Future Sabres: Identifying the core

[dudacek]

It's fascinating how it's always a moving target when it comes to what people thought before the season and what they'll own up to during and after. I'll move past that and say — if the Sabres finish 30th again, if I were Terry I'd fire both Murray and Bylsma. Improved Corsi Enhanced POS be damned. Too much top end talent was brought in to accept it, not to mention that the moves themselves were meant to put the rebuild on fast forward and get them quickly away from the dregs of the league.

Thank goodness you're not the GM. Because Tim is down to trade your mom, qwk's grandma, and Samson Reinhart and Samson Reinhart's first-born twin boys (future considerations) to make this team better by lunchtime. He'll throw in qwk's cat as well.

 

I don't have the time to prove the letter of what I'm saying. But the spirit of it is that as a board there was a lot of optimism that the team would be significantly better than last year, perhaps a team on the playoff bubble or even a playoff team. Taro's prediction of 90-ish points comes to mind. I don't recall he got any WTFs for that. I don't know how we could go from that to, "Yeah, they finished 30th, what did you expect? It's going to take time." It's OK to admit the record is disappointing, to be virtually out of the playoffs by Christmas again, to be only three points ahead of last year's pace. Murray's not happy, unless the point of this season was to have a good shot at the number one pick.

I got a very different perception of Tim Murray than you from his trades.

Being decisive isn't the same as a plan that consists of constantly flipping parts until something works.

 

Yes, he will trade good players at the drop of a hat, but that is to get the players he wants. I don't think he's going to be so quick to trade off the players he wanted. I also think he expects this team to be significantly better this year, but I doubt he is defining that by what place it finishes in the standings.

 

I think his expectation for this season mirrors that of this board: improvement. I don't think the board expected playoffs, but they saw enough improvement on paper to allow themselves to hope to be in the race. 60 points would be disappointing, 70-80 would meet expectations, 90 would be a welcome surprise.

 

I think Murray sees the big picture and he has a plan. The first part of that plan was completing the tank, the second part was cashing in the pieces acquired by the tank. The next part is developing talent and finding the missing pieces. That part will require more patience than you seem to think he has. If an opportunity is there, I have no doubt he will pounce, but he has more pieces that he likes now, and less pieces (picks, prospects and cap space) that are easy to cash.

 

I get this from what Murray has said and done. So far, his word and actions have matched up pretty well.

 

What I will be watching closely is how flexible he is within the plan: when a Bogo, or an Eichel aren't meeting expectations, what comes next? Will he trade his guys?

Edited December 9, 2015 by dudacek

[woods-racer]

 

I get this from what Murray has said and done. So far, his word and actions have matched up pretty well.

 

What I will be watching closely is how flexible he is within the plan: when a Bogo, or an Eichel aren't meeting expectations, what comes next? Will he trade his guys?

 

If he doesn't let go of his guys that are under performing wouldn't that be a trait of Darcy Reiger we all had the greatest issue with?

 

But that brings up the question of time. How long do you keep an under performing player thinking they are going to blossom but just haven't yet? Don't want to pull a Boston.

[dudacek]

If he doesn't let go of his guys that are under performing wouldn't that be a trait of Darcy Reiger we all had the greatest issue with?

 

But that brings up the question of time. How long do you keep an under performing player thinking they are going to blossom but just haven't yet? Don't want to pull a Boston.

 

Absolutely. Patience (and his inability to craft a team) ended up being Darcy's downfall.

We're in the early stages of Murray.

Looks like he understands about crafting a team. And I doubt patience will be his issue.

Might lack of patience? We'll see.

[That Aud Smell]

Will he trade his guys?

 

Excellent question. This will be something to watch. As W-R noted, that was a big issue with Darcy.

 

Don't want to pull a Boston.

 

Seguin, right?

[woods-racer]

Excellent question. This will be something to watch. As W-R noted, that was a big issue with Darcy.

 

 

Seguin, right?

 

Yes.

 

The balance of patience and cutting losses. 

[LTS]

I don't have the time to prove the letter of what I'm saying. But the spirit of it is that as a board there was a lot of optimism that the team would be significantly better than last year, perhaps a team on the playoff bubble or even a playoff team. Taro's prediction of 90-ish points comes to mind. I don't recall he got any WTFs for that. I don't know how we could go from that to, "Yeah, they finished 30th, what did you expect? It's going to take time." It's OK to admit the record is disappointing, to be virtually out of the playoffs by Christmas again, to be only three points ahead of last year's pace. Murray's not happy, unless the point of this season was to have a good shot at the number one pick.

 

I think the goal this year was to get a shot at a lottery pick and nothing more.  It doesn't matter where in the race of "out of the playoffs" they finish.  They are playing improved hockey.  The problem now is that the Sabres don't have depth. So Ennis and Pysyk are out and that puts more responsibility in the hands of the lesser talent.  The good news is that now when there is an injury they are generally subbing in some AHL talent for NHL talent rather than ECHL talent for AHL talent.  In addition, the Sabres can't play and offensive and defensive game simultaneously yet.  They can play either/or.  When they try to open up the offense they end up too exposed on the back end, especially against other teams. If they want to shut down other teams they won't get enough offense.  I still think they have the ability, just not the experience.

 

Next year is the year.. this year is to establish the style of play, the chemistry and to determine who gets voted off the island. 

[TrueBlueGED]

Although I've had to play serious catch up in this thread (so I apologize if I'm repeating things unnecessarily), I love the notion of trying to identify the real members of the core. I'm a fan of the concept of an inner and an outer core, where the inner core is the group that you keep around no matter what, and the outer core, although important, is more of a medium term group that you know you'll eventually have to part with for one reason or another. The inner core is probably around 4-6 players, with the outer core an additional ~4 or so (and this is probably where most goaltenders belong). If you get to more than 10 players, I think the definition of core that you're using is too broad.

 

If we look at Chicago as the model, I'd say their inner core is: Kane, Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Hossa. You might be able to argue Hjalmarsson is in there too and I wouldn't fight it too much, but I'm a little iffy on whether a 2nd pair Dman is truly a core piece. Outer core I'd view something like Hjalmarsson (again if you want him in the core, not gonna argue much), Oduya, Sharp, Saad, Crawford. These pieces were around for multiple Cup runs, but three of them were eventually shipped off due to financial constraints, and I wouldn't be shocked if Crawford hits the chopping block before the end of his contract.

 

Trying to draw some parallels here, I think the obvious core we have in place is O'Reilly, Eichel, Reinhart, Ristolainen. While the positional relationship isn't perfect, I think that corresponds pretty well to 4/5 of those core pieces, even if you consider who was drafted vs. acquired. What we're really in need of is another rock solid piece in that inner core, and hopefully another fringe inner core Hjalmarsson-like player. The most obvious contenders are Kane, Ennis, Girgensons, Pysyk, McCabe, and Bogosian. For my money I think Kane will work his way in, and Pysyk will fill that Hjalmarsson role. Then the rest of the outer core will be filled with Ennis, Girgensons and McCabe. 

 

Ultimately I think we need to get one more piece that can clearly be in the inner core or at least is a rock solid member of the outer core. I'd prefer this to be a UFA signing (I'm looking at you, Keith Yandle) so that still have enough prospect depth to hope one or more of them emerges to play a meaningful role on an ELC when we inevitably have to jettison a member or two of the outer core for financial reasons. 

 

Bogosian is a piece I'd be looking to move, to be honest. Between his relatively weak offensive game, inconsistent decision-making, and injuries, I don't think he justifies his contract and I'm unconvinced he ever will. I'm probably being a little too harsh on him due to his struggles since entering the lineup this season, but is $5 million for a #4 really a sound investment? I think we can get the same level of play for less, and hopefully without the injuries.

 

Inner core: O'Reilly, Eichel, Reinhart, Ristolainen, Kane/acquisition, Pysyk/acquisition

Outer core: Ennis, Girgensons, McCabe, Kane/acquisition, Pysyk/acquisition

 

Clearly, much of that is young and needs development time, so I see no need to execute a panic trade. But I think it's fairly evident we need an additional top-6 forward and top-4 defenseman (maybe two, depending on McCabe's development and Bogosian's play), and a goalie from somewhere, even if that somewhere is already in the organization. One of these things could very well be drafted this year, depending on how the season plays out, which would really only leave a couple of holes to fill. The future is still bright.

[WildCard]

Surprised that outer core doesn't have Ullmark in it, TB

[Doohickie]

Surprised that outer core doesn't have Ullmark in it, TB

 

I can't speak for TB, but I think it's still early to declare Ullmark as The One, even though I think he very well may be.  Could be Kasdorf for that matter, or Markarov, or....?

Edited December 9, 2015 by The Big Johnson

[MattPie]

 

I can't speak for TB, but I think it's still early to declare Ullmark as The One, even though I think he very well may be.  Could be Kasdorf for that matter, or Markarov, or....?

 

Ahem, Lehner. :)

[nfreeman]

Although I've had to play serious catch up in this thread (so I apologize if I'm repeating things unnecessarily), I love the notion of trying to identify the real members of the core. I'm a fan of the concept of an inner and an outer core, where the inner core is the group that you keep around no matter what, and the outer core, although important, is more of a medium term group that you know you'll eventually have to part with for one reason or another. The inner core is probably around 4-6 players, with the outer core an additional ~4 or so (and this is probably where most goaltenders belong). If you get to more than 10 players, I think the definition of core that you're using is too broad.

 

-snip-

 

What we're really in need of is another rock solid piece in that inner core, and hopefully another fringe inner core Hjalmarsson-like player. The most obvious contenders are Kane, Ennis, Girgensons, Pysyk, McCabe, and Bogosian. For my money I think Kane will work his way in, and Pysyk McCabe will fill that Hjalmarsson role. Then the rest of the outer core will be filled with Ennis, Girgensons and McCabe. 

 

Ultimately I think we need to get one more piece that can clearly be in the inner core or at least is a rock solid member of the outer core. I'd prefer this to be a UFA signing (I'm looking at you, Keith Yandle Steven Stamkos) so that still have enough prospect depth to hope one or more of them emerges to play a meaningful role on an ELC when we inevitably have to jettison a member or two of the outer core for financial reasons. 

 

 

-snip-

 

Clearly, much of that is young and needs development time, so I see no need to execute a panic trade. But I think it's fairly evident we need an additional top-6 forward and top-4 defenseman (maybe two, depending on McCabe's development and Bogosian's play), and a goalie from somewhere, even if that somewhere is already in the organization. One of these things could very well be drafted this year, depending on how the season plays out, which would really only leave a couple of holes to fill. The future is still bright.

 

Good post.  I fixed a couple of items.

[TrueBlueGED]

I can't speak for TB, but I think it's still early to declare Ullmark as The One, even though I think he very well may be. Could be Kasdorf for that matter, or Markarov, or....?

On this matter you could speak for me. Just way too soon with any of these goalies to have the slightest clue. Ullmark has shown some things, but also causes for concern. Long term, I have no clue.

Good post. I fixed a couple of items.

I doubt we'll ever see eye to eye on the value of Stamkos as a UFA, but I am curious as to what you've seen out of McCabe to think he'll be better than Pysyk. To my eye, Pysyk is better at passing, decision making under pressure, and has better stick work in the defensive zone.

[nfreeman]

I doubt we'll ever see eye to eye on the value of Stamkos as a UFA, but I am curious as to what you've seen out of McCabe to think he'll be better than Pysyk. To my eye, Pysyk is better at passing, decision making under pressure, and has better stick work in the defensive zone.

 

I think McCabe, in his first NHL stint, has shown substantially more game than Pysyk has despite Pysyk's greater experience.

 

In particular, while I agree that Pysyk has been pretty good at using his quick feet, brains and passing to get out of the defensive zone, he has no offensive game to speak of (and has not shown any at the AHL level either), and isn't physical enough to clear the crease, kill penalties, or instill any intimidation factor into the opposition.  McCabe's defensive IQ is pretty much equivalent to Pysyk's, he's at least as fast as Pysyk (although Pysyk is perhaps a bit quicker), he plays a much tougher game and, most importantly, he has much, much more offensive game than Pysyk does.

 

I'd guess that DDB also prefers McCabe, as he gets about 2 min more ice time per game than Pysyk does.

[Doohickie]

Pysyk is more of a proven quantity at the NHL level for sure. Honestly though I am not sure either one of those guys is part of the core.  I see them both as likely 2nd pairing guys, with Pysyk possibly filling in on the top pair as needed.  But are they any better than Talinder or Lydman?  Would we have ever considered those guys part of the core?

[Claude_Verret]

.  But are they any better than Talinder or Lydman?  Would we have ever considered those guys part of the core?

 

 

2005/06 Tallinder before he broke his arm in game 1 against Carolina? Absolutely.  His whole career trajectory changed after that and he was a shadow of the stud we saw in those playoffs.

[qwksndmonster]

I think that's a fair evaluation of McCabe and Pysyk's tools, but it leaves out that Pysyk has been much more consistent than McCabe.

 

(I don't think this has much influence on their long term development, but it's worth mentioning that McCabe has had some real rookie games as of late.)

[Randall Flagg]

I think Pysyk's absence has played a role in our plummeting possession numbers. I like McCabe a lot too. I think they will make our defense worries of the last year or so seem silly, a few years down the road.

[Norcal]

I don't think we have seen what Kane can actually be yet. He is just entering what is considered his prime years and feeling his way here. Kane also strikes me as a guy who can turn it up in the playoffs as well. When looking for a core group of players I would want guys that work hard every night but also realize that the playoffs are a completely different style of play than the regular season so they will have to have another level of play to strive for. Everything is contested in the playoffs so snarl, attitude, toughness and skill are personified. That being said I see the core 4-6 being Eichel, Reinhart, O'Reilly, Girgensons, Kane and Ristolainen with a possible 7th being a 1st pair LD (draft, free agency?)and the outer core consisting of Pysyk, McCabe, McGinn and someone from Rochester, maybe a couple of em. Bailey/Carrier/Baptiste? If Murray could add a top 6 forward or two and a top pairing defensemen I believe the team could start making noise. Gorges, Legwand and Gionta are good guys to have around while the youngsters adjust and develop but they will be long gone before they reach the second or third round.

[Thorny]

I think McCabe, in his first NHL stint, has shown substantially more game than Pysyk has despite Pysyk's greater experience.

 

In particular, while I agree that Pysyk has been pretty good at using his quick feet, brains and passing to get out of the defensive zone, he has no offensive game to speak of (and has not shown any at the AHL level either), and isn't physical enough to clear the crease, kill penalties, or instill any intimidation factor into the opposition.  McCabe's defensive IQ is pretty much equivalent to Pysyk's, he's at least as fast as Pysyk (although Pysyk is perhaps a bit quicker), he plays a much tougher game and, most importantly, he has much, much more offensive game than Pysyk does.

 

I'd guess that DDB also prefers McCabe, as he gets about 2 min more ice time per game than Pysyk does.

 

I would argue that Pysyk's defensive IQ and decision making is miles ahead of McCabe's right now. McCabe has several defensive gaffes a game where I'm utterly flabbergasted as to what he was even thinking. Just last game he had a brutal giveaway where he cut in front and gave it right to the attacking forward. A number of times he has seemed to be directly responsible for goals against. Pysyk doesn't make errors like that very often at all.

 

Now, McCabe is young and still developing, and I think he is going to become a really good defenseman for us. I think both him and Pysyk have the potential to be a part of our future core. In fact, I see our future top 4 hopefully becoming:

 

xxx - Ristolainen

McCabe - Pysyk

 

I think with McCabe offering more of an offensive presence, Pysyk being a more steady D-man would result in their games complementing eachother's very well.

[Norcal]

What about guys like Fasching, Guhle? Do they even get a sniff at the Sabres lineup in a couple years or are they traded for a more ready prospect?

[woods-racer]

What about guys like Fasching, Guhle? Do they even get a sniff at the Sabres lineup in a couple years or are they traded for a more ready prospect?

 

Yes.

 

If nothing comes along they will be sniffing the NHL, probably more than sniffing on Guhle's part, he looked good before getting Mack trucked in preseason.

 

If someone has an offer that meets GMTM's goals, they're gone and we get a ready player.

 

A bird in hand is worth two in Juniors.

Edited December 9, 2015 by Woods-Racer

[LGR4GM]

Surprised that outer core doesn't have Ullmark in it, TB

with how GT is trending, I think it is becoming easier to find guys to plug in.

 

Pysyk is more of a proven quantity at the NHL level for sure. Honestly though I am not sure either one of those guys is part of the core.  I see them both as likely 2nd pairing guys, with Pysyk possibly filling in on the top pair as needed.  But are they any better than Talinder or Lydman?  Would we have ever considered those guys part of the core?

I would hazard a guess that Pysyk or Bogosian will be moved probably in a package for an up and coming LHD.

 

I'm not a yandle fan. He will be 30 when next season starts which means according to statistics his numbers should start to decline.

 

What about guys like Fasching, Guhle? Do they even get a sniff at the Sabres lineup in a couple years or are they traded for a more ready prospect?

I'd be surprised if within the next 2 years Ghule or Fasching are in the Sabres lineup. Fasching needs at least a year in the AHL and Ghule needs 1-2 years in the AHL which he can't get to for another year after this one. 

 

For reasons like this I think we are a year or two away from doing anything in the playoffs. You need good young players in the AHL who can fill in for those playoff injuries or save you money on rookie deals.

[Hoss]

Kris Baker, the authority on Sabres prospects, believes Fasching will be in the NHL next season. Thinks he may only need a small stint in the AHL, but other than that he is pro ready. I feel the same.

Guhle is a ways away, though.

Edited December 10, 2015 by Hoss

[woods-racer]

Kris Baker, the authority on Sabres prospects, believes Fasching will be in the NHL next season. Thinks he may only need a small stint in the AHL, but other than that he is pro ready. I feel the same.

Guhle is a ways away, though.

 

I would've bet a hundred to 1 that it would have been the other way around.

 

Guhle is more the prototypical in route NHL defensemen? Juniors, then 2-3 years in AHL, getting a regular spot in the NHL around 23-24 years old? So where are looking at 3-4 years from now?

[pi2000]

The way things are going, you have to include Auston Mathews in the core group.