GDT Montreal at Buffalo Sabres 7pm ET 10-25-2018

[That Aud Smell]

28 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

If you think the subtraction of ROR

God bless you, sir. Good stuff.

Also, I still sorta think the team having a better vibe is helping matters.

21 minutes ago, sabills said:

10 internet points to you.

2 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

STL is 2-7 and DFL in their division.

DeLuca .500!!

The whole being less than the sum of its parts. That sort of thing seems to follow ROR around a bit, innit?

20 minutes ago, darksabre said:

tl;dr

very much worth reading.

[darksabre]

3 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

God bless you, sir. Good stuff.

Also, I still sorta think the team having a better vibe is helping matters.

10 internet points to you.

DeLuca .500!!

The whole being less than the sum of its parts. That sort of thing seems to follow ROR around a bit, innit?

very much worth reading.

I read it, I'm just being a jerk.

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Flagg -- I get your point.  It's not unreasonable.

But it's also not just about the numbers.

It's pretty clear that there were major problems with the team's mental makeup over the past few seasons.  The guys who run hockey teams for a living were in much better positions than we are to evaluate those problems and to come up with solutions. 

One of those solutions was to ship ROR out.

So far, the combined effect of the various solutions they implemented has been a pronounced improvement in the team.  Would this improvement have occurred anyway if they had kept ROR but implemented all of the other solutions?  Maybe, maybe not.  We'll never know.

But the team is unquestionably faster and better, and they seem to like each other more.

And (trigger warning!) it can't be ignored that STL is 2-7 and DFL in their division.

This is surface analysis though, and it does nothing for me. 

There must be something wrong with McDavid because Edmonton is so bad, right? 

Hockey is always a team game, until some narrative pops out, and then everyone loses the plot. 

You're aware that if you go to anything that gets measured ont he ice, and click to the bottom of the 700 NHL players in the league, you see about six players that got regular minutes for this team last year, right? 

Bad players playing a lot of minutes does so much more than one player, who was actually liked given all available evidence (like things Jack says off-the-cuff in chill interviews during the summer) having a "vortex of sadness" that's a mild version of the one that almost killed their goalie who 

a.) played a position of much more importance
b.) was SO MUCH WORSE at that job than ROR was at his

And like I said, something tells me ROR's post-game interviews aren't overpowering his over-point-per-game scoring from their center spot, the highest they've had from a center in years, when you look at the worst starting goalie in the league behind him.

Like, if we have this same discussion, but switch ROR with Chad Johnson, we're actually getting somewhere that represents reality. 

[Randall Flagg]

The positive vibes from the netminding duo, the positive vibes from Sheary, Skinner, Berglund (who could have been had for Justin Bailey without a doubt, from a GM who had been trying actively to dump the contract for a calendar year before the trade) would absolutely f*cking not have been suppressed by a guy who WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN AS SAD with a team actually worth something around him, because winning isn't as bad as losing.

I'm serious - if I would have known the stink that one freaking milquetoast quote from one goddamn interview would have caused, I would have just stepped away from the internet the second it happened.

[PASabreFan]

Too lazy to go back and quote it, but Smell's calling for Kruppstahl to self-reflect was a bit over the line. If he saw a boring game, he saw a boring game. We all see it differently, and a lot of it has to do with your mood/how your day was/etc. I mean, I wasn't nearly as enamored with the Sabres' play early on as a lot of posters here (neither was Phil, we found out).

On to the end of the game: Reinhart's goal had me flashing back to Danny Briere's winner in playoff OT against the Flyers. Also, I can't keep looking at Dahlin's no-look pass to Okposo.

[darksabre]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

The positive vibes from the netminding duo, the positive vibes from Sheary, Skinner, Berglund (who could have been had for Justin Bailey without a doubt, from a GM who had been trying actively to dump the contract for a calendar year before the trade) would absolutely f*cking not have been suppressed by a guy who WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN AS SAD with a team actually worth something around him, because winning isn't as bad as losing.

I'm serious - if I would have known the stink that one freaking milquetoast quote from one goddamn interview would have caused, I would have just stepped away from the internet the second it happened.

The thing here is, you don't know as much about what was going on in that locker room as I do. And so you're downplaying the effects. Which is understandable. 

But you need to believe me when I tell you that moving out guys like O'Reilly and Lehner was way more important than you think. 

[Randall Flagg]

I don't mean to sour the GDT of an amazing game with this stuff. 

I can make a laundry list of comebacks ROR was involved with in his time here, directly affecting more than, say, Eichel did tonight. He's done it about three times in Boston. Home against Calgary, 2016. in Vegas last year. The OT winner at home against LA, the following year home against LA, down 2-0, starting the comeback for the 6-3 win with the ridiculous backhand goal while working Kopitar and Doughty. Home against Detroit and NYI, games we trailed in the third while playing like absolute dog-sh*t, each time being tied by ROR and sqeaking out points and OT wins in at least one case. 

He was too sad though, and the mystics behind it are what drove us being bad, they weren't a product of it. 

I'm actively offended by that take, actually. I should probably tap out.

[sabills]

4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The positive vibes from the netminding duo, the positive vibes from Sheary, Skinner, Berglund (who could have been had for Justin Bailey without a doubt, from a GM who had been trying actively to dump the contract for a calendar year before the trade) would absolutely f*cking not have been suppressed by a guy who WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN AS SAD with a team actually worth something around him, because winning isn't as bad as losing.

I'm serious - if I would have known the stink that one freaking milquetoast quote from one goddamn interview would have caused, I would have just stepped away from the internet the second it happened.

I'm generally with you on this sort of thing, hence the first part of my post, but it wasn't just one quote. Dude was ALWAYS just playing up the bad side in his interviews and being generally down on himself.

[Randall Flagg]

7 minutes ago, darksabre said:

The thing here is, you don't know as much about what was going on in that locker room as I do. And so you're downplaying the effects. Which is understandable. 

But you need to believe me when I tell you that moving out guys like O'Reilly and Lehner was way more important than you think. 

Even if ROR was as bad as Lehner, the on-ice replacement is a net-negative. 

Dumping the player who was actually bad and way more depressed, along with pointed roster additions that were made, you cannot convince me that we'd still have huge problems as a team, unless ROR was like threatening to murder his teammates.

 

5 minutes ago, sabills said:

I'm generally with you on this sort of thing, hence the first part of my post, but it wasn't just one quote. Dude was ALWAYS just playing up the bad side in his interviews and being generally down on himself.

The guy was given 33 defensive zone draws with proven-worst-players-in-the-league per sixty minutes, a record by far for any top six player ever, and artificially suppressing his ES rates because of it, while being on the worst team in the league in that important role. 

Interview quotes don't matter. They weren't even bad. I always got the impression he was just doing what he thought leaders did, taking blame off their teammates, and that the act got tired with fans because we were so bad so he had to do it every single night.

I'm not going to lie, I think this whole thing is a freaking joke. 

Edited October 26, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[sabills]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

Even if ROR was as bad as Lehner, the on-ice replacement is a net-negative. 

Dumping the player who was actually bad and way more depressed, along with pointed roster additions that were made, you cannot convince me that we'd still have huge problems as a team, unless ROR was like threatening to murder his teammates.

 

I do wonder if some of it could have been avoided by giving Jack the C while ROR was still here. I think he puts a lot of ***** on his shoulders, and handing that off officially to someone else might have helped.

[Randall Flagg]

And then even if you got me to believe that ROR had to be gone, artificially suppressing his value in a garbage role I called out all season long and assigning an arbitrary deadline because of money that every team knew was there, backing us into a corner, amid swirling locker room rumors you helped start, is the worst and most-disgusting management of a top 3 asset I can even imagine.

[Eleven]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

amid swirling locker room rumors you helped start,

??

[nfreeman]

Flagg -- I think you know that for those who are either trusting management on the ROR decision or at least giving them the benefit of the doubt, ROR's issues weren't his interviews.  It was the overall effect his presence had on his teammates.  The interviews were just the manifestation of those issues that were most visible to outsiders (ie us).

Sometimes at work, an employee can be good at making his/her numbers, but no one wants to work with him/her or be around him/her, and the overall effect is to drag down the company's performance.  That employee isn't "good at his/her job" -- because part of the job is not to drag down those around you.

Again, I respect your statistical analysis (apparently more than you respect my metaphysical speculation, but that's OK).  But I think it has its limitations.

[Doohickie]

11 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I can't keep looking at Dahlin's no-look pass to Okposo.

Someone pointed it out, that Jack indicated that Dahlin should pass to Okie instead of to Jack, and Dahlin made the pass. 

I missed that originally but it 's clear as day on the replays.  In my mind I imagine the team working on the power play in practice and HCPH and Jack and Okie coaching Dahlin about how to QB the PP from the top of the umbrella, and imagine that based on the read of the PK that Dahlin should pass either left or right, and Jack was merely reminding Dahlin what the correct read was for that situation.

The whole play tells me so much:  Jack in a leadership role as the play unfolds (even though he hasn't touched the puck), Dahlin being the quick study and knowing what to do with a quick prompt, Okie cocked and ready to shoot once Dahlin feeds his wheelhouse.  This team is functioning together in a unit in a way they haven't for years.  We used to use the term dysfunctional to describe the Sabres.  Well guess what?  Now they're functional.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

13 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

A big part of that sequence was Nelson (I think ... #8 at the top of the line) with his stick up in anticipation of a one-timer.  It seems that was just enough to through off the two high Habs and it left a lane to McCabe open to get the actual pass.

No assist for #8, but an awesome contribution to the goal, IMO.

[WildCard]

@BJWilsonWGR
The #Sabres will go for their fourth straight win tomorrow night in Columbus. The last time they won four straight was back on December 15, 2014. They beat Ottawa in a shootout that night, then went on to lose 19 of their next 20 games, including 14 straight losses in regulation.

???

[Doohickie]

17 minutes ago, N S said:

A big part of that sequence was Nelson (I think ... #8 at the top of the line) with his stick up in anticipation of a one-timer.  It seems that was just enough to through off the two high Habs and it left a lane to McCabe open to get the actual pass.

No assist for #8, but an awesome contribution to the goal, IMO.

The other subtlety that points to the "5-man unit" concept is that Sheary rotates up high to the point.  Both D recognize this, with Nelson cocked and ready to shoot, but also drifting left along the blue line to cover McCabe's point while McCabe rotates down to the half wall to receive Sheary's pass.  Yes, Nelson was a big part of that play:  He drew two defenders over to himself without ever touching the puck, but just as important was McCabe finding the soft spot on the half wall so that even though he didn't receive Sheary's pass cleanly, he was still able to recover and get a good pass off to Reino.  In fact, the flubbed pass actually played to the Sabres favor as the goal-front defender came out toward McCabe to try to recover the loose puck, but McCabe got there first and was able to get it to an uncovered Reinhart.

None of that happens though if two defenders don't get drawn to Nelson up high.

Edited October 26, 2018 by Doohickie

[WildCard]

We outshot Montreal 42-22 last night. We absolutely dominated them

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20182019&game=20135&view=limited

[Sabres Fan in NS]

A character building win.  Another one.

This has not happened in a very long time.

[...]

44 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Even if ROR was as bad as Lehner, the on-ice replacement is a net-negative. 

This statement, and your insistence on dismissing the non-quantitative factors in team-building indicates you simply don't want to believe that there is more to a successful grouping of humans than metrics.  

ROR is a part of the group that was moved out.  It has worked.  There's your metric on that.

Sabres + ROR = 0

Sabres - ROR = 1

Edited October 26, 2018 by ...

[...]

Here's the Eichel-Dahlin-KO play...

 

[LTS]

 

45 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

This is surface analysis though, and it does nothing for me. 

There must be something wrong with McDavid because Edmonton is so bad, right? 

Hockey is always a team game, until some narrative pops out, and then everyone loses the plot. 

You're aware that if you go to anything that gets measured ont he ice, and click to the bottom of the 700 NHL players in the league, you see about six players that got regular minutes for this team last year, right? 

Bad players playing a lot of minutes does so much more than one player, who was actually liked given all available evidence (like things Jack says off-the-cuff in chill interviews during the summer) having a "vortex of sadness" that's a mild version of the one that almost killed their goalie who 

a.) played a position of much more importance
b.) was SO MUCH WORSE at that job than ROR was at his

And like I said, something tells me ROR's post-game interviews aren't overpowering his over-point-per-game scoring from their center spot, the highest they've had from a center in years, when you look at the worst starting goalie in the league behind him.

Like, if we have this same discussion, but switch ROR with Chad Johnson, we're actually getting somewhere that represents reality. 

McDavid has only ever played on one team who has a history of completely sucking.  So, its not the same as ROR who has played on two teams who have not accomplished much while he was on them.  The St. Louis Blues experiment is underway.  You can point to the goaltender but they've a ton of talent.

42 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The positive vibes from the netminding duo, the positive vibes from Sheary, Skinner, Berglund (who could have been had for Justin Bailey without a doubt, from a GM who had been trying actively to dump the contract for a calendar year before the trade) would absolutely f*cking not have been suppressed by a guy who WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN AS SAD with a team actually worth something around him, because winning isn't as bad as losing.

I'm serious - if I would have known the stink that one freaking milquetoast quote from one goddamn interview would have caused, I would have just stepped away from the internet the second it happened.

 

37 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I don't mean to sour the GDT of an amazing game with this stuff. 

I can make a laundry list of comebacks ROR was involved with in his time here, directly affecting more than, say, Eichel did tonight. He's done it about three times in Boston. Home against Calgary, 2016. in Vegas last year. The OT winner at home against LA, the following year home against LA, down 2-0, starting the comeback for the 6-3 win with the ridiculous backhand goal while working Kopitar and Doughty. Home against Detroit and NYI, games we trailed in the third while playing like absolute dog-sh*t, each time being tied by ROR and sqeaking out points and OT wins in at least one case. 

He was too sad though, and the mystics behind it are what drove us being bad, they weren't a product of it. 

I'm actively offended by that take, actually. I should probably tap out.

If you are offended by this, then I would agree with you.  You keep going back to the numbers game but you said it yourself. The pieces that are making a difference this year were on the roster last year.  

ROR is a really good hockey player and no one is denying that. However, teams that he's been one have not had great success and there's no denying that. In the world of statistical correlation and causation it might not be possible to map, but that does not change reality.

It's very possible to have a great player on the team who looks like he's a real boon to the team but still annoys everyone else so much that they don't realize their full potential (or don't necessarily want to). 

If you cannot accept that other players who are still here care more because O'Reilly is gone then you are completely dismissing any concept of psychology.  There's no reason to doubt what d4rk is saying.  It also fits with what is happening right now on this team.  There are other things that are contributing to it as well without a doubt.

One last thought, there's no way to prove that this team, right now, if it had ROR instead of say... Sobotka & Berglund would be playing better.  You can't point to what he is doing in St. Louis as proof because that's a different team with different dynamics.  

Bottom line, this year the team has a different mindset and on the ice it shows.  Losing ROR has certainly not hurt the team one bit and there's no proof they would be better if he were still here.  

[That Aud Smell]

42 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

amid swirling locker room rumors you helped start

40 minutes ago, Eleven said:

??

Um. yeah.

 

[Mustache of God]

12 minutes ago, ... said:

Here's the Eichel-Dahlin-KO play...

 

That "CLINK" is so damn satisfying. 

[That Aud Smell]

55 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'm serious - if I would have known the stink that one freaking milquetoast quote from one goddamn interview would have caused, I would have just stepped away from the internet the second it happened.

Your takes are good ones.

But what the hell is happening here?

52 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Too lazy to go back and quote it, but Smell's calling for Kruppstahl to self-reflect was a bit over the line. If he saw a boring game, he saw a boring game. We all see it differently, and a lot of it has to do with your mood/how your day was/etc. I mean, I wasn't nearly as enamored with the Sabres' play early on as a lot of posters here (neither was Phil, we found out).

Over the line? Sheesh. I think you're use of that phrase in this regard is ... over the line.

You're right to point out that how you experience a game (or anything, for that matter) is affected in large part by how things are going in your life.  I certainly didn't mean to take a shot at someone who might be having a bad time of it personally. If I did so, I apologize @Kruppstahl

My point was: That game was objectively good for the home team, by any measure. And it was even more definitively fantastic for fans who have been starved for that sort of thing. If you're a Sabres fan and didn't see it as a good, fun game, and with the caveat immediately above, I'm not just not sure what you were watching.

51 minutes ago, darksabre said:

The thing here is, you don't know as much about what was going on in that locker room as I do. And so you're downplaying the effects. Which is understandable. 

But you need to believe me when I tell you that moving out guys like O'Reilly and Lehner was way more important than you think. 

Good contribution.

50 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'm actively offended by that take, actually. I should probably tap out.

Maybe so. It's perfectly okay for people to disagree on stuff like this.

48 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'm not going to lie, I think this whole thing is a freaking joke. 

Eeesh. C'mon, man.