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McKenzie speculates that Stamkos will end up in Buffalo


Brawndo

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Logistically if he were to choose a market to be closer to home, Buffalo makes complete sense. However, there are multiple holes now and long term for Murray to fill. I would not complain one moment about Stamkos coming to Buffalo, but at the same time allocating those funds to other areas is just as important. Mainly signing Ristolainen long term.
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I just cannot see a deadline deal involving Stamkos. What team is going to have the ammo to trade for him and simultaneously need him so badly to make a Cup run? Nashville? Parting with Foresberg and probably Josi or someone else? Edmonton? throws them a ton of young talent, maybe gets a d-man back?

He'll be a rental, I can't imagine he would cost that much. It's an odd situation since he's such a great player, but I imagine the cost will be prime picks/prospects.

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Honestly despite my reservations about overall team building long-term we probably could, in the abstract. But making it happen is hard--we'd have to shed some contracts I don't know we can. Note: the following is just me playing with numbers under what I think are reasonable price assumptions, not advocacy (except Risto...ssssiiiigggnnnn hhhhiiiimmmmm).

 

Using this year's cap figures, we had a hair over $9 million free. Coming off the books we have Legwand, Johnson, McGinn, Weber, Colaiacovo, Foligno (RFA), Larsson (RFA), Girgensons (RFA), Risto (RFA), McCabe (RFA), Deslauriers (RFA) for approximately $16 million. Let's say a small cap increase to $73 million, and we have about $26.5 million to play with and 8 forwards, 4 defensemen, and 1 goalie under contract. So let's say we want to add 6 forwards, 3 Dmen, and a goalie. Let's take care of the RFA's first:

 

Girgensons: bridge $2.5M x2

Larsson: bridge $1.8M x2

Foligno: standard 10% raise ~$2M x2

Deslaurier: little more than standard raise, $850k x 3

Risto: pay this man! $7M x8

McCabe: bridge $2M x2

 

So with that done, we're down to about $10 million in cap space while still needing 1 non-Stamkos forward, 1 goalie, and 1 D.

 

Goalie: Ullmark $775k

D: street UFA $900k (some may want Weber back, but he'd probably be around $2 million, and remember we're trying to afford Stamkos here)

Forward: Fasching on an ELC, ~$900k

 

With that we're at about $9.5 million free. Let's say Stamkos wants $10.5 million a la Kane and Toews, or he wants less and we have to overpay, whatever. We're about $1 million in the hole. We could just try to bridge Risto and that takes care of that and then some, but with respect to anyone who would do this, I think that would be an unbelievably short-sighted move, so let's not. 

 

Ideal solutions to free cap, in order of desirability:

Trade Moulson for not a contract (hahahahahahahaha): $5M

Gionta retires/traded (hahahahahaha): $4.25M - $1.25M replacement = $3M

Trade Franson for pucks: $3.325M - $900k replacement - $1M retained salary = $1.2M

Trade Foligno: $2M - $700k replacement = $1.3M

Trade Gorges: $3.9M - $2M replacement (Weber?) = $1.9M

 

Of those, I think Gorges, Foligno, and Franson could actually happen, and that'd free up (barely) enough money. But it's doable. I can't imagine finding a taker for Moulson's contract, and I'd be awfully surprised if Gionta retired or we found a taker for that contract. Plus they both have some form of NTC and would likely only waive to go to a contender who couldn't afford the cap hits anyway. Other options could be trying to trade Bogosian ($5.1M) or Ennis ($4.6M) and replace them with cheaper options, but really I think any deals involving them would mean bringing back salary and real players--not the type of thing to cap dump to clear room.

 

So purely from a cap perspective, we'd basically be looking at this year's team + 1 year experience + Stamkos heading into next season. Maybe Bogo/Ennis deals materialize, but I don't think you're looking at upgrades really so much as better fits for what we need. What say you?

 

Affectionately known as the Pittsburgh approach to team building :P

 

More seriously, I don't see how you keep all five of those guys when Jack and Samson want to get paid like Stamkos, barring some unexpected giant cap jump or new fandangled cap circumvention tool.

 

I love the structure for all of those contracts and I agree that getting Ristolainen paid now becomes a much easier case than next year.  He's everything you want in our number one horse.  Moving Moulson is the hardest number crunch on the roster.  We're likely stuck with him, unless the right fit comes up.  Weirder things have happened (I.e: Pronger, Grossmann for Gagner).  

Edited by TheCerebral1
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Well, this is huge freaking news.

 

As I've said previously, I am 100% on board with bringing in Stamkos. 

 

I also think the contract situation isn't as dire as some are painting it.  While I agree with giving Risto a long-term deal, I don't think he's a $7MM per year guy -- I think Dougie Hamilton's contract ($5.75MM x 6 years -- which BTW makes him the 14th-highest paid defenseman in the NHL), which he just signed with Calgary, is a good comparable.

 

I also think Reinhart, even at his peak, is not going to be paid nearly as much as Eichel or Stamkos.  I think Bergeron is a good comparable to Reino -- he's at $6.875MM. 

 

I can also very much see GMTM pulling a similar maneuver in this deal as he did last year with Kaner -- i.e. jump in and get him at the deadline in order to take him off the market and secure the added benefit of weakening the team to enhance draft position.

 

So maybe:  Ennis, Franson, CJ and a #2 for Stamkos?  With a big fat extension to be signed within 24 hours?

 

Holy mackerel.

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It's probably worth noting McKenzie is not only the gold standard for insiders, but he's gotten a bunch of stuff Sabres-specific right. Definitely interesting to hear him mention us. I'm almost ready to reverse my stance on Stamkos solely for the reaction of Leaf fans.

 

New get rid of Moulson plan if the crowd funding bribe doesn't work: have him party with McCoy and steal his champagne.

:w00t: This.  100 x this.

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If stamkos signs with us as an UFA instead of toronto, oh man that city is going to go apeshit and you guys will all be walking around with a smile for months :D

The Fan 590 out of Toronto runs a five min Stamkos watch every few days or if there is news.  I got a chuckle when Gorges snubbed T.O. for Buffalo.  If Stamkos were to sign here it would be unreal.

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Sorry but I don't think Stamkos is going to go to anyone not at present a contender. Including Toronto.

 

You may be right, but if all he wanted was a contender, he'd probably stay with TB -- so it's likely that an equally big factor to him is whether a team is willing and able to pay him huge $$.  I'm not sure there are any contenders that have a $10MM salary slot available.

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Of course, there is always the possibility that Stamkos is pulling a "Babcock" and using Buffalo to make sure Toronto maximizes their offer. OTOH, it does serve Buffalo well to make sure that Toronto pays top dollar.

You nailed it. And thanks for introducing a new word to the vernacular. Stamkos won't be the last to Babcock a team.

 

GO SABRES!!!

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nfreeman, on 12 Feb 2016 - 10:18 AM, said:

You may be right, but if all he wanted was a contender, he'd probably stay with TB -- so it's likely that an equally big factor to him is whether a team is willing and able to pay him huge $$.  I'm not sure there are any contenders that have a $10MM salary slot available.

 

 

This, but there are even fewer teams with the cap space and COULD become contenders, and are also close to home.  It makes sense.

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My understanding is that the segment in question challenges panelists to answer a question differently than other panelists do, and that Toronto and Detroit already had been discussed.

 

I do not think there is any chance whatsoever that Stamkos is a Sabre, for a number of reasons.  Tampa and Toronto are the only two real contenders IMO.

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Of course, there is always the possibility that Stamkos is pulling a "Babcock" and using Buffalo to make sure Toronto maximizes their offer. OTOH, it does serve Buffalo well to make sure that Toronto pays top dollar.

Deserves its own thread, but is this really what happened or was that the Sabres' cover story? There was also talk of Babcock not feeling comfortable with the organization structure and his relegation to "coach only" status.

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