Trade: Lehner and Legwand to Buffalo

[LGR4GM]

Nope.  It's based in this dimension, where Regier enacted the Tank to land the high pick we had last year and the one we have tonight.

Darcy Regier did not get us Jack Eichel.  Prove that statement wrong. 

[nfreeman]

I think we all want to like Lehner.  I just don't see the urgency to get him.  Pretty much every goalie we had last year had a good stretch and our problem definitely wasn't in net.

Then don't get him.  At least, not for that price.

 

Tons of goaltending in the NHL right now.  I think we had plenty of options.

 

Well, certainly there are a lot of knowledgeable hockey people who think that goaltenders are fungible.  I don't think I'm all the way there, though. 

 

Dallas will be interesting to watch in this regard -- crappy goaltending played a large role in keeping a very talented team there out of the playoffs.  Let's see how they address it this summer, how much they spend to do so, and what the results are.  It's worth noting that they gave 2 of the Sabres' goalies (Lindback and Enroth -- whom many have thrown around as being roughly comparable to Lehner or, in JJ50's case, Hasek) a whirl last year and neither got the job done for them.

 

 

Why are you still touting Darcy's final days positively?  He could've rebuilt this team without going through several years of sucking, but he didn't.  He sat on his hands and hoped the old rotten core would grow together and finally have success in the playoffs.  Darcy's "plan" wasn't to tank.  Darcy tanked after all other plans failed.

 

GMTM made a trade.  Talk about that.  Not Darcy.

 

This.

[ddaryl]

Oh the comedy coming from the lone Reiger supporter

[Huckleberry]

Lets talk about the trade again guys, wich to me at the moment feels like overpayment certainly with legwands capdump.

Might feel differently about this in half a year but we'll see.

[Hoss]

Seriously it's draft day and THIS is the conversation we're having?

[nucci]

Lets talk about the trade again guys, wich to me at the moment feels like overpayment certainly with legwands capdump.

Might feel differently about this in half a year but we'll see.

ignore this as this did not cost the Sabres anything but a salary. Discuss the 21st overall pick for Lehner. How can it be overpayment if we got an extra player?

[qwksndmonster]

Seriously it's draft day and THIS is the conversation we're having?

:D We can't have nice things until we cleanse our systems of the years and years of bad things.

[Huckleberry]

ignore this as this did not cost the Sabres anything but a salary. Discuss the 21st overall pick for Lehner. How can it be overpayment if we got an extra player?

 

It is in this goaliemarket, and if Lehners brain turns out to be applesauce after his next hit.

[musichunch]

I want to get in this thread now to say I support this trade. 

 

My logic:

1. The #21 overall pick has never been valuable in an NHL draft. I hear talk in this thread about Murray "fixating" on a goalie. Well I think fans are "fixating" on a late first rounder.

 

2. The idea of goalies having low value has gotten out of control. If it was a stock, I would be buying. Are you telling me Chicago would have lost the cup if they had Price? Classic feedback loop situation. Half the people complaining don't know anything except what they heard other people say. In the next 3 years, the wind will probably blow the other way.

 

3. Lehner is better than any #21 pick in the last 8 years. And he's 23, has a few years left, and has proven himself somewhat in the NHL. Higher odds than any draft pick. Great probability move. That's why he's trading away draft picks for established young players. Higher odds. He's gaming the system.

 

4. We're set for the next 10 years at goalie. Most glaring hole on the team filled. Great forwards, great defenseman, great goalie. Complete team.

 

5. He's a goalie with a concussion, not a skater with a concussion. Lower odds of getting another one.

Edited June 26, 2015 by musichunch

[deluca67]

I still like Tim Murray as Sabres GM. I still hate this trade. Hopefully Tim Muray is right and my anger goes unfounded. (Slowly folds TSC t-shirt and locks away in hidden compartment in the back of the closet.)

Edited June 26, 2015 by DeLuca1967

[LGR4GM]

I want to get in this thread now to say I support this trade. 

 

My logic:

1. The #21 overall pick has never been valuable in an NHL draft. I hear talk in this thread about Murray "fixating" on a goalie. Well I think fans are "fixating" on a late first rounder.

 

2. The idea of goalies having low value has gotten out of control. If it was a stock, I would be buying. Are you telling me Chicago would have lost the cup if they had Price? Classic feedback loop situation. Half the people complaining don't know anything except what they heard other people say. In the next 3 years, the wind will probably blow the other way.

 

3. Lehner is better than any #21 pick in the last 8 years. And he's 23, has a few years left, and has proven himself somewhat in the NHL. Higher odds than any draft pick. Great probability move. That's why he's trading away draft picks for established young players. Higher odds. He's gaming the system.

 

4. We're set for the next 10 years at goalie. Most glaring hole on the team filled. Great forwards, great defenseman, great goalie. Complete team.

This is a good post and good way to look at this trade.

[That Aud Smell]

I want to get in this thread now to say I support this trade. 

 

4. We're set for the next 10 years at goalie. Most glaring hole on the team filled. Great forwards, great defenseman, great goalie. Complete team.

 

A little optimistic for my taste there at 4, but really good stuff overall. Excellent.

Edited June 26, 2015 by That Aud Smell

[Derrico]

Lets talk about the trade again guys, wich to me at the moment feels like overpayment certainly with legwands capdump.

Might feel differently about this in half a year but we'll see.

Why do we care about the Legwand cap dump?  I don't give two shits about that.

 

I agree it was overpayment the 21st pick for Lehner though.

[PromoTheRobot]

Obviously GMTM thought Lehner was worth the price. All we can do is wait and see if that faith was justified.

[shrader]

A little optimistic for my taste there at 4, but really good stuff overall. Excellent.

 

Optimistic is an understatement.  If I had to label it, I'd say good upside at every position.  That's as far as I'm willing to go.

[Samson's Flow]

I want to get in this thread now to say I support this trade. 

 

My logic:

1. The #21 overall pick has never been valuable in an NHL draft. I hear talk in this thread about Murray "fixating" on a goalie. Well I think fans are "fixating" on a late first rounder.

 

2. The idea of goalies having low value has gotten out of control. If it was a stock, I would be buying. Are you telling me Chicago would have lost the cup if they had Price? Classic feedback loop situation. Half the people complaining don't know anything except what they heard other people say. In the next 3 years, the wind will probably blow the other way.

 

3. Lehner is better than any #21 pick in the last 8 years. And he's 23, has a few years left, and has proven himself somewhat in the NHL. Higher odds than any draft pick. Great probability move. That's why he's trading away draft picks for established young players. Higher odds. He's gaming the system.

 

4. We're set for the next 10 years at goalie. Most glaring hole on the team filled. Great forwards, great defenseman, great goalie. Complete team.

I think a lot of the hate for this trade is that people always overvalue potential and unknown of draft picks over actual tangible players. Fans look at the ceiling of all these 18 year old players and compare that against what they have seen of the current player. What is often overlooked is the probability of the 18 yr old prospect hitting that ceiling is relatively low. By comparison, the established prospect is much easier to project to a more reasonable value since they are further along.

 

Fans see the best case scenario of taking, say, Zboril at #21 and compare his ceiling as an 18 year old against the more established Lehner as a 23 year old and see missed value. But it is just as likely (if not moreso) that Zboril never develops further and doesn't make the NHL in a few years.

 

It is a perception bias that makes fans over value draft picks and new prospects.

[shrader]

I think a lot of the hate for this trade is that people always overvalue potential and unknown of draft picks over actual tangible players. Fans look at the ceiling of all these 18 year old players and compare that against what they have seen of the current player. What is often overlooked is the probability of the 18 yr old prospect hitting that ceiling is relatively low. By comparison, the established prospect is much easier to project to a more reasonable value since they are further along.

 

Fans see the best case scenario of taking, say, Zboril at #21 and compare his ceiling as an 18 year old against the more established Lehner as a 23 year old and see missed value. But it is just as likely (if not moreso) that Zboril never develops further and doesn't make the NHL in a few years.

 

It is a perception bias that makes fans over value draft picks and new prospects.

 

That makes it sound like a lateral move to me.  With the completely different learning curve for most goalies, Lehner looks to be just an older version of that unproven teenager.

[Huckleberry]

 

Tim Murray doesn't care what his critics say about his trading of the 21st overall pick for goalie Robin Lehner. Murray said Friday afternoon that Robin Lehner was his #1 goalie target. Not Cam Talbot, nor Eddie Lack. Not John Gibson nor Craig Anderson.Murray wanted Lehner over all else. In his estimation, Lehner is a starting goalie on a good team.

 

So, you think that Murray paid too much for Lehner? Too bad. That is your uniformed opinion, according to Murray. He has known Lehner for seven years. He has done his homework on Lehner. Unlike the Twitter Trolls and media "experts", Murray says that he knows the kid like the back of his hand. Murray wants the haters to do their homework before they slap him in 140 character rants.

 

When you listen to fools, the mob rules.

 

It's a salient point by Murray to say that when a professional hockey team has to number 1 goalies there are going to be issues. Both guys want the net. One man wins while the other loses. It effects the second goalie and churns up emotions inside the room. Look at Montreal with Halak and Price. Or, Washington with Varlamov and Holtby. Holtby and Neuvirth. St. Louis also had beef between Elliott abd Hakak. New Jersey had a dust up with Brodeur and Schneider. 

 

It happens. Goalies are human, too. 

 

Murray looked into Lehner's disappointing 2014-15 season and he feels that the trade to Buffalo will get Lehner back on the winning way.

 

Its a scary world where Garth starts to make more sense than most journalists.

Still think we overpayed, but only time will tell.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Heimdall

[Robviously]

Its a scary world where Garth starts to make more sense than most journalists.

Still think we overpayed, but only time will tell.

The rejoinder to that line of reasoning is that every time the Bills did something silly in the past 15 years, someone always pointed out that the guys running the team "know more about football than any fan ever will."  But the fans were usually right.

 

It's sports.  It's not that complicated.  It's not like what is being done is on par with medicine or engineering.  The fans usually aren't that far off.

[musichunch]

That makes it sound like a lateral move to me.  With the completely different learning curve for most goalies, Lehner looks to be just an older version of that unproven teenager.

 

Opposite of lateral move. The further along they are in their development cycle, the more clear their potential becomes. 

 

Think of it like Hockey's Future's rankings:

 

18 year old - 8/10 potential, 50% chance of reaching it

20 year old - 7/10 potential, 60% chance

22 year old - 6/10 potential, 85% chance

 

But when you have a situation where

Player A - 18 years old - 9/10 potential 40% chance

Player B - 23 years old - 9/10 potential, 75% chance

 

It would be the wiser move to take Player B. That's how I see it. Also will pay off sooner.

Edited June 26, 2015 by musichunch

[LTS]

:D We can't have nice things until we cleanse our systems of the years and years of bad things.

 

We don't have that kind of time man.

[Huckleberry]

The rejoinder to that line of reasoning is that every time the Bills did something silly in the past 15 years, someone always pointed out that the guys running the team "know more about football than any fan ever will."  But the fans were usually right.

 

It's sports.  It's not that complicated.  It's not like what is being done is on par with medicine or engineering.  The fans usually aren't that far off.

 

Its not about that to me, Murray knows Lehner very well, he drafted and groomed him, he should know more than anyone else that he should become our #1 goalie for years to come.

That is the only thing that can justify giving up this 21st round pick.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Heimdall

[Robviously]

Its not about that to me, Murray knows Lehner very well, he drafted and groomed him, he should know more than anyone else that he should become our #1 goalie for years to come.

That is the only thing that can justify giving up this 21st round pick.

Let's just hope he's right.

[dejeanneret]

I think a lot of the hate for this trade is that people always overvalue potential and unknown of draft picks over actual tangible players. Fans look at the ceiling of all these 18 year old players and compare that against what they have seen of the current player. What is often overlooked is the probability of the 18 yr old prospect hitting that ceiling is relatively low. By comparison, the established prospect is much easier to project to a more reasonable value since they are further along.

 

Fans see the best case scenario of taking, say, Zboril at #21 and compare his ceiling as an 18 year old against the more established Lehner as a 23 year old and see missed value. But it is just as likely (if not moreso) that Zboril never develops further and doesn't make the NHL in a few years.

 

It is a perception bias that makes fans over value draft picks and new prospects.

I agree.

 

I also think alot of angst from the fans comes from the fact that #21 has been tied to any potential ROR deal. Obviously ROR is a bigger name than Lehner and there is a feeling that TM could have gotten more value for 21 (I.E. ROR).  But we don't know whats going on behind the scenes.  With TM coming out and saying Lehner was his #1 choice then the 21st pick isn't a huge price to pay considering reports are a first round pick alone isn't enough to secure the services of Talbot.  With Lehner off the market Talbot's price just went up.  TM is ahead of the curve on this one.

 

As another poster indicated if 21 was such an intrigal part of the ROR deal then Murray may have not made the Lehner trade.  I'm sure we are still in on ROR. My fear is if the price will be too steep.  But then again we are last place team. Some fans fall in love with players or names that may have been good or "up and coming" at one time and haven't produced.  We have alot of "mediocre" on the team and to trade some of that way for great isn't a bad thing.  In the end it's the best four lines you can put on the ice.  Hopefully we have enough talent where big names aren't making it.

Edited June 26, 2015 by dejeanneret

[JJFIVEOH]

Are Schopp & Bulldog drunk? They're trying way too hard to sound smart. So far in the last two minutes, draft picks are used cars, a casino and a lamp. Holy crap, my head is spinning just listening to these guys!