McKenzie speculates that Stamkos will end up in Buffalo

[WildCard]

Give me a bit, True. That post is too good for me to put the effort it needs in tonight. 

[Hoss]

As Hoss said a few days ago, signing Stamkos would mean moving on from Kane and probably Reinhart in two to three seasons. Kane via free agency and Reinhart as a trade, I would have to say it would be worth it though.

It wasn't me that said this. It was just me that said I wouldn't be that upset by it if it went down like this.

Although I don't think it's automatic, either.

I LOVED your stat about Stamkos currently having only 5 more goals than rookie Samson. It really crystallized why trading Reinhart for the sake of 27 year old Stamkos, to me, is lunacy.

You wouldn't be trading him for the sake of it. You're adding risk that you may not be able to pay him down the line but you can work it out. Also, Stamkos is 26. He turned 26 like four days ago.

[Randall Flagg]

It wasn't me that said this. It was just me that said I wouldn't be that upset by it if it went down like this.

Although I don't think it's automatic, either.

 

You wouldn't be trading him for the sake of it. You're adding risk that you may not be able to pay him down the line but you can work it out. Also, Stamkos is 26. He turned 26 like four days ago.

It's also worth it to not look at it as trading Reinhart for Stamkos, but trading Reinhart for Stamkos and something that has similar value to Reinhart, no?

[WildCard]

It wasn't me that said this. It was just me that said I wouldn't be that upset by it if it went down like this.

Although I don't think it's automatic, either.

 

You wouldn't be trading him for the sake of it. You're adding risk that you may not be able to pay him down the line but you can work it out. Also, Stamkos is 26. He turned 26 like four days ago.

So, he'll be great for another 4 year, maybe 5, then above average. 

[Thorny]

I LOVED your stat about Stamkos currently having only 5 more goals than rookie Samson. It really crystallized why trading Reinhart for the sake of 27 year old Stamkos, to me, is lunacy.

 

If we can get Stamkos while finding a way to keep Sam, Jack, ROR, and Risto, I'm for it. Can this be done? Your post indicated it would be difficult to keep all 5. You gotta believe if there is a way, Murray will find it. You mentioned it is the Pittsburgh approach, but it is also the Chicago approach too, to a degree, no? They key is drafting smart going forward after that, and not dealing away all futures. We will need those ELC to replace the other players on the roster who's stats inflate by playing with those 5 studs. Then we can deal those eager beavers for even more futures.

[TrueBlueGED]

It wasn't me that said this. It was just me that said I wouldn't be that upset by it if it went down like this.

Although I don't think it's automatic, either.

 

You wouldn't be trading him for the sake of it. You're adding risk that you may not be able to pay him down the line but you can work it out. Also, Stamkos is 26. He turned 26 like four days ago.

 

He'd be 27 in the first year of his contract, which is what I was getting at. Should've been more clear.

[WildCard]

If we can get Stamkos while finding a way to keep Sam, Jack, ROR, and Risto, I'm for it. Can this be done? Your post indicated it would be difficult to keep all 5. You gotta believe if there is a way, Murray will find it. You mentioned it is the Pittsburgh approach, but it is also the Chicago approach too, to a degree, no? They key is drafting smart going forward after that, and not dealing away all futures. We will need those ELC to replace the other players on the roster who's stats inflate by playing with those 5 studs. Then we can deal those eager beavers for even more futures.

The difference with Chicago, is their core is 4 guys, not the 5 we're considering. Also, their 2-2 are 2 forwards and 2 d-men, and forwards cost much more. We'll have 4 forwards, averaging at $8m+ (Jack and Stamkos will cost more, Reinhart and ROR a little less, so average about $8m). Add that to the ~$7.5 Risto will command, and we have about $39.5m tied up in 5 players, or over 1/2 our cap. 5 guys doesn't win you diddly squat, a well balanced roster does.

Edited February 12, 2016 by WildCard

[Hoss]

He'd be 27 in the first year of his contract, which is what I was getting at. Should've been more clear.

I don't generally agree with doing this unless it's towards the very beginning of the season. He'll be 27 when over half of the games have been played next season.

[TrueBlueGED]

If we can get Stamkos while finding a way to keep Sam, Jack, ROR, and Risto, I'm for it. Can this be done? Your post indicated it would be difficult to keep all 5. You gotta believe if there is a way, Murray will find it. You mentioned it is the Pittsburgh approach, but it is also the Chicago approach too, to a degree, no? They key is drafting smart going forward after that, and not dealing away all futures. We will need those ELC to replace the other players on the roster who's stats inflate by playing with those 5 studs. Then we can deal those eager beavers for even more futures.

 

Going forward, I don't believe teams can pull off what Chicago did. Chicago could afford to have more grade-A players under contract at once because of back diving contracts--Keith and Hossa have hilariously underpriced cap hits. They also happened to be coming into their own at the same time that the cap was going up 5%+ every year. Unless and until the Canadian dollar rebounds and a new U.S. TV deal is signed, cap growth is unlikely to reach those levels consistently.

I don't generally agree with doing this unless it's towards the very beginning of the season. He'll be 27 when over half of the games have been played next season.

 

Not unfair, but debating +/- 2 months on age is picking nits IMO. Besides, he'd be his age rounded up for the Cup run :nana:

[Hoss]

Let's dream for a second:

 

O-Reilly - Stamkos - Bailey

??? - Eichel - Girgensons

Kane - Reinhart - Fasching

Deslauriers - Larsson - Whoever

 

DMan acquired - Risto

McCabe - Bogosian

DMan acquired - Pysyk

 

Lehner - Ullmark

 

 

The top-pairing dman would have to be acquired with some mix of Ennis or Girgensons plus picks and prospects. The bottom-pairing dman could be Weber or another free agent. The left wing for Eichel could be a draftee or a free agent.

[Thorny]

The difference with Chicago, is their core is 4 guys, not the 5 we're considering. Also, their 2-2 are 2 forwards and 2 d-men, and forwards cost much more. We'll have 4 forwards, averaging at $8m+ (Jack and Stamkos will cost more, Reinhart and ROR a little less, so average about $8m). Add that to the ~$7.5 Risto will command, and we have about $39.5m tied up in 5 players, or over 1/2 our cap. 5 guys doesn't win you diddly squat, a well balanced roster does.

 

 

Going forward, I don't believe teams can pull off what Chicago did. Chicago could afford to have more grade-A players under contract at once because of back diving contracts--Keith and Hossa have hilariously underpriced cap hits. They also happened to be coming into their own at the same time that the cap was going up 5%+ every year. Unless and until the Canadian dollar rebounds and a new U.S. TV deal is signed, cap growth is unlikely to reach those levels consistently.

 

Not unfair, but debating +/- 2 months on age is picking nits IMO. Besides, he'd be his age rounded up for the Cup run :nana:

 

 But aren't they managing this right now, with 5 stars under the current cap? Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, and Seabrook total 37.6 mil cap hit this season. This is close to Wildcard's 39.5 mil esitimate for our forwards.

[TrueBlueGED]

 But aren't they managing this right now, with 5 stars under the current cap? Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, and Seabrook total 37.6 mil cap hit this season. This is close to Wildcard's 39.5 mil esitimate for our forwards.

 

But, again, Hossa and Keith are under contracts we can't hope to replicate. In other words, I think WildCard underestimated our price stars' price tags :)

[WildCard]

 But aren't they managing this right now, with 5 stars under the current cap? Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, and Seabrook total 37.6 mil cap hit this season. This is close to Wildcard's 39.5 mil esitimate for our forwards.

Well, to be honest, Eichel will get more than that, and Stamkos will too. Hell, Risto and Reinhart may too. I only did it for their next deals, not their max superstar deals that Kane and Toews have at $10m each. With current contracts and cap risings, Eichel, if he is who we think he is, will demand $11m

 

Also, take a look at Chicago's cap hits. True is right, Keith is criminally underpaid. Beyond criminally actually, like, Karlsson level underpaid. He should be at least at Seabrooke's level of a $9m cap hit, or $1.5m more than he currently has. 

[#freejame]

Can you give player options in hockey like you can baseball? If he's all about the money maybe he takes a 7 year deal from Buffalo for 10 million with an option to get out after year three, figuring he'll score 50 every year here and will be able to turn three good years now into three extra years at a high pay later. 

I'd bet someone would pay a 30 year old coming off of some high scoring years another 7 years for big money, maybe even bigger. That would free up cash for us to keep our guys

Edited February 12, 2016 by IrwinNelson

[Thorny]

Let's dream for a second:

 

O-Reilly - Stamkos - Bailey

??? - Eichel - Girgensons

Kane - Reinhart - Fasching

Deslauriers - Larsson - Whoever

 

DMan acquired - Risto

McCabe - Bogosian

DMan acquired - Pysyk

 

Lehner - Ullmark

 

 

The top-pairing dman would have to be acquired with some mix of Ennis or Girgensons plus picks and prospects. The bottom-pairing dman could be Weber or another free agent. The left wing for Eichel could be a draftee or a free agent.

 

 

I'd go right to:

 

ROR - Eichel - Stamkos

Kane - Reinhart - Fasching

Girgensons - Larsson - Bailey

 

Chychrun - Ristolainen

McCabe - Pysyk

xxx - Bogosian

 

Lehner

Ullmark

Edited February 12, 2016 by Thorny

[WildCard]

But, again, Hossa and Keith are under contracts we can't hope to replicate. In other words, I think WildCard underestimated our price stars' price tags :)

Those are only the 4-5 deals that Kane and Toews got. The max 8 year contracts that we'll shell out to Reinhart, Risto, and Eichel eventually will be massive. But, at that point there'll be only what? 2,3 more years on Stamkos' contract? Maybe we have options at that point to dump his hit

 

 

Also, don't underestimate how much Seabrook means to that team. 2 stud d-men lets Joe Q split them up and roll only 2 pairs of d-men in the playoffs. Essentially saying our 5-6 guys aren't but the minimum of cap hits, so basically AHL call ups and what not. You need a #2 guy. It's a hugely underrated component of winning teams 

[Thorny]

But, again, Hossa and Keith are under contracts we can't hope to replicate. In other words, I think WildCard underestimated our price stars' price tags :)

 

 

Well, to be honest, Eichel will get more than that, and Stamkos will too. Hell, Risto and Reinhart may too. I only did it for their next deals, not their max superstar deals that Kane and Toews have at $10m each. With current contracts and cap risings, Eichel, if he is who we think he is, will demand $11m

 

Also, take a look at Chicago's cap hits. True is right, Keith is criminally underpaid. Beyond criminally actually, like, Karlsson level underpaid. He should be at least at Seabrooke's level of a $9m cap hit, or $1.5m more than he currently has. 

 

Darn. So there is no way we can keep all 5, after Eichel and Sam's ELCs are up?

[WildCard]

I'd go right to:

 

ROR - Eichel - Stamkos

Kane - Reinhart - Fasching

Girgensons - Larsson - Bailey

 

Chychrun - Ristolainen

McCabe - Pysyk

xxx - Bogosian

 

Lehner

Ullmark

If Stamkos goes anywhere, he's going to demand playing center. I love that top line, but Stamkos won't

Darn. So there is no way we can keep all 5, after Eichel and Sam's ELCs are up?

There's always a way, but I just don't think it's a smart move. 3rd lines and depth scoring are real handy come playoff time. Plus, that makes it real hard to feasibly sign 3-4 guys on our blue line, while still getting our #2 d-man. 

Edited February 12, 2016 by WildCard

[dudacek]

Umm....

 

https://twitter.com/sabresoptimist/status/697976961621069824

 

So I post essentially this a couple days ago and get a few yawns and whatevahs.

Bob posts it and the board blows up.

 

Typical Buffalo. :P

[Thorny]

If Stamkos goes anywhere, he's going to demand playing center. I love that top line, but Stamkos won't

 

Let them take turns. It would be an all-world line. The players may be aware and okay with that.

 

Is Stamkos good enough that you take the chance of losing one of the 5 after the young-uns ELCs are up? Go for broke, then hope the cap goes up higher than expected, for some unseen reason? Like I said, I don't want to lose Sam. We can't afford to lose Risto or the type of game ROR brings. Jack has the highest potential of all. You'd have to sign Stamkos with the hope that you could work out something for Sam after his ELC was up, or else risk losing him. Is Stamkos worth that?

So I post essentially this a couple days ago and get a few yawns and whatevahs.

Bob posts it and the board blows up.

 

Typical Buffalo. :P

 

It's because it was alll.....part....of the plaaaan.

 

....too many dark knight references today.

[...]

I hate to bring this up, but the top forwards we're talking about are all centres. There's something about using players correctly and all of that. One the of Jack/Samson/Ryan/Steven would have to always play a wing. Seems to me that when the centres we have are put in a centre role, they look better. Amirite?

 

Add to that Ennis being a "natural" centre. Yikes. Ennis' contract isn't bad, though. If he were healthy, I think it'd be easy to move him.

 

This stinks. The economies being weak are messing with the master plan. All teams are going to have a rough time once these old contracts from the last CBA age out.

[Thorny]

I hate to bring this up, but the top forwards we're talking about are all centres. There's something about using players correctly and all of that. One the of Jack/Samson/Ryan/Steven would have to always play a wing. Seems to me that when the centres we have are put in a centre role, they look better. Amirite?

 

Add to that Ennis being a "natural" centre. Yikes. Ennis' contract isn't bad, though. If he were healthy, I think it'd be easy to move him.

 

This stinks. The economies being weak are messing with the master plan. All teams are going to have a rough time once these old contracts from the last CBA age out.

 

Your point on playing natural position is well taken, but depending on how the lines are used (looking at you, Disco) we may have a spot for 3 offensive centers. As for playing wing, ROR had his best statistical season before this one playing wing. Reinhart can play wing if need be, he did spend some of his time in junior at wing. Reinhart can excel anywhere, as far as I am concerned. And Stamkos has show an ability to play RW as well. The only one I would be dead set on playing at Center would be Eichel, and that can be arranged.

[thewookie1]

Burying Moulson in the minors for a year Cap hit would be reduced by 950k, maybe someone can convince him to take some kind of mutual parting of ways where we give him money to retire. 

 

Trade Ennis and Franson for futures & cheaper replacements

 

 

Really it isn't now that would be the problem, it would be in 2 more years when Eichel and Reinhart are up looking for new contracts.

 

 

2018-19

ROR 7.5mil

Risto 7mil

Bogo 5.1mil

Moulson 5mil/4.05mil

Hodgson adds 458k oddly that year

 

Now lets say they take the root of Kane and Toews and take an intermediate contract around 7.5mil a piece for 3 or 4 years. That would be about 39.1/38.25 mil tied up in them alone. Add 10 for Stamkos and we have roughly 49mil in

 

5 Fs and 2 D

 

ROR-Eichel-???

???-Stamkos-Reinhart

???-???-???

Moulson-???-???

 

???-Risto

???-Bogo

???-???

 

???

???

 

This year the cap is $71.4 mil

Let's say it goes up to $73.2 mil next year

$75.1 mil in 2 years

$77.5 mil in 3 years

 

Add in the expansion and at best the cap hits $79/80 mil.

 

That gives us 30 mil to sign 13 players minimum, 7 Fs, 4 Ds, 2 Gs and we'd likely need 15 so that'd give us on average 2mil per player.

 

 

Now let's project costs

ROR-Eichel-(5mil)

(4mil)-Stamkos-Reinhart

(1.25mil)-(1.25mil)-(1.25mil)

Moulson-(1.25mil)-(.75mil)

14.75mil on Forwards(Moulson could be replaced for a 950k player)

 

(4mil)-Risto

(3.5mil)-Bogo

(1.25mil)-(1.25mil)

10 mil on Defence

 

(4mil)

(1.25mil)

5.25 on Goalies

 

0mil for subs!!!

 

 

Impossible, no. But I just can't figure out how'd we maintain the team more than 2 years. Even if Moulson ceased being, you'd still only be paying 4 more players 1.25 mil per thus giving you subs at least. And that'd mean my favorite player, Girgs leaving  :cry:

[Hoss]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/steven-stamkos-situation-could-be-resolved-sooner-than-once-thought/

 

Suggests a divorce with Tampa is coming and a deadline deal is possible.

[WildCard]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/steven-stamkos-situation-could-be-resolved-sooner-than-once-thought/

 

Suggests a divorce with Tampa is coming and a deadline deal is possible.

I just cannot see a deadline deal involving Stamkos. What team is going to have the ammo to trade for him and simultaneously need him so badly to make a Cup run? Nashville? Parting with Foresberg and probably Josi or someone else? Edmonton? throws them a ton of young talent, maybe gets a d-man back?