Vanek Traded to NYI for Matt Moulson, 1st in 2014 (or 2015!), 2nd in 2015; 4 Months Later: Moulson to MN for 2014/2016 2nd Rounders

[FolignosJock]

So does the group think that Darcy Regier is the one making the calls to other teams - "Hey, we got a trade you might be interested in" , or does he wait to receive the calls from other team's owners and GMs?

 

Both ways, it has been said by him I believe that he talks to every GM on an almost weekly basis

[Claude_Verret]

I think Darcy would get a 1st and more for Moulson. Values tend to inflate as you get closer to the deadline. See: Gaustad, Paul.

[LGR4GM]

I think Darcy would get a 1st and more for Moulson. Values tend to inflate as you get closer to the deadline. See: Gaustad, Paul.

You are ruining the UFA's are worthless in trades narrative with logic, knock it off!

 

 

:P

[X. Benedict]

I think Darcy would get a 1st and more for Moulson. Values tend to inflate as you get closer to the deadline. See: Gaustad, Paul.

Moulson will be a cap friendly addition for some club by the trade deadline. He'll get a nice return.

[JJFIVEOH]

Why is everybody so obsessed with dealing Moulson? There is such a thing as having too many picks and not enough veterans. Yes, I know re-signing is the issue. How many are open to keeping him if he re-signs?

[darksabre]

I think Darcy would get a 1st and more for Moulson. Values tend to inflate as you get closer to the deadline. See: Gaustad, Paul.

 

Sort of an aside, but despite not putting up points, Gaustad seems to have fallen into a Saku Koivu role with the Preds. Really good face off numbers so far this year.

[X. Benedict]

Why is everybody so obsessed with dealing Moulson? There is such a thing as having too many picks and not enough veterans. Yes, I know re-signing is the issue. How many are open to keeping him if he re-signs?

At this point in his career...he's probably thinking the same as Vanek....he'll want to play for a winner. He's not likely to sign.

[dudacek]

As of this moment, I am totally open to signing Moulson to a four-year $16 million deal.

He won't sign it because this summer he will get at least a five-year, $25 million deal.

I'd rather trade him for the going rate - which should be at least a late first-rounder - and spend my money elsewhere.

 

If he clicks with Hodgson and Ennis for the next three months, I may change my mind; as you say, we will have to pay some veterans.

But at this point I do not see him as a contributor when the team gets good.

Therefore, I would rather have a lesser free agent and his trade return.

 

Also, have you noticed the analytic talk Ted has been spouting lately?

I really think the Sabres may be taking a serious Moneyball approach to their free agent spending (recent Thomas Vanek rumour notwithstanding).

[Eleven]

At this point in his career...he's probably thinking the same as Vanek....he'll want to play for a winner. He's not likely to sign.

As of this moment, I am totally open to signing Moulson to a four-year $16 million deal.

He won't sign it because this summer he will get at least a five-year, $25 million deal.

I'd rather trade him for the going rate - which should be at least a late first-rounder - and spend my money elsewhere.

 

If he clicks with Hodgson and Ennis for the next three months, I may change my mind; as you say, we will have to pay some veterans.

But at this point I do not see him as a contributor when the team gets good.

Therefore, I would rather have a lesser free agent and his trade return.

 

Also, have you noticed the analytic talk Ted has been spouting lately?

I really think the Sabres may be taking a serious Moneyball approach to their free agent spending (recent Thomas Vanek rumour notwithstanding).

 

I think I almost would have preferred Okposo straight up to Moulson and the picks. Someone has to be left to play hockey.

[beerme1]

What? Tavares is elite level talent who Vanek is playing with.....

 

Vaneks play will be raised and Moulsons will be lowered, Moulson is by no stretch a better overall player than Vanek. No hockey person on the planet belives that. Including all of the GMs in the NHL. Which is obvious since we also got a 1st and 2nd round pick in addition to him in the deal.

 

I am willing to bet Vaneks play is not raised. In fact I'm willing to bet he is about to go into one of his patented ten games or so dissapearing acts. Only this time with Elite talent in Long Island while Moulson just keeps trucking like his same old self. The two guys spots are not going to change.

[LGR4GM]

I will wait to pass judgement on whether or not I want Moulson resigned. He looked good in his first game but that doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot. He was a late bloomer and I am sure that he had to have some skills to be able to contribute goals the way he did even if he was playing with tavares. If he clicks with Hodgson then I would be okay with having him for 5yrs at 5mil actually. He has his last 3 years with 30+ goals so maybe he does have a nack for scoring. I think with him it is a wait and see kinda thing where the Sabres can win either way. All that being said if he is not signed to an extension by the deadline... buh bye!

[JJFIVEOH]

So here we have a dedicated player who is a hard working blue collar kind of guy, since he's had to prove himself through every step of his career. A player that gets in front of the net and gets most of his goals in close. A consistent 30+ goal scorer (who hasn't been with Tavares for all of those 30+ goal years) and could be had for a reasonably low price. Not to mention all the talk about hitting the cap floor if/when Stafford and Miller are eliminated from this roster, on top of the fact we got a 1st and 2nd round to boot.

 

Isn't he exactly the kind of player Sabres fans have been dying for for years? Am I missing something? I just don't get it.

Edited October 31, 2013 by JJFIVEOH

[shrader]

So does the group think that Darcy Regier is the one making the calls to other teams - "Hey, we got a trade you might be interested in" , or does he wait to receive the calls from other team's owners and GMs?

 

TSN had the report earlier this week that some sort of Vanek offer was made to Toronto that they balked on. Obviously Toronto isn't initiating that talk.

[nfreeman]

So here we have a dedicated player who is a hard working blue collar kind of guy, since he's had to prove himself through every step of his career. A player that gets in front of the net and gets most of his goals in close. A consistent 30+ goal scorer (who hasn't been with Tavares for all of those 30+ goal years) and could be had for a reasonably low price. Not to mention all the talk about hitting the cap floor if/when Stafford and Miller are eliminated from this roster, on top of the fact we got a 1st and 2nd round to boot.

 

Isn't he exactly the kind of player Sabres fans have been dying for for years? Am I missing something? I just don't get it.

 

What is the basis for this statement? He's got 3 consecutive 30-goal seasons -- and maybe 4 if he keeps it up this year. Someone will give him a fat UFA contract -- and for the Sabres to keep him they'll need to beat his other offers by 20% or more. Think $6.5MM x 6 years.

Edited October 31, 2013 by nfreeman

[LGR4GM]

Just a quick note on Moulson. Right now he is shooting at .214% where as his average is .141% thus I would expect his scoring pace to slow and regress towards his average. Note that his season high sh% since he made it full time is .164%

 

For those of you who are math challenged like myself it means that currently Moulson is scoring on 21.4 out of 100 shots where as his average is 14.1 out of 100. Roughly speaking for a guy who takes a little over 200 shots a year this means he is on pace to score 10more goals than average. That seems unlikely but he could theoretically do it.

 

At his current pace based on shot percentage he would net 46.8goals on 218.6shots.

If you used his average shot percentage (.141) he would have 30.8goals and if you used his best (.164) 35.8goals. Both of which are very probable given his last 3 full seasons and even counting the lockout shortened season from last year.

 

Edit: Note that if you used his current GPGA he would get roughly 54.6goals this season which IMPO is not plausible.

Edited October 31, 2013 by LGR4GM

[Doohickie]

I will wait to pass judgement on whether or not I want Moulson resigned. He looked good in his first game but that doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot. He was a late bloomer and I am sure that he had to have some skills to be able to contribute goals the way he did even if he was playing with tavares. If he clicks with Hodgson then I would be okay with having him for 5yrs at 5mil actually. He has his last 3 years with 30+ goals so maybe he does have a nack for scoring. I think with him it is a wait and see kinda thing where the Sabres can win either way. All that being said if he is not signed to an extension by the deadline... buh bye!

[PASabreFan]

So here we have a dedicated player who is a hard working blue collar kind of guy, since he's had to prove himself through every step of his career. A player that gets in front of the net and gets most of his goals in close. A consistent 30+ goal scorer (who hasn't been with Tavares for all of those 30+ goal years) and could be had for a reasonably low price. Not to mention all the talk about hitting the cap floor if/when Stafford and Miller are eliminated from this roster, on top of the fact we got a 1st and 2nd round to boot.

 

Isn't he exactly the kind of player Sabres fans have been dying for for years? Am I missing something? I just don't get it.

 

He should get a nice raise, no? And if the Sabres conclude they are several years from contending (three? five?), then Moulson's age and future production come into play. It seems like a moot point. Like Miller and Vanek, why would he want to go through Islanders Part Two?

[MattPie]

Just a quick note on Moulson. Right now he is shooting at .214% where as his average is .141% thus I would expect his scoring pace to slow and regress towards his average. Note that his season high sh% since he made it full time is .164%

 

For those of you who are math challenged like myself it means that currently Moulson is scoring on 21.4 out of 100 shots where as his average is 14.1 out of 100. Roughly speaking for a guy who takes a little over 200 shots a year this means he is on pace to score 10more goals than average. That seems unlikely but he could theoretically do it.

 

At his current pace based on shot percentage he would net 46.8goals on 218.6shots.

If you used his average shot percentage (.141) he would have 30.8goals and if you used his best (.164) 35.8goals. Both of which are very probable given his last 3 full seasons and even counting the lockout shortened season from last year.

 

Edit: Note that if you used his current GPGA he would get roughly 54.6goals this season which IMPO is not plausible.

 

And yet someone here will scream about the Sabres/RR/Hodgson suck because his production dropped off once he got here.

[Derrico]

So here we have a dedicated player who is a hard working blue collar kind of guy, since he's had to prove himself through every step of his career. A player that gets in front of the net and gets most of his goals in close. A consistent 30+ goal scorer (who hasn't been with Tavares for all of those 30+ goal years) and could be had for a reasonably low price. Not to mention all the talk about hitting the cap floor if/when Stafford and Miller are eliminated from this roster, on top of the fact we got a 1st and 2nd round to boot.

 

Isn't he exactly the kind of player Sabres fans have been dying for for years? Am I missing something? I just don't get it.

 

He hasn't? I'm not going to pretend to know the Isles lineup over the past four years but every season he had 30+ goals Jonny T was on the roster. I assume Tavares was also playing with him. I think I even read something to the effect that Moulson got his NHL career going playing with Tavares. Am I missing something?

[JJFIVEOH]

He should get a nice raise, no? And if the Sabres conclude they are several years from contending (three? five?), then Moulson's age and future production come into play. It seems like a moot point. Like Miller and Vanek, why would he want to go through Islanders Part Two?

 

He should get a nice raise. BFLO might be the right place for him to get the biggest raise. After all, most of us are in agreement that it might take more $$ to attract UFA's to this team in the near future. What better time than when you're not cap strapped? The Sabres are already going into their (arguably) third year of a rebuild. It's not like we're looking at 2018 as a possible year of contention. Moulson will be 30 tomorrow, not like he will be 38 when this team is good again. He could help keep them entertaining in the meantime.

 

Of course if he doesn't want to stay here, then it's a moot point. But we're not assuming that or else we'd have nothing to talk about. ;)

[LGR4GM]

And yet someone here will scream about the Sabres/RR/Hodgson suck because his production dropped off once he got here.

I am sure they will. They may also say Moulson is only as good as Tavares was etc... However the numbers demonstrate that currently if trends continue we should see the goal scoring pace for Moulson to drop by about .062% (I based this off of averaging his .141 and his highest .164 getting .152 which I would guess is probably where he falls this year considering his high start)

 

I should add again that we will have to wait and see with Moulson as it is far to early to tell how he will mesh or perform on this team or if he is in future plans.

[JJFIVEOH]

He hasn't? I'm not going to pretend to know the Isles lineup over the past four years but every season he had 30+ goals Jonny T was on the roster. I assume Tavares was also playing with him. I think I even read something to the effect that Moulson got his NHL career going playing with Tavares. Am I missing something?

 

From what I've gathered he didn't play with Tavares his first 30 goal season, and part of his second. I don't know where I read it, one was a forum discussion on another board, one was a Tweet. Take it for what it's worth, I just don't see him going from 32 goals a year average to 15.

[LGR4GM]

Moulson's story as told from the Island.

 

http://www.lighthous...-buffalo-sabres

 

and some perspective on Matt Moulson... the Islanders on Oct 11 planned on resigning him... lol

http://espn.go.com/n...e-big-pay-raise

 

After reading those two articles I can not fathom a good reason to trade Moulson for Vanek. Garth Snow is an idiot.

Edited October 31, 2013 by LGR4GM

[JJFIVEOH]

Moulson's story as told from the Island.

 

http://www.lighthous...-buffalo-sabres

 

and some perspective on Matt Moulson... the Islanders on Oct 11 planned on resigning him... lol

http://espn.go.com/n...e-big-pay-raise

 

After reading those two articles I can not fathom a good reason to trade Moulson for Vanek. Garth Snow is an idiot.

 

Good finds! :thumbsup:

[Weave]

So here we have a dedicated player who is a hard working blue collar kind of guy, since he's had to prove himself through every step of his career. A player that gets in front of the net and gets most of his goals in close. A consistent 30+ goal scorer (who hasn't been with Tavares for all of those 30+ goal years) and could be had for a reasonably low price. Not to mention all the talk about hitting the cap floor if/when Stafford and Miller are eliminated from this roster, on top of the fact we got a 1st and 2nd round to boot.

 

Isn't he exactly the kind of player Sabres fans have been dying for for years? Am I missing something? I just don't get it.

 

1. Do we have a prayer of even signing him? If any question at all, deal.

2. Is he going to be what he is now when the kids are ready to compete? If not sure, deal.

3. Is his price at the deadline going to be elevated to the point where it simply makes the most sense? Deal.

 

I agree that he may very well be the type of player we want to hang on to. But this is a total rebuild from the ground up. There will be other Moulson's to grab when the time is right if this one doesn't make sense.