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Buffalo Bills 2015


Taro T

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I'm enjoying the guy calling him out on not being able to tell. He's right: every other athlete knows immediately when the equipment they've been using their whole life is different. I remember when the NBA went towards different balls for a bit; the players lost their mind saying how different it was.

 

Brady's preference on balls.

 

"Some guys like'em round, some guys like'em thin, some guys like'em new...old...everyone's got a preference on balls."

 

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Except he all but admitted it.

No, no. He admitted nothing of the sort. He merely stated that he likes the balls to go through a specific procedure and then have ABSOLUTELY NO VARIATION FROM THAT PROCEDURE. How could he possibly be expected to realize the balls had been modified at halftime? They seemed EXACTLY the same as they had prior to the half. Which is why it was so shocking that they scored 100 or so points after halftime when the weather got bad.

 

Totally schadenfreude, but it is REALLY cool that these idiots thought they needed to cheat to beat the ####ing Colts. Now, every single cold weather win in Foxboro is in question. Even though only a handful if that SHOULD be in question.

 

Hey, St.Doug, ever wonder why Marcia couldn't hit the broad side of a barn against you? Couldn't of had anything to do with no need to win which equalled no need to cheat, could it? Have fun coaching Jax' O-line.

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Here's the link:

 

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=2932

 

And here's the line that helps sum it up:

Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances.

Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, it’s very unlikely that it’s a coincidence.

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Anyone see the sharpsports (or something) analysis of NE's dumb-foundingly low level of fumbling since 2007?

 

I will try to post a link later. The piece further supports what Brady's evasiveness suggested: The Pats didn't stop cheating after spygate.

 

The question, of course, is why. As a Patriots hater, I'm more than happy to gleefully walk around saying the Pats cheated every game since Spygate...but as someone who cares about responsible data use, we can't just assume this was because of deflated balls. Maybe they changed the "scuff-up" process the balls go through and that led to a decline. Maybe they developed some kind of refined technique for holding the ball. Maybe their play selection does a better job of getting players in space so they don't get gang tackled as frequently and have random fumbles.

 

That all said...they've totally been cheating since Spygate :)

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The question, of course, is why. As a Patriots hater, I'm more than happy to gleefully walk around saying the Pats cheated every game since Spygate...but as someone who cares about responsible data use, we can't just assume this was because of deflated balls. Maybe they changed the "scuff-up" process the balls go through and that led to a decline. Maybe they developed some kind of refined technique for holding the ball. Maybe their play selection does a better job of getting players in space so they don't get gang tackled as frequently and have random fumbles.

 

That all said...they've totally been cheating since Spygate :)

 

I agree that one can't jump directly from the statistical improbability of their fumbling-rate to an inference that they deflate their balls. But, man -- it certainly doesn't look good given what came to pass this week.

 

And I loved how people were live-Tweeting Brady's press conference with pictures of Nathan Thurm

 

thurm.jpg

 

Seriously. This is not data-driven at all, but: Brady's performance was ghastly.

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I agree that one can't jump directly from the statistical improbability of their fumbling-rate to an inference that they deflate their balls. But, man -- it certainly doesn't look good given what came to pass this week.

 

And I loved how people were live-Tweeting Brady's press conference with pictures of Nathan Thurm

 

thurm.jpg

 

Seriously. This is not data-driven at all, but: Brady's performance was ghastly.

 

The performance itself, sure. But shouldn't we be at least somewhat grateful for all of the Brady and ball-related jokes the NY tabloids are putting out?

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He spent the entire time saying that their preparation and the weather is what did it.

Said that he is done with the issue for a long time... Laughing at the NFL's investigation because he knows nothing is going to happen...

 

More importantly he said "I've felt dozens of falls over the last week." Guess we'll see how a jealous Brady plays.

Edited by Tank
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If they don't give a ######, I can't imagine the reason for this presser. Just wait for the NFL's investigation to come back inconclusive.

That presser was all about plausible deniability... For the Patriots/Belichick AND the NFL. Belichick can try to sound like he spent a lot of time learning and looking into it (no, he didnt) and the NFL can say that they never found any evidence and that the Pats did everything they were asked to do in the investigation.

 

In the end, the Patriots will be rewarded with an extra first round pick for being so helpful.

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That presser was all about plausible deniability... For the Patriots/Belichick AND the NFL. Belichick can try to sound like he spent a lot of time learning and looking into it (no, he didnt) and the NFL can say that they never found any evidence and that the Pats did everything they were asked to do in the investigation.

 

In the end, the Patriots will be rewarded with an extra first round pick for being so helpful.

 

Belichik's main problem is that somehow between Thursday (I don't understand this stuff) and today at 3pm, he became an expert. 

 

This is all so bullish.

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This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a VERY SPECIFIC REASON to revive this one.

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