just going to cash in when the time comes for my next contract? if he signs for 8 years now, he's arguably hedging on his own ceiling and development.

 

 

I don't think the Sabres would be interested in a 5-year deal.  I'd guess that if they want a deal longer than 3 years, they'll want to "buy" more than one year of Risto's UFA period.

 

This.  I doubt the Sabres would want 5 years.  It's either a 2/3 year bridge deal or 6/7 year deal IMO.

[Drunkard]

I thought his year was similar to Reilly last season.  They each had 9 goals and Risto had 5 more assists.  I haven't watched Reilly enough to gauge how well his defensive game has been but Risto has had his ups and downs.  More ups then downs but there was a stretch in the second half that was pretty ugly.  I'd be good with 6 years at $5.5 per. 

 

I'll agree with you Drunkard that I would rather an 8 year deal (although closer to $6mil per for that) but those don't seem to be handed out to players this age.  Maybe the player doesn't want so many UFA years being eaten into.

 

I just don't see much point in offering him or any good player a 6 year deal after their ELC expires. At that point you aren't buying hardly any UFA years anyway so you might as well nickel and dime them with short term qualifying offers to save cap space and then try to lock them up at 25 or 26. Sure you run the risk of their production exploding off the charts and a team offer sheeting them but at least you'd get compensation if you let them walk at the point. Setting them up for free agency right in their prime seems like a bad idea. At least locking them up for 8 years after their ELC's you get all of their prime years.

Edited June 2, 2016 by Drunkard

[TrueBlueGED]

I just don't see much point in offering him or any good player a 6 year deal after their ELC expires. At that point you aren't buying hardly any UFA years anyway so you might as well nickel and dime them with short term qualifying offers to save cap space and then try to lock them up at 25 or 26. Sure you run the risk of their production exploding on the charts and a team offer sheeting them but at least you'd get compensation if you let them walk at the point. Setting them up for free agency right in their prime seems like a bad idea. At least locking them up for 8 years after their ELC's you get all of their prime years.

You're making it sound like the players and agents will just let a team routinely bend them over financially. And what use is draft pick compensation for a team trying to contend? If you think a player is going to continue to grow, there's no reason not to sign a longer term deal. Bridge deals should be reserved for players there are real questions about. Risto? Nah.

[nfreeman]

You're making it sound like the players and agents will just let a team routinely bend them over financially. And what use is draft pick compensation for a team trying to contend? If you think a player is going to continue to grow, there's no reason not to sign a longer term deal. Bridge deals should be reserved for players there are real questions about. Risto? Nah.

 

I just think you are assuming too much about a player with 2 full NHL seasons under his belt, one of which was one of the worst seasons any team has ever had and the other of which was still well out of the playoffs.  And I don't see any need to make that assumption. 

 

Yes, PK got more than he would've gotten, but he's still an elite player, and they didn't have to pay him until he'd put up 5 solid NHL seasons -- and just about any team in the NHL would take PK and his contract.  OTOH, there are very few teams that would take Myers' contract right now (and there would be even fewer if the salary for the rest of the term matched the cap hit).

[thewookie1]

Give him 7/8 years at 5.75 and call it a day.

 

None of this 3 year bridge nonsense, all that will do is likely cost us a boatload in the cap and cost us other players. Myers does not equate with Risto. So don't be terrified to commit due to the last one being a failure. It would be a humongous blunder to sign him to a shorter contract, watch him explode and then have to pay him 9 or 10 mil a year along with Reinhart and Eichel only a couple years later.

 

Risto is definitely a good Dman, at worst he's a #3 guy who 5.75mil would seem higher, but would be less so as the years go by and the cap eventually rises again. 

Edited June 2, 2016 by thewookie1

[TrueBlueGED]

I just think you are assuming too much about a player with 2 full NHL seasons under his belt, one of which was one of the worst seasons any team has ever had and the other of which was still well out of the playoffs. And I don't see any need to make that assumption.

 

Yes, PK got more than he would've gotten, but he's still an elite player, and they didn't have to pay him until he'd put up 5 solid NHL seasons -- and just about any team in the NHL would take PK and his contract. OTOH, there are very few teams that would take Myers' contract right now (and there would be even fewer if the salary for the rest of the term matched the cap hit).

Let me ask it this way: if Risto completely stagnates and what you saw this season is what you get, where do you think he slots in on the roster of a good team? 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pair? Edited June 2, 2016 by TrueBlueGED

[qwksndmonster]

I don't understand what Risto being on a terrible team has to do with him. Was he supposed to single handedly bring us into the promised land? I think he performed admirably with no help around him whatsoever.

[nfreeman]

Let me ask it this way: if Risto completely stagnates and what you saw this season is what you get, where do you think he slots in on the roster of a good team? 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pair?

 

Who's to say that this season is a floor?  Who's to say that if he signs a $45MM contract, he doesn't get fat and stay up until 3:00 AM every night getting baked and playing xbox?

 

He's 21 and has probably lived a pretty entitled athlete life.  I'd say the number of kids who are mature enough at that age to stay dedicated and levelheaded after signing a contract guaranteeing them that kind of cash is a pretty small percentage.

 

Imma flip it around on you:  do you think GMTM is going to give him a long-term deal? 

 

I don't understand what Risto being on a terrible team has to do with him. Was he supposed to single handedly bring us into the promised land? I think he performed admirably with no help around him whatsoever.

 

My point in bringing that up was simply that it's hard to rely on that trainwreck year as a reliable indicator of what kind of player Risto is and will develop into.

[Thorny]

You're making it sound like the players and agents will just let a team routinely bend them over financially. And what use is draft pick compensation for a team trying to contend? If you think a player is going to continue to grow, there's no reason not to sign a longer term deal. Bridge deals should be reserved for players there are real questions about. Risto? Nah.

 

Gotta agree. I don't have doubts about Ristolainen long term. I'd say the likelihood of him being worth a decent, long term contract now turning into a big overpayment due to stagnation, is considerably less than the likelihood of having to commit a lot more to him in a couple years because we low ball and bridge him now.