What value in a contract for Skinner?

[Thorny]

On 12/20/2018 at 2:15 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

While I agree the Skinner needs Jack to maximize his effectiveness, but I disagree that Jack and the team doesn’t need Skinner as well.   They have elevated each other to new levels. To a certain extent it’s no different then combining Ratanen with MacKinnon.  Go look at Mac’s numbers before Ratanen arrived. Go look at Schiefele now that Laine is on his wing.  

Usually we talk about buying extra years with RFA re-signs, but the opposite is true on longer UFA deals.  Skinner will probably take a little less on an annualized basis to get a extra year or two. I’ll stick with 8.5 x 7 years.

It's Schiefele/Wheeler teaming up to cause damage. But point taken. 

Also, are you aware at what point the Sabres can offer that extra 8th year?

Edited December 22, 2018 by Thorny

[Sabel79]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It's Schiefele/Wheeler teaming up to cause damage. But point taken. 

Also, are you aware at what point the Sabres can offer that extra 8th year?

After the trade deadline.

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, Sabel79 said:

After the trade deadline.

So I guess we'll have to wait until after that to see him sign. If he doesn't move at the deadline, I guess that's a pretty good indication he's staying. 

[Ross Rhea]

Give him $50 million for 6 years and be done with it.

 

In 3 years that will be a bargain when he has 3 straight 50+ goal years.

[Taro T]

6 hours ago, Thorny said:

It's Schiefele/Wheeler teaming up to cause damage. But point taken. 

Also, are you aware at what point the Sabres can offer that extra 8th year?

 

6 hours ago, Sabel79 said:

After the trade deadline.

That's what the CBA says.  You need to be on the roster prior to the previous trade deadline to receive an 8 year contract.  But EVERY talking head says he can get that deal after January 1.  So, he either needs to wait ~2 weeks to get the 8 year deal or 3 more months.  Either way, really expect him to get 8 years, and considering the letter of the law says  he has to wait until after the trade deadline to get that deal but every talking head says 1/1 AND this IS the NHL we're dealing with; expect the 8 year deal before February.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Skinner wants 9 plus for 8 years.

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/sabres-can-easily-fit-big-skinner-contract-their-cap

[Sabres Fan in NS]

17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Skinner wants 9 plus for 8 years.

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/sabres-can-easily-fit-big-skinner-contract-their-cap

Who knows if the secret source is legit, but who cares ... I say give it to him.

[dudacek]

I don’t trust Jeremy White’s secret source. He’s burned us before.

That said, if Skinner starts there and the Sabres start at Kane’s 7 for 7, a middle ground of 8 times 8 does seem realistic and should be acceptable to both sides.

I find Skinner a limited player, but I admire his competitiveness, his fit on our team and his effect on the other team. Not to mention the fact that he is elite at the skill that matters most.

[Tondas]

JBOT - "Jeff, please fill in the blanks and send it back to me."

[Hoss]

48 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Skinner wants 9 plus for 8 years.

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/sabres-can-easily-fit-big-skinner-contract-their-cap

I never trust Jeremy White. His dumb secret source stuff has come up lame on several occasions.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Remember folks this is a negotiation. He can ask for anything.  This is the first salvo. Now we know and the Sabres the upper limit.

Skinner’s leverage is that he can leave and we really have no one to replace him.  He is also young enough to be part of the core going forward.

Our leverage is that he having a career year playing with the most gifted centers in the NHL.  He can search for greener grass, but is unlikely to find it. There aren’t many teams that have the combination of playoff contender, cap room to take on an expensive player and a top 5 -10 center to maximize his career. 

[...]

I don't buy the 9x8 ask.

[Eleven]

7 minutes ago, ... said:

I don't buy the 9x8 ask.

Oh, I totally buy it as an ask. It's just not where it will end up.

[LGR4GM]

10 hours ago, Santa Claus said:

Oh, I totally buy it as an ask. It's just not where it will end up.

I agree. I just looked there's only 22 players over 8 mil and there's only 4 wingers I think. I'm not sure skinner get command 9. Maybe as a ufa but I'd say he wants to stay. 

[StuckinFL]

I'm not entirely sure that Skinner was ever seriously considered long term here until recently. I think that JBot considered him a pure rental to keep the ship a bit more entertaining while the kids develop as a unit to keep season ticket holders happy. The borderline riot the ST holders threw after last year meant something had to be done. 

That being said I think there is consideration to keep him at a discounted price now. But the fact of the matter is that Skinner can't do what he's doing this year without Jack. And you're already paying Jack for his ability to lift the play up of those around him. No need to pay for it twice over. I think he'll be offered 7.5 for 7 or 7 for 8. Because it's a hell of alot easier to develop or bring in a winger that Jack can lift up to this level than it is to find a Center that can lift Skinner up to this level.

I just can't see JBot thinking it a good strategy to pay a premium price to keep his top line heavy on both forwards and defense (because we all know Dahlin is gonna get PAID when his contract comes up) and allowing his middle 6 to be mediocre. We're seeing the limitations of that now and we will never pass the ceiling we are currently at with that strategy. I know we're all excited that we are winning games, but this team is not a SC winning team. Not yet by a long shot.

Basically, what would you pay Skinner if he had to stay on the 2nd line away from Jack. Because that's his worth. Playing with Jack is his bonus and you shouldn't pay him for Jack's talent. Jack already is getting paid for that.

[nfreeman]

A few reality-driven principles are worth emphasizing:

- There is NFW that Skinner accepts anything less than a 7-year deal.

- Skinner might not hold out for the absolute last dollar if he is happy here, but there is NFW he is taking, say, a 20% discount to stay here, no matter how much he likes playing with Eichel.  So if someone offers him $8.5MM x 8 years, for a total of $68MM -- the Sabres are going to need to offer him at least $62MM, even if his center on the $68MM team is Ville Freaking Leino. 

- Skinner's decision will almost certainly be based on total $$, not average $$ per year.

[StuckinFL]

32 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

A few reality-driven principles are worth emphasizing:

- There is NFW that Skinner accepts anything less than a 7-year deal.

- Skinner might not hold out for the absolute last dollar if he is happy here, but there is NFW he is taking, say, a 20% discount to stay here, no matter how much he likes playing with Eichel.  So if someone offers him $8.5MM x 8 years, for a total of $68MM -- the Sabres are going to need to offer him at least $62MM, even if his center on the $68MM team is Ville Freaking Leino. 

- Skinner's decision will almost certainly be based on total $$, not average $$ per year.

But I think you're overestimating where teams that could afford that are going to be over the next 4/5 years. This is a team on its way to ascendance. A future SC contender and he's on the top line. So that will be taken into consideration.

Also, I don't think Skinner will be offered that. Not every GM is a gambling man with deep pockets and cap space. The fact is that there is evidence not only in previous years, but in this year as well when he was off Jack's line, that away from Jack that Skinner is not going to reach this level again. We're adding cash over an 8 year contract span that comes to anywhere of a 12 to 16 million dollar gamble that he will be this player for years to come with any decent center. I think his most ludicrous offer might be 8 for 6 or 7 years but not necessarily on a team you wanna play for.

With the league getting younger and faster I see term being way more valuable than in the past decade and until the cap numbers come in after Seattle, I don't expect GMs to play with that kind of money yet in case it doesn't go up quite as high as they believe. 

Skinner knew coming here meant that in his contract year he'd have the opportunity to put up career numbers with Jack as his center and it would drive up his value. I don't think he knew how high that ceiling was. And with Jack as his center and no real competition for his job at the moment, he can be a star on a team that is going to be something truly special in 2 years (hopefully). That's why I think he'll consider taking a 3.5 to 4 million discount to stay here. 

[nfreeman]

@StuckinFL — i assume you mean a discount of $3.5MM to $4MM in total, right?  Not per year?  If so, I agree that he might go for that as long as the term is 7 or 8 years.  But I also think his per-year number starts with an 8.  

[Weave]

Super lines are how rosters are built today.  Look around the league.  JBott better be prepared to pay a premium price to keep his top line heavy with forwards. 

[StuckinFL]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

@StuckinFL — i assume you mean a discount of $3.5MM to $4MM in total, right?  Not per year?  If so, I agree that he might go for that as long as the term is 7 or 8 years.  But I also think his per-year number starts with an 8.  

In total over term yes. I don't see any teams offering him 8 or more for 7/8. Only for 6 or less. There's alot of bad anchor deals out there for too much term that have blown up and I see a course correction occurring (Evander Kane excluding) over the past few years in comparison to the past as the cap ceiling didn't increase the way most GMs had anticipated over the past half decade. Wether or not Skinner takes the deal remains to be seen. But Skinner is definitely a luxury, not a necessity on this team. Jack can elevate another winger to almost his level for a fraction of the price.

I just don't see any teams around the league that NEED a winger like him, have a center that can elevate him to that level and that have an opening on their first line, have the price and term available, are poised to be contenders and not rebuilding or declining before he starts to decline, and have a GM that is willing to gamble that he's this player and not a 30g player that's having his career year this season. I can see a team attempting to overpay to get him for a cup run this year, but not the other scenario.

I think that we've been so bad for so long that instead of looking at what Skinner is worth to the rest of the NHL, we're instead focused on what we would pay him to keep him and keep this warm glow alive for as long as possible. And we would pay far more to keep him than most teams would pay to acquire him. We would be the highest bidder, which means JBot is negotiating from a very strong position.

[inkman]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Super lines are how rosters are built today.  Look around the league.  JBott better be prepared to pay a premium price to keep his top line heavy with forwards. 

Especially with Reino solidifying the top line at a relative discount. Lock up Skinner, then deal with Bogo, Okposo and other large cap hits that will need addressing. It's why you keep the farm stocked. Move on from the higher paid guys and backfill with draft picks/ lower paid guys that can do the job. I'm confident JBOT will orchestrate it properly. 

[Gatorman0519]

2 hours ago, inkman said:

Especially with Reino solidifying the top line at a relative discount. Lock up Skinner, then deal with Bogo, Okposo and other large cap hits that will need addressing. It's why you keep the farm stocked. Move on from the higher paid guys and backfill with draft picks/ lower paid guys that can do the job. I'm confident JBOT will orchestrate it properly. 

Correct ….salary cap management and organizational structuring for long term success is JBot's skill.  I highly doubt he will overpay to keep Skinner here.  Skinner, and everyone else knows, Jack is the reason he will have a career year.  I would not be shocked if JBot gets him with a $7.5 mill type deal.  No way I think he signs him anything over $8.5.  If Skinner is smart, he takes it, keeps scoring goals, and is part of a team on the rise to contending status.

[StuckinFL]

1 hour ago, Gatorman0519 said:

Correct ….salary cap management and organizational structuring for long term success is JBot's skill.  I highly doubt he will overpay to keep Skinner here.  Skinner, and everyone else knows, Jack is the reason he will have a career year.  I would not be shocked if JBot gets him with a $7.5 mill type deal.  No way I think he signs him anything over $8.5.  If Skinner is smart, he takes it, keeps scoring goals, and is part of a team on the rise to contending status.

My point exactly. I just don't see the offers coming in for 9 for 8 or anything ridiculous like that. The most ridiculous offers for Skinner will be at the trade deadline as a 1yr rental (which even if the offers are there I don't see us taking them. ST holders would riot as there's no one ready to take up that production YET) and hovering at 8 or slightly above. But I don't see a full 7 or 8 for that $.

Skinner is amazing, but he's the first great winger Jack has played with. For crying out loud last year there were those of us clamoring for Girgs to be on Jack's wing for production. Skinner's numbers are more of a testament to how far Jack can lift up another player not named Kane. There's no way you overpay a winger based on the talent of his center unless you're Tim Murray. And we saw how that strategy worked with Moulson and Okposo.

[Huckleberry]

Looking back at that trade, not even in EA you could get it done.   We fleeced the hurricanes.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

21 hours ago, StuckinFL said:

I'm not entirely sure that Skinner was ever seriously considered long term here until recently. I think that JBot considered him a pure rental to keep the ship a bit more entertaining while the kids develop as a unit to keep season ticket holders happy. The borderline riot the ST holders threw after last year meant something had to be done. 

That being said I think there is consideration to keep him at a discounted price now. But the fact of the matter is that Skinner can't do what he's doing this year without Jack. And you're already paying Jack for his ability to lift the play up of those around him. No need to pay for it twice over. I think he'll be offered 7.5 for 7 or 7 for 8. Because it's a hell of alot easier to develop or bring in a winger that Jack can lift up to this level than it is to find a Center that can lift Skinner up to this level.

I just can't see JBot thinking it a good strategy to pay a premium price to keep his top line heavy on both forwards and defense (because we all know Dahlin is gonna get PAID when his contract comes up) and allowing his middle 6 to be mediocre. We're seeing the limitations of that now and we will never pass the ceiling we are currently at with that strategy. I know we're all excited that we are winning games, but this team is not a SC winning team. Not yet by a long shot.

Basically, what would you pay Skinner if he had to stay on the 2nd line away from Jack. Because that's his worth. Playing with Jack is his bonus and you shouldn't pay him for Jack's talent. Jack already is getting paid for that.

I don't totally agree with you. I think Skinner is almost as important to Jack as Jack is to Skinner.

How many wingers have we tried with Jack and had "limited" success over the last few years. Jack's breaking out is partly due to Skinner and alot to do with his own efforts too. If it were proven that Jack could lift any winger, we wouldn't have had to go get Skinner. Skinner was a proven scorer before coming here and Jack has reaped the benefits from that as well. If we let Skinner go we might not find a winger that meshes with Jack that well for a while.

They both deserve credit where credit is due.

As for teams who can afford Skinner and have room for him? Try the Islanders, Montreal, and the one that scares me most is Canucks. Boston could maybe work him in and the Coyotes could afford him, along with some others like the Avs. Skinner likely wouldn't want to go to Coyotes. Islanders have several UFA's and I wouldn't be surprised they don't sign them all and go after someone "like" Skinner. The Avs wouldn't likely break up their top line but what if they did and sign Skinner....it would create even more scoring depth. The reason I say that the Canucks scare me the most is Pettersson...need I say more? Young and skilled team needs a Skinner to elevate them to another level. 

Skinner likes it here and that remains our biggest hope in signing him. 

Edited December 25, 2018 by MakeSabresGrr8Again