Trade: Myers, Stafford, Armia, Lemieux, + Low 1st for Kane, Bogosian, and Kasdorf

[...]

You guys are comparing present values to the trade values at the time. We were all down on Stafford on this board and most people were disappointed in Myers. At the time, the values seemed to add up. While I expect GMTM to see into the future on players, I think it's reasonable to say that no one could have foreseen Stafford's current performance with any credibility.

 

Also, part of the value with the Myers trade was jettisoning the Marfan Syndrone talk.

Edited January 7, 2016 by SiZzlEmeIsTEr

[JJFIVEOH]

I guess I'm the only one that doesn't see Bogo playing nearly as bad as some think.

[thewookie1]

I guess I'm the only one that doesn't see Bogo playing nearly as bad as some think.

 

I'm uncertain as to why everyone thinks he's doing terrible. I never believed he'd be an offensive force to much degree, all I want is solid physical D-play and I'll be happy with him.

[Weave]

Nope, this never happens.

 

Cory Hodgman and Zack Morris are in the midst of great careers and this is just one example of a trade where the players included are never forgotten.

 

 

I see what you did there.

[beerme1]

I guess I'm the only one that doesn't see Bogo playing nearly as bad as some think.

 

 

You might be. He's lost his toughness and offensive ability at the same time from what I see. I'm blaming whatever injury and expect him to return to form. But when? He should be a freewheeling monster. Maybe I'm wrong and it's not a recovery and return to form thing. Maybe it's Bylsma and his system? I don't know but Zach has not been impressive this year on both offense and defense.

[#freejame]

Lemieux refusing to sign with us doesn't drop his value to zero. His value is whatever other teams are willing to pay and I'll bet more than one team wanted him (and still would). You'd still be in a position to get good value for him.

Zero was a bit of a hyperbole, but it greatly limited his value. It's the same reason teams are looking to buy low on Drouin, only Drouin is significantly better and has NHL experience already.

 

[shrader]

You guys are comparing present values to the trade values at the time. We were all down on Stafford on this board and most people were disappointed in Myers. At the time, the values seemed to add up. While I expect GMTM to see into the future on players, I think it's reasonable to say that no one could have foreseen Stafford's current performance with any credibility.

 

 

Even that is looking at it too deeply when it comes to Stafford.  He was a pending UFA who was going to be leaving the team at the end of the year.  Nothing more than that needs to be said about him when looking at any trade made.

[Thwomp!]

This is pretty much where I am at, particularly the bolded. That part is significant to me because it was worth taking the swing (even if it results in a miss) because I will be able to stomach what we could lose by doing so. We could very well end up "losing" the trade (although it helping with our tank is nothing to sneeze at), and early returns are it is working out better for the Jets. But Stafford was a pending UFA; the current Stafford is having a decent season, par for the course for him, heading for a mid-40's point finish. Now he is certainly a useful player, but the current Stafford is no longer part of that trade. We traded a rental, he is on a completely new contract now. 

 

Armia doesn't look promising, Lemieux is of a dime-a-dozen ilk, max upside is a bottom-6 player. And we also traded a pick. I can stand losing those things.

 

That brings us to Myers. Good player? Yes. Are the Jets getting the better end of the trade right now because of Myers? Yes. But my view is that I can stomach losing him in order to take the swing that we did. If Myers was a budding star the trade could potentially be one that I would regret, but he seems to be pretty much locked in to what he is at this point: a good, ideally second pairing defenseman. We could end up losing the trade, and I would still be okay with taking the swing that we did, because of what we gave up.

 

Obviously I would rather "win" the trade, and I am not ruling that out, or giving up on Bogosian or Kane. The Jets are getting the better end of the trade right now, and if that's something that doesn't change, it won't be the end of the world.

 

If Murray wasn't the type to make this trade, he probably also wouldn't have been the type to make the O'Reilly trade. And we know how that one is working out. Sometimes, you can't win them all.

 

I disagree with both of the bolded.  Lemieux seems like he could've been the future replacement for the "Concept of Zemgus" if Zemgus continues to under perform.

 

He is 6'1" 209 lbs and adds alot of sandpaper as we all know.  He scores as well as agitates.  2014 in OHL: 57 games  41-19-60.  So far in 2015: 19 games  20-9-29.  Guys that can score, agitate, and have his size are not "dime a dozen".  The asset I hated to lose most was Lemieux in this trade.  I'd be much happier if we could have kept him since he seems like a "Murray type of guy".  Kane has also not shown much, if any, of the physical aspect that he was purported to have either.

 

The O'Reilly trade and the Kane/Bogo trade are completely separate.  Just because the O'Reilly trade has been a good one, it does not make this trade any better or more likely to happen.  I think the O'Reilly trade looked better from the beginning while this one has not looked so good from the start.

 

 

You might be. He's lost his toughness and offensive ability at the same time from what I see. I'm blaming whatever injury and expect him to return to form. But when? He should be a freewheeling monster. Maybe I'm wrong and it's not a recovery and return to form thing. Maybe it's Bylsma and his system? I don't know but Zach has not been impressive this year on both offense and defense.

 

Bogo has not been good this year and has taken a few steps back from what we saw from him last year.

[Derrico]

I feel like this trade will be forgotten by both fan bases 5 years from now, despite how big it felt at the time.

Agreed.  Reminds me of the Kassian for Hodgson trade.  Two, young, highly regarded 1st round picks swapped for each other.  Seemed substantial at the time.  Both end up being busts. 

[dudacek]

Agreed.  Reminds me of the Kassian for Hodgson trade.  Two, young, highly regarded 1st round picks swapped for each other.  Seemed substantial at the time.  Both end up being busts. 

 

Except Hodgson had one season as an NHL regular when the deal was made and Kassian still hasn't established himself as a regular.

Kane, Bogosian and Myers aren't prospects, they are all established NHL players.

[TrueBlueGED]

Except Hodgson had one season as an NHL regular when the deal was made and Kassian still hasn't established himself as a regular.

Kane, Bogosian and Myers aren't prospects, they are all established NHL players.

Yup, and all three are who we (meaning the respective fan bases who watched them for years) thought they were.

[Derrico]

Except Hodgson had one season as an NHL regular when the deal was made and Kassian still hasn't established himself as a regular.

Kane, Bogosian and Myers aren't prospects, they are all established NHL players.

Oh I know.  My point was more that if none of the players end up being true difference makers then it reminds me of that trade as it was pretty hyped by fans and media at the time but overall amounted to very little for both teams.

Edited January 7, 2016 by Derrico

[Thwomp!]

Except Hodgson had one season as an NHL regular when the deal was made and Kassian still hasn't established himself as a regular.

Kane, Bogosian and Myers aren't prospects, they are all established NHL players.

 

Exactly and Kane and Bogo were supposed to speed up the rebuild and fill two important top roles for the Sabres going forward.  Through the first post-tank half season, the results have been disappointing.  These guys are veterans that should be playing better, whether the results, team and/or personal, are there or not.  

 

 

Oh I know.  My point was more that if none of the players end up being true difference makers then it reminds me of that trade as it was pretty hyped by fans and media at the time but overall amounted to very little for both teams.

 

The problem is that we need Kane and Bogo to be difference makers and what we gave up to get them indicates that management thought they would be too.

[nfreeman]

Yup, and all three are who we (meaning the respective fan bases who watched them for years) thought they were.

 

I'll disagree on this.  I don't think the story has been fully written yet on any of them.  In particular, I think any of the 3 could end up distinguishing himself as being clearly the best player in the trade.

[TrueBlueGED]

I'll disagree on this. I don't think the story has been fully written yet on any of them. In particular, I think any of the 3 could end up distinguishing himself as being clearly the best player in the trade.

This could happen, of course, I just generally believe after 6-7 years pro players are who they are. How many players take a developmental leap that deep into their career?

[Ducky]

All the comments dissing Armia and Lemieux wasn't there when they were traded, why now?

 

http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/article/ohl-top-performers-for-december_167333/167333

Lemieux wins player of the month...

 

Armia is playing 4th line and getting a bit of 3rd line time.

Lemieux and Armia were not throw-ins.

 

If you ask me, Myers, Bogo, and Kane are all playing under the expectations.

 

Yes, Staf was an UFA but what were the chances he signed with the Jets if he wasn't traded here first?

[Robviously]

I disagree with both of the bolded.  Lemieux seems like he could've been the future replacement for the "Concept of Zemgus" if Zemgus continues to under perform.

 

He is 6'1" 209 lbs and adds alot of sandpaper as we all know.  He scores as well as agitates.  2014 in OHL: 57 games  41-19-60.  So far in 2015: 19 games  20-9-29.  Guys that can score, agitate, and have his size are not "dime a dozen".  The asset I hated to lose most was Lemieux in this trade.  I'd be much happier if we could have kept him since he seems like a "Murray type of guy".  Kane has also not shown much, if any, of the physical aspect that he was purported to have either.

 

The O'Reilly trade and the Kane/Bogo trade are completely separate.  Just because the O'Reilly trade has been a good one, it does not make this trade any better or more likely to happen.  I think the O'Reilly trade looked better from the beginning while this one has not looked so good from the start.

 

 

 

Bogo has not been good this year and has taken a few steps back from what we saw from him last year.

You and I are on the same page.

[MattPie]

All the comments dissing Armia and Lemieux wasn't there when they were traded, why now?

 

http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/article/ohl-top-performers-for-december_167333/167333

Lemieux wins player of the month...

 

Armia is playing 4th line and getting a bit of 3rd line time.

Lemieux and Armia were not throw-ins.

 

If you ask me, Myers, Bogo, and Kane are all playing under the expectations.

 

Yes, Staf was an UFA but what were the chances he signed with the Jets if he wasn't traded here first?

 

We were being polite. :)

 

In all seriousness, Armia was a first-round pick that never seemed to put it together in the AHL or his very short looks in the NHL. Coming into it fresh, maybe he looks better if you have no history but Buffalo fans were going to be disappointed unless he was skating on the 1st or 2nd line and putting up 15-25 goals. I don't know much about his game or the Jets line-up, is Armia responsible enough to play 3-4 wing? Or are the Jets well-off on RW that Armia is on the 3rd line (at times) because there are two greats ahead of him? We like to joke about Stafford and he is playing well this year, but we all hoped Armia would be well ahead of Staff by now.

 

Lemiuex is in juniors as a 19 year old (right?) in the OHL; numbers in Junior are nice but don't always predict future NHL success, especially when the player is older than most of the guys he's playing against.

Edited January 7, 2016 by MattPie

[Robviously]

All the comments dissing Armia and Lemieux wasn't there when they were traded, why now?

 

http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/article/ohl-top-performers-for-december_167333/167333

Lemieux wins player of the month...

 

Armia is playing 4th line and getting a bit of 3rd line time.

Lemieux and Armia were not throw-ins.

 

If you ask me, Myers, Bogo, and Kane are all playing under the expectations.

 

Yes, Staf was an UFA but what were the chances he signed with the Jets if he wasn't traded here first?

I re-read the first few pages of this thread over the Holidays and it the general vibe seemed to be "Well, we overpaid but at least we're getting something great coming back!" along with a little "Isn't it great that we finally have a GM that makes big trades!"

 

We need more from Kane and Bogo or else this trade was a pretty big dud.

[Ducky]

Staf is [playing LW with Little and Wheeler the last 5 or so games....Ehlers is on the 2nd and Burmistrov on the 4th so Armia is relegated to the 4th.....showing good D smarts.

[shrader]

Yes, Staf was an UFA but what were the chances he signed with the Jets if he wasn't traded here first?

 

That certainly matters from the Winnipeg point of view, but not at all from Buffalo's.  They're never going to regret trading him given that he was leaving anyway.

[Thwomp!]

I re-read the first few pages of this thread over the Holidays and it the general vibe seemed to be "Well, we overpaid but at least we're getting something great coming back!" along with a little "Isn't it great that we finally have a GM that makes big trades!"

 

We need more from Kane and Bogo or else this trade was a pretty big dud.

 

Kane's on pace for 19-12-31 even in he plays in all 42 remaining games  :sick:

 

Bogo is 3-11-14 if he plays in all 42 remaining games  :sick:

 

With the hype and what we gave up to get them, I'm pretty disappointed thus far, especially when these two were supposed to be difference makers, and pieces in the future picture, not just average players.  And they've both had injury problems so even the possibility of 42 games played is a stretch and their stats could very well be lower because of that.

[nfreeman]

This could happen, of course, I just generally believe after 6-7 years pro players are who they are. How many players take a developmental leap that deep into their career?

 

Well, I wouldn't say a big developmental step is what we'd be looking for from Kane -- the question with him is whether he'll be a consistent 25-35 goal guy, or backslide to a 16-20 goal guy. 

 

With Bogo and Myers, though, big steps are still possible.  Defensemen generally take longer to learn the game.  For example, Soupy was still getting healthy-scratched at age 24 and didn't really turn into a high-level player until he was 26. 

 

All the comments dissing Armia and Lemieux wasn't there when they were traded, why now?

 

http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/article/ohl-top-performers-for-december_167333/167333

Lemieux wins player of the month...

 

Armia is playing 4th line and getting a bit of 3rd line time.

Lemieux and Armia were not throw-ins.

 

If you ask me, Myers, Bogo, and Kane are all playing under the expectations.

 

Yes, Staf was an UFA but what were the chances he signed with the Jets if he wasn't traded here first?

 

Fair point on Stafford -- but at the end of the day, he's JAG anyway.

 

I think Lemieux was probably a more valuable chip than Armia and wasn't a throw-in.  Armia probably wasn't quite a throw-in either, but I would doubt that he was an important piece from Chevy's perspective. 

 

I re-read the first few pages of this thread over the Holidays and it the general vibe seemed to be "Well, we overpaid but at least we're getting something great coming back!" along with a little "Isn't it great that we finally have a GM that makes big trades!"

 

We need more from Kane and Bogo or else this trade was a pretty big dud.

 

Yes, although I would describe it as a dud in terms of unmet hopes, rather than a dud in terms of the Sabres getting burned by overpaying. 

 

That certainly matters from the Winnipeg point of view, but not at all from Buffalo's.  They're never going to regret trading him given that he was leaving anyway.

 

The Sabres also weren't going to get much for Stafford in any case.  He was JAG as I mentioned above, and there wasn't much of a bidding frenzy at the deadline last year -- e.g. Vanek, a much more valuable commodity, only returned a 2nd-rounder and an average prospect in trade.

[Ducky]

JAG? Sorry, not sure what this is...

Chevy wanted and valued Armia higher than Lemieux and his ceiling is higher than Lemieux's.

[Eleven]

JAG? Sorry, not sure what this is...

Chevy wanted and valued Armia higher than Lemieux and his ceiling is higher than Lemieux's.

 

Just Another Guy.  I.e., nothing special.