GDT Montreal at Buffalo Sabres 7pm ET 10-25-2018

[WildCard]

lol no Kruppstahl's take was a bad one. That game was objectively very exciting, that's it.

Is this what we're gonna do in every thread now? Have apology offs and try and finger point? Jesus guys come on

[Eleven]

I don't know if this was addressed earlier, but anyone want to comment on Eichel stepping to Nic Deslauriers?  I didn't think it was the smartest move.  If a fight or even a tussle had resulted, the Sabres are trading 2 or 5 minutes of Jack in the Box (pun intended) for the same amount of time of Deslauriers in the box.  Bad idea.

[WildCard]

Just now, Eleven said:

I don't know if this was addressed earlier, but anyone want to comment on Eichel stepping to Nic Deslauriers?  I didn't think it was the smartest move.  If a fight or even a tussle had resulted, the Sabres are trading 2 or 5 minutes of Jack in the Box (pun intended) for the same amount of time of Deslauriers in the box.  Bad idea.

I missed it, have the clip? On the flip side he is the captain, and that's something he has to do

[Eleven]

Just now, WildCard said:

I missed it, have the clip? On the flip side he is the captain, and that's something he has to do

I don't have a clip.  It was early in the first.

[stuuuuuuuuu]

I didn't notice Des at all

[WildCard]

 

 

Edited October 26, 2018 by WildCard

[Wyldnwoody44]

He had a cage on too, so that wouldn't have been smart 

[That Aud Smell]

13 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I don't know if this was addressed earlier, but anyone want to comment on Eichel stepping to Nic Deslauriers?  I didn't think it was the smartest move.  If a fight or even a tussle had resulted, the Sabres are trading 2 or 5 minutes of Jack in the Box (pun intended) for the same amount of time of Deslauriers in the box.  Bad idea.

Terrible idea in the immediate-term.

Long-term, though? Such a move might finally, totally, and completely dispel the pall cast by ROR's mopey miasma.

(Sorry, not sorry, @Randall Flagg)

[Sabres Fan in NS]

25 minutes ago, WildCard said:

lol no Kruppstahl's take was a bad one. That game was objectively very exciting, that's it.

Is this what we're gonna do in every thread now? Have apology offs and try and finger point? Jesus guys come on

Just imagine if the Sabres lost and still stank / stunk.

[Andrew Amerk]

4 hours ago, inkman said:

I can't blame season ticket holders trying to recoup a little of their thousands they spend on season tickets. The prices are absurd. 

I feel worse for the Bills STH’s, which includes my poor father. 

[Andrew Amerk]

11 minutes ago, WildCard said:

 

 

My eyesight might be terrible...who is the coach on the bench that had zero reaction?

Also, love Hutton’s reaction. 

Edited October 26, 2018 by Andrew Amerk

[Taro T]

24 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I don't know if this was addressed earlier, but anyone want to comment on Eichel stepping to Nic Deslauriers?  I didn't think it was the smartest move.  If a fight or even a tussle had resulted, the Sabres are trading 2 or 5 minutes of Jack in the Box (pun intended) for the same amount of time of Deslauriers in the box.  Bad idea.

Thought they were more just chirping with each other than getting ready to come to blows.

Okposo & Byron looked to be closer to going at it than Nic & Jack.

[SwampD]

13 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

My eyesight might be terrible...who is the coach on the bench that had zero reaction?

Also, love Hutton’s reaction. 

He's the guy who had money on Montreal.

[Randall Flagg]

I'm going to try this again without being obnoxious. 

There is absolutely a human element to hockey teams. These guys have to be together in close quarters for large stretches of time. I don't discount any of this, and never did. 

On the ice
Last season, the Sabres depth scoring was the worst in the league. If you want to see the exact numbers, I made a thread about it about six months ago, complete with charts. Behind the top six scoring forwards for every team in the league, we had the least amount of production. Our top six production was not great, but it was middling, and it wasn't bottom-5, and would have been in the mid-tier had Eichel stayed healthy. Furthermore, last season most underlying metrics and scoring rates for our top six forwards were the best they had ever been in those players' Sabres careers. But again, we started the year winning 3 of our first ten instead of six, because every time ROR or Jack wasn't on the ice, at least two of the bottom ~10 players in the entire league were, out of a sample size of probably 700. Right now, Erod-Mitts-Okposo and the checking line was switched out with a conglomerate of Matt Moulson, Seth Griffith, and flipping out Berglund on that line for Jordan Nolan. Pominville was with Eichel, but his legs were gone compared to now, and the other side was Zemgus or Kane, and not Skinner. Furthermore, the goaltending duo, despite being in front of a team that was in the top half of the league in allowing shots and high danger shots, was the second-worst tandem in the league, behind that of the team that added said starter as an upgrade to allowing the second most goals since the full-season lockout. 

Of course, I believe that this all adds up to what we saw last year. It more than explains everything, fully. Any sort of fallout in interviews (ROR), on-ice demeanor (Jack's slumped shoulders, Okie's Vanek-face recreation, Risto's frustrated just-clear-it-out attitude, etc) are typical of any team that's going through what this team did. It's, fallout. It isn't driving. What drives on-ice success is the product you put on the ice, along with some bounces, some timely hot streaks. 

Interviews, Problems off the ice
It has been very clear that this team had maybe 3, maybe more, people in the locker room going through some heavy personal sh*t last year. It's clear that number one in this category is Robin Lehner. Robin almost died. He was taking pills and a twelve pack to bed every night so he could sleep. Furthermore, as it relates to on-the-ice, it's an objective hockey fact that the only single player that can solely determine the outcome of a game with any real consistency on a standings-affecting-level is the goalie. Because of this hell that Robin had to endure, the team's performance suffered. And there absolutely had to be strain on these guys' shoulders in the locker room. They're worried about their friend. It sucks, and we're all glad Robin is getting better. This has all been documented and we have a pretty good understanding of it. Separately, if Robin had been in a better place, and had put out a season more in line with his previous one, the league-leading one goal losses might have been fewer, and the season wouldn't have been as bad. 

Similarly, apparently ROR has some demons, and Okposo was fighting his own as well. It's real, it's human. 

Of these three players, I recall two major interview tropes. Robin had a tendency of deflecting blame to the team in front of him (and he was, quite frankly, often correct). Ryan, since he got here and assumed a leadership role, would shoulder the blame himself for everything that went on the ice, and it's clear that it ate at him. It sucked to listen to, and posters here and elswhere would get very annoyed. "Why don't you do something to change it, Ryan, instead of saying the same things over and over again?" I don't think this is fair, but whatever. I never said anything when it was going on, because I don't care about what guys have to say when it's the mid-season grind and the team is so bad that they have to talk after loss after loss, and ultimately reduce to the same tropes to get the interview over with. 

I guess here's where I'm going - which of these players needed to be cast out of the locker room, considering all of their issues and how it affected their play on the ice? 

With all of what was going on in Ryan's head, something that literally hasn't gotten out to anybody unless dark feels like he can share (he has no obligation to), well, there's nothing well-defined here at all, aside from the "woe is me vortex" that Vogl shamelessly tweets about with a tone that is disgusting for somebody who pretends to be all sympathetic to mental issues.

If we can't get these details, then I think some of the speculation that goes on here is ridiculous, which is why I'm using the phrasing that has ruffled feathers, and I'll try to stop. 

Furthermore, NHL teams carry 23 skaters. I would like to see evidence that
a.) There isn't somebody dealing with things as bad as ROR or worse on 95% of hockey teams, because just in my dealings with humans and reading rudimentary mental health statistics, that seems overwhelmingly likely among a population as driven as these humans are
b.) These players consistently are a barrier to on-ice success in ways that on-ice talent and lack-of-talent can't explain, and
c.) how it ties into the following:

The team getting a better attitude sans ROR
Say we make every single move this offseason, except for the ROR trade. But we still add Berglund, because there are quotes going back a full year which indicate Armstrong was actively calling people trying to unload the contract and that nobody could bite. Even if we didn't, we're down one roster player (Berglund and Sobotka, one of them upgraded to an elite member of the two-way-forward category). What about this year's success wouldn't have been replicated? In ten games, this team has created five goals 5v5 that had nothing to do with Jack or Jeff, a guy who was already here, and a guy who would have been added anyway. Of those goals, I can picture one that has integral involvement of a player that wasn't here last year, Sheary's yesterday, and Sheary himself was brought in before ROR was shipped out. Most importantly, our goaltending performance (the upgrade we made in the one position that can consistently affect standings, and a direct addressing of a mental issue that we DO know tangible things about, issues that can be directly tied to last season's results) has been rock solid compared to anything we've seen in years. 

And yes, the humans are having more fun. Are they having more fun and thus the fun is driving wins? Or are the additions of good personalities also direct upgrades to positions that were tangible reasons we were so bad last year? Because they sure as hell have been playing better than the laundry list of worst-players-in-the-league which got real ice time for us all season. As a result of actually winning some of these close games, of course things are a lot more fun. So why wouldn't this have 
a.) helped O'Reilly, who seemed to have fun and had no rumblings of this stuff during Colorado's fun season in 13-14
b.) still existed if ROR was here because of things that still have yet to be well-defined without giving generic locker room quotes from a key player on bad teams

Why would this effect have been muted? Would these guys have been less infectiously positive, eyeing ROR in the corner of the room solemnly? Why? Would their efforts in the corners be less, their on-ice vision clouded, just knowing that down there on the end of the bench sits the bearded vegan? Show to me that this is the case, and show me it's unique to that player and this locker room. Show me why players who DON'T come out with their problems (ROR hasn't) yet still exist in every locker room in this league, don't have the same thing happen to their teams. What's the mechanism. I want to see it described. This is not me deferring to stats and only metrics. This isn't a "stats versus eye test" thing. It's a challenge to a claim that I find weak, ill-defined, vaguely referenced. 

Furthermore, they believe in themselves, but didn't before because of ROR's sadness and its affect on the locker room. "Last year's team would have lost games they were trailing." Please differentiate the ways they would have lost as they pertain to attitude versus the fact that they were an objectively worse team last year too. And then please address this:
2015-16
In St. Louis, we trailed most of the game to a much better team but forced an OT point, ROR scored the tying goal and was our best player.
At home against LA, ROR assisted on our tying regulation goal in the first and won the game in OT on a stupendous individual effort, falling over as he does it
The next night was one of those classic stinkers against Detroit, until a ridiculous individual effort, throwing dekeyser off his shoulder and driving to the net, tied it with less than 5 to go in the 3rd, leading to a win
A week later, trailing 3-1 in Boston, Ryan kick starts the comeback with 3 3rd period points and the Sabres win
Later in Carolina, a beautiful assist to Kane in the dying minutes of the third to tie the game before the Sabs pull it out on the ensuing momentum swing with grumpy Larry (on a Skinner giveaway)
2016-17
Stealing the show in Jack's first game back, helping us to the desperately needed win to kick-start the push we had to being within 4 points of a playoff spot in February
Connor McDavid comes to the house, gives the Oilers a lead in the final seconds, and ROR creates the game-tying, and then game-winning goal, both happening within 2 minutes of the end of the 3rd and the start of OT
days later, like I mentioned, being down 2-0 to LA and ROR making Kopitar and Doughty his b*tch, kick-starting the comeback that gave us the win
Home against Winnipeg, again right in front of me, tying the game in the first and then creating the game-winning goal in the 3rd after being down 3-1
ANOTHER one of those dreadful Detroit games where we look worse than we should, until ROR ties it late in the third and assists on the OT winner
Immediately followed by another third period tying goal and OT winning goal, both assisted by, you guessed it, this time in Montreal
A goal and an assist in the 3rd period, including on the tying marker late, after being down to SJ 4-1 at home - we won in OT
The game-winning goal to cap off a 3 game win streak against a great Blues team in our last breath of hope
The tying goal for our grittiest win in the season, 2-1 in the shootout at ANA
2017-18
2 points in the 4-1 comeback on the road in Boston, including a ridiculous OT winner
2 points in the 4-1 comeback that fell just short in Vegas, an OTL
An assist on the OT-winner to cap off another 3-1 comeback in NJ
3rd period goal and assist to ice the red-hot lightning in a surprising 5-3 win
4 points including 3 in the third in that awesome comeback in Nashville, to beat them 7-4 on the road
Assisting and creating the game-tying goal in the 3rd on the road in Ottawa to get a win
 

This is directly addressed at the "ROR's attitude being gone lets the team believe they can win" sentiment. You must explain to me why this amount of the same type of thing happened, battling back from behind with ROR, why he drove all of these happenings, and why we should have expected more from a team with the talent level these teams had, how much more we should have expected, but just didn't get, and tie the reason we didn't get that amount to ROR being a downer. And how many we thus should expect this year, and why the two comeback wins they have so far (whopping two eh) couldn't have happened and were driven, not by things that happen on the ice when we can roll lines without getting caved now, but by the better attitude that couldn't have existed with ROR's presence in the locker room, even after clearing out Lehner. 

F*ck stats. That's not what I'm doing here. I'm trying to see why that can be a real mechanism for the things we see on the ice, and I won't believe it if the talk remains as vague as it's been at its most fleshed-out points. It doesn't actually make sense if you put reading glasses on. 

 

[SwampD]

Randall, can't they both be true? Why is it so important to you that it only be the stats that matter?

[Doohickie]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'm going to try this again without being obnoxious. 

What an obnoxiously long post.  ?

[SwampD]

It is actually human beings playing the game, after all.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Um. yeah.

 

What I'm referencing here is interviews I recall where Botts was more than happy to jump on the life-raft provided in end-of-season/offseason interviews by willing media members, about the locker room being so sorry, which wonderfully deflected from the utter trash of a hockey team he put together.

I understand that things were not good from a human perspective, overwhelmingly because of Lehner. But aside from Robin, this team would not have had any locker room issues that weren't typical of other gatherings of humans all across the world, had the team been good. ROR didn't bitch about his play after wins. I know there's more to it than that, but nothing tangible about ROR has ever been reported outside of references to these, so those are what I'm going to use. 

I think jason handled this whole entire thing poorly and won't excuse him for it, even though I separately like what he has done elsewhere.

2 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Randall, can't they both be true? Why is it so important to you that it only be the stats that matter?

If you read all of that and came away with this...with the context of the thoughts I just conveyed I fundamentally don't understand what you're asking me. 

Edited October 26, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

Asking for the human mechanism for what differentiates comebacks this year from comebacks driven by ROR in previous years, as has been asserted happens in this thread, is not sticking to stats.

Asking for discrepancies that are being plucked out where adding in all of the information we have completely wipes them out, is not burying my nose in spreadsheets and being cold and callous and ignorant of the fact that all humans have problems.  

[Jsixspd]

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

@BJWilsonWGR
The #Sabres will go for their fourth straight win tomorrow night in Columbus. The last time they won four straight was back on December 15, 2014. They beat Ottawa in a shootout that night, then went on to lose 19 of their next 20 games, including 14 straight losses in regulation.

???

Oh no - I hope we lose then.  It's a jinx!  lmao!!!!

[Doohickie]

Here's the way I see things Randall:  Whether it was ROR's departure, or Lehner's, or Pouliot's, I don't care.  Thus far anyway, the Sabres are better this year.  And whether it's because ROR left or in spite of it, I really don't care.  I just want to see my team winning.

As for your impassioned posts to try to turn people's hearts away from their pet theories, you realize that's a fool's errand, right?  You're investing a lot of time and effort in obnoxiously ? long posts, but in the end no one is convinced.  Even if you're right, people aren't changing their minds.  And if you're right and they're wrong, why does it matter?  We're just the ephemera of the internet.  For all you know, we're all just bots put here to confound you.  And you let us.  Don't let the naysayers crush your soul.  There will always be people who disagree, and for reasons that are BS.  Just roll with it, man.

Edited October 26, 2018 by Doohickie

[Randall Flagg]

5 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Here's the way I see things Randall:  Whether it was ROR's departure, or Lehner's, or Pouliot's, I don't care.  Thus far anyway, the Sabres are better this year.  And whether it's because ROR left or in spite of it, I really don't care.  I just want to see my team winning.

As for your impassioned posts to try to turn people's hearts away from their pet theories, you realize that's a fool's errand, right?  You're investing a lot of time and effort in obnoxiously ? long posts, but in the end no one is convinced.  Even if you're right, people aren't changing their minds.  And if you're right and they're wrong, why does it matter?  We're just the ephemera of the internet.  For all you know, we're all just bots put here to confound you.  And you let us.  Don't let the naysayers crush your soul.  There will always be people who disagree, and for reasons that are BS.  Just roll with it, man.

People have been talking about this all season, including me, without mentioning ROR - I don't think I've brought him up first since the summer. He's not on my mind 99% of the time.

But it was brought up in that context in this thread, and when I look at this team, that team, "attitude," "comebacks," the picture doesn't support that, as I tried to flesh out. 

I do appreciate your kind words, and the other posters for putting up with me. 

Edited October 26, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Jsixspd]

As far as O'Reilly goes, every indication was he was poison in the locker room.  At the end of the season he even said ""I feel throughout the year I've lost the love of the game multiple times and just need to get back to it because it's eating myself up and eats the other guys up too." and that he was "being OK with losing."   

Those are NOT the words of LEADER - whether sports, or business, or in personal life.  You need to ELEVATE those around you to excel, especially a group of young guys looking to vets like O'Reilly for some leadership.   This sort of Eeyore imitation of his is totally unacceptable -  he could have the greatest personal stats on earth, but if he demoralizes his line and his team, then he's no good.  

It's called being a locker room cancer - and one can't quantify the effect, but it's a huge negative nonetheless.   

[Mustache of God]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

This is surface analysis though, and it does nothing for me. 

There must be something wrong with McDavid because Edmonton is so bad, right? 

Hockey is always a team game, until some narrative pops out, and then everyone loses the plot. 

You're aware that if you go to anything that gets measured ont he ice, and click to the bottom of the 700 NHL players in the league, you see about six players that got regular minutes for this team last year, right? 

Bad players playing a lot of minutes does so much more than one player, who was actually liked given all available evidence (like things Jack says off-the-cuff in chill interviews during the summer) having a "vortex of sadness" that's a mild version of the one that almost killed their goalie who 

a.) played a position of much more importance
b.) was SO MUCH WORSE at that job than ROR was at his

And like I said, something tells me ROR's post-game interviews aren't overpowering his over-point-per-game scoring from their center spot, the highest they've had from a center in years, when you look at the worst starting goalie in the league behind him.

Like, if we have this same discussion, but switch ROR with Chad Johnson, we're actually getting somewhere that represents reality. 

 IF (never would happen) but if Edmonton put McDavid on the market, the return would be insane for him (players, picks, prospects) think the O'Reilly trade but on steroids. I imagine a blockbuster trade with him would have 3 or more teams involved, pretty much the biggest trade in the history of the NHL?

I'd argue that Edmonton would be a stronger team with the return from McDavid, having better talent up & down their line-up making the team more competitive. Right now Edmonton is the McDavid show and that's why they still suck, because hockey is a team game and one player can't do it all.

Yeah, O'Reilly is lighting it up in St. Louis, the few periods I've watched of them he's been noticeable, but that team is in the basement right now (and i hope it stays there). Moving him was a focus of JB this summer and he has an actual pulse on the locker room opposed to the hearsay that runs rampant here. There was a reason he was moved and that's what makes me believe in addition by subtraction. In my eyes, right now the trade is a wash and the balance hangs on what happens with that first round pick. Time shall tell.

There were also concerns of Sobokta at 2C  that are valid and unfortunately that's waiting game for when Mittlesatd is ready, which will take a year or so.

[Doohickie]

5 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I do appreciate your kind words, and the other posters for putting up with me. 

I'm not putting up with you.  I've just got Points for Abusive Behavior for the way I reacted to you earlier and decided I don't want to be "that guy" anymore.  ?