LGR4GM Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 MacKinnon's NHLe was 40 points before he knocked in 63. The corrected NHLe would have been 61 points. His point totals also regressed in juniors this past year, down to 1.38PPG. Not sure what's up. But he does have 2 points in 1 AHL game. So he's got that going for him, which is nice. I think he will, as long as he earns his quality opportunities and usage. Sammy played a lot better 2way game and he was on a team that was terrible. That said I am disappointed his ppg total wen down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 How is Jack in the faceoff dot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 How is Jack in the faceoff dot? Unsure but I know it has been something he improved as the year went on in Boston. If I remember right he was in the mid 40% range at the WJC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 How is Jack in the faceoff dot? Excellent. His freakish strength helps. That said can't wait to see his combine numbers, he's gonna blow away McDavid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 I was the guy calling for Physics, and patching together what NHLe I could. (Sorry, Derrico.) It would help if Physics were showing his work, explaining assumptions - or linking to the thread where he already did that. And with apologies to PA: This league is a mess at present in terms of featuring skill and encouraging oh-fence. Based on the equivalency ratios I'd seen, I believe a 60 pt rookie season for Eichel would represent a terrific success in the current climate. A 50 pt season would be more than a solid start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 (edited) Sammy played a lot better 2way game... I had heard that too. I'm enamored by the one-two-three punch of Eichel-Reinhart-Girgensons. Great two way ability. Could be like having three Joe Pavelski's of varying bullishness. I was the guy calling for Physics, and patching together what NHLe I could. (Sorry, Derrico.) I think I missed all this. I just decided to jump in with an NHLe update without knowing I was being summoned. It would help if Physics were showing his work, explaining assumptions - or linking to the thread where he already did that. Apologies, I stealth linked it twice up there somewhere. Here it is explicitly: The first post is here: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/22787-current-carrion-hockey-league-standings/?p=644457 The meaty post with the corrected NHLe method is here: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/22787-current-carrion-hockey-league-standings/page-52?do=findComment&comment=644774 The mathy explainies is here: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/22787-current-carrion-hockey-league-standings/?p=644781 The short version: NHLe averages all players that make the jump from juniors/college/AHL to NHL, but the top draft choices -the best prospects- perform better than that average. It's likely due to a) being better, b) getting better opportunities, linemates, and more ice time, and c) better situational usage for scoring points. The normal NHLe doesn't accurately account for the abnormally elite prospects' rookie years. But if you check back on that link, I proposed a way to correct for that, looking at the history of each of the top five draft picks taken since Crosby. In subsequent posts in that thread, I explained how I came about it and posted some raw data for the interested. If you have any questions, let me know. The method is a little ham-handed compared to some fancy stats, but it does seem to work reasonably well, at least for our fun consideration. Edited April 21, 2015 by IKnowPhysics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 Not sure if this has been posted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 (edited) Excellent. His freakish strength helps. That said can't wait to see his combine numbers, he's gonna blow away McDavid. Not picking on you exclusively, but can this not be a thing? I don't care one bit. Edited April 21, 2015 by Hoss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 (edited) Not sure if this has been posted image.jpg Yeah, he got ###### on. Also reminds me of Will Forte on Conan as the Buffalo-riding Ted Turner: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHZuIETVEIo Edited April 21, 2015 by IKnowPhysics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 Not picking on you exclusively, but can this not be a thing? I don't care one bit. McDavid vs Eichel has been and always will be a thing... There's no escaping it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 Very good SI feature on Eichel. In it, it covers -face-offs -neutral-zone struggles and adjustments -strengths -family/town background -etc. http://www.si.com/nhl/2015/04/08/Jack-Eichel-Boston-University-college-hockey-NHL-Draft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 (edited) Hockey News take on the Sabres, post-lottery: http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/why-buffalos-mcdavid-less-future-is-still-brighter-than-edmontons/ Edited April 21, 2015 by dudacek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerme1 Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 People, you are all keeping me from growing up. I have three kids, including a 10-month old but I still act like a total dork because of hockey and my mature lady friends are like "hockey what"? I live in Scarborough VP and Finch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 This is as excited as I've been since Mogilny-LaFontaine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubkev Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 This is as excited as I've been since Mogilny-LaFontaine Ah, yes. Back when hockey players were allowed to score. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBHockey13 Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 This is as excited as I've been since Mogilny-LaFontaine I'm thinking more LaFontaine - Hawerchuk except I think Eichel will be better than LaFontaine and Reinhart could be as good as Hawerchuk. I think Eichel is a leader and a beast but for some reason I have visions of Reinhart taking a critical last minute faceoff in a late round playoff game in the FNC with the crowd losing their f'ing minds from the excitement. I think he'll be the unsung hero during our Stanley Cup years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 Here is a scenario... Buffalo misses the playoffs next year but is 13th worse and misses by like 3 points. That gives us a 2% chance. Shockingly Buffalo wins the draft lottery and everyone is like, "Man good thing we changed the draft lottery, not" More likely scenario: same premise as you lay out, except Buffalo wins the draw for second pick. Buffalo fans complain that Buffalo is picking #2 again and should have won #1. Well, Buffalo loses again. How can anyone say there isn't a sports curse on Buffalo? Somehow, Edmonton wins 4 out of 6 years, and Buffalo has the best percentage and still can't pull it off. I remember last year on Lottery Day, GMTM intoned...."I want to win something"..... As I said at the time, GMTM best get used to losing if he stays in Buffalo - winning is just not the Buffalo way. Always star-crossed. There it is (I may have missed earlier ones). I've been waiting for someone to bring up "we had the best chance" when the field has by far the best chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skaught Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 (edited) There it is (I may have missed earlier ones). I've been waiting for someone to bring up "we had the best chance" when the field has by far the best chance. Right, but "the field" can't win, an individual team wins and every team is outnumbered by the field. Out of all those teams, the sabres had the best odds. Edited April 21, 2015 by skaught Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JujuFish Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 There've been a lot of Eichel threads, so maybe I missed this question being asked already, but who was the last American prospect to be as highly touted as Eichel? No American has been drafted at 2 or higher since Patrick Kane and JVR went 1-2 in 2007. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 There've been a lot of Eichel threads, so maybe I missed this question being asked already, but who was the last American prospect to be as highly touted as Eichel? No American has been drafted at 2 or higher since Patrick Kane and JVR went 1-2 in 2007. The article posted here on Eichel said he's the most highly-touted American prospect since Bobby Carpenter in 1981 who looked like a Hall of Famer in his first 4/5 years but then suddenly fell off the face of the hockey earth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 I think eichel should be awesome on the point of a powerplay, wicked shot :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 Thanks, IKP! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpandean Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 (edited) Right, but "the field" can't win, an individual team wins and every team is outnumbered by the field. Out of all those teams, the sabres had the best odds. True ... but the Sabres were still playing against the field in this case. For them, it was 20% that they win and pick first vs. 80% chance that the (anyone in the) field wins and they pick second. The Sabres losing was not unusual or unexpected; quite the opposite. In fact, there was a 60% chance of them losing both last year and this year. Now, what the Oilers did was thoroughly unexpected (though, clearly possible.) There was a only 0.5% chance of them winning the four that they did (and that was larger than it would be now due to the first two having the "can't move more than four spots" rule, which gave them a 48.2% chance of retaining the first pick vs. the current 20%.) Even if you look at the last six drafts, there was only a 2% chance of them picking first four times. Edited April 21, 2015 by carpandean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cereal Posted April 21, 2015 Report Share Posted April 21, 2015 How is Jack in the faceoff dot? BU's coach was on WGR this morning and mentioned that Jack worked hard at it this year, since he knew it was a weakness coming into college. Not sure where it is, but: http://www.wgr550.com/BU-Coach-Quinn-Eichel-is-ready-for-NHL/21396006 By the way, coach said he'd not try to convince Jack to stay at BU, since he thinks Jack is NHL-ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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