Future Sabres: Identifying the core

[That Aud Smell]

I hope GMTM has more Kane (edit: and ROR!) trades up his sleeve.

 

With what assets, though?

[Hoss]

With what assets, though?

I'd say we've still got the assets to pull off one more trade of that caliber, but if we made the move we'd be absolutely dried up of prospects and wouldn't be able to afford dealing off more picks. For the right player(s) I'd be willing to make the move but I don't see a way to go yet.

I'd also like to get to this year's free agency to see who is legitimately available (Stamkos and Yandle being two names to watch).

[PASabreFan]

With what assets, though?

Is the cupboard bare? No more top prospects in Rochester, no picks, no good young players? Does Girgensons fit in here? Does Ennis? Are there any untouchables on the roster?

[nfreeman]

I will reiterate that I am A-OK with them giving Stamkos a big fat UFA contract.  He's still only 25!

[Hoss]

Is the cupboard bare? No more top prospects in Rochester, no picks, no good young players? Does Girgensons fit in here? Does Ennis? Are there any untouchables on the roster?

I think we've got a few untouchables.

Eichel, O'Reilly, Risto, Reinhart with Reinhart being untouchable unless a young superstar shakes loose which doesn't happen.

You're probably not trading Kane. Beyond that I think everybody is available.

 

Girgensons and Ennis are two guys that could be a big part of a multi-asset deal. The best prospects are Fasching, Baptiste, Bailey and Guhle. Teams might see something in Brycen Martin, Florentino, Hurley or Olofsson.

I really like Martin, Olofsson and Fasching. Beyond that I'm not committed to making sure any of them stick around. You could consider Pysyk or McCabe, but I think that's taking far too much of a risk on defense unless you're getting a better dman back.

 

So the pieces are there. But then you're really sticking with what you've got minus a few tweaks and free agent pursuits.

I will reiterate that I am A-OK with them giving Stamkos a big fat UFA contract.  He's still only 25!

This team is a playoff team next season if you keep them together and add Stamkos...

If we want to get a little crazy we could probably manage to add Stamkos AND Yandle. It'd likely mean we're sacrificing somewhere down the road, but it'd immediately make this team ready to compete.

 

But is there a risk of young players being "forced" to immediately play top minutes on a contender? I don't know. That'd be an interesting discussion.

[That Aud Smell]

Is the cupboard bare? No more top prospects in Rochester, no picks, no good young players? Does Girgensons fit in here? Does Ennis? Are there any untouchables on the roster?

 

Good ideas, there. Not saying they should move, but they could be assets if a deal were there to be made.

But is there a risk of young players being "forced" to immediately play top minutes on a contender? I don't know. That'd be an interesting discussion.

 

Good point. I think GM TM has a timeline in mind.

[PASabreFan]

Good ideas, there. Not saying they should move, but they could be assets if a deal were there to be made.

 

Good point. I think GM TM has a timeline in mind.

And I don't think it's five to seven years. I don't think he's patient and I don't think Terry is either. We've been warned not to fall in love with young players, prospects and picks. I'm pretty sure Zadorov was an untouchable on this board, and maybe Grigorenko at some point. Trading Armia or a first round pick... unthinkable. A lot of us are still in small-market, homegrown, build for the future mode. I don't think that's how Murray rolls.

 

The other issue is reality. At the halfway mark, if this team is at or near the bottom of the league, is that all Murray needs to see to know that this thing is not projecting out toward contender status without more major moves? I'd say so. They will be fine, yes, yes, I know, but hardly anyone predicted this team would be anywhere near 30th place again.

[woods-racer]

And I don't think it's five to seven years. I don't think he's patient and I don't think Terry is either. We've been warned not to fall in love with young players, prospects and picks. I'm pretty sure Zadorov was an untouchable on this board, and maybe Grigorenko at some point. Trading Armia or a first round pick... unthinkable. A lot of us are still in small-market, homegrown, build for the future mode. I don't think that's how Murray rolls.

 

The other issue is reality. At the halfway mark, if this team is at or near the bottom of the league, is that all Murray needs to see to know that this thing is not projecting out toward contender status without more major moves? I'd say so. They will be fine, yes, yes, I know, but hardly anyone predicted this team would be anywhere near 30th place again.

 

 

Not 30th for sure. But you can throw a hat on team points that separate 19-25th place teams. I expect there, and still do. 

[Hoss]

And I don't think it's five to seven years. I don't think he's patient and I don't think Terry is either. We've been warned not to fall in love with young players, prospects and picks. I'm pretty sure Zadorov was an untouchable on this board, and maybe Grigorenko at some point. Trading Armia or a first round pick... unthinkable. A lot of us are still in small-market, homegrown, build for the future mode. I don't think that's how Murray rolls.

 

The other issue is reality. At the halfway mark, if this team is at or near the bottom of the league, is that all Murray needs to see to know that this thing is not projecting out toward contender status without more major moves? I'd say so. They will be fine, yes, yes, I know, but hardly anyone predicted this team would be anywhere near 30th place again.

Actually just about everybody predicted this team would be at or near 30th again. Everybody but this board from what I saw, read an heard. Even so they're on track for a major improvement over last year. I don't think this year is enough to tell you whether or not the key pieces to this team are able to be key pieces to a contender, but I think it's already clear what positions need to be addressed.

[That Aud Smell]

but hardly anyone predicted this team would be anywhere near 30th place again.

 

For my own part, I'd hoped they be in that 22-25 range. 

But there were plenty of pundits saying that the Sabres would be at or near the bottom of the league again.

[dudacek]

We're a third of the way through the first post-tank season.

This team has made a significant jump from trash to mediocre-but-competitive.

It will be a playoff team next year without any significant moves, simply because Sam and Jack will start to emerge as front-line guys instead of support pieces. The correct pieces for that are already here.

What comes next is identifying the pieces needed to put us over the top and I say it is a little premature to make that call.

[Hoss]

We're a third of the way through the first post-tank season.

This team has made a significant jump from trash to mediocre-but-competitive.

It will be a playoff team next year without any significant moves, simply because Sam and Jack will start to emerge as front-line guys instead of support pieces. The correct pieces for that are already here.

What comes next is identifying the pieces needed to put us over the top and I say it is a little premature to make that call.

I'm not ready to say that they're a playoff team next year but I agree with what you're saying for the most part. I don't want a deal now or tomorrow. But this offseason will likely be a good time to make the move or at least try to.

[PASabreFan]

For my own part, I'd hoped they be in that 22-25 range. 

But there were plenty of pundits saying that the Sabres would be at or near the bottom of the league again.

It's fascinating how it's always a moving target when it comes to what people thought before the season and what they'll own up to during and after. I'll move past that and say — if the Sabres finish 30th again, if I were Terry I'd fire both Murray and Bylsma. Improved Corsi Enhanced POS be damned. Too much top end talent was brought in to accept it, not to mention that the moves themselves were meant to put the rebuild on fast forward and get them quickly away from the dregs of the league.

I'm not ready to say that they're a playoff team next year but I agree with what you're saying for the most part. I don't want a deal now or tomorrow. But this offseason will likely be a good time to make the move or at least try to.

Thank goodness you're not the GM. Because Tim is down to trade your mom, qwk's grandma, and Samson Reinhart and Samson Reinhart's first-born twin boys (future considerations) to make this team better by lunchtime. He'll throw in qwk's cat as well.

[That Aud Smell]

It's fascinating how it's always a moving target when it comes to what people thought before the season and what they'll own up to during and after. 

 

Examples?

[PASabreFan]

Examples?

I don't have the time to prove the letter of what I'm saying. But the spirit of it is that as a board there was a lot of optimism that the team would be significantly better than last year, perhaps a team on the playoff bubble or even a playoff team. Taro's prediction of 90-ish points comes to mind. I don't recall he got any WTFs for that. I don't know how we could go from that to, "Yeah, they finished 30th, what did you expect? It's going to take time." It's OK to admit the record is disappointing, to be virtually out of the playoffs by Christmas again, to be only three points ahead of last year's pace. Murray's not happy, unless the point of this season was to have a good shot at the number one pick.

[Hoss]

Thank goodness you're not the GM. Because Tim is down to trade your mom, qwk's grandma, and Samson Reinhart and Samson Reinhart's first-born twin boys (future considerations) to make this team better by lunchtime. He'll throw in qwk's cat as well.

If he does that it's fine. I'm just saying, for my part, when I talk about wanting trades I'm not saying it has to be immediate. I'll trust mostly anything GMTM does right now. Have no reason not to.

 

On expectations and results: there were a lot of people here who said they might be a playoff team or near it (I predicted playoffs in the prediction thread but openly said I didn't believe it was realistic). But if they end up over 70 points it's a huge improvement.

[WildCard]

I'm not ready to say that they're a playoff team next year but I agree with what you're saying for the most part. I don't want a deal now or tomorrow. But this offseason will likely be a good time to make the move or at least try to.

I'm shocked you belive not making the playoffs next year is expected, especially given the detailed mapping submitted on the comparisons to Chicago and Pittsburgh

[That Aud Smell]

I don't have the time to prove the letter of what I'm saying. But the spirit of it is that as a board there was a lot of optimism that the team would be significantly better than last year, perhaps a team on the playoff bubble or even a playoff team. Taro's prediction of 90-ish points comes to mind. I don't recall he got any WTFs for that. I don't know how we could go from that to, "Yeah, they finished 30th, what did you expect? It's going to take time." It's OK to admit the record is disappointing, to be virtually out of the playoffs by Christmas again, to be only three points ahead of last year's pace. Murray's not happy, unless the point of this season was to have a good shot at the number one pick.

 

All of that is fair. 

 

I don't think it's fair to say that a last place finish should mean the firing of GM TM and Hot Daniel. This process needs to be seen through. It may end in spectacular failure, but it needs to be played out. Otherwise, what's been done will have been wasted. Of course, the seeds sown may not bear fruit, but we can't and won't know whether they will unless we give this some time.

[PASabreFan]

All of that is fair. 

 

I don't think it's fair to say that a last place finish should mean the firing of GM TM and Hot Daniel. This process needs to be seen through. It may end in spectacular failure, but it needs to be played out. Otherwise, what's been done will have been wasted. Of course, the seeds sown may not bear fruit, but we can't and won't know whether they will unless we give this some time.

That's also fair. I just don't know how many times Tim is going to watch the opposition slice through the front of the Sabres' net like the proverbial hot knife through butter without realizing, "Welp, that's not gonna fix itself."

[That Aud Smell]

That's also fair. I just don't know how many times Tim is going to watch the opposition slice through the front of the Sabres' net like the proverbial hot knife through butter without realizing, "Welp, that's not gonna fix itself."

 

The more I see that happen, the more I wonder whether the solution Hot Daniel has in mind is the one you or I would suspect.

[3putt]

It's fascinating how it's always a moving target when it comes to what people thought before the season and what they'll own up to during and after. I'll move past that and say — if the Sabres finish 30th again, if I were Terry I'd fire both Murray and Bylsma. Improved Corsi Enhanced POS be damned. Too much top end talent was brought in to accept it, not to mention that the moves themselves were meant to put the rebuild on fast forward and get them quickly away from the dregs of the league.

Thank goodness you're not the GM. Because Tim is down to trade your mom, qwk's grandma, and Samson Reinhart and Samson Reinhart's first-born twin boys (future considerations) to make this team better by lunchtime. He'll throw in qwk's cat as well.

I don't think this is accurate.  He has said that you build through the draft.  Trades are next and then you add a FA to get you over the top.  I think he will focus on the draft this year, maybe another draft day deal and possibly a higher quality FA in the offseason.  But there are a lot of holes to be filled from goaltending to LHD to RW and speedier depth players.  That can't be fixed in one fell swoop. 

[PASabreFan]

The more I see that happen, the more I wonder whether the solution Hot Daniel has in mind is the one you or I would suspect.

Well, that's cryptic.

I don't think this is accurate.  He has said that you build through the draft.  Trades are next and then you add a FA to get you over the top.  I think he will focus on the draft this year, maybe another draft day deal and possibly a higher quality FA in the offseason.  But there are a lot of holes to be filled from goaltending to LHD to RW and speedier depth players.  That can't be fixed in one fell swoop. 

That pushes the timeline way out into the future, innit? (I never know if I'm getting the innit right, I just go with it.)

[3putt]

Well, that's cryptic.

That pushes the timeline way out into the future, innit? (I never know if I'm getting the innit right, I just go with it.)

Not from my pov.  This was the year to see if Eichel and Reinhart belong,  They do and show signs that they will improve.  Risto was a question mark from the perspective a taking a step forward or a step back at his relatively young age, and he answered the bell.  The ROR deal solidified a tougher to play against team along with McGinn.  Kane was coming back after missing half a season and I thought it would take him until now to get the rust off.  Bogosian was unforatunate as was Kane and Lehner.  But all those moves still left us with Gionta, Weber, Gorges (coming off serious surgery), Moulson as principle pieces.  They are not part of a legit contender in my book so this year was about playing a better system and allowing the young guys to improve.  too many changes to expect that all would click immediately.  I similar draft and offseason this year will have less change and likely a playoff push if not getting in.  I think the timeline started for me when TM was hired so we are just shy of two years. One more is about right in my eyes.

[That Aud Smell]

Well, that's cryptic.

 

All I meant: We might see that going on and clamour for the signing of one of Butcher Boy, Bloodbottler, Fleshlumpeater, or Bonecruncher (sorry - long car ride and we listened to Dahl's B.F.G. (excellent - narrated by the godly Natasha Richardson (gone too soon, R.I.P.))). Hot Daniel may see it and envision instead a more perfect execution of a system that doesn't place a huge priority on traditional crease-clearers.

[jsb]

Not from my pov.  This was the year to see if Eichel and Reinhart belong,  They do and show signs that they will improve.  Risto was a question mark from the perspective a taking a step forward or a step back at his relatively young age, and he answered the bell.  The ROR deal solidified a tougher to play against team along with McGinn.  Kane was coming back after missing half a season and I thought it would take him until now to get the rust off.  Bogosian was unforatunate as was Kane and Lehner.  But all those moves still left us with Gionta, Weber, Gorges (coming off serious surgery), Moulson as principle pieces.  They are not part of a legit contender in my book so this year was about playing a better system and allowing the young guys to improve.  too many changes to expect that all would click immediately.  I similar draft and offseason this year will have less change and likely a playoff push if not getting in.  I think the timeline started for me when TM was hired so we are just shy of two years. One more is about right in my eyes.

Pretty much agree with what you said except the bolded. To me this has re-started when Blysma was hired.

4 Part project, 1) finalize the tank 2) start the rebuild and re-evaluate talent 3) Make changes needed (draft-trade-free agency) 4) Final tinkering to win big.

 

I've been following this team since my senior year in high school in 1970 so I'm ok with being patient but I want a Cup before I go for good.

Reinhart, Eichel, Risto are the keys, major players ROR-Kane-Bogosian are needed to win big. Hopefully Pysyk and McCabe can become a good 4-5-6 defender, So that leaves 2 Dmen needed, a 1 and a 2 to pair with Risto and Bogosian. Hopefully Ennis will straighten out and Girgenson can also start to show up. That leaves a type A winger to team with Eichel and an overhaul of the 4th line and hopefully McGinn can team with Girgs and Ennis to give them a competent 3rd line moving forward. That adds up to at least 1 major winger and 2 Dmen plus a GTender to get to compete for cupville. Get-er-done GMTM.