Buffalo Bills 2017-18

[WildCard]

bills.jpg espn.jpg

Beautiful

[Eleven]

I HATE PRETENDING TO GO FOR IT HOPING TO DRAW A PENALTY WITH A FIERY PASSION  :censored:  :censored:  :censored:

 

That was running down the clock, not trying to get a penalty.  It was 4th and goal.  A penalty would not have resulted in a first down.  It gave the kicker room and was the smart call.

 

Taking the 3 points is absolutely the right call.

 

In that situation? No question, and I'm the king of "go for it!"

I think it was the wrong decision. You've had 0 negative runs and you need 1 yard. Games close and a td puts it away. Weak call by a conservative coordinator. I'm glad we still won.

 

And a FG puts it in only tying distance with lots and lots of time on the clock to respond.  It's not like there were 20 seconds left.  It was the right call by a mile.

 

Oh, and three more words:

 

BEND DON'T BREAK!

Edited October 1, 2017 by Eleven

[JujuFish]

Ok. I don’t agree, but that is much better than “you’re wrong.”

 

Here are some relevant questions:

 

- what has the Bills’ short yardage red zone performance been this season? And what has it been on the road? And what about with the O-line that was in on that play?

 

- what about the Falcons’ performance at home on D in that situation?

 

I don’t know the answers to those questions, but I do know that the best coach the Bills have ever had would absolutely have taken the FG, and that he put together a ton of wins that way.

 

 

So your argument that it was the correct decision is based on answers you don't know?

 

Pro-Football-Reference's game finder only goes back to 94, but of the games that Levy coached, from 4th and 1, he went for it every single time, resulting in 4 TDs and one turnover on downs.

And here's the absurdly long link for reference: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=all&year_min=1994&year_max=1997&team_id=buf&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=4&goal_to_go[]=goal_to_go&yg_gtlt=gt&field_pos_min_field=opp&field_pos_min=1&field_pos_max_field=opp&field_pos_max=1&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=PASS&type[]=RUSH&type[]=PUNT&type[]=FG&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=game_date

[Taro T]

Ok. I don’t agree, but that is much better than “you’re wrong.”

Here are some relevant questions:

- what has the Bills’ short yardage red zone performance been this season? And what has it been on the road? And what about with the O-line that was in on that play?

- what about the Falcons’ performance at home on D in that situation?

I don’t know the answers to those questions, but I do know that the best coach the Bills have ever had would absolutely have taken the FG, and that he put together a ton of wins that way.

Saban might have gone for it. Hard to say he'd've definitively would've taken the FG there.

[Eleven]

So your argument that it was the correct decision is based on answers you don't know?

 

Pro-Football-Reference's game finder only goes back to 94, but of the games that Levy coached, from 4th and 1, he went for it every single time, resulting in 4 TDs and one turnover on downs.

And here's the absurdly long link for reference: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=all&year_min=1994&year_max=1997&team_id=buf&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=4&goal_to_go[]=goal_to_go&yg_gtlt=gt&field_pos_min_field=opp&field_pos_min=1&field_pos_max_field=opp&field_pos_max=1&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=PASS&type[]=RUSH&type[]=PUNT&type[]=FG&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=game_date

 

 

Saban might have gone for it. Hard to say he'd've definitively would've taken the FG there.

 

On fourth and goal from the one.  With a lot of time left, up by exactly four?  I'd like to see PFR's stats on that.  Levy would have given that to Norwood/Christie every time, as would any coach with a brain in his head.  From the thirty or forty yard line?  Or with a different score line? Different story.

[JujuFish]

On fourth and goal from the one.  With a lot of time left, up by exactly four?  I'd like to see PFR's stats on that.  Levy would have given that to Norwood/Christie every time, as would any coach with a brain in his head.  From the thirty or forty yard line?  Or with a different score line? Different story.

 

That's 4th and goal from the 1.  3 of the 5 instances were before the 4th quarter, so plenty of time left.  One of those instances, a FG would have made it a 2 score game but he went for it anyway.

 

There's a reason that 4th and goal from the 1 has an EPA of 3.55.  It's the smart play.

Actually, 2 of those instances were situations where a FG would make it a 2 score game.

[Eleven]

That's 4th and goal from the 1.  3 of the 5 instances were before the 4th quarter, so plenty of time left.  One of those instances, a FG would have made it a 2 score game but he went for it anyway.

 

There's a reason that 4th and goal from the 1 has an EPA of 3.55.  It's the smart play.

Actually, 2 of those instances were situations where a FG would make it a 2 score game.

 

Juju, one of the reasons I quit TBD is because I was sick of people defying the stats and defending punts from the 45 on fourth and 2.  I get it.  There is NFW that was the wrong call today.  The Bills had just run nearly an entire quarter off of the clock, and made it so Atlanta couldn't realistically take a lead.  

 

I think we're just going to disagree here.

[TrueBlueGED]

Juju, one of the reasons I quit TBD is because I was sick of people defying the stats and defending punts from the 45 on fourth and 2.  I get it.  There is NFW that was the wrong call today.  The Bills had just run nearly an entire quarter off of the clock, and made it so Atlanta couldn't realistically take a lead.  

 

I think we're just going to disagree here.

 

Um. Did we watch the same end to the game?

[JujuFish]

Juju, one of the reasons I quit TBD is because I was sick of people defying the stats and defending punts from the 45 on fourth and 2.  I get it.  There is NFW that was the wrong call today.  The Bills had just run nearly an entire quarter off of the clock, and made it so Atlanta couldn't realistically take a lead.  

 

I think we're just going to disagree here.

 

What about punts from the 38? Because we had one of those today, too.

 

But yes, we can agree to disagree.  To me, the Bills left 7 points on the field today by punting from the 38 (-3) and not going for it on 4th and 1 (-4).  Change that and Atlanta is put away before their final drive even happens.

[Eleven]

Um. Did we watch the same end to the game?

 

AT THE TIME.

What about punts from the 38? Because we had one of those today, too.

 

But yes, we can agree to disagree.  To me, the Bills left 7 points on the field today by punting from the 38 (-3) and not going for it on 4th and 1 (-4).  Change that and Atlanta is put away before their final drive even happens.

 

I had to MC a charity event for a lot of the game, so I didn't see every play, but if that was from the Atlanta 38, I am absolutely not in favor of it unless the line of gain was more than 10 yards away.

Edited October 1, 2017 by Eleven

[tom webster]

Serious questions for you analytic types.

1) if analytics is based on percentages, and if the odds of converting 4th and 1 is less then 50% and less then 50% of drives result in touchdowns then how is it the wrong call to go for points to put you up more then 3?

2) if you believe that teams have used wrong strategy for years, how you can you cite historical references from further back then 5 years ago?

3) finally, do you not understand that some percentages cited, such as Marv Levy's success rate on 4th down, are skewed by the fact that he rarely did it?

[nfreeman]

So your argument that it was the correct decision is based on answers you don't know?

 

Pro-Football-Reference's game finder only goes back to 94, but of the games that Levy coached, from 4th and 1, he went for it every single time, resulting in 4 TDs and one turnover on downs.

And here's the absurdly long link for reference: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=all&year_min=1994&year_max=1997&team_id=buf&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=4&goal_to_go[]=goal_to_go&yg_gtlt=gt&field_pos_min_field=opp&field_pos_min=1&field_pos_max_field=opp&field_pos_max=1&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=PASS&type[]=RUSH&type[]=PUNT&type[]=FG&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=game_date

 

My point was that if we're going to have a real analytical discussion about that decision, there are quite a few nuanced variables to consider.  I think the fact that it put them up by 7 with 12 minutes to go, on the road against a really good team, in a situation where getting zero points would've been a huge stomach punch, is compelling.  I also think the fact that they won, and that FG was very important in the endgame, is pretty compelling.

 

Your initial response was "you're wrong" -- which added nothing to the conversation and in fact detracted from it.  Your second point, about them having success on that drive, was better, but hardly dispositive -- so I responded that if we are really going to break it down, there were quite a few relevant stats we could look into.

 

You then delivered an excellent response to my point about Marv, which I commend you for.  Those situations weren't the same as today's situation -- in the only 4th quarter situations, the Bills were down by more than 3 -- but it was still an effective response to my claim that Marv never would've gone for it.

 

Bottom line is that we don't have applicable data to evaluate the decision statistically, and that I think agreeing to disagree is reasonable.

 

 

Saban might have gone for it. Hard to say he'd've definitively would've taken the FG there.

 

I see what you did there.

 

 

That's 4th and goal from the 1.  3 of the 5 instances were before the 4th quarter, so plenty of time left.  One of those instances, a FG would have made it a 2 score game but he went for it anyway.

 

There's a reason that 4th and goal from the 1 has an EPA of 3.55.  It's the smart play.

Actually, 2 of those instances were situations where a FG would make it a 2 score game.

 

I couldn't find it on a quick search of that site, but I think EPA is league-wide -- i.e. not adjusted for team X vs team Y, on the road, etc.

 

 

Um. Did we watch the same end to the game?

 

Well, the FG put the Bills up by 7 with 12 min to go.  Atlanta wasn't going to score a TD and then go for 2.

[JujuFish]

Serious questions for you analytic types.

1) if analytics is based on percentages, and if the odds of converting 4th and 1 is less then 50% and less then 50% of drives result in touchdowns then how is it the wrong call to go for points to put you up more then 3?

2) if you believe that teams have used wrong strategy for years, how you can you cite historical references from further back then 5 years ago?

3) finally, do you not understand that some percentages cited, such as Marv Levy's success rate on 4th down, are skewed by the fact that he rarely did it?

 

I'm not sure if this is aimed solely at me but:

 

1) Going for it on 4th and goal from the 1 will result in more points in the long run. 

2) I've never said this, and I cited historical references because nfreeman was talking about Marv Levy.

3) The discussion was not on Levy's success rate, but rather the fact that, at least in his final years coaching (as I mentioned, the data I was searching only goes to 94), he always went for it on 4th and goal from the 1.

[inkman]

Good win. Not sure if the Bills are a good team yet.

 

 

It would be very Billsian for them to put together their best season in 20 years the year they are supposedly drafting a QB.

[JujuFish]

Your initial response was "you're wrong" -- which added nothing to the conversation and in fact detracted from it.

 

Because your posting over and over that it was the right decision without a single trickle of justification was anything else?  You're definitely right that there is an absurd amount of depth that can be put into the decision which you can't do in a split second on the field.  And in the end, it didn't cost us the game so it does feel like complaining about it is taking away from a damn fine afternoon.

 

Despite my reservations, I am very happy with where the team is sitting right now. 

[drnkirishone]

I think the better thing to look at is the results of teams starting a drive on the 1 yard line. I am guessing a high % end up with 3 and out drives

[tom webster]

I'm not sure if this is aimed solely at me but:

 

1) Going for it on 4th and goal from the 1 will result in more points in the long run.

2) I've never said this, and I cited historical references because nfreeman was talking about Marv Levy.

3) The discussion was not on Levy's success rate, but rather the fact that, at least in his final years coaching (as I mentioned, the data I was searching only goes to 94), he always went for it on 4th and goal from the 1.

Not meant just for you. There seem to be a lot of assumptions regarding success rates that I don't feel are valid and haven't seen any evidence that I trust to validate a lot of opinions I hear every Sunday.

As a probability guy, I see a lot of sketchy math by people who only a few years ago couldn't explain the fifferiance between the median and the average.

There is a lot of great work being done by the analytic community but a lot of garbage as well.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Guys.... The bills bested a very very good falcons team.... On the road..... Let's just enjoy

[dudacek]

Guys.... The bills bested a very very good falcons team.... On the road..... Let's just enjoy

This. Why can't we just celebrate stuff anymore?

[darksabre]

This. Why can't we just celebrate stuff anymore?

Because the wheels will eventually come off and we'll be surpassed by the Patriots yet again. 

 

Eat at Arby's. 

[JujuFish]

We're 3-1 and two of our opponents are also 3-1 with their only loss coming from Buffalo.  In fact, our 4 opponents are now collectively: 3-1, 3-1, 3-1, 2-2.  If I were given that information before the season started, I'd probably think we were 1-3, maybe 2-2.  Good stuff.

[nfreeman]

TT made some very nice throws today.

 

He and Clay have developed a nice connection.

 

The Bills also benefited from 2 pretty questionable and important ref calls.

 

Great win.

[pi2000]

Surprising win.

 

McDermott has these guys believing and playing for each other. That alone will take them a long way.

 

If they don't make the playoffs it won't be for lack of coaching or desire or team. I can live with that. Fun team to cheer for.

[WildCard]

McDermott has created a team, unlike a collection of talent we usually see with the Bills.

 

Also, how freaking good are our safeties? Man, they've been amazing

Because the wheels will eventually come off and we'll be surpassed by the Patriots yet again. 

 

Eat at Arby's. 

15-1 this year baby

[LGR4GM]

Go Bills!!!